Why Denman can not win the Hennessy

winner posted an RPR of between 17 and 29 pounds in excess of its OR. Denman is running off 182 so on this basis it would need an RPR of at least 199.

Think your logic may be flawed. If Denman runs to a mark of 182, most of the others will be out of the hcap and will probably win by 10-15 lengths.

You would be surprised how few horses run better than their marks in races like these.

You said Long Run was a 'cert' last week !

Custard - I assume you are referring to Pedro?! 
Ped - If Denman "only" runs to it's mark there is no way on this green earth that will be good enough ! Every other horse that is the handicap would have to run below their marks, and all the others just out of the weights would have to avoid any improvement. I think that if Denman can run to it's mark of 182 it will be a fantastic achievement and could well be enough to place, but it won't be enough to win - let alone by 10-15 lengths. Believe me if it wins that far then the rating it would get would be off the scale !

Look at it this way. I believe that this is a better race than last year, and if it had been off 182 last year it would have finished 4th (in theory)!

No ,i was referring to your son .

I should add that your point about how few horses improve their mark in the Hennessy is a good one, and that's why I feel The horse has every chance of placing as the race clearly suits it well.

He's no son of mine. Have you seen how tall he is?! My money's on the milkman.

Poor anlysis IMO. Added to the fact that majority of rivals will be out of the handicap thereby lessening the task there is little doubt that last year Denman idled in front and was value for more.

I agree with you about hard races , been through the mill etc but Denman wins races from 6 out to  the final fence. If he turns up and gets into that rhythm there are few horses in history that can live with him. His RSA and Gold Cup plus both Hennessy's bear testamnent to that fact that he is something of a one  off and pure ratings analysis dont tell the whole story.

i'll be a backer - somewhat sentimental but having stayed loyal through thick and thin I have to believe there is one more great performance left. Either way I think he will run a big race - Owner and Trainer are not in the business of wheeling this horse out first time up without it being ready to give it a big go. Sam Thomas is a massive plus IMO also he has a great rapport with the horse and presses the button on him a bit earlier than Ruby or AP which is the key to the horse.

Yes Sam Thomas would be my choice too. Not sure it had much up it's sleeve last year to be honest, and whilst numbers can't tell the whole story, I firmly believe that for Denman to win this year's race, it would have to post a lifetime best by some way and I just don't think that's going to happen. The out of the handicap point lessens the task but other than Pandorama, it's main rivals are within 5lbs of the handicap and that won't be enough to make the difference IMO.

It was a monster performance last year, but another 8lbs up the handicap, a stronger renewal, and another year older mean that at the likely starting price (which could be as low as 3-1 if WAF does the busines) I will be having my maximum lay on the win market.

You have a point - but Denman makes a habit of defying predictions and going left handed I would always want to be a backer within reason.

I am still disappointed that he didnt beat IC at Chelts but I still believe AP missed the boat. With the benefit of hindsight as soon as Kauto fell that was the time to kick the horse in the belly and press on.

Still this myopic Denmania is no good ...must open my mind!

Last year he was a 182 horses running of 174, this year he may be a 174 horse running off 182. That's the worry.

But when it comes to special horses like him, forget the logic, go with the heart and back him. The great horses always repay blind faith and Denners has won me money many times over.

I couldn't live with myself if I deserted him and he made history with a 3rd Hennessy win. Nah, Denners all the way. Even just the thinking of last year brings a tear to my eye.

That's exactly what I'm looking for - sentimental pounds to line my mercenary wallet

^

I've already backed him so you'll have to get someone else's money. I'd suggest waiting until the day as he'll be shortening all the way to the off.

Just don't lay him at 1000/1 :D

Pandorama wins btw, so don't lay him ;)

Having looked at the race I cannot see why he wouldn't win it again. I could make a case for Neptune Collonges but other than that he has a favourites chance. His form at the end of last season was as good as ever, ran a blinder in the GC, and if he had run straight would have lapped Planet Of Sound at Punchestown. He can shoulder big weights and he has nothing to prove where as all the pretenders to the crown do.

