Clerk's Choice (time aficionado's please)

He even finished in front of Forte Dei Marni on the flat at Sandown

Looking at times in a more depth, it turns out that of the last five Champion Hurdles run on good ground, only Istabraq bettered the time Clerk's Choice put up yesterday.

I have used Timeform's going descriptions as I do not trust the 'official' descriptions offered at the Festival.

In 1998 Istabraq won in 3.49.10: a year later he clocked 3.49.01.
Yesterday, Clerk's Choice sauntered home by 21 lengths under little more than hands and heels in 3.49.25

Early pace would have, of course, contributed yesterday, but Rooster Booster's good ground time in what is described in the RP as a race where Intersky Falcon set 'a furious pace', was more than 5 seconds slower than Clerk's Choice.

Bear in mind too that Istabraq was 6 when he won his first Champion.  Clerk's Choice almost equalled that time at four-years-old, not fully pushed out.

Winning Time: 3m 51.3s
Pos.     Draw     Dist.     Horse     Wt     Jockey     Trainer                    AGE          SP
1             Starluck (IRE)     10-12     T J Murphy     A Fleming     4     5/6 f
      held up in last, closed going well when not fluent 3 out, went 2nd after 2 out, went left and led on bit last, cruised away flat, impressive opened 5/6 touched

http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Racing/0,27770,339778_3,00.html

Imagine if he would of asked for the same effort on Starluck as he did on Clerks Choice from 2 out to ...

Im not knocking his fanastic performance yesterday, but when comparing times you need to take into account that he was carrying 10-12 & not 11-10 like previous Champion Hurdles.

Fair point bigben.

scoop6winner, Starluck's run was on good to firm

Where they on the same course as the horses times you're comparing them with ?

Istabraqs  Champion Hurdles ...

2000,  12st  3m.48s.1 good ... Quickened clear impressive...[:D]
99,    12st  3m.56s.7 good to soft soft in places... ridden out...[;)]
98,    12st  3m.49s.1 good to soft...very easily...

Hardly a fair comparison clerks choice 133 rated horse, to the greatest champion hurdler of all time.. carrying 12st..

Where they on the same course as the horses times you're comparing them with ?

Yes, I'm reasonably sure there have been no changes since Istabraq's day.

Saturday October 17 2009
Race Result Cheltenham 14:05 - Result
Sportingbet.com Hurdle
£50000 added, 4yo only, 2m 110y, Class 2, £31310 penalty, 5 ran
Going: Good to Firm, Good in places
Winning Time Winning Time: 3m 51.3s
Pos.     Draw     Dist.     Horse     Wt     Jockey     Trainer     Age     SP
1             Starluck (IRE)     10-12     T J Murphy     A Fleming     4     5/6 f



Saturday October 16 2010
Race Result Cheltenham 15:15 - Result
Sportingbet.com Hurdle
£50000 added, 4yo only, 2m 110y, Class 2, £31310 penalty, 8 ran
Going: Good, Good to Firm in places
Winning Time Winning Time: 3m 49.25s

Pos.     Dr.     Dist.     Horse     Wt     Jockey     Trainer                      Age     SP
1             Clerk's Choice (IRE)     10-12     T Molloy     M Banks      4     14/1

I think thats what you could call spliting hairs RE: going

scoop6winner, on the evidence you cite, it would indeed by unnecessary hair-splitting on my part, but I did say in my original post that I was using Timeform's going assessment and for Starluck's race they judged it good to firm and for CC's yesterday, good.

"Yes, I'm reasonably sure there have been no changes since Istabraq's day. "



There's a old and new course, i was just wondering if both times compared where on the same track. One has a longer run in.

Only 1, 5 year old in the last 25 years has won the Champion hurdle KATCHIT in  08, and 73 five-year-olds had been beaten in the race since See You Then registered the last five-year-old success in 1985


The others  who were 5 year olds

SEE YOU THEN in 85  (again in 86,87)
NIGHT NURSE  in 76  (again in 77)
PERSIAN WAR  in 68  (again in 69,70)

As you can see the horse will have to defy alot of stats as well as follow some of the greats.

The Main stat that puts a nail in his coffin for me is 5year olds dont win the race if they are trained by small stables...NEVER , hes a million for me for next years champion. 33/1 is not value.

Just something to think about lads, B4 you invest your hard earned...

Both old course

My first thought after yesterday was that connections had blown a terrific mark, also thought Barizan ran terribly after being taken on early.

33/1 a fair price for ch hurdle, no more no less

scoop6winner, age stats are almost meaningless imo.  73 5-y-olds might well have been beaten during that period but how many 6, 7 , 8 and 9-y-olds were also beaten and what correlation is there with price/chance on form?

I suspect a very high percentage of the 5-y-olds beaten had little chance on form and were probably big prices.  Also, to say 5-y-olds NEVER win a CH from a  small yard - that's nonsense: Colin Davies who trained Persian War was a small trainer and before Persian War a number of smallish trainers won the race with 5-y-olds.

Anyway, the skill involved in training racehorses is much over-rated: you get to know the animal's quirks then get him/her fit.  An over-simplification perhaps, but too many people believe 'top' trainers have some sort of mystical powers. They don't.

Katchit ,when it won the CH was rated 159 (circa 160+ required for a champion), as a 4 year old he was rated 144 when he won the Triumph Hurdle in March,

As a 4 year old now Clerks Choice is rated 131 in October(13lb less but 7 months further down the line). He will have to improve 2 stone in the next 6 months to even think competing in   the race...

More food for thought...

so colin davis 42 years ago trained the last 5 year old winner from a small stable thanks for putting me right.how times change.

