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21 Dec 10
16:09
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Date Joined:
30 Mar 08
The first National of the season is upon us, so let's up it goes ahead at some point. Below are my initial thoughts. I'll approach it to begin with from a statistical approach as always.
Age 6-9
OR 131-152
11st Max
1-2 runs season
14+ runs total
Won at Chepstow if run there
Won over 3m+
Won 2-5 Chases
Won MAX 2 chases
Run in class2+ season
Placed in a graded chase
If run in handicaps placed in a graded one
Placed in a 26f+ handicap
140+ Chase RPR
20-54 day break
Top 4 last time out
Not out of the top 4 this season
Placed in 17+ field
Run over 30f+
2nd/3rd season chaser
Of these 20 stats, all of the last 10 winners have scored at least 17. The top scores for this year are as follows;
18 - Bluesea Cracker
17 - Arbor Supreme, Ballyfitz
16 - Dream Alliance
15 - Synchronised, Dance Island, Maktu, Hello Bud, Lochan Laca, Royal Rosa, Silver by Nature
Synchronised + Watamu Bay
Personally find it hard to see him winning off this weight. To put in into perspective the only horses to carry at least this much weight to victory in the races history were Carvill's Hill, Bonanza Boy and Master Oats. All three were grade one class on the day, and in fact the latter won the Gold Cup 3 months later. Also all three had won the rehearsal chase that season over the course (since moved to Newcastle and abandoned this season).
Looking at it from an RPR perspective all the last 10 winners (bar the Irish Trained Notre Pere) had achieved an RPR of at least 6lbs in excess of it's OR, Synchronised has not. Also All the last 10 winners have run an RPR in this raise of at least 13lbs above it's OR. To do Synchronised would have to run to a mark of 169, which to be honest seems unlikely.
The race that Synchronised won as novice, has a very good record for those in their first season chasing so it wasn't the biggest shock to see him win. He needed reminders throughout the race so perhaps the drop in trip by half a mile won't be in his favour either. It must be also noted that there were big question marks over his jumping before that run, so there still has to be a slight doubt in that regard. Also he's not overly big, so giving weight away to quality animal could be hard work for him.
He's a very ground dependent horse, the more bottomless the better, and although I have no idea how the ground will end up, it's only officially good to soft at Chepstow at the moment so this has to be a worry. At the prices there are more than enough reasons to take him on.
I'd have similar worries with regards to Watamu Bay in how well handicapped he is. He also will have a big weight on his back (11st 3) and using typical RPRs he'd have to run to 161+ to win an average Welsh National, on just his 4th start over fences this looks a nigh on impossible task for a horse who's 3 chase RPRs have been 129, 140, 144. In his one start at the course he lost to Balthazar King whilst getting 6lbs from that horse, which is nowhere near to the quality needed to win this race. Since then he's only won a 3 and 5 runner race, both odds. Over hurdles he only ran one RPR greater than 118. At 12/1 he has to rate at poor value also.
Shortlist
My shortlist are the top three in my ratings - Bluesea Cracker (14/1), Arbor Supreme (25/1) and Ballyfitz (33/1).
First of all looking at them at RPRs they have all already achieved an RPR of at least 6lbs in excess of their OR - Arbor Supreme (10), Bluesea Cracker (7), Ballyfitz (18!).
So theoretically Ballyfitz has already run 3 races in his lifetime good enough to win an average Welsh National of this mark, there is also obvious hope for the others to improve. Arbor Supreme ran his mark over 21f which is obviously an inadequate trip for him, so if he produces that kind of performance over this kind of trip (has won over marathon trips before) he can easily find the 4lbs or so improvement needed. Bluesea Cracker won the Irish National last year more easily than the margin suggests, and that being only her 3rd run out of novice company there is surely more to come. Now going through them one by one.
Arbor Supreme (25/1) - Hard to get right, but if he puts his best foot forward he'll definitely be there thereabouts. A winner twice over Marathon trips in Ireland (29f on soft and 30f on good) he should get the trip well and is adaptable with regards to ground. He's falls down on 2 of his 3 stats because of his poor run first time out. However, he wasn't great first time out last season and also even though he won first time out 2 seasons ago Mullins didn't think he had him fully fit, so you'd be inclined to forgive him the run. His form over 3m4f+ over regulation fences is 24110, and was fancied for the Grand National off a similar mark last year before unseating at the chair. Adaptable with regards to ground, with a slightly lower weight than usual, if he's sent over he's sure to run a nice race.
Bluesea Cracker (14/1) - Out of the 3 I've shortlist she's the most consistent as so probably has to rate the most likely winner. Stats she falls down are not out of top 4 this season (unplaced in hurdle prep first time out) and the fact she hasn't run over 30f. It seems a bit harsh to mark her down on this though as she's won an Irish National over 29f on soft ground! She's only up 9lbs for that and it seems more than fair for an unexposed horse over these distances who was also a grade 2 winner as a novice. She ran a great race off a 1lb higher mark at Cheltenham last time, travelling visibly well (travelling miles better than anything else bar Midnight Chase) before blowing up. Obviously much better than that she will run a massive race if she turns up.
