State Of Play

Very much agree having backed it last year too. Had some of the 33/1 available with Paddy Power this morning prior to the weights being released. Now see that they are offering 5 places from 11.30, yet at 10.00am it was only 4?!?!

Having had an exhaustive conversation, the market has altered significantly and they can now offer the additional place.... anyone think this is right/fair??

got it @ 44s here a couple of months ago. will it defo make the race at number 47 in the weights?

#47 is basically guaranteed James, loads will pull out.

that does sound a bit harsh steve and yep will definitely get in the race but hes too old now i think. i backed him 2 years ago when he made the frame and ran well again last year. but hes a year old think only 4lbs lower which isnt enough for me.

i dont think last years race was even that strong ok he was 3rd but still beaten 25 lengths.

He might sneak a place again if age hasnt caught up with him and just to rub salt into the wound steve he will probably finish 5th now[;)] but he cant possible win the race

If you consider the National as a race for speciailists then it is more interesting to look at relative weights than ratings.  He's 10lb better off with the winner who is now carrying top weight and hasnt shown much since and 9lb better off with Big Fella Thanks.

For the 3rd year running I have had a good EW bet on this horse.

Agreed there is probably something in there that is unexposed (Tidal Bay would be very interesting if he ran) but SOP has an excellent record in big handicaps, jumps and stays as well as any and for what it's worth, he was never nearer than at the end last year and he just couldn't get on terms - I expect he will be closer to the pace this time round

thedemps is correct in that relative weight is more important.
He carried 11-5 last year.
The horse will feel let loose off 10-6.
11yo is not old for a National winner especially a former Hennessy and Charlie Hall winner.

Has been aimed at this race all year, very lightly raced with only 24 lifetime starts in a relatively injury free career.

When I saw his weight to be carried, he was the one that leapt off the page, even though don't normally favour a horse who has run in the race before

He carried 10.11 last year and 11.2 in 2009,but agree with your general sentiments.

Has a horse ever won the National first time out.  I remember Mely Moss ran 2nd but 1st time out I cant remember any.  There is always a first time but generally the winner has ran at least 4 times.

evans only swan song??

He could improve on last years race. He will be running fresh and this could put him bang up there. He only has 10st 6 and if you think about all he has to do is improve 1L at every fence and the lighter weight could help with that, he could win it. I have missed out on the price but i will back him.

The performances of Kauto and Denman at 11YO this week have strengthened my opinion that this horse is way overpriced.  He has only had 24 races in his career and only 3 in the last 2 years - 2 nationals and one pulled up

He has been trained with this race in mind for 12 months and seems to love the course and he definitely has the touch of clss you need to win this race

If I remember rightly after winning the hennessey he was favourite for the 2007 Gold Cup in which he was 12L behind Kauto Star in 2007 - a repeat would have put him 6th in the 2011 Gold Cup yet he runs off 10-6 and is 25/1

My advice - since he looks very solid for a place, pick a couple out for EW doubles with him - I have gone with Weapons Amnesty and Time for Rupert for next year's Gold Cup.  With both of them 20/1+ the place double is over 40/1

Backed him last two years running personally i think if he couldnt win before cant see him doing it this year.He will finish but feel he will be out of the frame 6/10th is probably the best finish i anticipate,hope i am right bcoz will not be backing him this year.

^ agree with that.

His chance has been and gone imv

No doubt give you a run for your money, but can't see him winning it

Still i think he´s an each way banker, biggest price he has been for months now. won´t win imo

Can't understand how people think just because he didn't win the race in the last two years that he can't win it this.He ran an excellent race in 2009 when a mistake at beechers second time around cost him valuable ground and momentum then also in 2010 when despite being hampered when in a decent position going out on the second circuit he stayed on from a very long way back to finish a very respectable third.Off a fantastic racing weight with guarenteed stamina,ability to act around the course on the likely decent surface,with a great record fresh and invaluable experience over the unique demands of the fences he is one of only a handful who have the right credentials to win it.The final point abount the fences is the key.Of the last 10 grand nationals 7 have been won by horses who had previously ran over the fences.The Midnight Club,What A Friend,Silver By Nature,Ballabrigs,Oscar Time,Bluesea Cracker and Quinz are all shorter in the betting yet all lack what is an important ingredient in what is usually needed to win it

job done.. my local barman said to go for summit EW, not my kind of bet but he and (me) is king for the day, after 13 seconds my mrs picks the winner, with bratwürst in mouth, well done ginger