Horse Antepost
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Both are 16-1 with Laddies!!! I can't believe these two horses are priced up as outsiders for the worlds richest horse race, laughable!!!
I know it's a different surface they will be running on but I can't see either of these pair having any trouble with Tapeta!!!
Ryan Moore on Buena Vista a massive plus as well.
I know it's a different surface they will be running on but I can't see either of these pair having any trouble with Tapeta!!!
Ryan Moore on Buena Vista a massive plus as well.
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Bit harsh jocking Conor O'Farrell off Buena Vista tbh
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Just won a Midlands Grand National as well!!! He wont be able to claim his allowance in a Group 1, it's a shame for the lad!
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The three Japanese raiders are massively overpriced - don't rule out the proven on dirt Transcend either. Backed Victoire Pisa for the Arc, think he's improved a lot since then and will have no hassle on the new surface. I'd prefer to see Yataka ride but Demuro is a pilot proving himself in big international races and is obviously a name we'll hear a lot more of.
Of the others, well I had Twice Over in his Maktoum Challenge win and that was pretty devasting for his first run up. Cape Blanco must be a big danger for the Irish, the team at Ballydoyle will surely have given extra thought to this decision. Big question is who rides, Moore and Soumillion otherwise engaged. Leaves you wondering if Fallon or Murtagh will get the gig. |
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Or Jamie Spencer given his connection with the new owner. A win in the DWC for APOB and JS could be the start of a new era.
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spencer rides cape blanco.
cannot entertain transcend. japanese dirt form is dire and this is a completely different surface. |
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For sure DL?
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spencer is retained by cape blanco's new owner.
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Victoire Pisa was very impressive on his recent run in Japan and he has gone from strength to strength since his return from France last autumn. BV showed last year that she is a good traveller abroad and I would prefer this duo's chances of liking the surface over Transcend who looks the inferior of the Japanese trio
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wonder if they'll go back to Japan after.
Buena Vista might as well head to Europe. some nice races for her while Japan recovers. |
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It looks like the Tapeta surface suits turf horses more than dirt so I would personally rule out Transcend on that basis! I have to agree with SM Victoire Pisa is getting better and better, I always thought 10f was his trip and his runs in the Japan Cup and Arima Kinen surprised me mainly due to how well he stayed the trips!! He was very impressive in his last run over 9f. There is not a lot to add about Buena Vista, she has to be the most consistent horse in training with Goldikova and she will have the speed for this drop in trip no problem! At the prices on offer it's just a no brainer not to back both Japanese horses.
One negative is that no Japanese horse has ever won the Dubai World Cup but there is a first for everything! It will be interesting to see how Cape Blanco is run in the race, we all know Spencer likes his waiting tactics but Cape Blanco's best performance was when he lead from the front and kept pouring it on in the Irish Champion! |
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Anyone know if they provisional entries for each of the races are available online anywhere?
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Here you go VP
http://www.dubairacingclub.com/sites/default/files/Likely_Fields_2011.pdf |
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Cheers Dinos!
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Moore rides BV.
Murtagh on Gitano Hernando (14/1) The more I think about this Twice Over looks rock solid,it's just a shame his price is 2/1 .. he has been campaigned for it this time, and has acclimatised to conditions. Has had a different prep to last year which is a big positive. Gitano Hernando was sent of fav for this last time and he too has been campaigned different and he looks like he has progressed with each run on the distances, but he needs to reverse form with TO and it bugs me that the horse has just been sold. If he was just about to win the worlds richest race, then why sell him ?? No bet for me. TO solid but price skinny.imo |
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The following information was taken from Dubai Race Night Website.