Ballyfitz (33/1) - Very in and out horse but if he gets soft ground he'll be a horse to be reckoned with off this declining mark. Loves it soft, with his last 6 runs on ground quicker than soft reading PP0F84. Very well handicapped on his novice chase form there was also room for encouragement last year. Beaten 10l off a 12lb higher mark in Paddy Power on soft ground, staying on over a trip too short (RPR good enough to win this of this mark). He then won on heavy over hurdles at Sandown off a 8lb higher mark. He then ran in this race off a 10lb higher mark last year, beaten 20l. This was especially encouraging as he made a shocking blunder down the back straight and did well to get back into it. He's weighted to beat Silver by Nature on that form and be close to Dream Alliance, and those 2 are much shorter int he betting even though they have shown nothing since. His run first time out can be excused because of the ground and his 4th at Haydock was very promising (off a 14lb higher mark) finishing only behind the exciting trio of Grand Crus, Barafundle (won since) and Peveril. He's obviously likely to hit one but if he doesn't or doesn't make too many mistakes he will go very close off this lenient mark of 134.
It's hard to know yet who will run/what the ground will be/how badly the trainers have been held back with the weather, so I haven't placed any bets yet but will keep this page updated through the week if i do. Lets hope it's on!
http://extremeconviction.blogspot.com/
GL EC
Age 6-9
OR 131-152
11st Max
1-2 runs season
14+ runs total
Won at Chepstow if run there
Won over 3m+
Won 2-5 Chases
Won MAX 2 chases
Run in class2+ season
Placed in a graded chase
If run in handicaps placed in a graded one
Placed in a 26f+ handicap
140+ Chase RPR
20-54 day break
Top 4 last time out
Not out of the top 4 this season
Placed in 17+ field
Run over 30f+
2nd/3rd season chaser
Of these 20 stats, all of the last 10 winners have scored at least 17. The top scores for this year are as follows;
18 - Bluesea Cracker
17 - Arbor Supreme, Ballyfitz
16 - Dream Alliance
15 - Synchronised, Dance Island, Maktu, Hello Bud, Lochan Laca, Royal Rosa, Silver by Nature
Synchronised + Watamu Bay
Personally find it hard to see him winning off this weight. To put in into perspective the only horses to carry at least this much weight to victory in the races history were Carvill's Hill, Bonanza Boy and Master Oats. All three were grade one class on the day, and in fact the latter won the Gold Cup 3 months later. Also all three had won the rehearsal chase that season over the course (since moved to Newcastle and abandoned this season).
Looking at it from an RPR perspective all the last 10 winners (bar the Irish Trained Notre Pere) had achieved an RPR of at least 6lbs in excess of it's OR, Synchronised has not. Also All the last 10 winners have run an RPR in this raise of at least 13lbs above it's OR. To do Synchronised would have to run to a mark of 169, which to be honest seems unlikely.
The race that Synchronised won as novice, has a very good record for those in their first season chasing so it wasn't the biggest shock to see him win. He needed reminders throughout the race so perhaps the drop in trip by half a mile won't be in his favour either. It must be also noted that there were big question marks over his jumping before that run, so there still has to be a slight doubt in that regard. Also he's not overly big, so giving weight away to quality animal could be hard work for him.
He's a very ground dependent horse, the more bottomless the better, and although I have no idea how the ground will end up, it's only officially good to soft at Chepstow at the moment so this has to be a worry. At the prices there are more than enough reasons to take him on.
I'd have similar worries with regards to Watamu Bay in how well handicapped he is. He also will have a big weight on his back (11st 3) and using typical RPRs he'd have to run to 161+ to win an average Welsh National, on just his 4th start over fences this looks a nigh on impossible task for a horse who's 3 chase RPRs have been 129, 140, 144. In his one start at the course he lost to Balthazar King whilst getting 6lbs from that horse, which is nowhere near to the quality needed to win this race. Since then he's only won a 3 and 5 runner race, both odds. Over hurdles he only ran one RPR greater than 118. At 12/1 he has to rate at poor value also.
Shortlist
My shortlist are the top three in my ratings - Bluesea Cracker (14/1), Arbor Supreme (25/1) and Ballyfitz (33/1).
First of all looking at them at RPRs they have all already achieved an RPR of at least 6lbs in excess of their OR - Arbor Supreme (10), Bluesea Cracker (7), Ballyfitz (18!).
So theoretically Ballyfitz has already run 3 races in his lifetime good enough to win an average Welsh National of this mark, there is also obvious hope for the others to improve. Arbor Supreme ran his mark over 21f which is obviously an inadequate trip for him, so if he produces that kind of performance over this kind of trip (has won over marathon trips before) he can easily find the 4lbs or so improvement needed. Bluesea Cracker won the Irish National last year more easily than the margin suggests, and that being only her 3rd run out of novice company there is surely more to come. Now going through them one by one.
