Horse Antepost

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27 Oct 10 20:26
Date Joined: 15 Mar 09
| Topic/replies: 19 | Blogger: TD_Gunner's blog
Hill's Early Prices ... (Can't find prices on their Website though)

Hennessy Gold Cup: 5 Denman, 11-2 What A Friend, 8 Diamond Harry, Pandorama, 10 Burton Port, 12 Carruthers, Duc De Regniere, Neptune Collonges, 14 Barbers Shop, China Rock, Silver by Nature, Taranis, 16 Madison du Berlais, 20 Big Fella Thanks, GreatEndeavour, Hey Big Spender, Knockara Beau, Notre Pere, Possol, The Midnight Club, The Package, Vic Venturi, 25 bar.

If Weird Al (who is entered) is really over 25/1, I will be having a big e/w bet, he's got a massive chance off 152!
Pause Switch to Standard View **HENNESSY GOLD CUP**
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Report resner not lesnar November 22, 2010 10:01 PM GMT
Madison Du Berlais not had much of a mention yet. I think he's over priced and has a really good chance of at least a place. If running anywhere near his best I think he'll win.
The Tother One's a big price, could also place if he didn't have too hard a race in the Charlie Hall and Pandorama the most likely of the 2nd season chasers to go close especially if the ground is soft.
Report ReaseHeath November 22, 2010 10:08 PM GMT
He probably would n't want it soft in the middle and he had his photo opportunity at Carlisle where he dead heated with the Paddy Power winner. Now he's got his shot at redemption. You can call him Al.
Report Shakepseare's Sheriff November 22, 2010 10:15 PM GMT
Does anyone think Hey Big Spender has a chance.  Stable are in the form of their lives, the horse is improving and gets in on a weight that is just out of the weights proper but with the handicapper going to raise him another 3 pounds anyone, you could argue he is well in.  Only worry is that most of his form is on softish ground.....not much rain forcast between now and the race I cannot see it comming up soft.
Report Extreme Conviction November 22, 2010 10:22 PM GMT
I give The Tother One a big shout aswell at the prices;

Seems to have been about a while but you could say he's still relatively unexposed over fences with only 6 completed starts to his name, which is only 1 more than Burton Port and 2 more than Weird Al.

With his 5lb claimer on he'll only have 9st 9 on his back which is a far cry from the 11st 12 he's usually used to carrying in these kind of races.

With his 5lb claimer on he'll effectively be running off a mark 151, and he's already got some bits of very good form around that mark.

He came 2nd off a 1lb higher mark to The Package (now rated 15lbs) higher and was a staying on 5th (came from a mile back) in the Will Hill off a 7lb higher mark.

His come back run wasn't bad either only being beaten 4lb by Nacarat of levels who is extremely useful on his day. Also he usually comes on a little bit for his first run back. He's won once at Newbury and would have possibly won his only other start but for taking a crashing fall.

The step up to a strong run 3m2 1/2f will surely suit him and seeing as he's been in the places 11/13 completed starts (exceptions trying to slog round 11st4 in the Welsh National - had hard race 17 days previously, and his staying on 5th at the festival) he is definitely no back number at the 70s on here. The place bet at anything bigger than about 8-1 surely represents massively value.
Report Tatie Baron November 23, 2010 4:11 PM GMT
Hey Big Spender not jocked up and no chance of Joe Tizzard doing 10-00. Overweight or new jock?
Report clarkz099 November 23, 2010 4:16 PM GMT
anyone know why big fella thanks has been sent to ferdy murphy? strange choice in my eyes..
Report revedesivola November 23, 2010 4:25 PM GMT
because harry findlay had a falling out with the bha and some trainers spoke out in support of harry, tim vaughan and ferdy murphy being 2, and nicholls said nothing. i think he said nothing as paul roy who is high up in the bha is friends with andy stewart and andy has lots of horses with nicholls including one in partnership with paul roy. as much as how findlay is a loss, andy stewart would be moreso. any qs?
Report kavvie November 23, 2010 6:00 PM GMT
in spite of the ratings etc,noel meade thinks pandorama has the class to win a gold 9s hes a great ew price..
Report Masterminded November 23, 2010 6:31 PM GMT
Report kavvie November 23, 2010 6:40 PM GMT
good logic
Report Brooksielad November 23, 2010 7:52 PM GMT
Two against the field China Rock 25/1 and Taranis 16/1, can't have the first 3 in the betting to be honest they represent terrible value.
Report proctor strikes November 23, 2010 9:07 PM GMT
Not been around much lately, but now proper racings started, will look in more. 