Wednesday Morning Track Work Meydan Today’s best mover: BUENA VISTA. The pride of Japan worked 1,200 metres on the Tapeta with her traditional hood, and while the final time was relatively slow in 1:22.82, her finishing kick was off the charts. Jim Cornes, international stable coordinator and clocker caught the daughter of Special Week through 200-metre fraction of 15.66, 14.92, 15.10, 14.91 and when asked to quicken, responded with a sensational final 400 metres with 200 splits of 11.96 and an eye-popping 10.27. Buena Vista should handle this surface without a problem given her affinity to work over the track on Wednesday. Sounds like she is enjoying herself on the Tapeta surface!!! Not the most ideal draw for Buena Vista in stall 13 but I'm not too worried about that because there doesn't seem to be a big draw bias at the new Meydan track!!! Twice Over won his prep race from stall 13, so for all you Twice Over supporters I wouldn't be put off by his stall number of 12! Victoire Pisa has got a good draw in 6 which gives him more options but I'm quite confident he will take a more prominent position in the race from watching his past runs!!! Should be a fantastic race! |
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Yup. Despite saying I was going to avoid the race, i've decided to have an eachway bet on BV. I cant get the jockey booking out of my head, so at 12/1 it's worth a bash.
She will be held up so dont envisage to many problems with the draw, and Ryan excels with these type of horses and is strong in a finish. |
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She would appear to be...the value in the race now. actually forget value...its a bit of a no brainer bet...eachway at that price :o
A very very serious opponent because although she quite clearly has the speed for 10f and indeed a group1 winner over the trip and at a shorter distance she was quite cruelly robbed of victory in the Japan Cup when for me a decisive winner and then Soumillon cost her big time in the more important Arima Kinen. He completely made a horlicks of that. Previously I'd have given horses like her a miss but the race is on the more sympathetic tapeta so no problems. no surprise to see the J aps book Ryan considering his far east achievements and recent wins at Meydan. Draw is unimportant to me. I look at it as a plus because now I now I dont have to worry about her being boxed in and need help to win. Think the race will set up for a closer...front runners well drawn and I'm expecting the likes of Twice Over and Gitano Hernando to keep them them honest and not let it be a start-stop-sprint race. |
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While some were elated with their runners having drawn ideal stall numbers, others looked back at their previous runs to keep their hopes alive.
Buena Vista is the only mare in the 14-strong line-up for the $10 million (Dh36.6 million) winner's cheque and may have drawn stall 13 but connections stayed confident. After the Japanese raider's routine piece of work yesterday, trainer Hiroshi Matsuda said: "She is a type of horse who does not start well, so it (draw 13) does not matter. Actually my grandson told me the other day Buena Vista has won twice from stall number 13!" Katsumi Yoshida, a trustee of Sunday Racing Co. said the horse was adapting well to Dubai. "She looks fit, she has thrived since she arrived in Dubai, and if we did not think she had a chance we would not be here," he said in an email interview . "I know it's a top quality field, but I believe in Buena Vista's ability." Lucky number 13 for Buena Vista!!! [;)] |
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Twico Over looks rock solid, the Warren house team have targeted thisnrace&want to make up for last year, he ran a very impressive prep race in the mak challenge&will come on from the run.
Cape blanco is a lay for this race, a galileo colt on tapita in his 1st outing of the season, I just feel he won't handle the surface and needs the run as he did last year before the Dante, aob is so strong handed in the older class it's a joke, alongside blanco he has so you think who is a beast& a 5star banker for the prince of wales, Jan vaneer &SNS train on, and the viscount Nelson is a horse whonis very lightly raced and underestimated |
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I'm with you Dinos. What do you think of Royal Bench in the Duty Free as an EW?
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Hi HKAccie, I backed Royal Bench at Sha Tin in the Hong Kong Mile and have followed him since his debut as a 2 year old. I really like this horse and was a big fan of his sire Whipper! Regarding his chance in the Dubai Duty Free I think he has good EW shot, if he can re-produce his stunning performance in the Hong Kong Mile when he came from last position coming round the bend to nearly winning the race!!! He also has good record running fresh and I don't think the extra furlong will prove a problem!!