Arbor Supreme (25/1) - Hard to get right, but if he puts his best foot forward he'll definitely be there thereabouts. A winner twice over Marathon trips in Ireland (29f on soft and 30f on good) he should get the trip well and is adaptable with regards to ground. He's falls down on 2 of his 3 stats because of his poor run first time out. However, he wasn't great first time out last season and also even though he won first time out 2 seasons ago Mullins didn't think he had him fully fit, so you'd be inclined to forgive him the run. His form over 3m4f+ over regulation fences is 24110, and was fancied for the Grand National off a similar mark last year before unseating at the chair. Adaptable with regards to ground, with a slightly lower weight than usual, if he's sent over he's sure to run a nice race.
Bluesea Cracker (14/1) - Out of the 3 I've shortlist she's the most consistent as so probably has to rate the most likely winner. Stats she falls down are not out of top 4 this season (unplaced in hurdle prep first time out) and the fact she hasn't run over 30f. It seems a bit harsh to mark her down on this though as she's won an Irish National over 29f on soft ground! She's only up 9lbs for that and it seems more than fair for an unexposed horse over these distances who was also a grade 2 winner as a novice. She ran a great race off a 1lb higher mark at Cheltenham last time, travelling visibly well (travelling miles better than anything else bar Midnight Chase) before blowing up. Obviously much better than that she will run a massive race if she turns up.
Ballyfitz (33/1) - Very in and out horse but if he gets soft ground he'll be a horse to be reckoned with off this declining mark. Loves it soft, with his last 6 runs on ground quicker than soft reading PP0F84. Very well handicapped on his novice chase form there was also room for encouragement last year. Beaten 10l off a 12lb higher mark in Paddy Power on soft ground, staying on over a trip too short (RPR good enough to win this of this mark). He then won on heavy over hurdles at Sandown off a 8lb higher mark. He then ran in this race off a 10lb higher mark last year, beaten 20l. This was especially encouraging as he made a shocking blunder down the back straight and did well to get back into it. He's weighted to beat Silver by Nature on that form and be close to Dream Alliance, and those 2 are much shorter int he betting even though they have shown nothing since. His run first time out can be excused because of the ground and his 4th at Haydock was very promising (off a 14lb higher mark) finishing only behind the exciting trio of Grand Crus, Barafundle (won since) and Peveril. He's obviously likely to hit one but if he doesn't or doesn't make too many mistakes he will go very close off this lenient mark of 134.
It's hard to know yet who will run/what the ground will be/how badly the trainers have been held back with the weather, so I haven't placed any bets yet but will keep this page updated through the week if i do. Lets hope it's on!
http://extremeconviction.blogspot.com/
GL EC
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Top post as ever EC.Agree with you regarding Bluesea Cracker ....was tanking along last time out before blowing up.
Fair few typos, probably should have read through it before i posted!
Thanks hemsby. Agree Bluesea Cracker is the most likely winner.
Thanks hemsby. Agree Bluesea Cracker is the most likely winner.
EC, I'm with you re: Bluesea. She travels and jumps really well.
She ran a blinding trial at Cheltenham.
I thought she won the Irish National this year with a bit up her sleeve so a rise of 9lbs for that win is by no means harsh.
If she wins she will pay for my Christmas!
She ran a blinding trial at Cheltenham.
I thought she won the Irish National this year with a bit up her sleeve so a rise of 9lbs for that win is by no means harsh.
If she wins she will pay for my Christmas!
Looked only danger coming down hill behind Midnight Chase, until blew up i presume should be spot on now, danger is Maktu.
Ballyfitz???? You having a laugh??? Youve somehow made a case for him but I backed him in the race last year and vowed never to back him over fences again. Hes bloody useful over hurdles but useless over fences, regardless of the ground (hes been beaten a total of 102 lengths on his 3 last completed starts over them, including twice on heavy). The last 10 year old to win was Riverside Boy a long, long time ago. That said, if he does get round he may reach the frame. If only 4 finish 
I would also back Ballyfitz if he runs but I am 99% sure that NTD said he would be looking for a hurdle next to build back his confidence.
Can anybody confirm otherwise?
Can anybody confirm otherwise?
Very hard to have a bet here until we know it will be on and we know how likely it is that an Irish horse can get over, but will be all over Bluesea if she runs. Becauseicouldntsee would also be interesting if coming here instead of Leopardstown.
They are calling the inspection tomorrow. I doubt it will be on.
fwiw, i've had a few quid on Giles Cross & a bit more on Ballyfoy.
fwiw, i've had a few quid on Giles Cross & a bit more on Ballyfoy.
Like the look of one lurking just out the handicap who was running a stormer at Liverpool till the jockey jumped off. Hoping for no worse than soft though. Fingers crossed the meeting goes ahead although looks unlikely.
Another fine piece of work EC. I tried to rate it 5 stars but the software seems buggy. I hope more forumites start using the rating system on the new beta forum, it's the best way, imo,of discouraging some of the nonsense that gets posted without people getting into slagging matches.
Well a nice read...
Haven't been on for a while, but love the welsh national, so will have a opinion.
In regards to your stats extreme..well stats are something that I like to use, but in this years case I think they should be used with caution.
Lets start with ballyfitz. Have always liked him and he is very well handicapped on old form, but for one, his jumping is a concern, unless they maybe considered bouncing him back out in front maybe with first time blinkers, cause for me he has become a horse that has lost some interest in the game and no longer convinces me, he has a big handicap in him, even though he is extremely well weighted on old form. He is however, easily passed over.
