Cheltenham Review - Lessons Learned thread

Well chaps, I just want to write my thoughts down while my review of Chelts is fresh in my mind, I looked back at notes from last year and my excel sheet with bets from last 3 festivals. These notes are for myself to review next season as advice. But it'd be great if we all filled it with lessons they have learnt.

I'm posting it in here at the Chelts forum gets deleted.

Ok I'll kick it off with the oh so important first day. It always makes or breaks the festival.

Supreme


Too many horses have uncorrelated form for a short priced fav to be the price he deserves. Cousin Vinny, Dunguib and Cue Card. Time to learn lessons people. I did last year.

Not an antepost betting race, unless you do so to trade. Backing on horses shortening rather than the race itself months in advance. It's very much a race to place your bets when they get nrnb or day of the race.

Have a poke at value as the last 5 winners all opened at double figures that morning, try get a pick each from Ireland and England as last six winners were 3 from Ireland 3 from England.

Plenty of offers of 4 places or money back special so even if your double figure e/w bet goes down you have not lost much in the opening race. Paddy Power will probably keep up their money back if fav wins offer that has served them well for 3 years now.

Caveat on the fav though, if Fly had made the 09 festival he'd have been supreme fav and it's hard to think Go Native or Medermit would have beaten him.

I'd only take a single figure fav if he was a flat bred like Fly and Binocular and he'd still need to leave the kind of impression on you Fly did. I think when they are good they are very good, I put this down to speed of quality flat converts can make them more reliable favs in the race.

Thing to remember, I'd be happy to miss out on a Brave Inca to save myself a Dunguib every day of the week. So when people said Cue Card is a cert, I said he might well be, but I'm not willing to bet on him to find out. The place side of a 12/1 shot is still 3/1 better odds than Cue Cards sp.

Arkle


No such thing as a festival banker in the Arkle, especially the fav. So you'd have to be on crack to have hit anything this year or last year hard on the day. There was Noland too in 08

Antepost is easily the best way to bet in this race, early antepost betting based on hurdle form. Never fails to get horses who are far shorter the week before the race. There was nothing wrong with backing Medermit @ 7/1 imo, nothing wrong with backing any of the first 4 home, each had decent claims and were decent prices when it went nrnb.

Back many lay off near the day, accept losses on some and gains on others. Don't worry about multiple bets or over betting, lay out of every cent of all your bets 7 days before racing and revaluate and transfer to nrnb bookie, possibly one with a special offer. Boyles refund 2nd is a great example, they refunded my Finians bet. You're sorted for race 2.


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By the time of the third race is finished even with a nightmare start you can't possibly be badly in the hole. 8pts was all I'd bet by the time of the Champion Hurdle this year and that was only because of Bensalem was carrying some decent redemption money.

There is no way you can or should have a huge bet in 2 novice races and a handicap. In all my years my only folly was with Dunguib who hit me bad by this time and given that was my only ever festival to post a loss I know why. Dunguib had 6pts on the nose and took down 10pts of multiples. I had also backed Menorah and two others with the PaddyP money back deal, but 1pt at 10/1 still didn't cover my losses. Had I ignored Dunguib and just gone Menorah e/w I'd have been 12.5pts up and not 8pts down from the start.

So do not over bet, 6-10pts max to be on the 3 before the Champion. So trade out of other bets to have no more than 10pts on.


Champion Hurdle


It seems I have this race by the balls. I'm going to try post my reasoning for what I go for and what I avoid. Mainly just so I stick to the formula in future.


I've had 5 winners from the last 7 runnings and I put a line through last years one as just bad luck. I had Binocular backed antepost since the beginning of last season only to lay out a few weeks before the race as his form was poor. I'd the race called right from the start of the season with 3 ap bets, Binocular, Fly and Punjabi. I just got unlucky. Only Sublimity has kicked me in the gonads fair and square

The only horses who you should back heavily are ones who have the open company form in the book to back it up. The 4 horses I was very strong on for champion hurdles were Brave Inca 06, Punjabi 09, Binocular 10 and Hurricane Fly 11 all had raced in open company the previous season (as 2nd season hurdlers) winning a Grade 1 and 3 of them made it to the Champion Hurdle and came 3rd, Fly missed it due to injury. They had all won and run plenty of races to give me enough evidence to form a confident opinion.

I opposed Binocular in 09 with Punjabi but was 100% in his camp for the next years race (until a few weeks before the race), second season Hurdlers who are short prices should be avoided. Zarkander is one I would oppose next year if he won, say, the Fighting fifth and went 5/1 for the Champion. But he's one I'd side with the year after for example.

But still 2nd season hurdlers are almost always not experienced enough and don't have enough form in the book to warrant their prices on the day. Like Binocular before them Peddlers and Menorah went stupid short after their FF and Bula wins. If you want to back a 2nd season hurdler rewatch the 3 Cheltenham novice races in September and place bets on the few you like before they race in open company.

Really the only 2nd season hurdlers I'd pay attention to are horses coming from the Neptune, given Istabraq, Hardi and Peddlers Cross have proved excellent in the Champion.

-3rd season hurdler with G1 winning form behind them are the only ones to hit hard at shorter prices.

-If you like a 2nd season hurdler, take the prices and back him before he runs in an open company race.

