Horse Antepost
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16 Feb 11
20:51
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Date Joined:
04 Apr 06
I thought it would be interesting to see what everyones views are on a likely longshot that could win or more likely make the frame in the race.
Over the years there have been plenty of big prices to finish in the first 5 places.
The likes of , Cerium, Mon Mone, Philson Run, Royal Auclair, Risk Accessor, Spotthedifference, and Simply Gifted have all run with great credit in the last few years.
I will start the ball rolling and give my selection
Roll Along @ 100/1 VC, PP, SJ
The horse has had it's problem, been of the track for over a year until recently, but on his day he is a classy performer. Also ran a stinker on its return recently(though this was over hurdles)
With the negatives out the way, lets get to the positives.
The horse has a 2nd place in the Royal SunAlliance Chase at the Cheltenham festival to his name, where he stayed on from a long way back to finish 4 lengths behind the classy winner Albertas Run.
The following year he was 6th in a very good Gold Cup, beaten 24 lengths by Kauto Star. Denman was only 11 lengths in front, and a likely National rival Neptune Collonges was only 2 lengths ahead off level weights.
Yet Neptune Collonges will have to concede Roll Along 17 lbs if they both line up in the National.
Formerly rated at OR 160 he now gets in off a featherweight OR 143, weight 10st 7lb
The clincher for me is that he is trained by a master over the National fences, Mr N Twiston Davies.
Entered in a decent handicap chase @ Ascot this weekend, a decent run could see his odds tumble.
Thoughts please
Over the years there have been plenty of big prices to finish in the first 5 places.
The likes of , Cerium, Mon Mone, Philson Run, Royal Auclair, Risk Accessor, Spotthedifference, and Simply Gifted have all run with great credit in the last few years.
I will start the ball rolling and give my selection
Roll Along @ 100/1 VC, PP, SJ
The horse has had it's problem, been of the track for over a year until recently, but on his day he is a classy performer. Also ran a stinker on its return recently(though this was over hurdles)
With the negatives out the way, lets get to the positives.
The horse has a 2nd place in the Royal SunAlliance Chase at the Cheltenham festival to his name, where he stayed on from a long way back to finish 4 lengths behind the classy winner Albertas Run.
The following year he was 6th in a very good Gold Cup, beaten 24 lengths by Kauto Star. Denman was only 11 lengths in front, and a likely National rival Neptune Collonges was only 2 lengths ahead off level weights.
Yet Neptune Collonges will have to concede Roll Along 17 lbs if they both line up in the National.
Formerly rated at OR 160 he now gets in off a featherweight OR 143, weight 10st 7lb
The clincher for me is that he is trained by a master over the National fences, Mr N Twiston Davies.
Entered in a decent handicap chase @ Ascot this weekend, a decent run could see his odds tumble.
Thoughts please
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I've heard worse shouts, would need good ground which is likely.
For me, I think Killyglen could run a decent race @ 50/1. After a gruesome campaign last season (not the first time HJH has done that!) he was shipped off to Ireland to be trained with the Grand National in mind.
The aseason before that he was a decent novice chaser and rounded of that season with a grade 2 success over 3m1f at Aintree, on good ground.
This season he's been brought along steadily and last time out had a spin over hurdles. Not entirely sure that he is well handicapped though, but I think the extreme distance could bring about some improvement.
For me, I think Killyglen could run a decent race @ 50/1. After a gruesome campaign last season (not the first time HJH has done that!) he was shipped off to Ireland to be trained with the Grand National in mind.
The aseason before that he was a decent novice chaser and rounded of that season with a grade 2 success over 3m1f at Aintree, on good ground.
This season he's been brought along steadily and last time out had a spin over hurdles. Not entirely sure that he is well handicapped though, but I think the extreme distance could bring about some improvement.
I have backed him too g mac, just thought I would write up my selection at the bigger current price
Not to put a dampner on it mate but Roll Along didnt look right lto.
Always Waining will give you a run for your money at a huge price. Likes the course and his time of year. May not get home but might be one where you're thinking at Becher's 2nd time round "he might you know", bit like Clan Royal was for me a few years back (mind you I backed Silver Birch at 130 who eventually won [:o])
Put a small bet on Roll Along a few weeks ago, but didn't know what to think after Sandown. Don't know if it was out for an easy time of it, or if it's just gone. Time will tell, but if it comes back to anywhere near its best, would have a good chance.