CVB - will I ever be allowed to forget that Binocular lay ? Thought not Agree he could be shortening on the day. Everyone is going to want their ticket to share in a bit of history aren't they? I can see it getting very few selections from the pundits on the Pacing Post selections box though.
Bobby: Best of British with your horse on Saturday, now that one DOES have a favourite's chance ! I think Denners has a hell of a lot more on his plate this year than he had last year but we shall see. I certainly wouldn't expect to ever hear a louder roar at Newbury if he's bang there over the last.

MPR - Heading south to watch it - it would be fantastic if he could pull it off.

Thanks for the good wishes - if he runs as good as he looks he will take some stopping

Sorry pipey, was only joking with the binocular comment. I'll not bring it up again.

As a layer you gotta take him on. Head says pando wins, heart says Denman. Nothing sizable bet by myself anyway.

Binocular does need to be taken on at newcastle though.

The more I look at this the more I believe Denman has to go close. The only two horses who I thionk could still be progressive are Pandorama and Weird Al (maybe Burton Port at a push). Off these weights both these horses have to win comprehensively to put themselves in the frame for the GC, and I don't think they will on the basis of their form to date. The one that has caught my attention is Taranis - at 14/1 has to be a punt. Was missing for 766 days after breaking down in the 2007 King George before winning the Cotswold chase. Nicely weighted, will get the trip, extended break holds no fears, and form in the book is as strong as any of the other pretenders to Denmans crown.

Such an interesting puzzle. I am inclined to agree with Bobby - the more I look at the race, I find it harder to actually make a case for Denman not being right in the mix.

Of greatest importance for me is the fact that the supposed improvers are those that are a fair way out of the weights. Pandorama, for example, is 8lb wrong, which means he could improve by 8lb and only be fairly treated against a horse that is probably the hardest to pass up that Newbury straight. And I'm not sure I'd fancy him to improve 8lb in a race of this calibre, first time up, away from Ireland.

Of the others, Diamond Harry is a big talent but will have to have learned how to jump over the summer, while Weird Al has it all to prove for me. The fact that he has twice nearly collapsed at the end of his races suggests he gives everything, which in turn suggests he has little improvement left and might have left his race at Carlisle. Burton Port should go well but probably has less improvement in him than most of the others.

Carruthers has a chance at the weights but you'd have to worry about his jockey in a race like this (if he were ridden with more restraint he'd probably have won at least one big race by now). Madison Du Berlais is too unpredictable and I doubt the other Nicholls runners are scaring Sam Thomas too much.

The two I'd be slightly wary of are Big Fella Thanks and his Carlisle conqueror, Hey Big Spender. I love the second-named horse and he is very classy, but I don't think he is an out and out stayer, despite his encouraging return. That, for me, leaves Big Fella Thanks as the likeliest winner/biggest danger to Denman. He will definitely stay and is a very class horse - he won a valuable race at the track last year and has enough experience to run to his best in a race like this. He also ran very well first time - something Ferdy's have not been doing this year - and normal improvement should put him right there.

I don't think denman has run up to his mark since Newbury last year. I have my doubts whether he's a 180+ horse anymore, and think he will at least need to run to his mark to win.

people underestimate his Punchestown run,if hed have jumped str8 even half the way he'd have run them well and truly ragged.

But will they not want to go for the national again with Big Fella? If it wins here they'll have no chance.

excellent analysis tomdeane. I pretty much agree with all of that which unfortunately leaves me without a strong bet this year. Hey Big Spender e/w

Can i just add, and some people are forgetting, to the discussion is Denman's record fresh. He has won first time up, including 2 hennessy's off top weight, 4 out of 5 seasons. The season he lost first time out was after his heart problems and they ran him right handed at kempton.
So the horse is clearly very very good fresh. IN fact ive always been of the opinion that he is at his best fresh. There is a school of thought that he gets better with racing - i dont agree.
If he does have one last big performance in him then he will be at newbury on saturday.

reckon they would have sorted his jumping out frm punchestowns? ;)

Only one horse in this race has no questions to answer, and that's Denman! If you back anything else you're guessing at elements of their game! Denman goes well fresh, loves Newbury, can carry weight and is as game as you like!