On to Bluesea Cracker, this mare can't win and is a ridiculous price in my opinion. She doesn't look well handicapped to me at least. In my opinion she won a very sub-standard irish national. Off 140 here and racing against decent opposition, she will be found out for me although the softer ground she gets here will suit. She has also never won left handed and being a mare who isn't in great form anyone looking to take short prices about her needn't bother.
Of the three, the one I do like is Arbor Supreme. The main problem here, is the owner has the favourite and considering he still trades at 36 on here and is trained by a top trainer, i'd say the Grand National is still his aim although if he did turn up he could be dangerous at a nice price, as, I do feel this race, on this ground, would suit him much better. Advice hold fire, until you know he's a runner..
Wasn't keen on Synchronised until they moved the race, the extra time has done him a favour and for me is a worthy fav. Tenderly handled last time and liking for the course and likely ground. My only concern with him is he still lacks some experience but for me he should be shorter and not sure he should be ignored lightly at the 7's.
The one i do like in this and have backed is Maktu. An improving horse, who is progressing with racing. For me he brings the best handicap form to the table. Beaten by an extremely well handicapped horse last time in king fontaine at haydock, jumping well, he went down all guns blazing in a driving finish. Their was no no disgrace in this run, having to give the winner 5lbs and a winner that has gone on to beat dance island 11l off a 5lb higher mark. A line through the form gives him the beating of the under priced dance island who should be 20's for this for me. You may argue about the third horse not franking the form, but he had run twice on the flat before this so was fit.
People may argue about the trainer, but he has always been capable as he showed when winning the welsh national with supreme glory many moons ago. Out of interest he also prepped supreme glory at haydock before he won the welsh.
A certainty to come on for the run, he is for me ew a pleasure.
Of the others
Silver by nature, was on this last year, but trainer not in good form and off a stiff mark this year. The man on board also isn't helping.
Watuma Bay has to be respected because of the trainer and his record in this. Can't win off the back of 2, 5 runner novice chases and a mark of 147. I'll crack the jokes.
God knows what dream alliance will do, and at 14's and his overall profile, hardly screams double welsh national winner. Add to which he is 9lbs higher than last year.
The one i did like at a price because his handicap form has worked out so well is Summery Justice. But i have made fatal errors backing horses like him before. Inexperience will probably do for him though and it is with regret he is passed over on this occasion. Although a couple of pounds will be invested as a saver, but shouldn't be.
Arbor Supreme i don't think will run.
Something else i have probably missed but won't be overlooking exmoor ranger at a price.
So Maktu, synchronised and exmoor ranger for me.
Brutal analysis please don't be offended just an opinion.
Be lucky
Haven't been on for a while, but love the welsh national, so will have a opinion.
In regards to your stats extreme..well stats are something that I like to use, but in this years case I think they should be used with caution.
Lets start with ballyfitz. Have always liked him and he is very well handicapped on old form, but for one, his jumping is a concern, unless they maybe considered bouncing him back out in front maybe with first time blinkers, cause for me he has become a horse that has lost some interest in the game and no longer convinces me, he has a big handicap in him, even though he is extremely well weighted on old form. He is however, easily passed over.
On to Bluesea Cracker, this mare can't win and is a ridiculous price in my opinion. She doesn't look well handicapped to me at least. In my opinion she won a very sub-standard irish national. Off 140 here and racing against decent opposition, she will be found out for me although the softer ground she gets here will suit. She has also never won left handed and being a mare who isn't in great form anyone looking to take short prices about her needn't bother.
Of the three, the one I do like is Arbor Supreme. The main problem here, is the owner has the favourite and considering he still trades at 36 on here and is trained by a top trainer, i'd say the Grand National is still his aim although if he did turn up he could be dangerous at a nice price, as, I do feel this race, on this ground, would suit him much better. Advice hold fire, until you know he's a runner..
Wasn't keen on Synchronised until they moved the race, the extra time has done him a favour and for me is a worthy fav. Tenderly handled last time and liking for the course and likely ground. My only concern with him is he still lacks some experience but for me he should be shorter and not sure he should be ignored lightly at the 7's.
The one i do like in this and have backed is Maktu. An improving horse, who is progressing with racing. For me he brings the best handicap form to the table. Beaten by an extremely well handicapped horse last time in king fontaine at haydock, jumping well, he went down all guns blazing in a driving finish. Their was no no disgrace in this run, having to give the winner 5lbs and a winner that has gone on to beat dance island 11l off a 5lb higher mark. A line through the form gives him the beating of the under priced dance island who should be 20's for this for me. You may argue about the third horse not franking the form, but he had run twice on the flat before this so was fit.
People may argue about the trainer, but he has always been capable as he showed when winning the welsh national with supreme glory many moons ago. Out of interest he also prepped supreme glory at haydock before he won the welsh.
A certainty to come on for the run, he is for me ew a pleasure.
Of the others
Silver by nature, was on this last year, but trainer not in good form and off a stiff mark this year. The man on board also isn't helping.
Watuma Bay has to be respected because of the trainer and his record in this. Can't win off the back of 2, 5 runner novice chases and a mark of 147. I'll crack the jokes.
