RACING POST TROPHY

Don't do selections without a ramble - sorry.

Here goes:

I mile trip and with forecast for quite a bit of rain overnight measn going will be between dead and soft, so horses proven on the ground and that are bound to stay well fits the bill.

Zaidan - probably not good enough, and ground doubts.

Toolain - may be dodgy and doubtful he's good enough

Titus Mills - unproven on soft going, defeat of Big Issue doesn't ook good enough either, breeding doesn't suggest soft ground would be ideal either.

Seville - bred to stay miles, and will definitely stay and like the ground. however seemed to have a rather high head action and although won last time easily, got a smack and the form is 20lbs or so behind the favourites. A likely big omprover but stable jock's deserted him in favour of a rather exposed alternative. Not for me - sorry Jiffti

Native Khan Has big reputation and unbeaten winning twice on fast going. Bred to stay well next year. Form of his last win looks to leave him plenty to find though. Going an obvious doubt too.

Master Of Hounds - choice of J Murtagh, trainer has fine record in this race with his stoutly bred Galileo's and Montjeus well suited to the test. However Master Of Hounds took 4 runs to win a race and his form is the poorest on offer despite him being the most exposed horse in the race. Also he is unproven on going softer than good. of course he may improve for the softer going, but that is not certain and he just looks not good enough.

Karam Albari thrashed by Saamidd last time and doiesn't look good enough

Dunboyne Express - recently backed for next year's classics and second favourite for this. Had a setback after a very taking effort of softish going last time when  sprinting well clear in the Anglsea Stakes over 6 furlongs. Bred to stay a mile but not much further. He will probably have the best speed in the race, but a slight worry that he might find this a stiff test of stamina at this stage. The form of the Anglsea Stakes is hard to assess, with Glor na Mara improving massively since. If it is a slowish race his turn of foot would be a worry to all - decent chance.

Dubawi Gold - amazingly I cannot rule this one out. last time out he got 7 furlongs and softer going for the first time and improved about a stone on previously modest form (in the context of this race). he needs to improve again for the extra furlong and if he does would have a place chance at huge odds.

Cassamento - favourite on the basis of an easy win on soft ground over a mile in the Berresford Stakes, having previously only just lost out in a photo to the high class Pathfork over 7 furlongs (would have won in 2 more strides). He has the best form (which is very solid too), will enjoy both trip and ground, seems bang in form and will take a deal of stopping especially as he has both stamina and speed. he looks a very worthy favourite to me especially as there are doubts about either the ground requirements or the quality of most of the likely opponents.

Selection Cassamento (value at 2/1 or better)

Next best Dunboyne Express

Good luck all.

Don't do selections without a ramble - sorry.

Here goes:

I mile trip and with forecast for quite a bit of rain overnight measn going will be between dead and soft, so horses proven on the ground and that are bound to stay well fits the bill.

Zaidan - probably not good enough, and ground doubts.

Toolain - may be dodgy and doubtful he's good enough

Titus Mills - unproven on soft going, defeat of Big Issue doesn't ook good enough either, breeding doesn't suggest soft ground would be ideal either.

Seville - bred to stay miles, and will definitely stay and like the ground. however seemed to have a rather high head action and although won last time easily, got a smack and the form is 20lbs or so behind the favourites. A likely big omprover but stable jock's deserted him in favour of a rather exposed alternative. Not for me - sorry Jiffti

Native Khan Has big reputation and unbeaten winning twice on fast going. Bred to stay well next year. Form of his last win looks to leave him plenty to find though. Going an obvious doubt too.

Master Of Hounds - choice of J Murtagh, trainer has fine record in this race with his stoutly bred Galileo's and Montjeus well suited to the test. However Master Of Hounds took 4 runs to win a race and his form is the poorest on offer despite him being the most exposed horse in the race. Also he is unproven on going softer than good. of course he may improve for the softer going, but that is not certain and he just looks not good enough.

Karam Albari thrashed by Saamidd last time and doiesn't look good enough

Dunboyne Express - recently backed for next year's classics and second favourite for this. Had a setback after a very taking effort of softish going last time when  sprinting well clear in the Anglsea Stakes over 6 furlongs. Bred to stay a mile but not much further. He will probably have the best speed in the race, but a slight worry that he might find this a stiff test of stamina at this stage. The form of the Anglsea Stakes is hard to assess, with Glor na Mara improving massively since. If it is a slowish race his turn of foot would be a worry to all - decent chance.

Dubawi Gold - amazingly I cannot rule this one out. last time out he got 7 furlongs and softer going for the first time and improved about a stone on previously modest form (in the context of this race). he needs to improve again for the extra furlong and if he does would have a place chance at huge odds.

Cassamento - favourite on the basis of an easy win on soft ground over a mile in the Berresford Stakes, having previously only just lost out in a photo to the high class Pathfork over 7 furlongs (would have won in 2 more strides). He has the best form (which is very solid too), will enjoy both trip and ground, seems bang in form and will take a deal of stopping especially as he has both stamina and speed. he looks a very worthy favourite to me especially as there are doubts about either the ground requirements or the quality of most of the likely opponents.