If I had to pick a big priced one it would require a leap of faith to even envisage him going there, but if Quinz ran well in Racing Post Chase, I think Hobbs would give him his chance. As I said though, unlikely, certainly according to Hobbs at the moment.
If I had to pick a big priced one it would require a leap of faith to even envisage him going there, but if Quinz ran well in Racing Post Chase, I think Hobbs would give him his chance. As I said though, unlikely, certainly according to Hobbs at the moment.
Oh yeah, and if he retained anything like his old ability, Ambobo too. 
I hate to say it as I love him, but Tidal Bay if it goes there will be a shot.
Giles Cross is 200's on here, which is really not bad for a horse that only just got touched off in the Welsh National by a well handicapped rival.
He stays & jumps very well.
He's a bit of a plodder and may not quite make the weights but he is a huge price for such a decent horse.
He stays & jumps very well.
He's a bit of a plodder and may not quite make the weights but he is a huge price for such a decent horse.
apieceofcake...I have backed Roll Along.Stuck on the outside for a long way in the GC.I have also backed Grand Slam Hero.I love watching that summer plate race of 10.9 at M.RASEN
In Compliance - has been the target all season, on here at 160
I took Frankie Figg at 260´s, can see him leading like his stable mate Bewley´s Berry. don´t overly fancy him but pays me ca 1000 for my 4 euro...
I thought Carronhills ran a nice comeback there in the Aon Chase- lovely big jumper. Hopefully he will make the lineup as he is available at 330's!
after yesterdays performance silver must have a chance if it comes up heavy
the 2 i like at decent prices are Arbor Supreme 75 on here (going well when unseated at the chair last year ) and Tricky Trickster 75 as well on here another year older well fancied last year as a 7yr old but seemingly overlooked this year could run a very big race
Red Rum. Safe jumper, stays all day, talented trainer.
Ballyfitz. Out and out stayer and those fences might frighten him into jumping well. 160 not too shabby.
Northern Alliance has a massive chance imo. Fits all the trends 70s
I now have a new long shot. Becauseicouldntsee is 55 on here due to a small injury he picked up. I'm on at 130s from months ago but 55 is a great price, he's got a big chance if he makes the race.
think comply or die ran pretty well last time until been outpaced around the bend, completed the course three times and is back down to a reasonable mark. if it wins the Eider on saturday which it has every chance to do then will be nowhere near its curent price, getting on a bit now but he knows the fences well and must have a chance at a place at worst.
Deep Purple.
But probably won't go for it according to price
But probably won't go for it according to price
apieceofcake.I would be interested to know if you have kept faith in Roll Along for the G.N.I have.The last run it jumped well and the jock seemed determined to get the horse to finish the race.Blinkers on for the 1st time i think.Check out the Steeplechasing thread on the Chelt forum.Some horses run better when used for the 2nd time.Roll Along can run well when fresh and i trust NTD to get this horse fit for the race.Or am i just clutching at straws?
I agree with scanner on In Compliance got 80s before last weeks race and a little bit of 66s with Sportin Bet 2day,sound place claims. GL all
Surface To Air 66/1. Was watching it the other morning on the gallops, coming back to himself and its going to be entered at Market Rasen in a hurdle and Newbury in a veterans chase. Not many miles up over fences because of injuries (ran 4 times won 3 and 2nd the other time) and hasn't been seen for a few year(2008) but it won its last 3 races including the Durham National at Sedgfield and the Summer National at Uttoxeter. Has 10st-2lbs in the National and it's worth a few bob e.w. but i'd wait and see how it gets on next week i'd rather be on it fit at 40s then unfit at 66s
Comply or Die at 50/1 - back to somewhere near the mark it won the race at. Would go down in legend if it won again. Has always completed and goes well on the better ground aintree will have. Pipe will have him bombed. Almost seems as though it has been forgotten about with it being 50/1. Best e/w bet in the race imo
Agree with toffee boy. Always Waining a big price. May struggle to get in but think will be balloted out an go for the Topham if he doesn't get in so no worries about losing money I would say unless injury etc.
RP website temp. offline but I'm sure he has won or been placed over 3 miles a couple of years ago if I remember correctly. Takes to fences, would be up there from start and obviously kept/likes this time of year. Watching last years Topham you certainly couldn't see him stopping any time soon and off a low weight if he gets in certainly don' think he is anything like a 100/1 shot. Bit like Topham last year when he was 66/1 two days before hnd and won at 22/1. Frankie Figg similar profile.