Pity I didnt post this yesterday, but Taranis is a blinding bet now, 14's with Jorals. To be honest until Nicholls comments reported today, I wouldnt have backed him AP as he is a horse renowned for picking up niggles in his prep for races.  Anyhow, he us totally unexposed over distances of 3m+, has won 2 of the 3 chases he has completed (Both graded races) and the other he was pulled up lame in King George. Goes really well fresh, won on last 3 seasonal re-appearances. Whilst I am not Schofiled biggest fan, he has won on him before, and this is likely to have been the plan for a long time. Even Nicholls Stable tour comments of him were very postive without saying too much directly. Bets away.

The other selection still at a nice price for 1st 4 backers is Carruthers - will be let loose of his weight and on good ground, will have most of these at it after a circuit. Connections have thoght for a while he needs better ground, prob jumps better out of it too.
Report Brooksielad November 24, 2010 1:17 AM GMT
CHINA ROCK will have the assistance of Barry Geraghty when he attempts to bridge a 30-year gap for Ireland in Saturday’s Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury

Geraghty had been linked with the Nicky Henderson Burton Port for the Hennessy but would have had to put up overweight and Andrew Tinkler will ride that horse instead.

“I can’t do 10st so it looks like I will be on China Rock. He carries 10st 4lb which is the lowest I can do anyway,” Geraghty said yesterday. “He ran a good race the last day so I’d be hopeful he’d run well on Saturday.”
Report Desmond Orchard November 24, 2010 1:11 PM GMT
It's Carruthers for me. Obviously we don't know how much the 2nd season chasers have improved, but this fella seemed to be going the right way last year and is quite well treated on both his Gold Cup run (cut his own throat trying to make all, I know that's his style, but he finished very tired and was dicked on the line by Mon Mone for 3rd, but weighted to finish upsides Denners now and the form is in the book) and his Aintree performance, where I thought he was pretty unlucky not to win. He is only a pound wrong at the weights, wont mind the ground and at 20s+ on here, constitutes a sound e/w proposition.
I also wouldn't put anyone off Burton Port, I think the RSA will turn out to have been a quality affair and would fancy a fit Weapons Amnesty in this seasons GC. If that is so, BP would have to have a good chance.
Report bigphatairyarse November 24, 2010 1:26 PM GMT
dont think china rock gonna run

just matched at 50

Report jda November 24, 2010 2:13 PM GMT
out to 70s now x
Report revedesivola November 24, 2010 2:28 PM GMT
look at rp
Report bigphatairyarse November 24, 2010 2:41 PM GMT
CHINA ROCK, whose odds for the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury on Saturday ranged from 14-1 with Bet365 to 20-1 with Victor Chandler, has been ruled out of the race.

Trainer Mouse Morris said on Wednesday: "China Rock won't be travelling to Newbury for the Hennessy."

China Rock finished third of seven, beaten four and a quarter lengths behind Kauto Star, in the Champion Chase at Down Royal last time.

