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Value King
02 Apr 11 17:19
Joined:
Date Joined: 18 May 08
| Topic/replies: 279 | Blogger: Value King's blog
COLONEL MAK
Excellent winner of the Ayr Silver Cup at the backend of last season but starts this campaign on elevated mark as a result. Apprentice on top to counteract that but often takes a while for season to get going.       

HOOF IT
Improved late on last season to win here at Doncaster under Fallon; that man on board again and should be improvement to come being lightly raced. All handicap wins have been over the minimum however.       

WAFFLE
Interesting recruit for the Barron yard now in the colours of O'Kane (Hitchens owner) after leaving the Noseda camp. Talented at two and lightly raced; he's run well in handicaps here before and the extra furlong should suit.       

OSTEOPATHIC REMEDY
Dropping back in distance and starting off on his highest mark to date leaves the impression that it's a watching brief for the time being. Others better treated.       

JOHANNES
Excellent servant for the Fahey yard and contested every top sprint handicap you can think of last season. Only 1lb higher than when winning in May and has scored on debut for the past two campaigns. Jockey two from three on him and has a good draw.   

HORSERADISH
Excellent strike rate; only finished out of the first three once in ten starts and gets on well with Hayley Turner. Shown liking for track when scoring here in November and easy to make a case for off just 3lbs higher. Ground slight worry.       

QUEST FOR SUCCESS
Another from the Fahey yard that contested some tough handicaps last term and the choice of Paul Hanagan. Starts this season on same mark as his last handicap success, which was here, and plausible to see a decent run. Not best on seasonal debut though.        
MEDICEAN MAN
Solid win at Ascot last May and good pipe opener on the AW three weeks ago should put him spot on for this. Whether he quite has the class of some of these remains to be seen; but he has the mark to back up his talent now.       

PARISIAN PYRAMID
His Sky Bet Dash form off 1lb higher puts him bang in contention for this and he was a likeable front runner last season. Did take a while to get going though and maybe worth following after a run or two. Should take them along nicely.       

FRATELLINO
Bitty campaign last season and reappearance run on the AW did little to inspire confidence. Should strip fitter for that outing but remains on a high enough mark at present.       

JOE PACKET
Another who might just struggle for a while off this sort of mark after being raised 7lbs for disposing of Cheveton last September at Sandown. Poor comeback effort on the AW and, again, others preferred.       

FLIPANDO
Should be fit from the AW and clearly has talent despite now being a ten year old. Back down to same mark as when winning at Epsom on Derby day and ground no issue. Worry is a young improver will sweep past him.       

OUR JOHNATHAN
Better than the bare form when staying on well to finish seventh here on final start last term over 5f; should be suited by the extra furlong and chances are he's likely to be better at four. Spencer booking interesting.       

BABY STRANGE
A gallant grey and one who often runs well here; albeit with Franny Norton on top. Today’s jockey won on him last week at Wolverhampton but has been outclassed in this grade before.       

WILDCAT WIZARD
Not won for three years now but starts turf life for Dandy Nicholls now and no surprise to see the sprint maestro uncover his undoubted talent; perhaps on another day though.       

NASRI
Bought by the shrewd Dab Hand Racing syndicate and placed with Dandy for the start of his five year old campaign; he looks a good buy. Two year old form behind Donativum rock solid and should pick up a handicap or two after blowing the cobwebs away today.       
KELLYS EYE
Fair form in decent handicaps last season and very good apprentice takes 5lbs off today to aid his cause. Whether quite up to this class just yet is hard to know and others offer more obvious appeal.       

LAYLA’S HERO
Another Dr Koukash runner and a transfer back to the Nicholls camp might prove to be a wise move. Bitty three-year-old campaign but a listed winner twice at two; there is no doubting his class. Queally a good booking and potential for a decent run.       

LUTINE BELL
Unlikely to trouble the judge in a race of this calibre. Decent form in small track handicaps last term but this a much more sterner test of his abilities.       

HOTHAMA
winner twice last season and string of duck eggs has brought him back to last winning mark. Certainly has the ability if spot on but likely he will need the run. Fifth in this last year though.       

ESPRIT DE MIDAS
Solid performer when dropped back to this trip last term but won't enjoy the faster underfoot conditions should they transpire and may need a run or two off this mark.       

ADVANCED
Grand old horse that has served connections well over the years. Gets on with Amy Ryan and has the ability in the locker; whether he has lost his love for the game remains to be seen, but dropped to his lowest ever mark now.       



