Horse Antepost
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17 Nov 10
19:08
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04 Feb 09
In the 5 years preceding last year's renewal the winner posted an RPR of between 17 and 29 pounds in excess of its OR. Denman is running off 182 so on this basis it would need an RPR of at least 199. This would be far and away the best I have ever seen. Last year the horse won with a figure of just 10lbs above its OR. If the same were to be required again then it would need 192+ which would be 8lbs ahead of it's best ever figure when it won the Gold Cup as an 8yo.
Now is either really possible given it is a ten year old now who has had a few problems and plenty of hard races. There has to be a doubt about last year's race too. Leave out the runner up and no other horse in the whole field has won a chase since ! In fact they are largely a sorry bunch with subsequent form littered with P's. This years race has several top notch second season chasers who will be just 4lbs out of the handicap and open to plenty of improvement, as well as plenty of hardened old pros (MdB, The Tother One, Carruthers) who are better handicapped.
If WAF wins at Haydock, then Denman will shorten further and I will be laying my absolute bollox on the win market, then laying again in the 10 mins before the race when all the public money comes for it on course.
In short, I can see two possibilities for Denman. A gallant 3rd/4th/5th if it runs to it's best or a blow out. It can't win boys, it really can't.
Now is either really possible given it is a ten year old now who has had a few problems and plenty of hard races. There has to be a doubt about last year's race too. Leave out the runner up and no other horse in the whole field has won a chase since ! In fact they are largely a sorry bunch with subsequent form littered with P's. This years race has several top notch second season chasers who will be just 4lbs out of the handicap and open to plenty of improvement, as well as plenty of hardened old pros (MdB, The Tother One, Carruthers) who are better handicapped.
If WAF wins at Haydock, then Denman will shorten further and I will be laying my absolute bollox on the win market, then laying again in the 10 mins before the race when all the public money comes for it on course.
In short, I can see two possibilities for Denman. A gallant 3rd/4th/5th if it runs to it's best or a blow out. It can't win boys, it really can't.
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winner posted an RPR of between 17 and 29 pounds in excess of its OR. Denman is running off 182 so on this basis it would need an RPR of at least 199.
Think your logic may be flawed. If Denman runs to a mark of 182, most of the others will be out of the hcap and will probably win by 10-15 lengths. You would be surprised how few horses run better than their marks in races like these. |
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You said Long Run was a 'cert' last week !
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Custard - I assume you are referring to Pedro?!
Ped - If Denman "only" runs to it's mark there is no way on this green earth that will be good enough ! Every other horse that is the handicap would have to run below their marks, and all the others just out of the weights would have to avoid any improvement. I think that if Denman can run to it's mark of 182 it will be a fantastic achievement and could well be enough to place, but it won't be enough to win - let alone by 10-15 lengths. Believe me if it wins that far then the rating it would get would be off the scale ! Look at it this way. I believe that this is a better race than last year, and if it had been off 182 last year it would have finished 4th (in theory)! |
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No ,i was referring to your son .
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I should add that your point about how few horses improve their mark in the Hennessy is a good one, and that's why I feel The horse has every chance of placing as the race clearly suits it well.
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He's no son of mine. Have you seen how tall he is?! My money's on the milkman.
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Poor anlysis IMO. Added to the fact that majority of rivals will be out of the handicap thereby lessening the task there is little doubt that last year Denman idled in front and was value for more.
I agree with you about hard races , been through the mill etc but Denman wins races from 6 out to the final fence. If he turns up and gets into that rhythm there are few horses in history that can live with him. His RSA and Gold Cup plus both Hennessy's bear testamnent to that fact that he is something of a one off and pure ratings analysis dont tell the whole story. i'll be a backer - somewhat sentimental but having stayed loyal through thick and thin I have to believe there is one more great performance left. Either way I think he will run a big race - Owner and Trainer are not in the business of wheeling this horse out first time up without it being ready to give it a big go. Sam Thomas is a massive plus IMO also he has a great rapport with the horse and presses the button on him a bit earlier than Ruby or AP which is the key to the horse. |
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Yes Sam Thomas would be my choice too. Not sure it had much up it's sleeve last year to be honest, and whilst numbers can't tell the whole story, I firmly believe that for Denman to win this year's race, it would have to post a lifetime best by some way and I just don't think that's going to happen. The out of the handicap point lessens the task but other than Pandorama, it's main rivals are within 5lbs of the handicap and that won't be enough to make the difference IMO.
It was a monster performance last year, but another 8lbs up the handicap, a stronger renewal, and another year older mean that at the likely starting price (which could be as low as 3-1 if WAF does the busines) I will be having my maximum lay on the win market. |
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You have a point - but Denman makes a habit of defying predictions and going left handed I would always want to be a backer within reason.
