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mike hunt
30 Oct 10 14:51
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Date Joined: 27 Jan 02
| Topic/replies: 250 | Blogger: mike hunt's blog
perhaps now that his substitute has flopped the machine will be allowed to show...

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By:
eric_morris
When: 30 Oct 10 14:51
Will run and win.
By:
Twice Over
When: 30 Oct 10 15:06
No chance of him running. Cecil doesn't just have these 2 colts. He has colts that have not even ran. Midsummer Sun for example. Half brother to Midday with the german sire Monsun. could be anything.
By:
eric_morris
When: 30 Oct 10 15:09
Here comes Frankels Derby layers sh1tting themselves ... batten down the hatches she's going to blow!!!
By:
Twice Over
When: 30 Oct 10 15:17
Look at my forum name ye eejit, do ye think i'd be a layer of any Cecil horse?? Just my opinion.
By:
eric_morris
When: 30 Oct 10 15:22
Didnt mean you ... however dont agree with you. The Royal Lodge showed he will settle and we see how strongly he finishes at a mile without his stride shortening. Imagine him not being asked a question at all for that mile he will be cruising there and for the next 2f then he can be unleashed in the straight. Will be breath-taking imo.
By:
kincsem
When: 30 Oct 10 15:25
or not
By:
eric_morris
When: 30 Oct 10 15:28
Told you Twice Over.
By:
eric_morris
When: 31 Oct 10 15:39
Great boost to the form again today.
By:
Augustine
When: 31 Oct 10 16:23
YBM/kirk/eric...18 Oct 10 04:09

I will be waiting until after the Guineas to discuss him in the Derby as only then will we know he is going there.
By:
eric_morris
When: 31 Oct 10 17:36
Good Old Breasty/Alderbrook 20000/1 /Augustine etc etc

It was an addendum.
By:
Ramruma
When: 31 Oct 10 17:49
Dante then French Derby over 10f imo; Epsom if it looks like he stays at York.
By:
Rowley Mile
When: 31 Oct 10 18:15
Anyone got a view on specific gravity ? A doubtful stayer but looked mightily impressive lto and scope for further obviously.
By:
bornisthekingofSB
When: 31 Oct 10 18:48
eric,i am not a frankel layer or backer but do you really believe he will stay 12? pedigree gives differing views but i just cant have the horse staying that far(but i have been wrong many times)
By:
Prima Donna
When: 31 Oct 10 19:48
Prepare to be wrong again then bornisthekingofSB,reckon he will run...........stay the trip and win!
By:
bornisthekingofSB
When: 01 Nov 10 07:03
well thats fair enough prima and i will be the first on here to say yep got it wrong
By:
cryoftruth
When: 01 Nov 10 13:48
The distance a horse will stay is not an exact science. There are examples of sprinters bred to stay very well - and of stayers who you would never expect to have stayed so well. However the fact is that horses bred to stay a trip usually do so.

Lets look again at Frankel's pedigree.

First the sire's side.
He is by Galileo, a 12 furlong horse himself who failed at 10 furlongs as a derby winner when beaten for pace by Fantastic Light - no dosgrace in itself but not his best run. Galileo was by Sadlers Wells an influence for stamina and Galileo is a brother to slowinsh but decent 12 furlong horse Black Sam bellamy. Galileo was out of Urban Sea who is the mum of not just Galileo but other 12 furlong horses including of course Sea The Stars, a dual group 1 12 furlong winner. Sea the Stars was by a miler, Cape cross, not normally associated with being the sire of horses staying as well as Sea The Stars. the sire's side of Frankel's pedigree is essentially full of class but stamina on both sides too.

Then the Dam's side.
The dam is Kind, a filly dropped back from 7 to sprint distances. If kind had been bred to be a sprinter there would be very major doubts about Frankel at 12 furlongs. However she was bred to get around 10 furlongs and it is a major surprise she proved best at sprint trips. Kind's sire was Danehill, a sire with an index of 9.1 furlongs, and a sire who has managed to get winners of up to 2 miles and as short as 5 furlongs. Kind's dam was Rainbow Lake, who has produced 8 other foals aside from Kind. They have all been better stayers than Kind and included winners at 8, 12 and 15 furlongs and included a winner at 10 furlongs by Zafonic, a miler. As stated it is very surprising that Kind appeared not to stay 10 furlongs very well and if she had done so, there would be no arguments at all about Frankel who would be considered sure to stay. Frankel's dam (Kind) was out of a mare (Rainbow Lake) who was by Rainbow Quest another influence for stamina.
Essentially Frankel's dam's side is all miler to 12 furliong breeding with only kind amongst the whole lot who was best at trips short of a mile.

