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Charlton2005
05 Apr 11 20:44
Joined:
Date Joined: 25 Aug 05
| Topic/replies: 28,673 | Blogger: Charlton2005's blog
Hi Gents

Haven't seen many races as clearcut as the national this year. Normally the ratings are spectacularly compressed, e.g 40 horses in the space of 7 lbs. This year only 5 can win at the weights.

Silver
Arbor
Quinz
WAF
Grand Slam

TMC is 10 lbs off with Arbor (I'll guess 35 lengths over 4.4 miles)
Bluesea is a mare. Has a mare ever won the national? + about 15 lbs out at the weights.

Quinz is 7 so I won't go mad on him. SBN is the highest rated and my main bet. Arbor was 400/1 with 4f to run against TMC and then 1/1 with 1f to go. Can't go unbacked especially after last year. WAF the obvious one, but price shortish now. Trust Trev to get 25's! Grand Slam I don't know but will back anyway.

Any thoughts?Happy
Pause Switch to Standard View Calling Trev, Plat, Sat Crew
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Report trev w April 5, 2011 8:56 PM BST
c2[;)] you well?
Report trev w April 5, 2011 8:56 PM BST
[;)]
Report trev w April 5, 2011 8:57 PM BST
there was a wink supposed to be a wink inthereShocked
Report Charlton2005 April 5, 2011 9:02 PM BST
Yeah, good thanks, you?

I saw you like TMC and WAF (25/1!) and Plat likes Chief Dan. I must say I am very confident the winner comes from one of the 5 above. Going to back them all and lay them at 3.5 IR to break even and if one wins I'll be happy.

Just starting to find my stride with the betting again although have had a few stupid football bets which have stuffed me. Burton Albion coming back from 2/1 down with 5 mins to go against I cannot even remember who last week  :(
Report Charlton2005 April 5, 2011 9:04 PM BST
How is Earl btw, I don't see him on here. Is he only on purple?
Report trev w April 5, 2011 9:12 PM BST
obv. i like waf
quinz..got decent rh form...not sure of the strength of rac post he won.   
sbn...well in..will he be able to keep tabs on the leaders on this ground..put in an in running bet @ big odds maybe if he gets behind         
GSH..just not sure he's good enough really...trainers son not on from 3 choices does'nt bode well.
arbour supreme...yeah def. included..think he will run a big race..i think he was going well enough last yr when falling...a lot dont agree.

nice pull with the fav...although tmc did idle a bit i think in the bobby jo...and went away as arb. came to him.
think oscars from that race will come on a ton aswell...sam was there to get round on him...and never asked much of him imo.
Report downallstar April 5, 2011 9:13 PM BST
C2Cool
Arbor backed hereCool
NA too nrnb and small bit 110 on here
Tidal Bay @ 150sMischief
Vic Venturi @ 95s
Our Monty @ 66s e/w
BICS @38s saver
Report Charlton2005 April 5, 2011 9:22 PM BST
Thanks Trev
Think I'll make WAF a bit stronger and Arbor too. I back him against TMC before the race at about 40's and could not understand why he was ever 400. He was at the back but only 10 lengths off the lead. I was going to go in at 400 and lay off but wasnt quick enough. I'm not sure HE wasnt ridden to get round and was going so well the jock stuck him in the race because if he didnt he would have been warned off! If he comes on for that he will be TMC by 100 lengths.

DAS!! Thinking of you the other day when I was in the garden and uncovered more of that damn black pipe that I thought was electrical!!! You seem to be doing just as well as ever with your bets. Looking forward to summer I bet.

:)
Report Charlton2005 April 5, 2011 9:22 PM BST
*beat TMC*
Report Charlton2005 April 5, 2011 9:29 PM BST
Trev, Das - Is 1/1 a fair price for Frankel for the 2000?
Report downallstar April 5, 2011 9:30 PM BST
That bloody pipeLaugh

You back for a while now, or a flying visit?
Report Charlton2005 April 5, 2011 9:35 PM BST
Been betting for a few months, so back for good. But I don't see the old Sat crew threads anymore. :(
Report trev w April 5, 2011 9:36 PM BST
rarely touch anything @ that price...let alone 3 yr olds after the winter...