RP website temp. offline but I'm sure he has won or been placed over 3 miles a couple of years ago if I remember correctly. Takes to fences, would be up there from start and obviously kept/likes this time of year. Watching last years Topham you certainly couldn't see him stopping any time soon and off a low weight if he gets in certainly don' think he is anything like a 100/1 shot. Bit like Topham last year when he was 66/1 two days before hnd and won at 22/1. Frankie Figg similar profile.
I was drawn to Roll Along when the weights came out given his connections and drop in the weights. I think he ran 'o.kish' at Ascot for a hold up horse who likes decent ground and it looked like a run just to open his lungs up. My concern is that decent ground has always been the key to him and that he may not get that at Aintree. May be of interest if he sidesteps for something like the Scotish GN/Whitbread though where he is perhaps more likely to get his ground.
Shrewd, yeah, he ran very well in 09 Topham as well, finished 4th but looked like winning for a short while.
I was on Dooney's Gate but must ahve lost a leg judging by latest market action- anyone hear anything?
^ I Put up Meanus Dandy to win A Grand National....Before it ever set foot on a racecourse on the Irish forum about 3 years ago,
Grand Slam Hero 66/1 Generally. 150/1 on here.
Right trainer NT-D English & Scottish National wins..
10yo still improving, up 34lbs since Dec 09.
Won 4 chases this season, 21furlongs - 26 furs, 50% of runs.
3rd best RPR of National field currently 178 with Quinz.
Guaranteed to get in off 10st 7lbs.
Trainer stated his two main entries were GSH & Hello Bud, and "GSH could be joker in the pack" when interviewed following announcement of weights.
Right trainer NT-D English & Scottish National wins..
10yo still improving, up 34lbs since Dec 09.
Won 4 chases this season, 21furlongs - 26 furs, 50% of runs.
3rd best RPR of National field currently 178 with Quinz.
Guaranteed to get in off 10st 7lbs.
Trainer stated his two main entries were GSH & Hello Bud, and "GSH could be joker in the pack" when interviewed following announcement of weights.
Ok chaps on the back of your long odds fancies I have staked a speculative £20 on the following based on your fancies. But with my luck in ante post bets I can't see any of them getting a run 
Back Your
Odds Your
Stake Your
Profit
Arbor Supreme 30 £3.00 £87.00
Ref: Bet matched:
In Compliance 75 £2.00 £148.00
Ref: Bet matched:
Ballyfitz 140 £3.00 £417.00
Ref: Bet matched:
Always Waining 240 £2.00 £478.00
Ref: Bet matched:
Roll Along 290 £2.00 £578.00
Ref: Bet matched:
Dooneys Gate 220 £3.00 £657.00
Ref: Bet matched:
Grand Slam Hero 170 £3.00 £507.00
Ref: Bet matched:
Surface To Air 190 £2.00 £378.00
Back Your
Odds Your
Stake Your
Profit
Arbor Supreme 30 £3.00 £87.00
Ref: Bet matched:
In Compliance 75 £2.00 £148.00
Ref: Bet matched:
Ballyfitz 140 £3.00 £417.00
Ref: Bet matched:
Always Waining 240 £2.00 £478.00
Ref: Bet matched:
Roll Along 290 £2.00 £578.00
Ref: Bet matched:
Dooneys Gate 220 £3.00 £657.00
Ref: Bet matched:
Grand Slam Hero 170 £3.00 £507.00
Ref: Bet matched:
Surface To Air 190 £2.00 £378.00
chazcabbage
Date Joined: 12 Dec 03
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When: 08 Mar 11 19:44
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Date Joined: 12 Dec 03
| Topic/replies: 12 | Blogger: chazcabbage's blog
Grand Slam Hero 66/1 Generally. 150/1 on here.
Right trainer NT-D English & Scottish National wins..
10yo still improving, up 34lbs since Dec 09.
Won 4 chases this season, 21furlongs - 26 furs, 50% of runs.
3rd best RPR of National field currently 178 with Quinz.
Guaranteed to get in off 10st 7lbs.
Trainer stated his two main entries were GSH & Hello Bud, and "GSH could be joker in the pack" when interviewed following announcement of weights.
Was looking at getting on for a bit of interest. Any major reason it`s drifted to 260`s?
Date Joined: 12 Dec 03
Add contact | Send message
When: 08 Mar 11 19:44
Joined:
Date Joined: 12 Dec 03
| Topic/replies: 12 | Blogger: chazcabbage's blog
Grand Slam Hero 66/1 Generally. 150/1 on here.
