Kieren Fallon will not be 2011 champion jockey; it's a 3-runner race

backed him last year and it was soon clear that he was not being supported by enough big stables.

not only that, but despite flashes of his old brilliance (oaks day last year), and plenty of media hype, he was largely well short of his best.

nothing has changed.

there are only three to concentrate on this year, in order of preference:

richard hughes:
likely to be around six of seven winners behind when he returns from his suspension, but picking up five days at wolverhampton on the lincoln trial card was a potentially shrewd move - it triggered four days worth of deferred suspension that could have proved costly had they come later in the season, especially when the full evening meeting programme had kicked in. failed by only two last year, despite only going for it in the closing months. benefited from ryan moore's injury, but has committed to going for it from the start this time. richard hannon has around 20 more two-year-olds than last year, and that's before the breeze-up sales.

ryan moore:
doubtful he'll be riding at wolverhampton towards the end of the season, so he'll probably need to be in a clear lead by around glorious goodwood time, but that's entirely possible.

paul hanagan:
will probably need to repeat the fast start he made last year. last season he benefited from injuries to hamilton and tylicki, both of whom will come in for some his rides this year, not just from fahey but from other northern trainers.