2011 Trainers Championship

2011 Trainers Championship
So the new season is almost upon us and I think this particular race looks most intriguing this year.
Obviously we have the usual suspects in Sir Michael and AOB as well as last year’s winner Richard Hannon but, at 5-1, I have had a few quid on HRA Cecil to roll back the years and win the trainers championship for the first time since 1993!
Having just received my copy of Horses in Training 2011 it is interesting that Cecil has increased numbers this year – back up to 140 – which is only a few less than Stoute or O’Brien and that he has just as many 3 year old + as them which are clearly the main money spinners.
He also has 3 group 1 winners coming back for more this year in Midday, Twice Over and Frankel as well as a host of other would be group horses.
Of the older horses Channel Squadron, Jet Away, Manifest, Timepiece and Vita Nova are just a few who could make a serious impact in pattern races this term.
Of the three year olds, as well as Frankel who COULD just carry all before him, there are several highly regarded sorts such as World Domination, Air Traffic, Midsummer Sun, Picture Editor, All Time and Arizona Jewel as well as many that come under the “could be anything” category.
He also has probably his strongest set of two year olds for many a year. As well as the full brother to Frankel he has the full brother to Passage of Time, the full sister to Midday, a half sister to Light Shift, the first son of Light Shift, the full brother to World Domination and four very expensive purchases from new owner Sir Robert Ogden. The two year old crop is full of Galileo’s, Dansili’s, Oasis Dream’s and Teofilo’s and the overall quality is way higher than even in recent years.
Clearly to win the championship you have got to win some of the big prizes and they come no bigger than the Derby and King George. I suppose a lot will depend on Frankel and whether they decide he is a mile and a half horse but, even if that turns out not to be the case, there are other possibles out there and it wouldn’t even surprise me to see Midday take on the colts this year.
Of the competition I cannot see Richard Hannon doing it again although I am sure he will give it a damn good go. He still has Canford Cliffs and Dick Turpin in training but they will more than likely be aimed at the same sort of races and so I don’t quite see where his big wins will come from.
Sir Michael as usual has plenty of ammunition. Carlton House, Havant and Sea Moon are all horses with classic pretensions and he has plenty of other unexposed three year olds that could develop into pattern performers. However, Workforce aside, he does not have his strongest ever bunch of older horses. Crystal Capella and Eleanora Duse are fillies I like but I am not sure that they are Group 1’s and the rest are all fairly exposed. Workforce could be very exciting this year but I can only see him running in the Coronation and the King George. He is clearly a horse that needs time in between his races and I am sure the Arc will be his main target again. Obviously he has some exciting juveniles but they are not going to win anyone the championship.
The most obvious threat to Cecil has to be Mr O’Brien. He has a small but very select bunch of older horses – Await The Dawn (very highly regarded), Cape Blanco, Fame and Glory, the much hyped So You Think and, perhaps most interestingly, St Nicholas Abbey. Part of me would love to see St Nick do well this year just to silence those smart asses that said “told you so” after he “flopped” in the Guineas and then didn’t run again. They wouldn’t be keeping him in training just for the fun of it would they?
He also has any number of potential three year old classic winners. Roderic O’Connor and Zoffany must surely be live threats to Frankel in the 2,000 Guineas, Misty for Me is fancied for both her Guineas and the Oaks and Recital, Seville and Roderic could all be serious Derby prospects. As well as that he has a whole host of two year old Galileo’s and Montjeu’s waiting to be the next in line on the Coolmore conveyor belt. At 3-1 I would say he is better value than Sir Michael but he did have a poor year by his standards last year and I am prepared to take him on in the hope that Cecil will be at least represented in almost as many Group Ones as any trainer this year.
In the three year old colt division there is Frankel who may well run in the Guineas, St James, Sussex, QEII and Champion even if he doesn’t tackle the Derby or King George. Any one of the other above mentioned colts could make up into middle distance Group 1 horses.
The three year old fillies may come down to All Time or Arizona Jewel but Midday will surely go for a 3rd Nassau and 2nd Yorkshire Oaks and may even take on the colts in the Coronation on Derby day.
Twice Over could well contest the same races as last year – Prince of Wales, Eclipse, International and Champion so really Henry is only missing a sprinter and a genuine stayer.
It would be some accomplishment after the wilderness years and everything he has been through with his health. There is at least one person here who will be rooting for him every step of the way.