God knows what dream alliance will do, and at 14's and his overall profile, hardly screams double welsh national winner. Add to which he is 9lbs higher than last year.
The one i did like at a price because his handicap form has worked out so well is Summery Justice. But i have made fatal errors backing horses like him before. Inexperience will probably do for him though and it is with regret he is passed over on this occasion. Although a couple of pounds will be invested as a saver, but shouldn't be.
Arbor Supreme i don't think will run.
Something else i have probably missed but won't be overlooking exmoor ranger at a price.
So Maktu, synchronised and exmoor ranger for me.
Brutal analysis please don't be offended just an opinion.
Be lucky
harry, I own a share in Dream Alliance and your view above is, unfortunately, on the money. I am going in hope rather than expectation.
For what its worth it does not seem as strong a race as last year and if our guy is on a going day he will be in the shake up.
Another exellent write up EC.
For what its worth it does not seem as strong a race as last year and if our guy is on a going day he will be in the shake up.
Another exellent write up EC.
Maktu and Summery Justice for me on at 20 and 25 S J's bangor run has worked out fantastically well
Still Ballyfoy and Giles Cross for me. Seems like I backed them yonks ago.
exmoor ranger, summery justice, maktu... and ballyfitz and jaunty journeys (if run and at decent prices)
Ballyfitz not in the 3m hurdle anymore so looks like the welsh national will be his next race.
Harry Skelton to ride Giles Cross. He seems to get on a few fancied ones for Dartnall. He was on Richards Sundances who finished 2nd to Blazing Bailye at the weekend.
Totally agree with you down with slight preference for Summary Justice as less exposed and stable coming into form
I'm already behind having backed Bluesea.
Glutton for punishment I've had 3 more pops: small on Dance Island at 12-1: good stats fit and like the Burton Port run. Imoncloudnine each way the main bet at 25-1: thought he'd have gone close at Aintree before the jockey fell off him, stays well course an unknown. Final small each way is Ballyfitz- reminds me a bit of l'Aventure who was well exposed but put it all together on the day- dangerously well treated if he does and 33-1. Can't have Synchronised who will surely trade bigger in running.
Glutton for punishment I've had 3 more pops: small on Dance Island at 12-1: good stats fit and like the Burton Port run. Imoncloudnine each way the main bet at 25-1: thought he'd have gone close at Aintree before the jockey fell off him, stays well course an unknown. Final small each way is Ballyfitz- reminds me a bit of l'Aventure who was well exposed but put it all together on the day- dangerously well treated if he does and 33-1. Can't have Synchronised who will surely trade bigger in running.
the wonderful MT has selected Ballyfoy
that will do for me.
that will do for me.
backed it in becher chase was fancied costello fell out side door was going well think its goood price am going to give it another chance
FCH, What chance would you give Dance Island who beat you over hurdles at Chepstow and the next run you went and won this race. Good Luck for Saturday but I think this one could be well handicapped on his run behind Burton Port.
having royal rosa e/w myself,bit long in the tooth and a long time since his last win but ran a great race lto and fits in with quite a lot of the stats,johnsons record at chepstow is poor but the negatives are factored into the price for me and i do like a low weight in such a race.
gl all,lets hope we beat the weather this weekend.
gl all,lets hope we beat the weather this weekend.
Unlucky SJ backers.
Ballyfitz runs with first time cheek pieces.
Ballyfitz runs with first time cheek pieces.
Exmoor Ranger for me, looks in decent nick coming into the race, 100% on soft ground(ok i know you cant trust going reports) caveat was the extra distance but at 25-1 you cant have everything
Imoncloudnine is the ew value for me. Was looking very good in Becher Chase before unseating. Obviously his stamina had yet to be tested and that is my main concern over 3m5f in very soft ground.
My other two to focus on are Maktu (but price is a little short) and Ballyfoy who could have ideal conditions.
My other two to focus on are Maktu (but price is a little short) and Ballyfoy who could have ideal conditions.
Agree with Sintonian - reckon Giles Cross will run a very big race. Usually needs run first time so wouldn't be put off by Cheltenham re-appearance, likes Chepstow and heavy going. Always looked a shell of a horse who is probably just coming to his physical peak. I know in theory he has alot to make up with on Synchronized but as I say I think he will be a stronger horse this year, he is 10lb better off with a lovely racing weight in the likely bottomless ground and I do think the track will play a big part here. Wouldn't be surprised is it's Pricewise selection
So keen on Arbor Supreme, has a massive chance for me.
Below are my thoughts on the runner with the scores they achieved on my trends. Also looking back I made a slight typo, one of the points reads 'Max 2 Chase Wins' should be 'Max 2 handicap Chase Wins'
1. Silver By Nature - 15/20 on stats
Has a very good profile for the race apart from his weight. Can let him off for his run first time out this season, as he usually comes on nicely for his first start and the ground would have been to far too quick for him. However, he is one of the horses in the field who conditions will suit down to the ground and is sure to run a big race. His 18lb higher mark will no doubt anchor him and place claims are probably the best that he can hope for. Also it should be noted Lucinda Russell hasn't had a winner since November.
