Ayr Scottish National 2011

Razor Royale

chill out the ground will be tarmac

King Fontaine

Well no Gentle Ranger (surprising) or Ogee (unsurprising the way it ran at Newbury) and Minella Four Star put up a massive 15 lbs for winning at Uttoxeter. Ouzbeck has been trained for the race all year, won the Summer National at Uttoxeter, stormed up the hill at Chelters behind Midnight Chase lto over fences and ran a nice prep over hurdles the other day at Bangor under 7lb claimer who is presumably going to take the mount at Ayr (the horse has had a spin over hurdles prior to both its success's over fences for new yard). Could still do with it being a little lower in the weights as my guess is that Blazing Bailey will carry top weight on a mark of 153, depending on what mark Chicago Grey gets who is an intended runner (ATR website has him in at 147 which is highly unlikely given he won at Cheltenham rated 151!!).
Be very wary of runners from the 4 mile NH chase as plenty have won or placed there and been beaten at Ayr. In fact only 3 horses in past 15 years have run at Aintree or Cheltenham and all unplaced. I wouldnt dismiss Major Malarkey out of hand as he looked a horse to follow when winning at Newbury on good ground and things havent quite gone his way on last 2 starts (heavy ground and fell early) but comes from a stable who has won the race twice with a novice and 128 is a nice mark to go to war with. Imoncloudnine is overpriced at 33's as Neil Mullholland reckons its a better horse than its mark and needed a break after 2 hard runs in the welsh national and at Fos Las (gets a massive 22lb turn around with Minella Four Star on that running) when disappointing at Sandown.

Any thoughts on the likely ground at this stage - the forecast looks fairly unsettled.

Heavy rain over the west coast just now, then dry into the weekend. Dont know after that. Ayr does dry out very quickly. I remember the year Iris De Balme won (2008?) It was officially heavy 8 days before and yet was genuinely good on the day. Im holding fire on any bets until the 5 day desc when we should have more of an idea about the ground.

Crickey. Any horse I have a fancy for is falling by the wayside. Suppose Ouzbeck is favoured by the topweight running and ran well enough the other day but my gut feeling is that its not good enough. I'm stumped!

Chicago Grey for the National and Sanctuaire for the Hurdle. Will both love the fast ground.

anyone think blazing bailey could run well

Have him on my shortlist for the race along with Minella Four Star. They are both closely handicapped on that Ffos Las race and he will love the marathon distance of the race.

confident bailey will beat minella four star

confident bailey will beat minella four star

Both a cursory glance and then a more in depth analysis would seem to make Always Right an absolute steering job.

How he isn't around a 9/4 favourite is beyond me.

I thought Always Right won a shade cosily last time and is totally unexposed

However, I am currently doing a rain dance up here in the west coast of Scotland as I believe that Beshabar will take a lot of beating if the ground is on the soft side on Saturday.

The Minack appears to have a lovely weight , don't think the top weight will be coming out somehow.

"Chicago Grey for the National and Sanctuaire for the Hurdle. Will both love the fast ground."

One down one to go.

The forecast would also have been nice

Unlucky Mate. Good shout on your part but i am guessing the ground put you off betting Beshabar. Never mind, at least we know we are on the right track!