SUMARRY

Once again this first good quality turf sprint handicap of the season is trickier to solve than a sudoku puzzle and crossword mixed into one. There appears to be little in the way of a draw bias and there are few interesting contenders combined with some tough handicappers of years gone by. So if this is anything to go by it should be a great season ahead in the sprinting game. Both Hoof It and Waffle have form with each other from the end of last season and they should be closely matched again. Waffle is interesting in that he has shown plenty of talent over 5f in handicaps when staying on; so the extra furlong should be a blessing. He’s joined the Barron yard and Silvestre De Sousa rides the track particularly well. Reservations surrounding the quicker than ideal ground are the worry. Paul Hanagan presumably had the pick of the Fahey pair but may have gone for the wrong one as Quest For Success often takes a while to come to hand, whereas stablemate JOHANNES has struck on debut for the past two seasons. Tony Hamilton gets on really well with the latter and his liking for the quicker surface could be a plus, coupled with being only 1lb higher than his winning debut mark last season. Horseradish and Hayley Turner would be an obvious choice were it riding soft; but two others that are eye catching are the Dr Koukash runners Our Johnathan and Layla’s Hero. The former is the type to do well this term and Spencer is in terrific form of late, while the latter has rejoined Dandy where he enjoyed plenty of success as a two year old (five wins from eight starts). He has dropped to an attractive mark now after being fruitless while with David Simcock at three and has a course win to his name. Interestingly Queally has three wins from three rides for Dandy since 2009.


SELECTIONS

Johannes 1pt ew @ 22/1
Our Johnathan 0.5pt ew @ 14/1
Layla’s Hero 0.5pt ew @ 18/1
Pause Switch to Standard View Donactser 15:55 6f Handicap 3rd April...
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Report Terry Venables April 2, 2011 6:17 PM BST
VK

Good to see you back!

Agree with OJ E/W

Taken a "punt" on Nasri E/W 33/1

GL and all the best for the coming season
Report Terry Venables April 2, 2011 6:19 PM BST
Waffle should win races this season
Report sintonian April 2, 2011 7:10 PM BST
Alright chaps. Ready to make a fortune this season ? Blush

Will read your preview later VK just watching Arsenal at the moment CryCry
Report Far From Trouble April 2, 2011 7:13 PM BST
good luck with this again VK Happy

Like Nasri here
Report sintonian April 2, 2011 7:17 PM BST
top price on Our J is 10/1 already!!
Report Value King April 2, 2011 7:52 PM BST
Nice to see you again TV, Sint and FFT Happy

With the dodgy ground on show it might be a toughy this one. But the season is long and will hopefully prove profitable. I'm off to my first Guineas Festival in a few weeks so that should be a good laugh and I'm looking forward to the sprint there on the Sunday.

Really good to see the flat back and it's game on!

On a side note, it hasn't gotten off to the best of starts. I held an ante post ticket on Taqleed at 120/1 thanks to a mistake on the Billies website back in February when it should have been 12/1. I saw it backed down to 7/2 and then Gosden takes it out an hour before the gates fly open. Gutted. Let's get these sprints started!
Report Stake & Chips April 2, 2011 8:40 PM BST
Agree on Johannes... 22/1 looks massive to me Shocked
Report town moor April 2, 2011 9:14 PM BST
Good thread VK, I really fancy our jonathan though.
Report sintonian April 2, 2011 10:25 PM BST
whats the concensus on the draw .. do we think there is a bias ?
Report sintonian April 2, 2011 10:39 PM BST
think I will give this one a swerve actually.

Medicean Man would be my pick provided the ground gets no faster than Good ,as he has bombed out on all three runs on GF.
Report town moor April 2, 2011 10:49 PM BST
Sint the ground is already faster than good (just a bit) look at the times of the two straight mile races today (using Zilzal's formula on the clerkwatch thread). There is no draw bias in my opinion
Report sintonian April 2, 2011 11:14 PM BST
Ok cheers.

I am not sure there is a draw bias either tbh.
Report cruise d April 3, 2011 12:33 PM BST
Nice one VK.

I'm on two that you were reasonably positive about Parisian Pyramid and Johannes. Well drawn and look excellent value to me.
Report Beryl April 3, 2011 12:50 PM BST
Great write up VK.

I've had a few quid on Our Jonathan.

GL
Report Terry Venables April 3, 2011 3:58 PM BST
Great run by Waffle saying on

Place money gained on OJ
Report sintonian April 3, 2011 4:57 PM BST
aye agreed. Horseradish very progressive and excellent win strikerate. Mind you, if Hayley Turner was on me i'd be going like the clappers too!
Report Value King April 3, 2011 5:31 PM BST
Yes not a bad start to the sprint campaign there. Pleased with the run from Our Johnathan and Horseradish put up a great display on ground probably not ideal for him.