So there you have it.
Frankel is by a top class (maybe even legendary in time) sire who was bred to stay very well and passes this on to his offspring.
frankel is out of a mare who was bred to stay 10 furlongs but proved better at sprint distances.

Now looking at the pedigree and the fact that Frankel has won over a mile at 2 (and a mile with give in the ground), I would be astonished if he did not stay 10 furlongs very well. I would expect that he would stay a mile and a half too, although this is not certain. However going back to the original point, if h a horse is bred to stay 1 trip they probably will do.

Thus Frankel will probably stay 12 furlongs.

Now others will and have disagreed with this assessment. The trainer is by no means convinced Frankel will stay the Derby trip. This may be right. However while I can see the reason for the doubts, the evidence is to the contrary. The people who just assert that he will definitely not stay the Derby trip are either genuinely gifted fortune tellers or idiots.
By:
grendel
When: 01 Nov 10 14:40
Well written cryoftruth, I remember the dosage index wheeled out each year by Nick Mordin claimed that Erhaab couldn't possibly win his years Derby according to his figure.  Like you say its not an exact science and 'staying' is only a relative concept. If and when Frankel wins the Guineas, the non-staying brigade will be ever so more vociferous with their views and I wonder how A P O'Brien plans would run his pacemakers to test this, set it up too slow for Sea The Stars and went off too fast to aid Workforce's record time in the last 2 years.  He will only need to stay the Epsom's 12f course better than his 3yo contemporaries anyway to win the Derby, the real staying test is against elders at the trip.
By:
cryoftruth
When: 01 Nov 10 18:40
I was thinking about Frankel at Epsom.

If the pace of the race is very strong, he will settle very easily and canter for the first 10 furlongs before quickening clear.

If there is a slow pace he will clear off at the 3 furlong marker and nothing will be able to get near him.

You can still get a decent price for the Derby. I would suggest trying to get a price for the double myself, as it really does seem, after Klammer and now Aiden's classic hope, that Frankel's form does not just look very flash, it has very serious solidity to it.
By:
ben10
When: 01 Nov 10 20:01
Hope Frankel runs in the Derby myself, the Guineas is looking a non-event betting wise but enough for me to take him on at Epsom Mischief
By:
Rowley Mile
When: 01 Nov 10 20:12
What would fancy in the guineas without him ben10 ? I've racked up a good few quid on fury
By:
ben10
When: 01 Nov 10 20:16
Tough one, tbh was impressed with Roderic in the Dewhurst and don't think he's short of speed, can't beat Frankel though surely!? Pathfork would be the other one, thought he may have been value for a bit further than the result with Casamento but that's not bad form anyway now!
Fury a nice enough horse, would have to do it a trial before I consider him though tbh
By:
Rowley Mile
When: 01 Nov 10 20:37
Just a quick one ben10 sorry, any opinion on specific gravity ? Mightily impressed with this one lto
By:
eric_morris
When: 01 Nov 10 21:01
ben10 did you take doubtful stayer Sea The Stars on at Epsom as well?
By:
eric_morris
When: 01 Nov 10 21:12
Agree completely, he would get 1m 2f pulling a train now never mind next season. The last 2 furlongs of the Derby the kick will kill them all in the water. Cant wait for the Guineas/Derby double with the Arc on the cards and a horse we can mention in the same breath as Dancing Brave and Sea The Stars.


cryoftruth Joined: 22 Mar 04
Replies: 491 01 Nov 10 13:48   

Now looking at the pedigree and the fact that Frankel has won over a mile at 2 (and a mile with give in the ground), I would be astonished if he did not stay 10 furlongs very well. I would expect that he would stay a mile and a half too, although this is not certain. However going back to the original point, if h a horse is bred to stay 1 trip they probably will do.

Thus Frankel will probably stay 12 furlongs.
By:
moneyforoldrope
When: 01 Nov 10 21:33
sea the stars was a freak though. not the same prospect as frankel, sts didnt kill himself in his races and was an easy going sort, frankel highly strung.
By:
eric_morris
When: 01 Nov 10 22:00
At the time he was thought anything but a freak, nobody thought Sea The Stars would stay he was around 100/30 into a final 11/4 on the day. The layers only realised what a mistake they'd made after the race and many others including the Arc.
By:
eric_morris
When: 01 Nov 10 22:04
Frankel is the freak with his long margin wins still travelling strongly to the line at the mile pole. Nobody in their right mind can suggest he couldnt have been kept in around 2nd cruising to the mile pole in the Royal Lodge and still cross the line first without being asked anything. He can easily do this at Epsom for 1m 2f then kick with 2 to go. Cant believe people cant see this ... or maybe they dont want to.
By:
bornisthekingofSB
When: 01 Nov 10 22:19
its all about opinions eric you seem to believe he will def stay the 12,while others(myself included)have enough doubts(at this moment in time) to not fancy getting involved at the prices
By:
moneyforoldrope
When: 01 Nov 10 22:27
no i see what youre saying eric,frankel is certainly the top 2y old this yr in a season of very good juveniles imo

at this point i believe PATHFORK is his biggest danger as a 3yr old, and will hopefully go to the guineas now that hes had a slight set back.