I am still disappointed that he didnt beat IC at Chelts but I still believe AP missed the boat. With the benefit of hindsight as soon as Kauto fell that was the time to kick the horse in the belly and press on. Still this myopic Denmania is no good ...must open my mind! |
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Last year he was a 182 horses running of 174, this year he may be a 174 horse running off 182. That's the worry.
But when it comes to special horses like him, forget the logic, go with the heart and back him. The great horses always repay blind faith and Denners has won me money many times over. I couldn't live with myself if I deserted him and he made history with a 3rd Hennessy win. Nah, Denners all the way. Even just the thinking of last year brings a tear to my eye. |
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That's exactly what I'm looking for - sentimental pounds to line my mercenary wallet
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I've already backed him so you'll have to get someone else's money. I'd suggest waiting until the day as he'll be shortening all the way to the off.
Just don't lay him at 1000/1 :D Pandorama wins btw, so don't lay him ;) |
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Having looked at the race I cannot see why he wouldn't win it again. I could make a case for Neptune Collonges but other than that he has a favourites chance. His form at the end of last season was as good as ever, ran a blinder in the GC, and if he had run straight would have lapped Planet Of Sound at Punchestown. He can shoulder big weights and he has nothing to prove where as all the pretenders to the crown do.
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CVB - will I ever be allowed to forget that Binocular lay ? Thought not
 Agree he could be shortening on the day. Everyone is going to want their ticket to share in a bit of history aren't they? I can see it getting very few selections from the pundits on the Pacing Post selections box though.Bobby: Best of British with your horse on Saturday, now that one DOES have a favourite's chance ! I think Denners has a hell of a lot more on his plate this year than he had last year but we shall see. I certainly wouldn't expect to ever hear a louder roar at Newbury if he's bang there over the last. |
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MPR - Heading south to watch it - it would be fantastic if he could pull it off.
Thanks for the good wishes - if he runs as good as he looks he will take some stopping |
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Sorry pipey, was only joking with the binocular comment. I'll not bring it up again.
As a layer you gotta take him on. Head says pando wins, heart says Denman. Nothing sizable bet by myself anyway. Binocular does need to be taken on at newcastle though. |
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The more I look at this the more I believe Denman has to go close. The only two horses who I thionk could still be progressive are Pandorama and Weird Al (maybe Burton Port at a push). Off these weights both these horses have to win comprehensively to put themselves in the frame for the GC, and I don't think they will on the basis of their form to date. The one that has caught my attention is Taranis - at 14/1 has to be a punt. Was missing for 766 days after breaking down in the 2007 King George before winning the Cotswold chase. Nicely weighted, will get the trip, extended break holds no fears, and form in the book is as strong as any of the other pretenders to Denmans crown.
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Such an interesting puzzle. I am inclined to agree with Bobby - the more I look at the race, I find it harder to actually make a case for Denman not being right in the mix.
Of greatest importance for me is the fact that the supposed improvers are those that are a fair way out of the weights. Pandorama, for example, is 8lb wrong, which means he could improve by 8lb and only be fairly treated against a horse that is probably the hardest to pass up that Newbury straight. And I'm not sure I'd fancy him to improve 8lb in a race of this calibre, first time up, away from Ireland. Of the others, Diamond Harry is a big talent but will have to have learned how to jump over the summer, while Weird Al has it all to prove for me. The fact that he has twice nearly collapsed at the end of his races suggests he gives everything, which in turn suggests he has little improvement left and might have left his race at Carlisle. Burton Port should go well but probably has less improvement in him than most of the others. Carruthers has a chance at the weights but you'd have to worry about his jockey in a race like this (if he were ridden with more restraint he'd probably have won at least one big race by now). Madison Du Berlais is too unpredictable and I doubt the other Nicholls runners are scaring Sam Thomas too much. The two I'd be slightly wary of are Big Fella Thanks and his Carlisle conqueror, Hey Big Spender. I love the second-named horse and he is very classy, but I don't think he is an out and out stayer, despite his encouraging return. That, for me, leaves Big Fella Thanks as the likeliest winner/biggest danger to Denman. He will definitely stay and is a very class horse - he won a valuable race at the track last year and has enough experience to run to his best in a race like this. He also ran very well first time - something Ferdy's have not been doing this year - and normal improvement should put him right there. |
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I don't think denman has run up to his mark since Newbury last year. I have my doubts whether he's a 180+ horse anymore, and think he will at least need to run to his mark to win.
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people underestimate his Punchestown run,if hed have jumped str8 even half the way he'd have run them well and truly ragged.
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But will they not want to go for the national again with Big Fella? If it wins here they'll have no chance.
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excellent analysis tomdeane. I pretty much agree with all of that which unfortunately leaves me without a strong bet this year
 . Hey Big Spender e/w |
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Can i just add, and some people are forgetting, to the discussion is Denman's record fresh. He has won first time up, including 2 hennessy's off top weight, 4 out of 5 seasons. The season he lost first time out was after his heart problems and they ran him right handed at kempton.