Can't argue with his record fresh but he was beaten when unseating last time at Newbury by horses that shouldn't get anywhere near him at levels. He hasn't run to over 180 since the Hennessy last year so I don't think you can say there are no questions to answer. It's likely there will be at least a couple of improvers and a few others running to their marks so he will need to run to at least his best to win probably

Resnar not lesnar - you start from the standpoint that Denman has not run to over 180 since Newbury last year. ? But is that true, he beat a group of 155 to 160 rated chasers by 25 length plus in a Gold Cup run in a good time. You could assume that they ALL ran below form on the day - but is that likely ? Then he would have routed the field at Punchestown if running in a straight line. To my mind he remains he one 180+ horse in the field, the rest have a mountain to climb. Indeed if any of this field have pretentions to be GC horses they not only have to beat him, but beat him comprehensively getting the lumps of weight they are. Credit where it is due, apart from the Aon he ran some blinders last season.

bobby dazzler talks a lot of sense imo.

I am increasingly sweet on the chance of Taranis, occasionally makes the odd mistake but otherwise many more +ves than -ves.

Stayed 3m2f at Cheltenham last year, acts well on both soft and good ground, course winner, won after big break, top trainer, won grade 1 chases.

big e/w punt for me

Don't get me wrong Denman has been a fantastic horse and he still may have it in him, but the poster before suggested Denman has no questions to answer, I just think he does.
I think the distances between the beaten GC horses were exaggerated because it was a fast run race & the weather was horrible (there is no way the going was Good by the time the GC was run - despite the time IMO). I also doubt that Cooldine (under the weather all season)or Carruthers ran up to their ratings. I think Denman probably ran in the 170's. I don't think running to the 170's will be enough to win the Hennessy this time. As I mentioned above if something like MDB (just one example) runs close to his previous best Denman is going to have to run a lifetime best to win, there will be others who improve as well. One win in seven races also suggests there are questions to answer. Ultimately it's just my opinion, I don't think he'll win, but don't mind if he proves me wrong as it would be something special

Far too much is made of Denman's fall at Newbury in the AON; he put in a flawless round of jumping in the Gold Cup a month later so you can't question his ability over fences!

I wasn't questioning his jumping, as I said he was already beaten when unseating by horses who shouldn't have got anywhere near him

RNL - he was not beaten before his mistake in the straight.

He was not pulling away, as you would have imagined he should, when he made the first mistake, and he was under pressure, behind and not looking like getting back up to me when he unseated. My point is although clearly an off day, that leaves a question mark will he have another off day? Can he run into the 180's again? My original post was in response to dwm767 who said he has no questions to answer

resener not lesner - there was no question that the ground was good to soft when the GC was run, that was the official going it was changed before the race, and changed again to soft before the last race. Anyone who saw Denman before Newbury could have predicted how he would perform, dull of coat and listless. He was a different horse when he turned up for the GC and at Punchestown. I spoke to PN after the Betfair chase who told me he couldn't be happier with him - it is an ask conceeding weight all round, but I am sure he will run a huge race.

Bobby, you may well be right, he may and probably will run a huge race. I just think to win he'll need to run better than ever and I'm not convinced he can. Even if he's at his very best it means both MDB & Neptune Collonges running a fair way below theirs. Others such as The Tother One & Taranis don't need to improve to be thereabouts, and at least one of Pandorama, Weird Al & Burton Port may have significant improvement. For me there are enough questions to be against him.

BTW I hope IC recovers quickly, thought he put up a really good, solid performance on Saturday

I gave the race a really good going over today, and came up with the same conclusion as the OP!! The horse has been a monster and his first win in this race was awesome. Last year tho.......

My figures suggested he ran to 180, which suggests that Barbers Shop just about ran to his mark, but those behind him ran below their official figure. When you go on and see what the placed horses and also rans subsequently achieved, I have only What A Friend (taking the field down to My Will) running above his Hennessy form and only by 5lbs. I have assigned a similar rating to My Will in IC's Gold Cup, but when horses are beaten so far, I find these figures having less relevance.

So we have what looked another fantastic feat by Denman - and he is still rated 182 - beating a crowd who on the whole declined in future races.