Right trainer NT-D English & Scottish National wins..
10yo still improving, up 34lbs since Dec 09.
Won 4 chases this season, 21furlongs - 26 furs, 50% of runs.
3rd best RPR of National field currently 178 with Quinz.
Guaranteed to get in off 10st 7lbs.
Trainer stated his two main entries were GSH & Hello Bud, and "GSH could be joker in the pack" when interviewed following announcement of weights.
Was looking at getting on for a bit of interest. Any major reason it`s drifted to 260`s?
My long shot is Ornais.
200+ on here. Recently made a satisfactory return from injury with the National as his target.
200+ on here. Recently made a satisfactory return from injury with the National as his target.
come round to the idea of tidal bay his record at aintree is great he might be quirky but is consistant. on good ground 4m4f should suit he just has to take to the fences , there are a lot in that boat though. tidal prices in relation to what a friends is crazy
Twiston Davies jockeys:
Sam Twiston-Davies (newly promoted stable jockey)- Hello Bud
Paddy Brennan - Roll Along/Grand Slam Hero
Sam Twiston-Davies (newly promoted stable jockey)- Hello Bud
Paddy Brennan - Roll Along/Grand Slam Hero
The national used to be a strong trends race. Basically the winner had to carry less than 11 stone, have won a race over 3m 1f or over, have run well in either the Cheltenham Gold Cup, Hennessey, Welsh National, Irish National or Ritz (William Hill trophy) in either that season or the season previously.
There are a few horses that could be classed as outsiders in this years race that fall into the above trends - the two I like are from unfasionable trainers and hence their prices are good value.
Chief Dan George won last seasons Willaim Hill Trophy at Cheltenham (has been backed recently but still around 33/1)
Bluesea Cracker won last years Irish National (available at around 33/1)
There are a few horses that could be classed as outsiders in this years race that fall into the above trends - the two I like are from unfasionable trainers and hence their prices are good value.
Chief Dan George won last seasons Willaim Hill Trophy at Cheltenham (has been backed recently but still around 33/1)
Bluesea Cracker won last years Irish National (available at around 33/1)
CDG was well backed last year if I remember rightly but didn't get in. Would certainly be a 'story' with Moffatt returning from illness. 5th in a Scottish National as well as that win in the Will Hill.
I hoovered up the 150 down to 120 Northern Alliane last night, now down to 75.
4th in the Jewson 2 years ago and winner of the Kerry National last season, not beaten far in this seasons renewal off top weight he gets in on 10st 8lb and has been crying out for a severe stamina test.
Also like:
Chief Dan George
Calgary Bay
State of Play
Big Fella Thanks
4th in the Jewson 2 years ago and winner of the Kerry National last season, not beaten far in this seasons renewal off top weight he gets in on 10st 8lb and has been crying out for a severe stamina test.
Also like:
Chief Dan George
Calgary Bay
State of Play
Big Fella Thanks
Chief Dan George at 50/1 for me. Racing off 148 (he won off 142 in 2010 WH Trophy). Has form on good ground, and he was 5th in Scottish National off 139 two years ago. Spring horse, reliable, only fallen once in his career (last time out funnily enough).
Others that interest me at tasty prices are:
1) Grand Slam Hero: Racing off 143 (won cl2 handicap at Ffos Las 3 starts ago off 138); likes good ground (won summer plate in 2010 off 129). Been on the go since May 2010 so unconventional campaign for a national winner. And his last five races read FP18P so you clearly can't rely on him. However, at 160 on here that's priced in.
2) West End Rocker: Won gd3 3m5f race in the mud up at Warwick in January off 133 (racing off 141 on Saturday). PU nto at Haydock in the Silver by Nature race but that was only a month after his Warwick exertions, so can possibly be excused. Progressive stayer?
Others that interest me at tasty prices are:
1) Grand Slam Hero: Racing off 143 (won cl2 handicap at Ffos Las 3 starts ago off 138); likes good ground (won summer plate in 2010 off 129). Been on the go since May 2010 so unconventional campaign for a national winner. And his last five races read FP18P so you clearly can't rely on him. However, at 160 on here that's priced in.
2) West End Rocker: Won gd3 3m5f race in the mud up at Warwick in January off 133 (racing off 141 on Saturday). PU nto at Haydock in the Silver by Nature race but that was only a month after his Warwick exertions, so can possibly be excused. Progressive stayer?
Excellent!! - And as Always Waining was ballotted out I lumped on in the Topham!!
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