My concerns with RB is Robert Collet's (trainer) form at the moment isn't great, he is not banging in the winners and a lot of his horses are not even getting close to winning!!! Plus RB only arrived in Dubai yesterday, so he hasn't had much time to acclimatize. I will back RB on the night EW even though there are a couple of negatives, I would be absolutely gutted if he ran a stormer and I didn't have my cash on him!!! I hope this helps you and good luck with your bets!!! |
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Mr D - the exact same reasons for me to back him, fastest final 400m that day at Sha Tin I think - which is saying something if you saw Snow Fairy that day, and nothing was coming from behind. If he showed that form a very decent chance.....can you have Beauty Flash? Keeps on giving......a real trier that one.
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Good to see plenty of Buena Vista fans. Hope she runs her race and she'll have a cracking e/w chance.
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Ryan Moore, rider of Buena Vista
"I think the Japanese horses are often underestimated and perhaps she has slipped under the radar a little. She has great form and if she performs as she has in the past then she would have legitimate claims.I've ridden in races she has won so I am well aware of her quality. The draw will not be a problem because she comes from off the pace. She is very relaxed here and seems to like the track. We are expecting a good run." |
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better back her now too. just in case some smart ar$e in the rp tips her tomorrow. Not naming names TOM SEGAL but I seem to recall him putting up Hearts Cry a few years back.
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HK, thanks for posting the info on Royal Bench! Concerning Beauty Flash he seems to be in the form of his life at the moment and there have been some glowing comments from the work watchers a Meydan about his appearance and the way he's moving on the track. There are a couple of things I have issues with him though, as you know Sha Tin is a right handed track and all his best races have been at that track! The only time he raced away from Sha Tin was when he got unplaced at Tokyo which is left handed the same as Meydan! That puts some doubt in my mind, he also had the run of the race in the Hong Kong Mile, Royal Bench had to come from last and a much wider position!
There appears to be a fair amount of pace in Dubai Duty Free which might set it up for the closers so I think I will side with Royal Bench on this one HK! |
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I backed Buena Vista and Victoire Pisa at 16-1 EW last week so I'm a happy camper, how Laddies came up with these prices still beggars belief!!! [:D]
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cheers Elg, unlike Ryan to be so talkative
gone for Wigmore Hall in the Duty Free, he loves big fields, form figures with 10 or more runners 8113151. A fast pace will suit and he'll be finishing late and is on the upgrade being a 4yo. |
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the 8th was racecourse debut as a 2yo too.
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Rupert Bell the brother of Wigmore Hall's trainer sounded very confident this morning on talkSPORT regarding his chance!!!
I have to say Sint he is the one I fear most in the Dubai Duty Free and the stats you have pulled up are very interesting!!! |
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yep I remember last year when he dotted up at Newmarket on Debut but then went and got beaten on his next two starts in small fields. I think he just loves a bit of cover and a strong pace.
It was a close finihs last time but did it snug enough, and if he improves for it he should be far away. Hopefully wont be out the frame as i've backed eachway. |
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At time of writing HKJC prices are 4.7 for BV and 13's for RB - though the pools are a bit light at the moment. Beauty Flash is 2.4!!!
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pricewise.
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The Michael Bell-trained Wigmore Hall, who beat Presvis in the Jebel Hatta this month, was third after a troubled passage and will also travel to Hong Kong.
"That was a nightmare," Bell said. "He couldn't get out, he was desperately unlucky. He was murdered at the head of the straight. I'm not saying he would have won though. "Hong Kong here we come. We'll meet Presvis again there."  |
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Back
Your Odds Your Stake Your Profit Victoire Pisa 26.54 £1,324.87  |
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I had the other one transcend at a huge price.
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Great result for the Japanese and a brilliant ride by Mirco Demuro, had some balls to do what he did!!!
I have to admit I was completely wrong about Transcend and he ran a cracking race. Well done to the people who backed him EW at the prices! Buena Vista didn't run her race and I'm sure the lack of pace didn't do her any favours!!! Overall there have been some strange tactics going on in all the races today, I don't know what some of these jockey's are thinking at times, very poor!!! |
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Well done MrD - good thread. Backed Victoire Pisa myself but nothing huge. It was a good result for the Japanese and the emotion at the end showed what it meant to crippled country.
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