He had won both his previous starts this season, having taken a Grade 2 at Gowran Park on his return before beating the likes of Sizing Europe in a Grade 3 at Punchestown two starts ago
Report Brooksielad November 24, 2010 2:57 PM GMT
My luck just recently. Any news apart from im not 100% happy.
Report sintonian November 24, 2010 4:35 PM GMT
No one fancy Silver By Nature .. trainer seems very bullish and they had the opportunity to go for the Betfair Chase last week when the ground conditions would have been more suitable but have come here instead. Although he'll need a career best, like most here, and he has never won on anthing other than Soft or Heavy, he did look progressive last season and is certain to get the trip .. had  poke ew 25/1
Report nineteen points November 24, 2010 5:54 PM GMT
niche market? if it improves a wee bit at nichols and denman just a bit off last years form?
Report Harchibaldy November 24, 2010 6:15 PM GMT
I'm one of the many that would like to see Denman win even though I can't say he's gonna do so, but he does have a lot in his favour. I can't recall seeing a strapping chaser haul big weights so effortlessly since Burrough Hill Lad. I know Desert Orchid did so but he was in a different mould. Denman is tailor-made for the course & distance, runs well fresh and maybe there won't be many that will get their optimal conditions - Madison Du Berlais being a notable exception. His relentless grinding will expose any chinks in the armour of his rivals and he could get them strung out and may only have to fend off a few challenges up the straight. Many will disagree but I don't think the weight is as major a factor to Denman as everybody else does. I remember Burrough Hill Lad was ballasted with a 34lb concession to a quality chaser in Earl's Brig at Haydock some years back, and I was rubbing my eyes in disbelief two from home when he loomed. He didn't make it but he shook off the burden, and that's what I think Denman could do too. Carruthers & Niche Market harrying could affect Denman's  rhythm but I think Carruthers (big engine, and another that looks built for a slog like this) will be forced into mistakes so maybe Niche Market could prove to be a surprising threat. Some of the relative novices mightn't know what's hit them when Denman steps on the gas at halfway and could be pressurised into blunders - Diamond Harry (same type as Carruthers) being the obvious one for me. I think there's a great bunch of promising chasers about now, and their connections may not be too keen to leave their seasons behind, by bottoming them, trying to reel in Denman in what's sure to be a searching contest. That's why I think an exposed chaser in Niche Market (8lb out the handicap with Ian Popham taking off 5lb) with conditions to suit will run well at huge odds. If by some miracle they don't go the pace I'm expecting then Barber Shop is well treated, but has traded at massive prices, so maybe he ain't running. Nevertheless, for a supposed non-stayer, he's ran well over this trip before and he's one I'll be backing if he makes the line-up. I think the way the race is likely to be run will 'hurt' a handful of undoubtedly well-handicapped & hugely promising chasers and I hope Niche Market races prominently as he'll be trading much shorter after the cross-fence.
Report Martin pipe returns November 24, 2010 7:17 PM GMT
"and now 108 appears at 36 - ffs - I'm not gonna be impressed if i hear he stepped on a stone tomorrow."  Calm down fella !!! It's a 33-1 poke - that hardly spells something sinister does it ? FYI I put up £94.44 of that to get rid of the win part of a ton at 33's. Can't see it winning as it's jumping is not slick enough but happy with 8-1 for the place.

Barbers running at Newcastle if that goes ahead.
Report sewter lives again November 24, 2010 7:33 PM GMT
I am increasingly sweet on the chance of Taranis, occasionally makes the odd mistake but otherwise many more +ves than -ves.

Stayed 3m2f at Cheltenham last year, acts well on both soft and good ground, course winner, won after big break, top trainer, won grade 1 chases.

big e/w punt for me
Report Goth 83 November 24, 2010 7:46 PM GMT
sintonian - this may interest you
Report MrDinos November 24, 2010 11:28 PM GMT
I'm with Sint and had a dabble at 25-1 on Silver By Nature, I like this horse a lot!!!! He did me proud last season, he jumps and gallops and will be finishing the race better than most. He does want soft or heavy ground but I think it could be tacky, stamina sapping ground and the likely strong pace will play to his strenghts. Silver doesn't mind running in big fields either!!!

I love Denman to bits but the extra weight and a year older (stats) might go against him this time, I will probably change my mind on the day though when I see him!!!
Report sintonian November 24, 2010 11:30 PM GMT
thanks Goth.
Report sintonian November 24, 2010 11:31 PM GMT
Not sure Newbury is due to get any rain.
Report MrDinos November 24, 2010 11:36 PM GMT
That's the only negative, he has got a good E/W chance! I would be very confident if the heavens opened!!! There are question marks about some of the shorter priced ones as well!
Report Masterminded November 25, 2010 12:17 AM GMT
It's great to see so many people giving an argument for each horse. It's not very often you get a race like this where most think their horse has a decent chance of winning. Roll on Saturday and PANDORAMANIA
Report revedesivola November 25, 2010 12:29 AM GMT
denners will go off strong fav imo as hes an old favourite and all sorts of mugs will latch on
Report revedesivola November 25, 2010 1:18 AM GMT
def worth opposing though imo, but on the day at a shorter price. won one of last 7 races and no real explanation for hangin so bad at punchestown
Report Brooksielad November 25, 2010 10:53 AM GMT
Does anyone else think the way Nicholls has targeted the race this year suggests he doesn't think Denman can with off his mark. He has 1/4 of the field :) Really gutted CHINA ROCK isn't running because i thought 25/1 was massive. All aboard the TARANIS now i think.
Report Stake & Chips November 25, 2010 11:17 AM GMT
Is CR running now? [:x]
Report Brooksielad November 25, 2010 11:26 AM GMT
I hope so i had a stupid bet at 1000/1 just incase he's full of beans this morning and they decide to jet him over.
Report Brooksielad November 25, 2010 11:57 AM GMT
CHINA ROCK, who had earlier in the week been reported to be a non-runner for Saturday's Hennessy Gold Cup, was a surprise name among the 19 declared for Saturday's big chase.