Selection Cassamento (value at 2/1 or better)

Next best Dunboyne Express

Good luck all.

Master Of Hounds - I think this has probably been the plan and have therefore left enough room for him to improve enough to win. I don't think he will be far away.

I have Dunboyne Express 5lbs clear of the next best, Casamento. I was impressed with the time DE clocked on debut and it was good to see him improve on that next time. As COT says though, the trip is an unknown. There are no such doubts about Casamento, however, I don't rate his Beresford win any higher than his National Stakes 2nd. He's lightly raced so it would be foolish to say he can't improve again but my feeling is that's as good as he is. It's decent form but somewhat below the recent standard of RPT winner and with some promising types in opposition I'll be disapointed if that level of form proves good enough here.
My pick would be Dunboyne Express but the way I'll be playing it is a lay of Casamento.

agree with above....there was a very similar winner trained by k ryan
a few years ago,like dub gold,a resolute galloper.

Master of Hounds looks a solid EW bet at 7s, has the form in the book and sure to improve for the step up in trip, ground not a worry as long as there isnt a deluge, decent chance and a fresh horse

Here is my theory.. and it has worked nicely for many, many years.

I love to decipher Juvenile races over a mile, as at such an age ( fair dues this is late on in the year ) not many actually get the trip.

This years RP Trophy is a standout for my system as only one horse in the race started his career over the 8f, and came second in a field of 15, and only one other in the race has placed over the trip.

My firm e/w pick is SEVILLE.

I haven't been following the market at all and when I finally went to look today I expected Casamento to be 6/4 or maybe a touch bigger.

3/1 is massive.

I agree entirely with Figgis.

COT how can you say master of hounds form is the poorest on show, the 2nd's behind dunboyne express and roderic o'connor arent too shabby.

I agree entirely with Figgis and Can't Catch Me.  DB a standout bet for me.  Should be 9/4 not 9/2.  Wade in time.

Native Khan for me. His Newmarket maiden win looks well, trip wont be a problem, and seeing how his sire managed to handle softer ground, I dont see the argument for NK not doing so.

Not over impressed with the Irish form, and the O' Brien horses are only so short in the market due to the trainer's name beside them.

Toolain at 25/1 was the value call for me as i make it a 14/1 shot and forget its last run, blinkers on and given another crack here.

Well done COT, was much better than I thought.

Kevbetting superstar Joined: 02 Sep 01
Replies: 1048 23 Oct 10 12:04   


I agree entirely with Figgis and Can't Catch Me.  DB a standout bet for me.  Should be 9/4 not 9/2.  Wade in time.



what an utter, utter, sheep and mug. don't you have any opinions of yourself?

Judging by the times the ground reads more like good to firm at Doncaster so it was even more impressive that the winner showed he could also handle that ground at the top level. Looks like I underrated the National Stakes form, the Curragh often gives me a headache when the ground deteriorates, so both Casamento and the horse who beat him, Pathfork, have the potential to make top class 3yos next year.

Jockeys are syaing it is Soft!

The same applies to Seville.

Unless there's a gale blowing up their arses on the straight those times would be impossible on soft ground, sint.

The winner was always in the right place, travelled very kindly and while not showing a devastating turn of foot like SNA last year, he was always doing enough and won very snugly. If it weren't for the Godolphin factor he'd be a worthy 2nd fav for the Guineas behind Frankel, but I don't see him getting a mile and a half on breeding.

Native Khan and Dunboyne Express were both in poor positions from the off and especially when the race began in earnest and both ran ok in the circumstances and can be given another chance.

That was the Fastest Racing Post Trophy ever run

Native Khan ran ok and it was an improvement on previous form but I thought Dunboyne Express was very disappointing and it looks like that setback probably took something out of him.

Native Khan was the one to take from this race surely!? Thought he stayed on well, could develop into a very serious horse!

dunboyne had no chance figgis after kevsheep tipped it. he jinxed it for you.

Wouldn't say Native Khan was massively eye catching - I agree he is capable of a bit better than he showed there but he woud never have beaten the winner. Thought Dunboyne ran like a horse who needed the race - which given his long break and injury problem wasn't too surprising.

I agree. The winner looks to have a class edge on the rest. That may sound obvious given that he won the race .. but he never looked in d danger of getting beaten and battled as well.

I'm not sure the renewal was the greatest. The winner has good solid group 1 form, but he needs to improve quite a bit on that to win a classic. I am not sure that the second has the speed to wina  Derby either. I would be very surprised if anything from the race won a classic next season.

I agree that it wasn't an exceptional renewal, but it was a good one and as far as the Derby is concerned, I much prefer a slow burning 2yo with decent rather than outstanding form as I feel they are more likely to progress than the headline making precocious types like Frankel. They also usually offer better value.

Around this time last yer I get fairly caught up in the St Nicholas Abbey 'hype' over his apparent amazing turn of speed in this race last year - which nobody ever saw again. Now someone states this year's renewal was the fastest (fastest!) RP Trophy ever....?!

So, lets have some 'educated' talk on in here re: next year's prospects......... Is there a Classic winner in this race? Is Frankel that good? Is Billys 5s on the Classic double good value. (He's evens for the Guineas.... already!)