Workforce

US turf performers at least a stone below likes of Workforce including Gio Ponti, Winchester and Paddy O Prado.

So long as they go a decent gallop so no fluke result, US horses not in same league as Europeans at this distance and on turf

... no I'm not US based, but do keep an eye on the top US graded races

Gio going for the mile isn't he and Paddy for the Classic

well in that case, if Workforce handles the travel and any acclimatisation issues, must be a cakewalk (sorry behkabad supporters)

defo not a cakewalk imo some very good arc winners gone and been well beaten

depending who goes where, prince will i am, al khali, winchester and champ pegasus all capable graded stakes performers

my pref wud prob be in the order i listed them if i had to back a us based horse

this is there big day and it always worth bearing in mind when trying to assess ability

GL

don't know much about prince will i am (other than appears untested beyond 9f on RP website), but al khali (form ties in with Winchester) can't even beat Redwood and Joshua Tree - they are 7-8 lengths inferior to Workforce, not in the same parish.

Are you confident he'll run to form Pedrobob, bearing in mind how he ran after the Derby?

no figgis, except would put a lot of faith in the trainer and that he would not send him unless the horse was A1.
I think Stoute knows he made a mistake running in the King George after having such a hard race in the Derby where he smashed the track record. He won easily yes, but it took a lot out of a young horse having only his third start. But don't get the impression that the Arc was such a lung bursting exercise as Epsom where the jock admitted straight after that he had put the gun to the horses head, and wondered whether he had done the right thing.

Being kept in training at 4, has absolutely nothing to prove by winning the Breeders Cup as the opposition far inferior to the Arc.

You right to question whether the horse can do it back to back, but would be confident that the trainer won't make the same mistake twice.

Horse is a champion in my opinion, think the trainer knows it, and he's hardly going to jeopardise a potential stellar 4yo campaign by bottoming him here. That in itself is a big hint - they were similarly careful in the build up to the Arc, and any problems at all, they won't run.

I don't know yet if I'll be playing on the race but even though I was against Behkabad in the Arc I think he has a decent chance here. I still stand by the opinion that he wouldn't have beat Workforce with a clear run but I think he wasn't at his best that day. I thought he might bounce after the Prix Niel, which was one of the reasons I opposed him. I reckon his best form is as good as Workforce's. As I've said before, I think Workforce's Derby win looked more impressive than it was and his Arc form is about as good as he is. If Behkabad returns to his best form I think he has as good a chance as the fav.

Also, with the narrowing of the weight difference between the 3yos and older horses, Byword would have a major chance if he can be freshened up after his below par run last time.

Not sure if he's a runner though?

prince will i am is 3 from 2 since switching to turf - it finished 3rd at saratoga after a break (1 1/8m i think) then won an allow over 11f and the grade 1 over a mile. the improved form has been brought about by switching to the turf and holding it up.

i still think its a big ask to expect workforce to run to its rating after a big effort in the arc

i not sure how i wil play this race but i am starting to think the us ponies are a bit of value

the one that runs to the highest rating on the day will win not the one with the highest rating

GL

Byword untested over 12f except a slowly run Prix Foy, and had best figure for him when 2nd to Goldikova in the Prix D'Ispahan over extended 9f when 10 lengths clear of useful sorts in Wiener Walzer and Stacelita, so couldn't really be with him.

I had Behkhabad only 1 lb below his Prix Niel best in the Arc, hence another reason why I can't have the argument that he was unlucky. Seeing the replay again yesterday reminded me that he didn't make an inch of ground on Workforce for the whole final furlong plus when in the clear and Workforce had already done his running in the previous furlong to go clear.

Behkabad strikes me as more of a galloper, and could see him struggling if ever asked to take in 10f races like the Eclipse, Irish Champion or Juddmonte International next year (is he being kept in training?). Was beaten in a 1m listed back in April, wand as running on when 4th in the French Derby etc (only time beaten by Planteur in 4 meetings)

Whereas Workforce has always shown a lot of speed to win his maiden, the Derby, to go clear in the Arc etc and pretty sure that Stoute won't be keeping him to 12f in 2011. A 10f Group 1 surely on the agenda somewhere, possibly the Eclipse or Irish Champion.

Presumably the turf track at Churchill Downs inside the dirt track, so will be more of a test of speed than stamina, that will surely also play more into the hands of Workforce rather than Behkabad?

Workforce had a relatively light year with only 4 starts, so doesn't go to the Breeders Cup having been on the go all summer like plenty of previous British challengers as an afterthought.

As mentioned previous, if trainer thinks he's fine to go, that will speak volumes having messed up once already in the King George.

turf track at churchill is a 7f oval and is inside the main track

pace in these races is normally slow early so will prob be a sprint from the middle of the home turn

size of field will be important and the standard of ride they get will be vital imo

i suppose they could use byword as the rabbit? the abdullah team did similar in F+M turf last year and Queally got out of jail big style

setting up to be a great race if they all turn up

if they did go slow, Byword would indeed be dangerous if got first run in a sprint and manage to last home at this distance. Surely Juddmonte aren't planning to both are they? Byword would be better off in the mile?

Thanks for all the replies,looks like its a race to watch rather then bet on.

if it helps any, sica dan, stable won this last twice with Conduit.
Workforce would be comfortable 10-12lbs better than that horse
Wade in

Quite a big difference in our ratings then Pedrobob, I have Behkabad running a 10lb lower figure in the Arc compared to the Niel. I also make Workforce similar on ability to Conduit, in fact Conduit's figure in the Eclipse is a bit higher than anything I have for Workforce. If Workforce wins the BCT impressively then I'll have to consider upgrading his Derby figure but the Arc just confirmed my Epsom rating for him.

I would guess you adjust for weight carried figgis and pedrobob doesn't

Yeah weight carried but not wfa adjusted, Grendel, you?

Mine are just raw speed figures, I prefer to say a horse has run such and such a rating carrying a certain weight, not assuming it would run above or below that rating if carrying 9st.  In the form I can then see if carrying big weights affect its ratings, some do and some are unaffected.  I did dabble in weight adjustment but my figures went all over the place and I was happier and more successful in not including it.

I had Conduit career best when winning the King George from Tartan Bearer, 3lbs higher than 3rd in Eclipse to Sea The Stars.

Had him running 12lbs below his best speed fig to win Breeders Cup at Santa Anita last year.

Allowing for WFA, I would have rated Workforce 9lbs (not 12) higher speed fig than Conduit if they produced their best on Derby Day this year

Very much doubt that the Breeders Cup will produce any improved figs for Workforce. Opposition aren't strong enough, and by sounds of it, won't be a anything like a decent gallop.