Trainer Mouse Morris had said on Wednesday that the seven-year-old, who had been as short as 14-1 for the race, would not run but his name appeared on the final list of declarations on Thursday morning.

A decision will be made on his participation later on Thursday by Morris, who said: "He's not too bad this [Thursday] morning so I've declared him and will make up my mind at 5pm this evening whether he runs or not."

While there was a surprise name among those who were present, there wereno shocks among the absentees with all the big guns taking their chance.
Report Extreme Conviction November 25, 2010 11:58 AM GMT
5050 according to sky sports website...

China Rock could face Denman in Saturday's Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury.

Mouse Morris said on Wednesday that the seven-year-old was not firing on all cylinders and would not be travelling across from Ireland.

However the trainer has left him in the race at the final declaration stage after signs of improvement over the last 24 hours.

"I declared him just to see what would happen, but at the minute it's 50-50 he'll run," said the County Tipperary handler.

"It's only a minor problem and he's improved since Wednesday, but we're still undecided if he'll actually run or not."
Report Iloveliamslips November 25, 2010 12:10 PM GMT
MM = LEGEND Laugh War of attrition all over again, wise move brooksie [smiley:crazy]
Report sintonian November 25, 2010 12:50 PM GMT
IF he runs makesure everyone backs him imo.

Apparently Geraghty now rides Richard Burton and Dickie Johnson would be on China.
Report Brooksielad November 25, 2010 4:19 PM GMT
Out aparently oh well :)
Report buddeliea November 25, 2010 6:31 PM GMT
Dont have a strong fancy at all on the more fancied runners.Will wait till Sat morning and have a look at the bigger prices,and probably spread a few bob on 3 or 4 of them.Looks the sort of race wher if you aint careful could lose a lot of money,too tricky imo.
Report zilzal1 November 25, 2010 6:36 PM GMT
Will it even be on, getting pretty cold down here in Berks.

Might have a look at the Kempton card instead
Report Luke01 November 25, 2010 6:53 PM GMT
Weird Al beats Neptunes collenges , with Denman 3rd.
Report Big Bucks John November 25, 2010 6:58 PM GMT
MADISON DU BERLAIS[;)] won the race 2 years ago so you know he stays and loves the track, has beat Denman a couple of times before once by 23lengths and Denman is giving him two stone on saturday, bearing in mind also That Madison has had a nice prep run a ...month ago whereas Denman's first run for 200 odd days. Pipes horses in fair form and is his only horse in the race, there are a lot less proven, and less experienced horses at shorter prices.

Value bet of the Jumps season so far (prob on a par with Monet's Garden the other week)
See more
Report revedesivola November 25, 2010 7:00 PM GMT
Report Albion Dan November 25, 2010 7:04 PM GMT
I really liked Weird Al, and also had a fancy for Big Fella Thanks, however I am willing to let those win now, as at the prices I have to back NEPTUNE COLLONGES. 20/1 is surely each way value. There are question marks over many in the field, do they have the ability to run to marks capable of being competitive in a gold cup, we know for a fact Neptune is (or was) capable of running to about 175. Off 164, and with only 10 8 on his back, if anywhere near his best he has to have a massive chance.  The lay off is obviously a negative, but Nicholls is very capable of readying one after a long absence, and i know it cant be used as a general rule, but horses often run career bests off a long break (taranis, gauvain for example) so at the odds i am more than willing to take the risk.
Report resner not lesnar November 25, 2010 7:37 PM GMT
Dan , Neptune Collonges if anywhere near his best will be tough to beat. Was my original fancy before deciding on MDB. Eventually decided against him as he doesn't have a good record first time up, and as you say the injury is a worry. Certainly a very backable price now though
Report Albion Dan November 25, 2010 7:51 PM GMT
Resnar, I did also look at his record first time out, and it does appear he strips a lot fitter for his debut outing of the season, however he has run some decent races fto.  2nd to our vic when a 5 year old, and more recently he was holding every chance over in ireland before tipping up 2 out, with exotic dancer in behind. I dont think ED would be 20/1 for this race off this mark.  Also, I think the long term layoff is a bit different to seasonal debut. Often with a fit horse they will have long term targets throughout the season so will have some work left in them, whereas Hales has stated they are wary of the bounce factor, hence going for a big prize first time up.  This leads me to think he will be raring to go.  I obviously may be wrong, and he may not be 100%, but as i say, the odds are appealing enough to take a chance.
Report booster November 25, 2010 8:36 PM GMT
Diamond Harry has always been my number one for this but I'd have liked to see some rain and am starting to have doubts. The one I like on goodish ground is Taranis, now a 9 year old but has had only 7 runs in 4 years, winning 2 Grade 1s (1 at Cheltenham as a 6 year old) and who proved he can go well fresh when winning at Cheltenham in January in the process proving his stamina. As a 5 year old, he fell 2 out in the Paddy Power when lying 2 lengths second and in front of Exotic Dancer to whom he was conceding 8lbs as a then 5 year old. His next run was in The **** when he finished a 5 length 3rd to Exotic Dancer off levels on ground which may have been too soft but Nicholls always said he'd save him for the Ryanair and he'd improve for better ground. He'll never again get the chance to run off 10st 4lbs and all his runs point to him being top class.
Report brendrew November 25, 2010 8:40 PM GMT
Agree with Madison 3/4 on course-only defeat when 4th in this race?

