Vote AP Gold Cup - Trends Based Preview

So the second big 2m5f Cheltenham handicap chase of the season is upon us and a quality field looks set to go to post. Below are my thoughts on the race starting with my 10 year trends.

. Age 6-8
. Max 151 OR
. 1-3 runs in current season
. Max 9 runs in chases
. 1-5 runs in handicap chases
. 14+ total runs
. Won this season if more than one run
. 2-4 chase wins
. Won maximum 1 handicap chase
. Placed in class 2 in current season
. Placed in a grade chase in lifetime
. Won Class2+ chase lifetime
. Good form in 2 and 1/2 mile handicap chases if tried
. 144+ RPR season
. Run personal best this year if run more than once
. Run within 4 weeks
. Good Cheltenham Form
. Top 3 last time out in a class2+
. 2nd or 3rd season chasers
. Not out of top 2 this season since first run
. Won in 13+ field

Out of these 21 trends, all of the last 10 winners, bar the Irish Trained Go Roger Go, scored at least 18

This years results

20 - Little Josh
19 - Noble Alan
18 - Max Max, Psycho, Daves Dream

Little Josh

Looks to have an obvious chance, but the current price of 6/1 doesn't seem to have any mileage in it whatsoever.

3 of the last 5 winners of this race have come from running great races in the Paddy Power. These were Exotic Dancer, Monkerhostin and Poquelin.

The first two placed in the PP and then won off the same mark and 1lb higher respectively. However, Little Josh is having to run off a 9lb higher mark in this.

Exotic Dancer won off a 10lb higher mark, however, he only won by just over a length and was rated 23lbs higher by the end of the season. The equivalent of this would be Little Josh be rated 178 by the end of the season, which looks very unlikely. And to win this he'd probably have to have another 7-10 pounds in hand anyway, which would see him having to run a low to mid 160s at this point which also seems unlikely.

The ground could also be a slight question mark if the conditions stay quick as they are at the moment

Dave's Dream

Another one who's probably best left alone at the prices. I'd firstly leave him alone, as he's been put up 11lbs for a win here in November, which is an awful lot. Secondly he is best fresh. His record with at least 2 months off is 11111, and with less than that 0166340.

Selections

Noble Alan

For me at the prices he is the absolute stand out bet, though there is a slight question mark about him turning up (3 entries this week - This, Peterborough chase (off?), 2m handicap chase on this card). I reckon he'll run here though and If he runs though and he's 25/1, he is a must bet. He runs with 10st6 on his back and off mark of 143.

The ground at the moment is good and with no rain forecast before the race it looks to ride quick which will suit this guy down to the ground (whereas others may struggle)

His form on good or quicker reads 14121121631. He'll also appreciate the galloping track and as well the undulations. He ran a great 2nd here on his only start and was arguably unlucky. He's only run on one other undulating track, Hexham, where he's 2 from 2.

The slight question mark with him is the trip. However he's one from one over it, although it was only a 5 runner field and a very slow time. The other reason for optimism is his breeding. His brother (Full House) was a two and half miler with all 4 of his chase wins over 2 and half. He also needed quick ground and won over 20f on the flat. In recent races (such as Ascot last time) he has been badly outpaced before staying on.

The other thing we have to of course question is how well handicapped he is? I'd argue to he still has room to manoeuvre of this mark. His trainer has always thought the world of him and he's only off a 4lb higher mark than he won a grade 2 handicap hurdle last year very easily. He's very unexposed over fences with only 7 finishes (won 4) and 2 starts in handicaps. His defeats have been pretty handy as well. He split I'm Deliah (giving 9lbs) and Noble Request (giving 6lbs), and he came 6th at Aintree in the grade 1 novice chase behind Tataniano. In the race he arguably travelled as well as anything (better than Osana, and not much worse than the winner) into the straight, before breaking a blood vessel and fading. He won off 145 earlier this season also (2lb lower here!) but you'd say it's not relevant as the horses who were close behind him were out of the handicap too.

A strong pace is necessary and he should get this in his big field (form in 13+ fields on quick ground 1121). If he turns up and the ground is quick i'd expect him to go very close.

Psycho

Another very unexposed one, with only 6 chase starts (5 finishes). The only times he's lost when completed are on his first chase start, and his first start this season - when RP said he didn't look sharp and took a big blow. He then massively improved for his first start and beat Osana by just under 5l. RP said he didn't look far off Grade 1 quality on this performance, and so if he is to prove that good he must go close of this mark. All of the last 3 winners have gone on to at least place in a Grade1 by the end of the season, and this sort who's always been said to be a natural over fences looks to be on the few likely to do so.

Mad Max

Fits many a trend, especially given that he's a horse who placed in the Paddy Power running of the same mark. Like Psycho he's one of the few who could be grade 1 quality, and with Carberry back on board looks sure to run a big race. Some of Henderson's looked to have need it first time out this year, and he ran like he needed it last time and so there should be more improvement to come.

Bets

Noble Alan - 0.5pt E/W 25-1 - Various Bookies

More to follow later in the week.

If they all run I'll probably end up with something like 1pt E/W Noble Alan, 1pt E/W Psycho, 1pt Win Max Max.

For more thoughts, visit my blog http://extremeconviction.blogspot.com/

GL EC