So the horse is clearly very very good fresh. IN fact ive always been of the opinion that he is at his best fresh. There is a school of thought that he gets better with racing - i dont agree. If he does have one last big performance in him then he will be at newbury on saturday. |
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reckon they would have sorted his jumping out frm punchestowns? ;)
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Only one horse in this race has no questions to answer, and that's Denman! If you back anything else you're guessing at elements of their game! Denman goes well fresh, loves Newbury, can carry weight and is as game as you like!
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Can't argue with his record fresh but he was beaten when unseating last time at Newbury by horses that shouldn't get anywhere near him at levels. He hasn't run to over 180 since the Hennessy last year so I don't think you can say there are no questions to answer. It's likely there will be at least a couple of improvers and a few others running to their marks so he will need to run to at least his best to win probably
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Resnar not lesnar - you start from the standpoint that Denman has not run to over 180 since Newbury last year. ? But is that true, he beat a group of 155 to 160 rated chasers by 25 length plus in a Gold Cup run in a good time. You could assume that they ALL ran below form on the day - but is that likely ? Then he would have routed the field at Punchestown if running in a straight line. To my mind he remains he one 180+ horse in the field, the rest have a mountain to climb. Indeed if any of this field have pretentions to be GC horses they not only have to beat him, but beat him comprehensively getting the lumps of weight they are. Credit where it is due, apart from the Aon he ran some blinders last season.
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bobby dazzler talks a lot of sense imo.
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I am increasingly sweet on the chance of Taranis, occasionally makes the odd mistake but otherwise many more +ves than -ves.
Stayed 3m2f at Cheltenham last year, acts well on both soft and good ground, course winner, won after big break, top trainer, won grade 1 chases. big e/w punt for me |
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Don't get me wrong Denman has been a fantastic horse and he still may have it in him, but the poster before suggested Denman has no questions to answer, I just think he does.
I think the distances between the beaten GC horses were exaggerated because it was a fast run race & the weather was horrible (there is no way the going was Good by the time the GC was run - despite the time IMO). I also doubt that Cooldine (under the weather all season)or Carruthers ran up to their ratings. I think Denman probably ran in the 170's. I don't think running to the 170's will be enough to win the Hennessy this time. As I mentioned above if something like MDB (just one example) runs close to his previous best Denman is going to have to run a lifetime best to win, there will be others who improve as well. One win in seven races also suggests there are questions to answer. Ultimately it's just my opinion, I don't think he'll win, but don't mind if he proves me wrong as it would be something special |
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Far too much is made of Denman's fall at Newbury in the AON; he put in a flawless round of jumping in the Gold Cup a month later so you can't question his ability over fences!
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I wasn't questioning his jumping, as I said he was already beaten when unseating by horses who shouldn't have got anywhere near him
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RNL - he was not beaten before his mistake in the straight.
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He was not pulling away, as you would have imagined he should, when he made the first mistake, and he was under pressure, behind and not looking like getting back up to me when he unseated. My point is although clearly an off day, that leaves a question mark will he have another off day? Can he run into the 180's again? My original post was in response to dwm767 who said he has no questions to answer
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resener not lesner - there was no question that the ground was good to soft when the GC was run, that was the official going it was changed before the race, and changed again to soft before the last race. Anyone who saw Denman before Newbury could have predicted how he would perform, dull of coat and listless. He was a different horse when he turned up for the GC and at Punchestown. I spoke to PN after the Betfair chase who told me he couldn't be happier with him - it is an ask conceeding weight all round, but I am sure he will run a huge race.
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Bobby, you may well be right, he may and probably will run a huge race. I just think to win he'll need to run better than ever and I'm not convinced he can. Even if he's at his very best it means both MDB & Neptune Collonges running a fair way below theirs. Others such as The Tother One & Taranis don't need to improve to be thereabouts, and at least one of Pandorama, Weird Al & Burton Port may have significant improvement. For me there are enough questions to be against him.
BTW I hope IC recovers quickly, thought he put up a really good, solid performance on Saturday |
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I gave the race a really good going over today, and came up with the same conclusion as the OP!! The horse has been a monster and his first win in this race was awesome. Last year tho.......
My figures suggested he ran to 180, which suggests that Barbers Shop just about ran to his mark, but those behind him ran below their official figure. When you go on and see what the placed horses and also rans subsequently achieved, I have only What A Friend (taking the field down to My Will) running above his Hennessy form and only by 5lbs. I have assigned a similar rating to My Will in IC's Gold Cup, but when horses are beaten so far, I find these figures having less relevance. So we have what looked another fantastic feat by Denman - and he is still rated 182 - beating a crowd who on the whole declined in future races. This year we seem to have a host of "potentials" who must have hopes of improving (some substantially) their current ranking and will/ should be ready to go on Saturday. Nothing would give me a greater thrill than seeing Denman win or finish very close up, but was last years win that good? Is he still as good? Let's hope the snow and frost stays away. |