Also Dream Alliance at 50/1 e/w-but 113/1 on bfair.Too good to be true.

Finished 2nd to Denman a couple of years back-won the Welsh National.Good e/w poke.
Report marvinho November 25, 2010 8:45 PM GMT
Agree Dream Alliance is a ridiculous price. Could do with a bit more rain but can certainly out run his mark with a 5lb claimer on board.  This looks very competitive but he will definitely stay and Hobbs is in as good form as I can recall in recent years.  100/1+ is an insult imo
Report JOCI Club November 25, 2010 8:57 PM GMT
Madison looked to be going backwards last season - not to be trusted.
Report flannybhoy. November 25, 2010 9:34 PM GMT
Hi all any idea what happens if race is off due to weather , im hoping not went for a 1-2 , Silver By Nature and Niche Market . Thanks in advance for replies
Report Scottyh22 November 25, 2010 10:03 PM GMT
geraghty to do 10st to ride burton port, im happy!
Report revedesivola November 25, 2010 10:07 PM GMT
not worried about him being weak and light headed?
Report FCH November 25, 2010 10:36 PM GMT
Dream Alliance - an unbiased view [;)](as some of you here know I have a small share in him).

His last three completed chases, spread over 3 1/2 years, are 1st in the Perth Festival Handicap, 2nd in the Hennessey, 1st Welsh National.  As you can see from his record he's either brilliant or doesn't complete.  Therefore, I am hoping that even at nine he may still be unexposed to some extent.  If he is on a going day he won't be far away.  Philip Hobbs has always maintained that good ground is fine and on paper his best performance over hurdles was on going the fast side of good at the Festival.  I make him more of a 25/1 shot than 100/1.

On Saturday he will run off his correct weight, admittedly with a claimer on board, and his sequence of runs at Newbury to date is 4th, 3rd, 2nd.  I am hoping for the sequence to continue, although, of course, there are a number of potential improvers in the field.

If our guy doesn't win then lets hope its the mighty Denman, but from a mark of 182 its going to be some ask for him, but wouldn't it be great for racing.
Report TD_Gunner November 25, 2010 10:47 PM GMT
Good luck FCH.

Cannot wait for this race now, absolutely buzzing.

Come on Weird Al!!
Report Masterminded November 25, 2010 11:33 PM GMT
I have looked at the ratings, the weights, the likely going and all manner of things but have instead devised a mathematical sum to reveal the winner of the big one on saturday..

Carberry+Pandorama=Hennessey Cool
Report sintonian November 26, 2010 10:20 AM GMT
thought Dream Alliance would be prepping for the National ?
Report Thommos_Lovechild November 26, 2010 8:02 PM GMT
Is Geraghty sawing a leg off to make the weight on BP?
Report revedesivola November 26, 2010 8:04 PM GMT
Laugh id say hes goin to be leight headed and proper woosey anyhow
Report Thommos_Lovechild November 26, 2010 8:12 PM GMT
thought 10st 4 was his lowest riding weight!! Anyway, have taken the hint and backed him!!Laugh[;)]
Report revedesivola November 26, 2010 8:14 PM GMT
sure is. hes goin t have to dehydrate himself
Report revedesivola November 26, 2010 8:14 PM GMT
... plus a bit of wasting
Report Thommos_Lovechild November 26, 2010 8:16 PM GMT
He'll be ok. Must think the horse is worth it!
Report biffarama November 26, 2010 8:38 PM GMT
have to say - one of the best hennessys of recent years tomorrow.  Really what the industry needs, hope for a grandstand finish.