2. Dream Alliance - 16/20
Winner of this last year off a 9lb higher mark. However, Cheek pieces haven't shown the same effect since and he has shown nothing. He can't be put up as bet for me as he hasn't finished 7 of his last 9 starts (6/7 over fences) and his weight of 11st7 is going to make it a lot hard than the 10st 8 of last season.
3. Synchronised - 16/ 20
See top of thread for my in detail thoughts on him. 9/2 is no value now in a 20 runner handicap off 150.
4. Watamu Bay - 10/20
See above aswell - very tough race for such an inexperienced novice off that kind of weight.
5. Exmoor Ranger - 15/20
Interesting one. No idea what to make of the ground for him. His best wins over both hurdles and fences have been on soft ground - however, trainer has always said he's better on a quicker surface. Extra distance is a question mark and the fact his form in handicaps is F7712B443 (win off 135 with a 7lb claimer aswell in a class 3) it's hard to see where the improvements going to come to help him win this off 145.
6. Eric's Charm - 13/20
Admirable sort who's done me favours in the past - but his best days look far behind him.
7. Arbor Supreme - 17/20
One of my main fancies back in December at the original 5 day entries. Very hard to get right - but conditions should suit and can run a nice weight with only 10st10 on his back taking into account the claim. Further details on original posting.
8. Dance Island - 15/20
Should love the ground being by Turtle Island, however, apart from his win against Dream Alliance over hurdles his form on soft or worse is 4846543. His one win over hurdles was in a handicap of 105, before struggling when he hit the 110s. He's handicapped on one run in a slow run end of season novice chase, and for that reason I would pass on him at the prices.
9. Ballyfoy - 12/20
Outclassed for me. Seems happy enough in Class 3s. But has always struggled when stepped up in class. Won two Lingfield heavy ground races off top weights (129 and 124), but this is a whole different league off 136. To win an average renewal he'd have to be a mid to high 140s horse off this kind of mark, and looking through his form there is absolutely nothing that would point to that.
10. Maktu - 14/20
Seemed very progressive at the end of last season having started to look held of marks in the 120s. However, took a big step up on that last 2 runs both at Haydock. First he won a novice chase on heavy, before first time out chasing home the progressive King Fontaine last time. Conditions should suit off this heavy weight and has shown he goes very well at the course. Trainer won this a while back with Supreme Glory and is sure to have targetted this one at it a while back. Sure to go close but perhaps better value lies elsewhere.
11. Ballyfitz - 17/20
Not much to add from above. Running on 10st 4 he has to run a massive race if his jumping is any good. Form of last run has been franked by Peveril as well as Barafundle since and at a track/on ground he loves he has to go close of his kind of mark. Interestingly he's got first time cheek pieces on which will hopefully help him concentrate on his jumping.
12. I'moncloudnine - 12/20
Another one who looks well held off his handicap mark of 133, and it's hard to see where the improvement would come to make him a 145+ horse. Trip would also be a big worry for me. Form in class 3 or below chases 131141212, above 2P84U.
13. Giles Cross - 12/20
Bit hit and miss - form all in small field and has struggled in bigger fields. Was out on his legs in the Midlands Grand National last year so not 100% marathon trip will suit. Also showed absolutely nothing first time out this year.
14. Royal Rosa - 15/20
Another admirable sort but this looks a bit beyond him. His form in handicaps not over the national fences is 53PP563P54. He's been put up 7lbs for his last run and that for me should see him struggle.
15. Magic Sky - 8/20
Trips got to be a worry for him aswell having been a 2/2.5 miler his whole life. Getting on now, doesn't seem well handicapped, bottom of stats table - readily passed over.
16. Bench Warrant - 9/20
Don't rate his form that much. The way he ran last time would suggest trip is a massive question mark. Pass
17. Flight Leader - 11/20
Not the horse he once was. Will relish soft ground, but having shown nothing this year it's hard to see him playing a part.
18. Theatre Dance - 8/20
No.
19. Dashing George - 13/20
Has a similar chance to Theatre Dance, none.
20. Old Benny - 14/20
If he returned to the form of two seasons ago he would play a part. Hard to see him doing that though, and pulled up in this last year when fancied.
Result
1. Ballyfitz
2. Arbor Supreme
3. Maktu
4. Silver By Nature
Bets
2pt E/W Ballyfitz 20/1
1pt Win Arbor Supreme 16/1
1. Silver By Nature - 15/20 on stats
Has a very good profile for the race apart from his weight. Can let him off for his run first time out this season, as he usually comes on nicely for his first start and the ground would have been to far too quick for him. However, he is one of the horses in the field who conditions will suit down to the ground and is sure to run a big race. His 18lb higher mark will no doubt anchor him and place claims are probably the best that he can hope for. Also it should be noted Lucinda Russell hasn't had a winner since November.
2. Dream Alliance - 16/20
Winner of this last year off a 9lb higher mark. However, Cheek pieces haven't shown the same effect since and he has shown nothing. He can't be put up as bet for me as he hasn't finished 7 of his last 9 starts (6/7 over fences) and his weight of 11st7 is going to make it a lot hard than the 10st 8 of last season.