Glad you enjoy the previews; I shall carry on all season Happy
Report Leo Bovary April 3, 2011 6:22 PM BST
Hi VK,

A close call today.
How is the new website coming along? Will you be 'blogging' soon?
Report Value King April 3, 2011 7:03 PM BST
Hi Leo,

I got rid of the website from last year at the end of the season as I wasn't sure if people were actually looking at it or not and I didn't want to stop posting on here.

I suppose I will just continue to put my previews on here in the usual fashion; unless anyone has any ideas of ways to make it better?
Report Leo Bovary April 3, 2011 7:20 PM BST
VK,
I thought - www.sprintking.co.uk was you? There are plenty of decent racing blogs about that can be good to read, and yours would be among them. A shame therefore that you have not persevered, imo. A few people have twitter accounts and will 'tweet' a link to their blogs. Some will then use the likes of Nick Luck, Graham Cunningham etc, to 're-tweet' their 'tweets' so the blog reaches a wider audience. I'm not sure how it works on here, but on The Racing Forum you can have a 'signature' which appears at the end of each post. Many people include their blog address in this.
It depends on what you are looking to achieve, your posts on here do generate interest and debate, and are well received, so its a case of whether you want your hard work to reach a wider audience or not. As a fellow flat and sprint race enthusiast I'm pleased you at least continue to post on here.
Report Meat Loaf April 3, 2011 7:30 PM BST
Great stuff Value King - imo the best poster on here.

Do you have any horses to follow on the flat this season?
Report Value King April 4, 2011 9:19 AM BST
Leo,
No that website is not mine, the one I had last season was www.thesprintking.moonfruit.com. But as I say I shut it down. I may start up another one when I have more time but at the moment I think I am happy just posting on here and enjoying the discussions. Many thanks for your generous praise though. I'm glad you enjoy  the read and let's hope for a cracking season on the flat!

Meat,
It's a nice comment to hear, thanks for the support Happy

As for ones to follow in terms of sprinting it's hard to say at this stage. With the sprinters it's all about finding the ones who are reaching their peak before dipping back to the trough. Some sprinters just keep improving and go beyond handicaps; so it's hard to name some to follow in a certain respect. However, I would say that Nasri, who was out on Sunday in the Doncaster sprint, should be winning races this season; Along with Courageous. Both horses are under the Dab Hand Racing banner and with Dandy Nicholls. They have the same profile to them as previous ones Dandy has rejuvinated for Dab Hand i.e. Regal Parade and Evens And Odds.

Nasri ran well at the weekend and should come on plenty for the run. He was an impressive two year old and finished third in the Timeform Million at Newmarket which included Donativum (1st; won Grp1 since), Crowded House (2nd; won Grp1 since), Monitor Closely (6th; won Grp2, placed Grp1 since), Sri Putra (8th; won Grp2, placed Grp1 since). So the ability is there for Dandy to get out of him, which he is fully capable of. I'm sure Nasri will win races this season and Evens And Odds was third in the Doncaster sprint a few seasons back before landing the sprint on 1000 Guineas day in taking fashion. He starts the campaign off a mark of 92 and there should be plenty of room for improvement off that kind of mark now he's back to sprinting and with one of the best trainers around in that sphere.

Courageous also starts the season off 92 and his first two starts for Dandy were very encouraging at the back end of last term. I was at Haydock the day he made his debut for the yard after moving stables and he flew home down the near side over 5f. Stepped up to 6f for the Bronze Cup he was just denied by the classy Cheveton. I think they have found the key to unlocking the potential in the horse is to hold him up and burst through late on; so I look forward to seeing him again this season. He, like Nasri, also has excellent two year old form after finishing fifth in the Racing Post Trophy behind Crowded House.

It'd be a surprise if both of those horses didn't manage to pick up a decent race between them along the way.
Report FOYLESWAR April 4, 2011 8:17 PM BST
exellent write up value king ,ive only been on betfair a few months and its really usefull and informative to have posters such as yourself putting in the effort ,many people simply have not got the time to study in depth races over all distances so its a great help you specialising in sprints and other posters speciallising in classics, middle distance handicaps, ect,a lot of helpfull info can be obtained from these threads and they  are much apppreaciated .
Report turnip turns April 4, 2011 10:03 PM BST
Hi VK,hope you have been keeping well[;)] great write up apuCool avoid sprinters at all costs here tbhShocked but enjoy the readHappy
Report Value King April 5, 2011 11:47 AM BST
Thank you for the support Foyleswar; I'm glad you are getting a lot out of the threads.

And it's good to see you again TT!
Report Michrich April 5, 2011 7:53 PM BST
Hi VK, missed this at the weekend. Are you looking at the sprint at Beverley tomorrow?
Report Value King April 5, 2011 9:01 PM BST
Hi Mich,

Preview up now for the Beverley race.
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