Neptune Collognes a massive ew price imo off that rating.  Have to think PN will have him ready and while he might get run out of it in end, i think an ew bet to nothing
Report custardcream64 November 26, 2010 8:45 PM GMT
It's  a great race in prospect and i'm lucky enough
to be there tomorrow .
It would be brilliant if Denman does the business
and i certainly wouldn't rule it out .
At the bigger prices , Hey Big Spender catches my eye
but in truth 7 or 8 have good chances .
Report biffarama November 26, 2010 8:48 PM GMT
agree custard.  it will be sky plussed as ill be at twickers for some egg chasing. Could be one to cherish. Gladly by being there means i wont be backing all 8 that i think can win when i keep changing my mind
Report sintonian November 26, 2010 11:17 PM GMT
Anyone not feel it is a bit of a gamble betting on Neptune ? I get the handicap angle as he is/was a class act, and his trainer is the daddy in Graded chases, but didn't have a serious injury ? A ruptured Tendon ? That would be a worry for me, tbh, i'd almost feel like i'd be betting blind if I were to back him.

A big factor though I suppose is the fact Nicholls has said he might come one for the race, which usually means they win.
Report Albion Dan November 26, 2010 11:55 PM GMT
Neptune is a bit of a gamble, but he was 20/1.  Nicholls has said he is over his injury.  At least we know he was capable of top class form, it is a bit of a gamble backing any of the second season chasers who we would be guessing at their potential.
Report downallstar November 27, 2010 12:08 AM GMT
Hugh Taylor tipped up Neptune (and Taranis) today Sint.
Report sintonian November 27, 2010 12:18 AM GMT
cheers, I've just been over and read it.

said he has resorted to old fashioned handicapping for his selections as he does not fancy the ones at the front of the market. I thought he might have gone for Carruthers then tbh, given he has a 10lb pull with Taranis from the Cheltenham run but he must have been put off by his debut at Ascot. On various runnings Carruhters look very well handicapped of his weight imo, he just needs to Jump!! Silly

Hard to believe he is a 7yo it seems like he has been around for ages.
Report sintonian November 27, 2010 12:23 AM GMT
what's Gunner backing ? Weird Al ?
Report downallstar November 27, 2010 12:24 AM GMT
Yep, WA.

Pando & Neptune here, savers Silver & Dream All.
Report sintonian November 27, 2010 12:31 AM GMT
good stuff.

Carr & Silver for me too.

Pando is in my TTF list so no qualms if he wins either.

Laters Daz!
Report apieceofcake November 27, 2010 2:40 AM GMT
I really like Taranis in this.

Yes he has had a lay off, but that never stopped him p1ssing up in the pillar chase last year.
He has a great record after a good break, and is one of the few horses in the handicap proper.
Ground should be fine but I suppose my one concern is whether he will get the trip or not?
He has always looked like he was a pacy type to me rather than a true stayer, but at a double figure price this is more than compensation imo.
Tbh I think the 2nd season chasers may struggle. No evidence but just my gut instinct that they may all not be that great a crop.

Apart from Taranis, Denman surely has to go well given how he has performed in the race before. I feel he must be bang there at the finish.
Neptune Collonges is well off at the weights with Denman on his Gold Cup running but is he as good as he was? Hard to know obviously, but Nicholls and Hales are happy with him so that is enough for me to think a good run could be in the offing. If he had shown his wellbeing this season there is no doubt in my mind that he would be vieing for favouritism running of his current mark.

So in short, I will be perming the 3 in tricasts and hoping for a nice, big retirement fundCool

As always gl all
Report red and white November 27, 2010 10:35 AM GMT
If Burton Port is thereabouts at the last he wins as he has the best turn of foot in the race. My  concern is will his jumping stand up under the pressure to get him into position? As a novice they seemed to think they had to ride him out wide as if he needed a long look at his fences. He may not get away with that today.
Report booster November 27, 2010 10:50 AM GMT
Best turn of foot definitely belongs to Diamond Harry who laughed at Burton Port giving him lumps of weight at Haydock first time up last year. I'd say there's a slight stamina doubt for Diamond Harry plus you're taking a chance on his jumping but he's sure to have been well schooled and a fast run race should help.
Report buddeliea November 27, 2010 12:05 PM GMT
Have a feeling this will take some getting today,Silver by Nature for me at a nice price,and think Dream Alliance price is much too big,and worth a shot imo.Also going to take a chance on the fitness of Neptune,nice weight pull with Denman.
Report The Sawyer November 27, 2010 12:11 PM GMT

I am surprised you say that as the times over the last couple of days suggest the ground is good, especially when you consider that they are racing on the courses' widest line. A lot of the contenders' form has come on slow ground and I was siding against these (which didn't leave much left!!).