3. Synchronised - 16/ 20
See top of thread for my in detail thoughts on him. 9/2 is no value now in a 20 runner handicap off 150.
4. Watamu Bay - 10/20
See above aswell - very tough race for such an inexperienced novice off that kind of weight.
5. Exmoor Ranger - 15/20
Interesting one. No idea what to make of the ground for him. His best wins over both hurdles and fences have been on soft ground - however, trainer has always said he's better on a quicker surface. Extra distance is a question mark and the fact his form in handicaps is F7712B443 (win off 135 with a 7lb claimer aswell in a class 3) it's hard to see where the improvements going to come to help him win this off 145.
6. Eric's Charm - 13/20
Admirable sort who's done me favours in the past - but his best days look far behind him.
7. Arbor Supreme - 17/20
One of my main fancies back in December at the original 5 day entries. Very hard to get right - but conditions should suit and can run a nice weight with only 10st10 on his back taking into account the claim. Further details on original posting.
8. Dance Island - 15/20
Should love the ground being by Turtle Island, however, apart from his win against Dream Alliance over hurdles his form on soft or worse is 4846543. His one win over hurdles was in a handicap of 105, before struggling when he hit the 110s. He's handicapped on one run in a slow run end of season novice chase, and for that reason I would pass on him at the prices.
9. Ballyfoy - 12/20
Outclassed for me. Seems happy enough in Class 3s. But has always struggled when stepped up in class. Won two Lingfield heavy ground races off top weights (129 and 124), but this is a whole different league off 136. To win an average renewal he'd have to be a mid to high 140s horse off this kind of mark, and looking through his form there is absolutely nothing that would point to that.
10. Maktu - 14/20
Seemed very progressive at the end of last season having started to look held of marks in the 120s. However, took a big step up on that last 2 runs both at Haydock. First he won a novice chase on heavy, before first time out chasing home the progressive King Fontaine last time. Conditions should suit off this heavy weight and has shown he goes very well at the course. Trainer won this a while back with Supreme Glory and is sure to have targetted this one at it a while back. Sure to go close but perhaps better value lies elsewhere.
11. Ballyfitz - 17/20
Not much to add from above. Running on 10st 4 he has to run a massive race if his jumping is any good. Form of last run has been franked by Peveril as well as Barafundle since and at a track/on ground he loves he has to go close of his kind of mark. Interestingly he's got first time cheek pieces on which will hopefully help him concentrate on his jumping.
12. I'moncloudnine - 12/20
Another one who looks well held off his handicap mark of 133, and it's hard to see where the improvement would come to make him a 145+ horse. Trip would also be a big worry for me. Form in class 3 or below chases 131141212, above 2P84U.
13. Giles Cross - 12/20
Bit hit and miss - form all in small field and has struggled in bigger fields. Was out on his legs in the Midlands Grand National last year so not 100% marathon trip will suit. Also showed absolutely nothing first time out this year.
14. Royal Rosa - 15/20
Another admirable sort but this looks a bit beyond him. His form in handicaps not over the national fences is 53PP563P54. He's been put up 7lbs for his last run and that for me should see him struggle.
15. Magic Sky - 8/20
Trips got to be a worry for him aswell having been a 2/2.5 miler his whole life. Getting on now, doesn't seem well handicapped, bottom of stats table - readily passed over.
16. Bench Warrant - 9/20
Don't rate his form that much. The way he ran last time would suggest trip is a massive question mark. Pass
17. Flight Leader - 11/20
Not the horse he once was. Will relish soft ground, but having shown nothing this year it's hard to see him playing a part.
18. Theatre Dance - 8/20
No.
19. Dashing George - 13/20
Has a similar chance to Theatre Dance, none.
20. Old Benny - 14/20
If he returned to the form of two seasons ago he would play a part. Hard to see him doing that though, and pulled up in this last year when fancied.
Result
1. Ballyfitz
2. Arbor Supreme
3. Maktu
4. Silver By Nature
Bets
2pt E/W Ballyfitz 20/1
1pt Win Arbor Supreme 16/1
charge! good lord where has all the blue on oddschecker come from 
Ballyfoy my main bet,Almagest. Just think he could still be on the up since the switch in yards and his Lingfield wins from last season suggest he will like conditions tomorrow.
Giles Cross concerns me with his jumping, but I did have a punt at the 40/1 mid-December because of his course form and the fact he is better off with the favourite.
Giles Cross concerns me with his jumping, but I did have a punt at the 40/1 mid-December because of his course form and the fact he is better off with the favourite.
Youre sticking by Ballyfitz then. Well good luck. See theres money for him this evening. Maybe someone knows something (i.e. ALL fences have been omitted to keep Nige happy after his moan about Imperial Commander 
) Maktu for me woth a sneaky e/w about Magic Sky.
) Maktu for me woth a sneaky e/w about Magic Sky.
everybody keeps mentioning his jumping problems, but not many are going to be spring heeled and jumping perfectly out of the mud, probably a slow early pace will help too
Think you have all over looked Dream Alliance expect him to go very very close tomorrow.
Also the other one I like is Imoncloudnine although think the key is whether he settles early on if he does cant see the distance being an inconvenience.
GL all.
