Horse Antepost
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05 Apr 11
20:44
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Date Joined:
25 Aug 05
Hi Gents
Haven't seen many races as clearcut as the national this year. Normally the ratings are spectacularly compressed, e.g 40 horses in the space of 7 lbs. This year only 5 can win at the weights.
Silver
Arbor
Quinz
WAF
Grand Slam
TMC is 10 lbs off with Arbor (I'll guess 35 lengths over 4.4 miles)
Bluesea is a mare. Has a mare ever won the national? + about 15 lbs out at the weights.
Quinz is 7 so I won't go mad on him. SBN is the highest rated and my main bet. Arbor was 400/1 with 4f to run against TMC and then 1/1 with 1f to go. Can't go unbacked especially after last year. WAF the obvious one, but price shortish now. Trust Trev to get 25's! Grand Slam I don't know but will back anyway.
Any thoughts?
Haven't seen many races as clearcut as the national this year. Normally the ratings are spectacularly compressed, e.g 40 horses in the space of 7 lbs. This year only 5 can win at the weights.
Silver
Arbor
Quinz
WAF
Grand Slam
TMC is 10 lbs off with Arbor (I'll guess 35 lengths over 4.4 miles)
Bluesea is a mare. Has a mare ever won the national? + about 15 lbs out at the weights.
Quinz is 7 so I won't go mad on him. SBN is the highest rated and my main bet. Arbor was 400/1 with 4f to run against TMC and then 1/1 with 1f to go. Can't go unbacked especially after last year. WAF the obvious one, but price shortish now. Trust Trev to get 25's! Grand Slam I don't know but will back anyway.
Any thoughts?
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Replies: 56
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c2[;)] you well?
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[;)]
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there was a wink supposed to be a wink inthere
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Yeah, good thanks, you?
I saw you like TMC and WAF (25/1!) and Plat likes Chief Dan. I must say I am very confident the winner comes from one of the 5 above. Going to back them all and lay them at 3.5 IR to break even and if one wins I'll be happy. Just starting to find my stride with the betting again although have had a few stupid football bets which have stuffed me. Burton Albion coming back from 2/1 down with 5 mins to go against I cannot even remember who last week :( |
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How is Earl btw, I don't see him on here. Is he only on purple?
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obv. i like waf
quinz..got decent rh form...not sure of the strength of rac post he won. sbn...well in..will he be able to keep tabs on the leaders on this ground..put in an in running bet @ big odds maybe if he gets behind GSH..just not sure he's good enough really...trainers son not on from 3 choices does'nt bode well. arbour supreme...yeah def. included..think he will run a big race..i think he was going well enough last yr when falling...a lot dont agree. nice pull with the fav...although tmc did idle a bit i think in the bobby jo...and went away as arb. came to him. think oscars from that race will come on a ton aswell...sam was there to get round on him...and never asked much of him imo. |
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C2
 Arbor backed here NA too nrnb and small bit 110 on here Tidal Bay @ 150s  Vic Venturi @ 95s Our Monty @ 66s e/w BICS @38s saver |
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Thanks Trev
Think I'll make WAF a bit stronger and Arbor too. I back him against TMC before the race at about 40's and could not understand why he was ever 400. He was at the back but only 10 lengths off the lead. I was going to go in at 400 and lay off but wasnt quick enough. I'm not sure HE wasnt ridden to get round and was going so well the jock stuck him in the race because if he didnt he would have been warned off! If he comes on for that he will be TMC by 100 lengths. DAS!! Thinking of you the other day when I was in the garden and uncovered more of that damn black pipe that I thought was electrical!!! You seem to be doing just as well as ever with your bets. Looking forward to summer I bet. :) |
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*beat TMC*
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Trev, Das - Is 1/1 a fair price for Frankel for the 2000?
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That bloody pipe
 You back for a while now, or a flying visit? |
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Been betting for a few months, so back for good. But I don't see the old Sat crew threads anymore. :(
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rarely touch anything @ that price...let alone 3 yr olds after the winter...
i've got him @ 14s for the derby...and will just watch how things pan out.. |
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I can't remember who it was but in a race (I think in Ireland) where I think Denman was favourite a 20/1 with Richard Johnson won. I backed it beacuse you made some good argument for it? Am I remembering correctly?
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^
That was me, trev & plat, Punchestown GC last yr  |
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planet of sound?
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tnx das...but not me...nib or fft i reckon
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POS, yes, very nice!