On another thread I thought Denman would have too many "young pretenders" to have it all his own way, but I am beginning to change my mind. One to watch I think - filed in the too difficult tray for me.

Good luck on your picks.
Report buddeliea November 27, 2010 12:27 PM GMT
Fair comment,just think(or hoping!!)that their will be enough juice in the ground to make it a pace that will suit him.He will stay forever and if he CAN avoid getting outpaced has a chance,although i accept if it is more good than soft,then will probably struggle.Still he is a big price!!
Report red and white November 27, 2010 2:52 PM GMT
I'm not put off by the Haydock form booster. Burton Port progressed and Diamond Harry regressed to my eyes. I won't back him until after the last though. My big hope is Weird Al and am praying he's over his last race.
Report red and white November 27, 2010 3:16 PM GMT
Well done booster. It was obviously his target. I backed Burton at the last as well.
Report Brooksielad November 27, 2010 3:17 PM GMT
Denman lost nothing there fantastic
Report sintonian November 27, 2010 3:39 PM GMT
Denman is not going to race again until the Gold Cup according to trainer. He'll need to break too.
Report Far From Trouble November 27, 2010 3:52 PM GMT
fantastic performance from a true racing great in Denman

wd Harry backers, love that horse too
Report booster November 27, 2010 5:41 PM GMT
Thanks Red and White, sure your horse will have his day. His profile says he improves as the season progresses but think slightly longer trips will show him in a better light.
Report red and white November 28, 2010 10:22 AM GMT
I think three miles would be OK. As I feared his jumping came under pressure. He made a couple of mistakes prior to the cross fence which nearly brought him to a halt. After that he did remarkably well to get so close. Diamond Harry won deservedly as his jumping was far superior.
Report booster November 28, 2010 11:42 AM GMT
Yes, quite possible as he did win over 3 miles at Aintree and he was clearly second best yesterday under Diamond Harry's optimum conditions. I would actually fancy him to get closer or in front by Cheltenham I suppose.

By the way, are you a Stoke fan?
Report red and white November 28, 2010 2:03 PM GMT
I'm a mackem. If you're a Stoke fan booster you'll know my team well as you take a lot of our players and do very well with them given your budget. We have a huge budget and lose to the likes of Wolves, another team that takes our so-called cast offs. We can beat the likes of Chelsea on our day though so I fancy us for a cup run this season.
I think they may be tempted to go the King George route with Burton. Barry will need a ride as the owner will probably stick with his son on Long Run. You obviously know the Aintree form well so have another look at the finish and you'll see what I mean about his turn of foot on a faster track than yesterday's. He'll need to jump much better though as he tried to carry the cross fence home with him. I rate the two novices yesterday very highly. They pulled well clear of one of the all time greats and there were plenty other good young horses taking their chance in a high class renewal. I backed Diamond Harry for the RSA and allowed my disappointment to linger into this season so ignored him beforehand. Emotion got in the way again.
Related to the Aintree form I just want to thank you for your WN tip. The more I studied the form the more interested I got and I'm sure you'll be aware your horse easily beat last year's WN winner a month beforehand over hurdles at Chepstow on soft. He'll be very well in propably off something like 10 stone, had a decent enough prep and handles the track and likely ground. Just the sort of winter warmer I was looking for.
Report red and white November 28, 2010 2:08 PM GMT
Forgot to mention, on his first ever chase run he beat a small though decent field over 3m2f so the distance shouldn't be a problem either.
Report booster November 28, 2010 3:21 PM GMT
Yes, I'm a Stoke fan and we do well to keep our place in the top flight but some of the footie played is not really to my liking so rarely go. More likely to be at Uttoxeter, Bangor or Cheltenham on a Saturday I'm afraid but always watch them on TV and probably go 2 or 3 times a season.

Dance Island first came to my notice when he routed Dream Alliance over hurdles as I'd backed Dream Alliance and really thought he was the type to go well next time but disappointed if I remember. Really fancied him at Warwick as one of my main theories on betting is that horses (especially over jumps) have a preferred direction and he likes to go left handed. As often happens, I didn't back him there and didn't bother next time but did so each way at Aintree.