i know what youre saying RE sts but thats the thing, they werent sure sts would the get the trip but he always settled so well and never won by large margins so he was always going to give himself the best  chance of getting the mile and a half, and i believe he would have walked the ledger too.

i read somewhere also that there only 1 from 28 horses (galil out of a danehill) has won a g1 over 12f which is worrying but i stand to be corrected on that one. but it was something like that poss 1/24.
By:
eric_morris
When: 01 Nov 10 22:34
Frightening thought is Frankel might be better over 1m4f than a mile if as I think he travels to the 1m2f point what can beat his turn of foot. There is no horse more exciting for next year as he really could possibly be a freak and a wide margin winner of both the Guineas and Derby. HRAC best and most versatile clt he's trained now wouldnt that be something he has had some brilliant horses.
By:
grendel
When: 02 Nov 10 09:12
moneyforoldrope Joined: 27 Sep 10
Replies: 96 01 Nov 10 22:27   


no i see what youre saying eric,frankel is certainly the top 2y old this yr in a season of very good juveniles imo

at this point i believe PATHFORK is his biggest danger as a 3yr old, and will hopefully go to the guineas now that hes had a slight set back.

i know what youre saying RE sts but thats the thing, they werent sure sts would the get the trip but he always settled so well and never won by large margins so he was always going to give himself the best  chance of getting the mile and a half, and i believe he would have walked the ledger too.

i read somewhere also that there only 1 from 28 horses (galil out of a danehill) has won a g1 over 12f which is worrying but i stand to be corrected on that one. but it was something like that poss 1/24.

Searching for Galileos progeny whose damsire is Danehill since 2000 on Raceform Interactive in Group 1's rturns 2 horses, Cima De Triomphe (3 times s.p.s 14/1,34/1 and 150/1) and Crystal Gal (16/1)
By:
neill d
When: 02 Nov 10 11:05
His size more than his pedigree would provide more worry to me, St Nick and Rainbow View are two short priced, small to medium sized horse who haven't gone on as expected as 3 y o's. To my mind the slow early pace in 2yo racing suits him with his blinding speed
By:
moneyforoldrope
When: 02 Nov 10 12:12
thanks grendel
By:
grendel
When: 02 Nov 10 13:12
neill d Joined: 19 Aug 09
Replies: 865 02 Nov 10 11:05   


His size more than his pedigree would provide more worry to me, St Nick and Rainbow View are two short priced, small to medium sized horse who haven't gone on as expected as 3 y o's. To my mind the slow early pace in 2yo racing suits him with his blinding speed 

[smiley:crazy]
By:
neill d
When: 02 Nov 10 13:28
He's more likely to win the Guineas IMO
By:
geoff m
When: 02 Nov 10 14:22
neill the Dewhurst was hardly slow run @ a craking pace recording a faster time than the challenge stakes.
By:
neill d
When: 02 Nov 10 14:52
Indeed geoff I just feel that I've seen a few of these come unstuck in the last couple of years, I just feel slow run races might prove to be his ideal conditions particularly at 1m4f as he is so fast, if he lasts the trip he'd have to be a machine. Something might draw the sting out of him.
By:
grendel
When: 02 Nov 10 15:01
you been reading too much Nick Mordin imo
By:
grendel
When: 02 Nov 10 15:17
In my opinion judging on his runs so far he runs very similar to the way Sea The Stars ran his races, Sea The Stars didn't have a great top speed but had immense speed stamina and was ridden with a sustained run from midfield in the last 3 furlongs, this meant that Sea The Stars ran close to even paced racing and recorded huge speed figures, Frankel has been ridden this similar way in his 4 races as a 2yo and if ridden in a similar style as a 3yo, his opponents setting a faster pace will only do themselves harm as they will be running at an uneconomic pace.  In the Dewhurst he was the only horse who didn't virtually stay where they were relative to the rest throughout the race, the pace set by Roderic O'Connor was an even tempo and against ordinary opposition would have been very hard to beat but Frankel came wide and went past him at will and no alternative pace would have beaten him, in racing to win from being held up when the leader had set the fractions spot on is the hardest way to win.
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