This year we seem to have a host of "potentials" who must have hopes of improving (some substantially) their current ranking and will/ should be ready to go on Saturday.

Nothing would give me a greater thrill than seeing Denman win or finish very close up, but was last years win that good? Is he still as good?

Let's hope the snow and frost stays away.

Thanks Resner - don't think it will heal in time for the KG

I agree that he may have to run a career best to win this - but it I think the potential challengers have to step up to the plate and I am not sure many will. Certainly for Weird Al and Pandorama to enter the GC picture they have to beat Denman comprehensively off these terms - IMHO I suspect they will struggle in an end to end gallop at championship speed. Similarly I suspect MDB will be let down by his jumping. Burton Port has potential, and Taranis has a lot of quality so it won't be easy - but I think Denman is less regressive than many suspect.

Enjoyable thread - some good analysis.

Taking everything into account there is probably only one horse that could beat Denman off levels frst time up over 3m 2f at Newbury on fair ground and that is Arkle.

On  that basis the only real question is deterioration / age and we , nor PN , can really know until after the race. All I know is if the real Denman was guaranteed to turn up I would want to lay no biggr than 7/4. The issue is that you don't know if that will happen but you can get at least twice that price on the off chance it does.

Like I say -  I am a backer (and a big,big shouter on the day). This horse is the heart and soul of the sport and one more big day would be bloody wonderful.

come just b4 the off il be a layer. him and burton port are two i cant have and actually if burton port wins then il give up on the game. denners is a great horse and hes loved by almost everyone which is why hes probably goin t go off quite short. i personally dont take any notice of rpr. its quite obvious that most agree denman is the best in the race but for me, together with urton port, hes racing off a poor handicap mark. love the horse and will be brilliant for racing if he can win but i have to say, when i start backing old favourites over well handicapped or progressive horses then i dont tend to be any the better of it

Denman over hurdles was rated 165, far superior than his rivals. Over fences he has a TS of 182 far superior than his rivals. He can carry the weight and jump them in to the ground, the question is, will Denman allow himself to be beaten.

Reve, not sure where you're coming from with Burton Port, to my mind he is the second season chaser in the field with the best form in the book. Before last years RSA it was all about Punchy and Long Run, but WA had won at the festival before and was a worthy winner on the day, I think it will turn out to have been a quality affair. Also, if you look at any of the 'Who will win the Gold Cup' threads kicking about, you will see that a fit WA is the most popular choice. BPs run in the RSA gives him every chance off this mark, as Bobby says if he has Gold Cup pretensions - and I'm pretty sure that's what connections will be thinking - then he'll need to go close.
That said, it's only a saver for me, I like Carruthers a lot for this

i just couldnt have him desmond based on the races hes won which i dont think are all that great. diamond harry beating him as he did in haydock giving away so much weight really puts me off because both are off 152 now and although jumping is the name of the game, i dont think dh would have to improve jumping that much to finish in front of him. for me, beating the likes of dance island and massasoit are not reasons to think hes got a good chance. all about opinions tho so maybe im wrong

Going back 12 months....

Barbers Shop - disappointing since I know and hardly progressive.....has got by my calculation a 10lb pull just out of the handicap for a 7 length defeat in 2009....

The yard is in form,the horses are needing a run and Barbers Shop - a Course winner....is 50/1 or higher.....

enoght positives for a small each way investment...

Furry Muff Reve, I'm not sure using the Haydock race as your guide is the best idea, but if you don't think he's good enough, then you don't think he's good enough. I like the look of his form. If it was straightforward, no-one would ever be a layer! I'll not back him until the day, so it may be some of yours that I snaffle...... Good Luck (tho not on Saturday, obv [;)])

cheers

Sorry if he has been mentioned in the above posts but i have not read through all of them, but has anyone here given CHINA ROCK a chance? 4.5 lengths behind Kauto Star(ok an unfit Kauto Star) off levels at Down Royal and is to recieve pretty much a stone and a half off Denman on Saturday. Was deamed a non runner on Weds but is in the final decs for saturday with news due to come out whether it is to run or not i bet there is a few 1000 layers on here sweating! I give him a right good chance and at 14/1 or there abouts is stonking value!

not running... again

Been looking at the race again. Its really a race of so many ifs and buts. So many potential improvers and horses returning from injury or a poor season/run rated below their best form. Exactly what a Hennessy should be I suppose, you can make a fair case for most runners. No wonder there are so many different views on this.