The main problem people suffer with the 2nd season ones are don't fall for one performance, take 3 proper wins in the book over 1 impressive one. So next year when Fly, Binocular and possibly Peddlers and Menorah are short for the Champion, you can take it, not Oscars Well, Spirit Son or Zarkander. If they are short and you didn't back them in September, let them go. let them go.


Neptune


Well take the prices early, again it's a great race for antepost betting,

09 Mikael D'Haguent and Mad Max.
10 Quel Esprit and Peddlers Cross.
11 First Lieutenant and Oscars Well.

I feared So Young, and felt he could be anything, the price contracted and contracted until I took the 7/1. Despite my opinion that I should always have a saver on the pick of the English, I did on bobs worth nrnb, but when he was a non runner I never thought twice about rock on ruby despite him being most certainly the only horse left in the field who posed a threat.

Lesson learned, Ireland and England have separate form lines, always have one from each side like previous years, even if it is just a saver on one. Also once I feared So Young I should have taken the saver on at the price, not wasted time.

AP betting in January on this race and you got 20/1+ on both FL and Oscars Well, both Grade 1 winners. My ap bets last year were placed in January too. I think I'll be sure to do the same next year.


RSA


Man I am serious unlucky in this race. I haven't had the winner since some horse called Denman. Lost ap bet in 09 was Pando and Joncol the year before, both at very big odds. I didn't back Cooldine, I did back Long Run.

What I'd learnt from Long Run and last year in general was there will never ever be a banker in a novice race other than possibly the Neptune. So never back one as if there is. Clearly he should have been a banker, but that's racing.

This year I'd been sweet on Quel Esprit and he was running a fine race until his mishap. I am still happy in my main picks Long Run and Quel Esprit in the last two years. Aside from actually finding the winner the one thing I've managed to get right though is spotting them early, they're all shorter on the day then when bet is placed.

I had said in my run through of the race in late Feb if I'd no ap bets (had 5 at the time) Bostons Angel would be the value, 2 grade 1 wins and available at 20/1 at the time.

I'll make sure to only add previous seasons star hurdlers that I fancy antepost early, one win combined with their hurdling form results in price crash city. TFR was a bet before he jumped a fence, he was not a bet afterwards. Mikael was the same had he won his first race his price crash would have been huge.

So if you fancy on bet on your Grands Crus', Bobs Worth's and First Lieutenants' back before they jump a fence. Then like the Neptune, the rest can be left until January where plenty of value is available and most should have at least 2 runs by then.


Champion Chase


I feel I did this one ok, serious strong opposition to Master Minded. I had backed the first 3 home. Zeb was strongly fancied and Arkle Stat is an amazing one. I had Sizing in e/w accas because of the place certainty of the Arkle stat. It turned out better than a place bet though.

So simple thing to learn, always always take the Arkle winner e/w. Keep him in the e/w accas too.

Bumper


Accept it, you'll never get the winner in this race. Just give up. One e/w bet only. Not two, one.


Ryanair


Poquelin proves handicap form is a useless guide to Grade 1 winning form. Also this is a race where fav's should be avoided as should antepost betting. It's never been successful, lesson learned from from Voy Por banker, to e/w shot to nothing Poquelin. Despite getting it wrong, I got it right last year, three bullets, Voy Por, Planet of Sound and Barbers Shop all missed but at least they were 10/1+.

Keep the race as far away from accumulators as it can possibly be. Remember this race is for mincer horses hoping they can win a grade 1.

Try an e/w and a win next year when it's nrnb or on the day.


World Hurdle


Just in case you have started to doubt yourself as the next pretender to Big Bucks emerges remember Big bucks is a machine, always smash him up like you have the previous 2 years. If he loses fair enough you've made enough on the great horse in his career.

So feel free to add to multiples and smash into him when it's nrnb.


Triumph hurdle


Never ever ever ever ever ever ever ever place an antepost bet on this race ever again. Ignore it pretty much until after the Adonis hurdle. That is 3 years running I have wanted to back the eventual winner but felt I'd bet the race enough. Learn your lesson, AR was right you can pick the winner on the day.

Albert Bartlett


Well since the Witchita Lineman, Nenuphar Collonges and the 1-2 last time in Bobs worth and Mossley. Decent record alright. Wait till nrnb and back what you fancy for the race even if it is 90% sure it wont run. Bobs Worth 10/1 is case in point.

Gold Cup


It became a betting race again and 7/10 winners won either the King George or Lexus Chase before winning the Gold Cup, the other 3 winners ran in either race, Matey and WOA came 2nd with excuses and IC hit a fence. Might be worth taking Long Run KG / GC double at 5/1 which can sort you for two races.

No real lessons to learn here.

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General lessons to remember

1) Remember 2010, 4 biggest bet horses took down the festival. Two were acceptable as they were the Championship races, 2 were avoidable as they were Novice races. Spread bets more.

2) Do your homework properly, Al Ferof, Carlito Brigante (especially Carlito) and Final Approach were horses you should have got. Lack of homework is the only reason.

3) Only 1 ap bet in a Handicap when it's nrnb. Then study the race on the day or the night before and add another.

4) You can go back to doing multiples again 3/4 placed came in, but spread them and leave Supreme horses out of them.

5) Put up i/r lays on everything you bet on, and have a system of laying derived by the time of the festival.