i've got him @ 14s for the derby...and will just watch how things pan out..
Report Charlton2005 April 5, 2011 9:37 PM BST
I can't remember who it was but in a race (I think in Ireland) where I think Denman was favourite a 20/1 with Richard Johnson won. I backed it beacuse you made some good argument for it? Am I remembering correctly?
Report downallstar April 5, 2011 9:46 PM BST
^
That was me, trev & plat, Punchestown GC last yrGrin
Report trev w April 5, 2011 9:47 PM BST
planet of sound?
Report trev w April 5, 2011 9:51 PM BST
tnx das...but not me...nib or fft i reckon
Report Charlton2005 April 5, 2011 9:51 PM BST
POS, yes, very nice!
Where can we back WAF to start fav for the national?
Report trev w April 5, 2011 9:59 PM BST
4/1 with goat & 365...7/2 elsewhere
Report Charlton2005 April 5, 2011 10:00 PM BST
thanks trev
Report sintonian April 5, 2011 11:19 PM BST
im all over West End Rocker personally, C2. Amazing price at 55/1 on here.
Report sintonian April 5, 2011 11:28 PM BST
For what it's worth ..

sintonian Date Joined: 21 Sep 04
Add contact | Send message When: 05 Apr 11 09:35 Joined: Date Joined: 21 Sep 04 | Topic/replies: 12,115 | Blogger: sintonian's blog
RF, check out the form of his win at Newbury this season! The second horse, Cornish Sett, won his next race. WER was conceding him 11lb. The 3rd horse home, Nicto De Beauchene, had an upgrade in stable to Victor Dartnall and won his next race by 16 lengths around Sandown. He was put up a stone. WER conceded him 4lb.

So why has WER only gone up 12lb for two wins ? Because he only does enough to win. It sounds like a cliche, but it's fact. In his career he has only ever won by more than 4 lengths once, and that was in a 3 runner field. If he takes to the fences, and there is no reason he wont like the track given he has won on flat left-handed tracks, then he could go very close with 10st5lb imo. It's not like he is some rag from a poor yard. He is trained by King and ridden by Choc.
Report Far From Trouble April 5, 2011 11:45 PM BST
downy ya cooont Laugh

PoS was all me, CV can back me up (I hope Mischief )

You just mentioned some stuff about him choking, I made the case for him Silly



C2 - The Midnight Club's best form (imo) has come with good in the going description. It sounds odd of me to say that considering he hasn't won in those conditions, but twice placed in grade 1s once at the festival and once at Punchestown. I think he'll improve for better ground and virtually every time he runs he looks as though he is crying out for an extreme trip. I'd fancy him to confirm placings with Arbor Supreme in this race, obviously a major chance. (my 54/1 might be swaying me here Silly )


THAT SAID, if the same What A Friend turns up that ran in the Gold Cup and has recovered from those exertions, he is as close as you can get to a penalty kick in a Grand National. Smacks of Rough Quest to me



Quinz is too young, Silver By Nature won't get his ground, Grand Slam Hero is sh it

hth Blush
Report downallstar April 6, 2011 9:58 AM BST
PoS was me, plat any someone else the day before last yr fft.
Think it was Earl.

Just because you were following the horse blind over a cliff doesn't count. Devil
Report sintonian April 6, 2011 10:21 AM BST
plat backed War of Attrition in that race imo,iirc.
Report downallstar April 6, 2011 11:51 AM BST
Must have been just me! Dunno why I gave them dc's any credit. DevilCool
Report Far From Trouble April 6, 2011 12:07 PM BST
downallstar in denial, sad turn of events Sad
Report downallstar April 6, 2011 12:12 PM BST
Now now fft, sour grapes will get you knowhere!
Not my fault you were backing PoS over 2miles & 20f on Hvy ground, when I smashed into him at 22/1 over 3miles and on Good gnd.
Report Far From Trouble April 6, 2011 12:14 PM BST
fk off Laugh
Report downallstar April 6, 2011 12:15 PM BST
Laugh
Report Dark Destroyer April 6, 2011 1:10 PM BST
Far From Trouble

"THAT SAID, if the same What A Friend turns up that ran in the Gold Cup and has recovered from those exertions, he is as close as you can get to a penalty kick in a Grand National. Smacks of Rough Quest to me".


Unfortunately for every Rough Quest there is also a Garrison fecking Savannah Cry
Report Charlton2005 April 6, 2011 7:41 PM BST
Hey FFT, DD

FFT I think it was the chocking argument actually, so I think the kudos (from me anyway!) go to Das. :)

As the tipster of last years winner of this race at 33/1, you get your fair share of attention! Thanks for your comments. It looks like you and Trev are both happiest with WAF and AS. GL with them both.

