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28 Dec 10
17:21
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Date Joined:
30 Mar 08
At last the weather has cleared up and below are my thoughts on the big handicap in Ireland tomorrow. As always I have approached it initially from a trends based approach. The trends I have found for the race are:
Age 6-8
2-4 runs season
3-12 runs chases
1-7 runs handicap chases
Max 22 lifetime starts
Won 1-3 chases
Won max 1 handicap chase
Not run in 25k+ race this season
Placed in 20k+ chase
Placed in a handicap chase
Not won more than 1 chase over 3 miles
Max 3 finishes in 3m handicaps
21-49 days rest
Top 5 last time out
1-3 Seasons chasing
Won 15+ field
Carrying max 10st 11
Running off a mark of max 124 (taking off rider's claim if necessary)
Of these, the last 10 winners bar Cane Brake, all scored at least 16. Cane Brake however went on to be beaten not too far in that year's Gold Cup, however, there doesn't seem to be any horse of that calibre in the race this year.
This year's top scorers
16 - Undergraduate, Old Si, The Burrow Vic and Glenquest.
Selections
Glenquest - 12/1 Paddy Power (Each way first 5 places)
Of the shortlist of four he's the most solid and for me is the one of the most likely in the race to win it. Opened up nicely this year at Galway on ground to quick for him before taking a step up to come second in the Troytown last time out. He's been raised 6lbs for that but he pulled nicely clear of the third and his mark of 123 still seems fair. He loves heavy ground and has only been out of the placings once on it, over an inadequate trip, so he's sure to handle the trip and he still remains relatively unexposed at the trip with only 4 runs over fences at 3 miles (including an early unseat). He only has 10st 2 on his back, and in a race where lightweights do well and he has to run a massive race.
The Burrow Vic - 25/1 Paddy Power (Each way first 5 places)
After his first win over hurdles his trainer stated that he 'needs 3 miles', so it's perhaps surprising that since then he's only run twice over the trip. First time was in a novice handicap hurdle when he came 3rd to Quite De La Roque (pulling 16l clear of 4th in a 25 runner field). That form has been franked with the winner coming 2nd in the Grade 1 novice chase at Leopardstown today. The second time he won at Sligo last time out. He only won by 1.25l but he travelled by far the best horse in the race and cruised to the last, only having to be got at late when another horse came late too. He's been raised 13lbs for that, which may seem harsh, but he definitely won with a fair bit in hand. His form on heavy is 54313, so he'll obviously handle the conditions well. Like Glenquest he's off a featherweight (9st 10) and is very unexposed at the trip, so at 25/1 he rates good value.
Other horses I looked at were Oscar Looby and Old Si. Old Si if back to his Galway form from last year will be one of the main contenders, however there's a question mark over the trip for him. Oscar Looby I liked as on the pick of his form he's well handicapped, but even though he's won at the trip (only a 3 runner slow affair) he also has a quesiton mark at the trip. Also he's got a 7lb claimer, with Jered getting Carberry's assistance, so he may not be that well fancied.
Selections
1.5pt E/W Glenquest 12/1
1pt E/W The Burrow Vic 25/1
http://extremeconviction.blogspot.com/
GL EC
Age 6-8
2-4 runs season
3-12 runs chases
1-7 runs handicap chases
Max 22 lifetime starts
Won 1-3 chases
Won max 1 handicap chase
Not run in 25k+ race this season
Placed in 20k+ chase
Placed in a handicap chase
Not won more than 1 chase over 3 miles
Max 3 finishes in 3m handicaps
21-49 days rest
Top 5 last time out
1-3 Seasons chasing
Won 15+ field
Carrying max 10st 11
Running off a mark of max 124 (taking off rider's claim if necessary)
Of these, the last 10 winners bar Cane Brake, all scored at least 16. Cane Brake however went on to be beaten not too far in that year's Gold Cup, however, there doesn't seem to be any horse of that calibre in the race this year.
This year's top scorers
16 - Undergraduate, Old Si, The Burrow Vic and Glenquest.
Selections
Glenquest - 12/1 Paddy Power (Each way first 5 places)
Of the shortlist of four he's the most solid and for me is the one of the most likely in the race to win it. Opened up nicely this year at Galway on ground to quick for him before taking a step up to come second in the Troytown last time out. He's been raised 6lbs for that but he pulled nicely clear of the third and his mark of 123 still seems fair. He loves heavy ground and has only been out of the placings once on it, over an inadequate trip, so he's sure to handle the trip and he still remains relatively unexposed at the trip with only 4 runs over fences at 3 miles (including an early unseat). He only has 10st 2 on his back, and in a race where lightweights do well and he has to run a massive race.