Still happy with my choice of MDB, ground hopefully remains good to soft as I think a fair number of others would appreciate softer going. I think if he runs close to his 08/09 form, he'll be tough to beat at the weights. I've come round to the idea Denman may well run a big race, but still find it difficult to see him winning as I think that means improving and I don't think he will.

If Denman runs on a Par with last season he wins imo. I have looked and looked for a cover bet and there are too many ifs and buts on all off the others, All need a dramatic improvement thats for sure. Whereas the tank if he runs like he has done prev in this race will take the world of beating and i just cannot see a horse in the field that can give such a performance. Denman has to be 100% to win. This is his race etc. I have a weighty bet at 5's so am prepared to sit back and fingers crossed but if he goes above 5's i will be going in again. My rationale being im betting 5/1+ on the trainer having the horse in tip top form for the race ! Hopefully i will have pennies left to back MikD on sunday :)

It looks like the thread starter had this one pretty accurate "3rd, 4th, 5th if he runs to his best". Although I was right about needing an improved performance to win, Denman has proved me wrong. I didn't think he was as good as his OR anymore and I think he's run right up to that more or less. So hands up Denman I was wrong, you're still a tank.

The RPR's have been done and I see it's been given 183, i.e. just a single pound lower than it's best ever. So this was a wonderful performance in the race yet again, and it was some feat to hold on for third from the other two closers. The effort must have taken a hell of a lot out of the horse so they may be right to return in March.

Barring accidents it was always pretty much mission impossible in this renewal with 4 very promising improving horses on the block. Two bombed out and the other two filled the first two places with 14 lengths back to the old boy. What was great to see, was Denman beating off all the horses that the handicapper had seen plenty of, and the ratings indicate it was just as good a performance as it put up last year. The increased handicap mark and stronger renewal prevented a historic treble, but another heroic effort.

If he hadn't clouted the 2nd last he would have run Harry closer, he tired badly after that. Next year with Kauto in the field Denman will win his 3rd. Fantastic horse and I was so proud of him yesterdy. I said the 2.5 on him to place was fantastic value.

Well Done Reve, reckon BP will turn the tables if they both go GC route though [;)]

id say your prob right. dh looks to be a fragile sort. if i was them id go lexus then aintree

I don't think he would tbh, I don't think jacob was too hard on DH whereas BP looked to be all out, also DH has superior tactical speed which seems very important around Cheltenham. DH is jumping better this season than last therefore he should make a better fist of Cheltenham this time around providing he is kept fresh and the ground isn't too fast.

*wasn't too hard on DH

You were right the first time Neill.
I think the mistakes knocked the stuffing out of BP, so to finish as close as he did was a super effort. He is not given to mistakes generally, was maybe a touch rusty, and jumped fine round Cheltenham in the RSA last year. I would seriously fancy him to turn it round with DH, but both would be left chasing a fit Weapons Amnesty and The Commander in all likelihood.

I think Burton Port & Diamond Harry seem very closely matched, so much so that whoever has conditions in their favour will probably finish on top. It seems clear a flat track plays to DH's strengths, so Cheltenham would prob favour BP of the two. I would also say off level weights he will find more challenegers with more to give at the end of a race than he did here - so he will have to show he can battle as well, something he didn't really have to prove on Saturday. You can understand why connections would go for the GC but I have a feeling he'll be lucky to place there with the other big guns in the field and conditions suiting others more - Aintree would probably be far more suitable but it's hardly the same is it

connections would be slated by some if they didnt go for the gold cup id say

You don't get many potential GC horses so you have to go for it really. I mean he has won round Cheltenham twice before, just not at that level.
I guess if it doesn't work and as I say I think he'd be lucky to place then they could take a different path that plays to his strengths next year

hed be well able to win the lexus chase, irish hennessy and probably john durkan anyhow