:)
Report downallstar April 6, 2011 8:06 PM BST
Evening C2, what ye fancy 2mw?
AndBlush
Report Charlton2005 April 6, 2011 8:13 PM BST
Hey Das  :)

Nothing too clever here. Just laid Zarkandar, BB and Denman. My experience of this meeting is that the ratings don't work as well as they do generally. I always thought that was because of Cheltenham hangovers so happy to take on any favourite really. What are you backing?
Report downallstar April 6, 2011 8:26 PM BST
Bets so far...

2.00 Carlito Brigante 1pt e/w @ 10/1 (1/5 1-2-3) Totesport
2.00 Grand Crus 1pt e/w @ 4/1 (1/4 1-2-3) Lads
2.30 Grandouet 1pt e/w @ 4/1 (1/4 1-2-3) Lads
4.50 Medermit 2pts win @ 5/2 gp Bet365
5.25 Bothy 1/2pt e/w @ 11/1 (1/4 1-2-3-4) gp Bet365


Devil
Report grade 1 April 6, 2011 8:47 PM BST
Just laid Zarkandar, BB and Denman.

Normally I would agree but spooked by lack of opposition and lighter campaigns. 2mrw could be a rubyfest but giving punchy one very last chance.

A Paul Jones tweet to ponder

sportspunter01 Paul Jones
Aintree Festival stat to ponder. From 2002 onwards Jonjo O'Neill has trained 11 winners in the 5 handicaps over 2m4f+. The little tinker.
Report Charlton2005 April 6, 2011 9:03 PM BST
GL Das, if yours win, mine will lose!!

Thanks Gr1, something to look out for.
Report trev w April 6, 2011 9:21 PM BST
c2...i have done yours in a win trebleLaugh
Report trev w April 6, 2011 9:22 PM BST
before you posted....i'm not taking the pi$$Mischief
Report sintonian April 6, 2011 9:33 PM BST
think that is the best value trev rather than backing singles imo.

Das, you've not got enough bets tomorrow lightweight Laugh
Report Charlton2005 April 6, 2011 9:35 PM BST
c2...i have done yours in a win trebleLaugh

:)

Luckily I haven't laid the treble!

GL to you though!
Report Charlton2005 April 6, 2011 9:36 PM BST
But Trev, further up you're telling me you don't often go near 1/1 shots!!

I am laying Frankel btw but wondered whether you thought the price was right or not.
Report downallstar April 6, 2011 9:43 PM BST
Sint - thats only for starters, and you should see CVB'sLaugh
Report trev w April 6, 2011 9:58 PM BST
not as singles mate i dont...

but the treble pays about 6s....and did'nt really want to take them on

evens is prob right based on the form book...but the winters a long time....and we are just not in a position to know just how well the 2yr olds have trained on...on that basis the price is wrong...

if that makes any sense
Report Charlton2005 April 6, 2011 9:59 PM BST
Makes sense to me  :)

GL with the treble.

How is your brother?
Report trev w April 6, 2011 10:00 PM BST
very well mate tnx
Report Far From Trouble April 6, 2011 11:31 PM BST
C", I have not backed Arbor Supreme fyi, i'm on the Midnight Club [;)]

p.s. I had Don't Push It at 40/1, not 33s Silly
Report Charlton2005 April 6, 2011 11:40 PM BST
Hey FFT, apologies, I misread your bit about 54/1. I thought that was AS not TMC, but you obviously have TMC at 54's. Not bad either! And sorry again about DPI, 40's!!

Happy

BTW, how does one look up old threads like the one you brought up about POS? Thanks
Report Charlton2005 April 7, 2011 2:24 PM BST
That's the last time I lay that horse. Wow!
Report downallstar April 7, 2011 2:32 PM BST
He was awesome C2.
Report downallstar April 7, 2011 2:51 PM BST
Fkn GeraghtyCry
Report toffeeboy April 7, 2011 3:20 PM BST
Ended up backing denman, caroles and nacarat in that race, but gutted for Denman.  End of the road.
Report Charlton2005 April 7, 2011 3:53 PM BST
He was Das, what an easy win!!
Denman must have had some effects of the gold cup. On that WAF cannot possibly win the GN.
Report Earl.E.Byrd April 9, 2011 8:46 AM BST
C2

Trev told me you were back how are mate ? Good to see you back never on here now so get ya backside on the Purple .

Off racing today think Hamool at Lingers is a mahooosive price today good luckers today talk soon .
Report platinni April 9, 2011 10:44 AM BST
Re: POS

I put him up early doors and got switched on the day to WOA [>o]
Report Charlton2005 April 9, 2011 11:51 AM BST
Cheers Earl and Plat

GL to all today.
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