The Burrow Vic - 25/1 Paddy Power (Each way first 5 places)
After his first win over hurdles his trainer stated that he 'needs 3 miles', so it's perhaps surprising that since then he's only run twice over the trip. First time was in a novice handicap hurdle when he came 3rd to Quite De La Roque (pulling 16l clear of 4th in a 25 runner field). That form has been franked with the winner coming 2nd in the Grade 1 novice chase at Leopardstown today. The second time he won at Sligo last time out. He only won by 1.25l but he travelled by far the best horse in the race and cruised to the last, only having to be got at late when another horse came late too. He's been raised 13lbs for that, which may seem harsh, but he definitely won with a fair bit in hand. His form on heavy is 54313, so he'll obviously handle the conditions well. Like Glenquest he's off a featherweight (9st 10) and is very unexposed at the trip, so at 25/1 he rates good value.
Other horses I looked at were Oscar Looby and Old Si. Old Si if back to his Galway form from last year will be one of the main contenders, however there's a question mark over the trip for him. Oscar Looby I liked as on the pick of his form he's well handicapped, but even though he's won at the trip (only a 3 runner slow affair) he also has a quesiton mark at the trip. Also he's got a 7lb claimer, with Jered getting Carberry's assistance, so he may not be that well fancied.
Selections
1.5pt E/W Glenquest 12/1
1pt E/W The Burrow Vic 25/1
http://extremeconviction.blogspot.com/
GL EC
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Looks like Glenquest is a NR, will look again and post updated bets later.
Got Attitude will do for me (in the forecast with CM obviously) 
the form in the book is there for all to see
regarding skippers brig.
trainer appears to have them sweet for this meet.
goes on the ground, 3m no issue.
pomme tiepy is a bit slow but could go close
as its so low in the handicap.
i like streets of gold but doesnot look well enough in.
becauseicouldntsee just failed in getting clear
at the festival, and there may be some improvement
but that was good ground and a mark of 135 means
that it will have to improve to win imo, one for the shortlist.
regarding skippers brig.
trainer appears to have them sweet for this meet.
goes on the ground, 3m no issue.
pomme tiepy is a bit slow but could go close
as its so low in the handicap.
i like streets of gold but doesnot look well enough in.
becauseicouldntsee just failed in getting clear
at the festival, and there may be some improvement
but that was good ground and a mark of 135 means
that it will have to improve to win imo, one for the shortlist.
Oscar Looby - 33/1 Will Hill
Probably the best handicapped horse in the field on his piece of form when he beat Alpha Ridge and Telenor. Can't see too many negatives on him, trip maybe a slight question (only won once over 3miles - slow time), though interestingly 4 of the last 10 winners had not won at the trip yet. Also he has a claimer on - but 5/10 winners have been riden by a jockey claiming. Positives are he has 7lbs off his back so only has 10st 9 on his back and he'll love the heavy ground (form with heavy in F121314). Also it's interesting his trainer says he believes he's better going left handed. Most his form recently has been RH and looking at his form when he's run on LH tracks his form is 321211PF (1211 on heavy - only being beaten by Gr1 winning Kempes). He gets on well in big fields (form in 16+ is 33111FP) and it's interesting he has first time cheek pieces on here, which could just make him concentrate a bit. At the forecast odds he is a worth a bet.
Selections
1.5pt E/W The Burrow Vic 25/1 (5 places) BOG
1 pt E/W Oscar Looby 33/1 (4 places) BOG
Probably the best handicapped horse in the field on his piece of form when he beat Alpha Ridge and Telenor. Can't see too many negatives on him, trip maybe a slight question (only won once over 3miles - slow time), though interestingly 4 of the last 10 winners had not won at the trip yet. Also he has a claimer on - but 5/10 winners have been riden by a jockey claiming. Positives are he has 7lbs off his back so only has 10st 9 on his back and he'll love the heavy ground (form with heavy in F121314). Also it's interesting his trainer says he believes he's better going left handed. Most his form recently has been RH and looking at his form when he's run on LH tracks his form is 321211PF (1211 on heavy - only being beaten by Gr1 winning Kempes). He gets on well in big fields (form in 16+ is 33111FP) and it's interesting he has first time cheek pieces on here, which could just make him concentrate a bit. At the forecast odds he is a worth a bet.
Selections
1.5pt E/W The Burrow Vic 25/1 (5 places) BOG
1 pt E/W Oscar Looby 33/1 (4 places) BOG
EC, I backed Oscar Looby in the Munster National when he looked to be going great on the second circuit. Made one or two tiny errors but when the race started to warm up he dropped out quickly. Not sure he does get the trip, but at least you've got a big price.
Clan Tara is an interesting one, goes well fresh, was runner-up to Pandorama on debut last season, and has been mentioned as a national type horse in the making by his trainer in the past. A few quid win only on him for me.
Clan Tara is an interesting one, goes well fresh, was runner-up to Pandorama on debut last season, and has been mentioned as a national type horse in the making by his trainer in the past. A few quid win only on him for me.
Great summary EC, appreciate you taking the time to post this.
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