Horse Antepost
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Took the standout 5/1 @ laddies yesterday, will be interesting to see what price he goes off at, can see the price being around 5/2-11/4, what are peoples opinions on this? As im sure the 5/1 will not last long and may have to top up again.
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Replies: 59
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if he runs he will be a lot shorter but with his trainers record of pulling fancied runners out of the race in teh past id want to wait till nrnb.
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Doesn't like Cheltenham and doubt he's a good enough jumper. Very few winners of this race are rated 158. You need a horse of that ability with a mark low/middle 140s with a liking for the track. Great Endeavour for me, took the 6s with Ladbrokes last night.
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Don't think you can say at this stage he doesn't like cheltenham after only one run, was probably over the top by then anyway,having been on the go for around 18 months in France, prior to running in the Feltham.
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booster 28 Oct 10 13:40
Doesn't like Cheltenham and doubt he's a good enough jumper. Christ,horse finishes 3rd in an RSA on his only run at the course yet goes down as not liking the place !. |
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A cigarette paper away from 2nd as well!
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if he runs wont be 5-1 thats for sure
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Will be overbet this season and expensive to follow when pitched in against the best at staying trips. This is a v good opportunity for him but as someone who would have won a wedge the RSA in a double with Special Duty I would be very worried about his jumping at Cheltenham with the taps turned on at shorter trips.
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Now this horse has had a sighter of the cheltenham fences/course he will be in a much better position to put in a decent round of jumping and take this prize. 5/1 is a very good price imo as none of his likely opponents are in the same class, and none of them would have come as close to winning the rsa with a clear round of jumping, let alone the mistake-strewn one this horse put in that day. I know the knockers will say his jumping wont be goo enough or that they will be going too fast over a shorter trip, but he was cantering at the distance in the rsa and they werent exactly crawling round that day.
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Are you not overlooking stunt pilot jockey S Waley Cohen ??
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Today we found out -
Not fit, not schooled, bad jock - Oppose |
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What did Nicky Henderson say about Long Run in Todays RP please?
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he said because it hasn't rained they haven't done any schooling on the schooling grounds at seven barrows, he said he was fresh and needed the schooling. PP is 17th November. Is this too late ? Can he give weight, jumping skills, a lesser jockey and a beating to Great Endeavour ?
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will he beat mad max around chelt.....i dont think so.
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sorry who beat Mad Max GE or LR ?
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lmao ... this horse of all horses hasnt been schooled ... fk me
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yeah you read it as well ?
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Nickie did say he has strenghened ENORMOUSLY
Looks like he need the RUN  |
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No I am believing a total stranger on the internet.
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"Long Run has grown and strengthened enormously over the summer. He is doing fast work and on target for the paddy power gold cup a fortnight today. Yogi Breisner will be here Monday to supervise a session with Sam Waley-Cohen for Long Run over a few Poles in the indoor school before the gelding is asked to jump a fence again as he can be quite keen"
Does this smack of a prep timed to the minute ? I was gob smacked to be honest, Great Endeavour's probably had his eye in for about 4 weeks already they don't stop at Pond House ... |
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Harchi race is on 13th November mate so even less time!
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yeah thanks was thinking 17th for some reason. At this rate Waley Cohen will be better at fences than Long Run !
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Im sure the horse will be ready to run come the day, my doubt would be whether Waley Cohen is upto the job.
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It would obviously be better if Geraghty was on board Long Run, but i wouldnt blame Waley Cohen completely for horses mistakes last year. Also hes not as bad a jock as some here are making out. If u think back a few years hes ridden about 3 winners over the National course at Aintree, which i wouldnt think you could without a decent level of horsemanship skills
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I admit I've made some bad comments re Waley Cohen, and I'm sorry if they've offended anyone they were only overstating in a comical way my belief that with a grand on any horse, win single only in this race you want no stone unturned.
BJG APMcCoy RW PB TJM SWC I'd take any of the above against the last named up that hill and when it comes to fences around chelters. End of jockey point sorry to drag it out. This said if he proves me wrong, and he could well do, then fairplay Mr Waley Cohen |
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Think you're forgetting the jockey will be claiming an allowance in this h'cap,rather than riding at level weights in a grade 1 race.Big difference tbh.
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Still 16lb & a beating to Great Endeavour ? He will have to be the real deal
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A good horse? Yes.
Good enough to win the PP off top weight (Poqueling dependent)? Possibly. Likely? No. If he jumps the last upsides MAd Max and BJG, or Great Endeavour - or any other from a possible dozen would i fancy him? Absolutely not. And because of his tendency to "hurdle" fences - no he wont be 10 lths clear by then! |
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Am i the only one who thinks this horse is really harshly handicaped?
Hammered by Weapons Amnesty in the RSA. Fair enough. But to get rated 158 on beatings of absolute rubbish at Warwick and average horses at Kempton is incredible. His French could be anything and he is an absolute terrible price for the PP. Woeful |
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This debate reminds me of when Denman won his first Hennessy. A lot of people was saying a second season novice couldn't win with all that weight - the rest is history.
I accept the jockey debate but at least sam waley-Cohen can dedicate his time to this horse. |
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Denmans ratings in his novice are way and above long runs and he demolished his RSA field imho.
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Who do you fancy then DJQ for the race?
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I think Great Endeavour will go off Fav imho. The value may lie in those behind him at Cheltenham. Sunnyhillboy maybe
From the NJH stable, i would rather back Mad Max than Long Run |
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I think GEndeavour could be thrown in off his mark though.
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I take a different view. He hit several fences in the RSA but was cantering over them coming down the hill
and to my eye was outstayed. His run at Warwick shows he has plenty of speed, beating several 140 odd rated horses very easily in the end and that was over 2 miles. He also had the 148 rated Tchico Polos well cooked at two and a half at Kempton on his introduction. The distance should be absolutely ideal and as a 5 year old who may well have strengthened I think this horse must have a major chance if he puts in a clear round. |
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I think he may always show his best form on flat tracks and prefer a smaller field than he'll get here.
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he must be badly handicapped isn't he...but i suppose that the jocks claim is bringing it down closer to where it should be...but why is he rated 6lbs higher than burton port for example??
and with the prospect of other well handicapped horses in the race....along with dodgy jock...dodgy jumper....can't have him at all. |
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Top weights don't usually win the Paddy Power.
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Top weights don't usually win the hennessey either......Denman did twice!
Long Run IS the real deal & will look very well handicapped at the end of this season. I believe this season to be a 'changing of the guard'......Long Run will dot up in this....win the King George & go off fav for the gold cup imo |
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More likely to win the King George than the Paddy Power.
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