Also the other one I like is Imoncloudnine although think the key is whether he settles early on if he does cant see the distance being an inconvenience.
GL all.
Very interesting now..
Well i do believe, people really have hit the glue backing ballyfitz into 16's.
Went back through the form again and yes he is well handicapped on old form in small field novice chases..but he cannot jump, cheekpieces will help.
I will ask one question though, why is paddy brennan not riding him??he could do the weight and hasn't even bothered..good luck with this project.
Other people that have been hitting the glue pot are those silly people backing this dance island into a ridiculous price, he will hate this ground and a place lay is advised.
Maktu is short enough but has at least got strong form claims and those on at nice prices will be quite content he'll go close.
Arbor supreme well am gutted i haven't had nice prices on him. He should be shorter imo and he is the one who could end up the gamble tomorrow if the ground isn't to soft for him that would be my main worry for him. The Grand National remains the aim.
Watuma Bay has his ground but a mark of 147 for a novice really is pushing it. He would have to be special and i get the feeling he isn't..
Giles Cross isn't good enough and should be 33's
Exmoor ranger is a horse i like and he may like the ground. His jumping still remains a concern though and although denis o'regan booked, i'm not sure he is going to want this. Hope he goes well for those on, but he is high risk.
Sychronised can still go well and is a worthy fav.
For me
Their is 3 to concentrate on Maktu, Sychronised and Arbor Supreme
A place lay on dance island is also advised
Be lucky
Well i do believe, people really have hit the glue backing ballyfitz into 16's.
Went back through the form again and yes he is well handicapped on old form in small field novice chases..but he cannot jump, cheekpieces will help.
I will ask one question though, why is paddy brennan not riding him??he could do the weight and hasn't even bothered..good luck with this project.
Other people that have been hitting the glue pot are those silly people backing this dance island into a ridiculous price, he will hate this ground and a place lay is advised.
Maktu is short enough but has at least got strong form claims and those on at nice prices will be quite content he'll go close.
Arbor supreme well am gutted i haven't had nice prices on him. He should be shorter imo and he is the one who could end up the gamble tomorrow if the ground isn't to soft for him that would be my main worry for him. The Grand National remains the aim.
Watuma Bay has his ground but a mark of 147 for a novice really is pushing it. He would have to be special and i get the feeling he isn't..
Giles Cross isn't good enough and should be 33's
Exmoor ranger is a horse i like and he may like the ground. His jumping still remains a concern though and although denis o'regan booked, i'm not sure he is going to want this. Hope he goes well for those on, but he is high risk.
Sychronised can still go well and is a worthy fav.
For me
Their is 3 to concentrate on Maktu, Sychronised and Arbor Supreme
A place lay on dance island is also advised
Be lucky
maktu is surely way too short now. good luck to those on at 20s and 16s but 6s????? youd think pat murphy was the greatest target trainer around to listen to all the 'hes been aimed at the race for 2 years'.......as if the rest of the field hasnt. pat hasnt trained a winner since 2009 over either codes. seems like the racehorse owning world have passed him by...down to a dozen odd horses. cant get treaty flyer out my mind....claimed off pat for 10k rated 97......40lb higher within a year.
Thank god someone agrees with me about Dance Island, Harry. Had a protracted discussion about him before the original race was postponed and couldnt have him on good ground, never mind the quagmire he will face tomorrow. Has yet to post a single decent time and believe, as you clearly do, he hasnt got a prayer. Synchronised is a bit more problematical as he was off the bridle early when he won the midlands national, something that will see him struggle here if he repeats the antics as WN winners always travel well through the race. He travelled much better back over hurdles last time but as John Francome pointed out before that race he seems much happier over hurdles than fences and his mark doesnt help him here. He does , hoever, stay very well, loves the track and ground and is hard to dismiss. Im on Maktu at 25's and have everything crossed for Pat murphy to get back in the limelight.
Extreme Conviction
Synchronised - 16/ 20
See top of thread for my in detail thoughts on him. 9/2 is no value now in a 20 runner handicap off 150.
8/1 was value on 8th December imo
Synchronised - 16/ 20
See top of thread for my in detail thoughts on him. 9/2 is no value now in a 20 runner handicap off 150.
8/1 was value on 8th December imo
Backed Bench Warrant at 40/1 e/w 5 places and 46 avg to win on here. Think he's the dark horse and can run very well at a big old price.
backing pat murphy horses at anytime is surely akin to burning money at 6-1
jesus no thanks
jesus no thanks
Magic Sky for me. Course form loves the ground showed he stayed 3m no problem at Aintree showed he is in form at southwell and the stable is in great form.
Might not stay but at 40s e/w im willing to take the chance.
33s Ballyfitz wa\s a bet whos backing him at current prices?
Might not stay but at 40s e/w im willing to take the chance.
33s Ballyfitz wa\s a bet whos backing him at current prices?
10.0 on here. Bench Warrant gone 55 into 25s, always nice when your selection halves in price, let's hope he runs a race now
BW was going well until he fell 
Arbor Supreme drifted alarmingly and was never put in it
Arbor Supreme drifted alarmingly and was never put in it
well done fav backers, could never have backed that tbh
big run from Gile Cross
big run from Gile Cross
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