Even allowing for the fact that Burton Port could have run slightly below his best, Dance Island is undeniably well handicapped looking at Take The Breeze and his subsequent run behind Massini's Maguire at Ascot assuming he's not gone up for his Haydock second. I backed him that day but the trainer seemed to think in his notes that he'd need it and I feel Chepstow over Christmas may well be his time. Let's hope so anyway.
Report booster November 28, 2010 3:25 PM GMT
On the subject of Burton Port, I don't know if he'd be quick enough over 3 miles round Kempton but I'm sure there'll be races for him. If not the Nationals, maybe the Lexus, Irish Hennessy, Cotswold or AON Chase could give him compensation. He's the type to always give you a run for your money and may be underestimated due to the presence of Long Run and Punchestowns in the stable.
Report red and white November 28, 2010 7:19 PM GMT
Yes, I think he will be underestimated. I'm not saying he can win a King George but if they go that route I think it a no-brainer he will be much shorter on the day. Personally I think Long Run would have a great chance of beating Kauto with a pro on board. No disrespect to Mr. Whaley-Cohen who has shown the bottle and ability to win given the right ammunition but he wouldn't be riding in Grade 1's if it wasn't for his dad putting him up. If it was my son I'm sure I would do the same. I'm envious of your location. My nearest track, Perth, is 90 minutes away and they only jump during the summer. Well worth a visit though.
I'm very bullish about Cue Card. What's your view? He runs in the Bula a week on Saturday weather permitting. We have one and a half feet of snow just now so I lose track of what's happening weather wise down south.
Report Harchibaldy November 28, 2010 8:59 PM GMT
R&W - Cue Card running in the Bula? That's ambitious at this stage of his career. I'll be laying him.
Report booster November 29, 2010 6:56 AM GMT
On the subject of weather I'm supposed to be attending a meeting in South Shields and one in Newcastle but can't see me making it this week as we work with schools so they may be closed anyway. Bitter cold down here but hoping Folkestone goes ahead as we're running our horse there. Perth looks great, especaially the meeting in April/May, one of many things I have to do when my 3 little ones have grown up.

If you've got a good price on Cue Card for Cheltenham, I'd say it's worth gold but not sure which race he'll turn up in. As far as The Bula goes, unless he was over 3-1, which I doubt, I wouldn't be going in but that's because I don't back at shorter than that.

At Kempton, I respect Long Run, who is a classic flat track chaser and could go really well but also have a soft spot for Planet of Sound each way, who I backed at 25-1 in the morning of his Punchestown Gold Cup victory. Loves going right handed and had a nice sighter at Haydock. 20-1 each way well worth having a look at.
Report red and white November 29, 2010 11:25 AM GMT
You have a horse? Nice one. You could maybe find an excuse to run him at Perth. Although it's a long way to travel the competition isn't strong. Southern and Irish trainers like Hobbs, Twiston and Elliot seem to hoover up and the form rarely seems to work out when they run back down south so it's not as if they're bringing their best animals. The course would have to be one of the nicest in Britain and is managed by Sam Morshead who was a top amateur jock back in the golden years. I'll have a look at Planet of Sound's videos. Seem to recall he's a bold jumper. The form against Imperial Commander will be strong and I would certainly back him to reverse it at Kempton (def not Cheltenham) though I doubt IC will run due to the cut he sustained.
I have Cue Card at 146 for the CH. I backed him for the Cheltenham bumper so I'm definitely biased and as such my view should be treated with caution. All I would say is each time I see him I feel like I'm watching Montelado who I thing could have been one of the greats if it wasn't for the dreaded injury. I also took a view early on that Colin Tizzard is bold enough to go for the Champion if he thinks the horse is good enough. Hopefully we'll know one way or another in a couple of weeks.
Still holed up in Aberdeenshire - would be away skiing if the roads were open.
Report booster November 29, 2010 12:14 PM GMT
Have a few quid on Chord at Folkestone today. No good thing by any means, quite a tricky race for the money but unexposed and fancied.
Report Harchibaldy November 29, 2010 1:36 PM GMT
R&W - was it you that mentioned Montelado on another thread recently? I can't remember if it was, but as a fan of the horse myself, I'm probably not telling you something you don't already know in that he was the first Cheltenham Bumper winner in '92. Furthermore, not a lot of people know this (Cockney accent) but he's the only horse to have won CONSECUTIVE races at the Festival. PS - any further Bula Hurdle news?
Report red and white November 29, 2010 2:17 PM GMT
Shame your meeting was abandoned booster. Must have been a late decision.
Yeah Harchy I had a real soft spot for Montelado. He beat the good thing Tianenman Square in the bumper didn't he then followed up in the Supreme in a time quicker than Granville again in the Champion. I just think Cue Card races and jumps with the same zest and puts daylight between himself and the rest in similar fashion. I hope I'm right and I am now and again though I've been left bemused more often.
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