Where can we back WAF to start fav for the national? |
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4/1 with goat & 365...7/2 elsewhere
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thanks trev
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im all over West End Rocker personally, C2. Amazing price at 55/1 on here.
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For what it's worth ..
sintonian Date Joined: 21 Sep 04 Add contact | Send message When: 05 Apr 11 09:35 Joined: Date Joined: 21 Sep 04 | Topic/replies: 12,115 | Blogger: sintonian's blog RF, check out the form of his win at Newbury this season! The second horse, Cornish Sett, won his next race. WER was conceding him 11lb. The 3rd horse home, Nicto De Beauchene, had an upgrade in stable to Victor Dartnall and won his next race by 16 lengths around Sandown. He was put up a stone. WER conceded him 4lb. So why has WER only gone up 12lb for two wins ? Because he only does enough to win. It sounds like a cliche, but it's fact. In his career he has only ever won by more than 4 lengths once, and that was in a 3 runner field. If he takes to the fences, and there is no reason he wont like the track given he has won on flat left-handed tracks, then he could go very close with 10st5lb imo. It's not like he is some rag from a poor yard. He is trained by King and ridden by Choc. |
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downy ya cooont
PoS was all me, CV can back me up (I hope )You just mentioned some stuff about him choking, I made the case for him  C2 - The Midnight Club's best form (imo) has come with good in the going description. It sounds odd of me to say that considering he hasn't won in those conditions, but twice placed in grade 1s once at the festival and once at Punchestown. I think he'll improve for better ground and virtually every time he runs he looks as though he is crying out for an extreme trip. I'd fancy him to confirm placings with Arbor Supreme in this race, obviously a major chance. (my 54/1 might be swaying me here )THAT SAID, if the same What A Friend turns up that ran in the Gold Cup and has recovered from those exertions, he is as close as you can get to a penalty kick in a Grand National. Smacks of Rough Quest to me Quinz is too young, Silver By Nature won't get his ground, Grand Slam Hero is sh it hth  |
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PoS was me, plat any someone else the day before last yr fft.
Think it was Earl. Just because you were following the horse blind over a cliff doesn't count.  |
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plat backed War of Attrition in that race imo,iirc.
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Must have been just me! Dunno why I gave them dc's any credit.
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downallstar in denial, sad turn of events
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Now now fft, sour grapes will get you knowhere!
Not my fault you were backing PoS over 2miles & 20f on Hvy ground, when I smashed into him at 22/1 over 3miles and on Good gnd. |
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fk off
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Far From Trouble
"THAT SAID, if the same What A Friend turns up that ran in the Gold Cup and has recovered from those exertions, he is as close as you can get to a penalty kick in a Grand National. Smacks of Rough Quest to me". Unfortunately for every Rough Quest there is also a Garrison fecking Savannah  |
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Hey FFT, DD
FFT I think it was the chocking argument actually, so I think the kudos (from me anyway!) go to Das. :) As the tipster of last years winner of this race at 33/1, you get your fair share of attention! Thanks for your comments. It looks like you and Trev are both happiest with WAF and AS. GL with them both. :) |
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Evening C2, what ye fancy 2mw?
And |
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Hey Das :)
Nothing too clever here. Just laid Zarkandar, BB and Denman. My experience of this meeting is that the ratings don't work as well as they do generally. I always thought that was because of Cheltenham hangovers so happy to take on any favourite really. What are you backing? |
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Bets so far...
2.00 Carlito Brigante 1pt e/w @ 10/1 (1/5 1-2-3) Totesport 2.00 Grand Crus 1pt e/w @ 4/1 (1/4 1-2-3) Lads 2.30 Grandouet 1pt e/w @ 4/1 (1/4 1-2-3) Lads 4.50 Medermit 2pts win @ 5/2 gp Bet365 5.25 Bothy 1/2pt e/w @ 11/1 (1/4 1-2-3-4) gp Bet365 |
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Just laid Zarkandar, BB and Denman.
Normally I would agree but spooked by lack of opposition and lighter campaigns. 2mrw could be a rubyfest but giving punchy one very last chance. A Paul Jones tweet to ponder sportspunter01 Paul Jones Aintree Festival stat to ponder. From 2002 onwards Jonjo O'Neill has trained 11 winners in the 5 handicaps over 2m4f+. The little tinker. |
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GL Das, if yours win, mine will lose!!
Thanks Gr1, something to look out for. |
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c2...i have done yours in a win treble
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before you posted....i'm not taking the pi$$
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