Erm, it was you who brought Persian War into it, alongside the word NEVER . . . you seem pretty determined to have the last word and I'm happy for you to do so.

I posted here in response to the original author. I am not saying CC will win the CH, only pointing out that, in my view, 33/1 against him doing so seems very good value.  Good luck.

Steeple, i am only adding the facts and figures as i go along, Persian war was a 5 year old, that is the only age stat i was interested in, it could of been called anything just happened to be one of the greats as NN and SYT. you was the one going on about older horses... if those stats/figures were put down in front of me, 33/1 is not value its not even fair...

As somebody on the right side of 50, i do not tend to look much further back than the size of trainer circa 1960s as i would find that completely irrelevant and the use of the word NEVER was wrong, and for you putting me straight on the matter,like i said i am grateful....

If CC wins the champion you have every right to bring this back up and say i told you so.
Good luck

Greatwood next, or has the mark been blown as perp suggests?

the obvious next race for him is the £40,000 added 4yo hurdle at haydock on 20th november. He gets a 4lb penalty for his Cheltenham win but still gets 4lbs from Barizan.Its his last opportunity to run against only 4 year olds.

Thats Another one of the trainers concerns, that he has only got 4 races he can go for b4 christmas, and has effectively blown his mark...

I made a comparison to starluck as it was in the same race last year. and as flat horses starluck was rated 92...CC 85.

I also found that Barizans novice race last year quite interesting on the same going as CC (Going stick 8.1)Although the race was 5.5 seconds slower, he carried 8lb more as a 3year old,


Friday October 16 2009
Race Result Cheltenham 16:40 - Result
Lemington Juvenile Novices' Hurdle
£9000 added, 3yo only, 2m 110y, Class 3, £6262 penalty, 4 ran
Going: Good to Firm, Good in places
Watch Full Race» Watch Closing Stages»
Winning Time Winning Time: 3m 54.7s
Pos.     Draw     Dist.     Horse     Wt     Jockey     Trainer     Age     SP
1             Barizan (IRE)     11-6     A P McCoy     Evan Williams     3     1/4 f

Don't know if there was any rain at Chelt overnight, but Clerk's Choice ran 4.1 secs quicker than the 128 rated Astracad in the last race on Friday, carrying 8lbs less.
So assuming no rain overnight, and also assume Astracad ran to his mark, then can compute Clerk's ran to 136.... and for every 1lb think Astracad ran above mark, can add that to Clerk's.
Raceform had the same going correction both days, but thought there was plenty of rain around on Friday night? Anyone know if there was in Cheltenham?

Very interesting boys.

Pedro - no there was no rain to change the ground, quite the opposite, with the times of two of the races on Sat (CC on the 2m chase) suggesting it had got a bit quicker.

In my view, final times in NH races only assist in assessing the going adjustment for that day and I have found that looking at split times on the same day (or next day) is a good form of comparison. Also the way races are run over jumps has a massive influence in the final time.

What I do is look at the split times (from hurdle to hurdle) of different horses in races run over the same distance at the same meeting. So this weekend at Chelt gave three races all run the same way, with a front runner (used Lucaindubai in the last on Friday) and a hold up horse winning.

Because the clock starts when the tapes go up (and at the weekend the 2m hurdle races were all started with the runners well off the official start) I look at the times from the first hurdle to the winning post. So in the three races I have matched Barizan with Fiulin and Lucaindubai and the three winners of the races with each other. In addition I have adjusted the split times to take account of what I consider to be slightly faster ground on Saturday.

Firstly what I was surprised with is that the 122 rated Lucaindubai would have finished in front of Barizan, although Barizan carried more weight - if you include Fahy's claim there isn't much between them on the time it took them to get from hurdle no.1 to the finish.

The winners of these two races, Astracad and Clerks Choice are apart by 15 lengths (in favour of CC), with a weight allowance of 8lbs (taken STD 3lb as he is probably worth it) gives CC the edge by a "rating" of 7. I would also add 3 "ratings" onto CC as his final split, last to winning post, was 3 lengths faster than Astracad.

This last bit of the puzzle is quite surprising considering the fact that although CC hadn't apparently been involved in the pace set by Barizan, he was 15 lengths clear of Astracad at the third hurdle.

So putting all that together, if we give CC 160, then Astracad gets 150?? If we give Barizan 140, then Lucaindubai gets about the same?? I notice that the RP give CC 155 and Astracad 140 (and I agree with this latter figure making the Friday handicap very formative) but only therefore rates CC at 150.

Only future runs will throw light on the real value of CC's race, but I would rather be looking to back the first three home on Friday evening in a handicap (providing Phil Smith isn't reading this).

good read Sawyer, was wondering how to rate Astracad

pedro

sorry got carried away with those two races that i forgot to say that in the other race it produces figs of 130 for King of the night and 120 for Fiulin although i imagine the "official" ratings will be higher

Good stuff sawyer, as i thought to back up the stats,  people are getting carried away with that performance from CC, would be nice to see what CC can do when it carries some weight.

For the first time in a long time we have some like minded folks making valuable. I say very valuable, contributions, however boys I should point out that I'm not into sniping so lets please be pleasant in our discussions. It is about opinion and nothing more. I've done my usual £50 that I usually do at this time of the season as a starter and it probably is money down the drain but there you go. Isn't this what our great Forum by the way should be about? Maybe I'm a silly old Hector. We can all dream and next March it would be nice if a few of us could win a good few quid. Thanks again contributors.

I should point out that I'm not into sniping so lets please be pleasant in our discussions. It is about opinion and nothing more.

Well said.  From my own viewpoint (though 99% of my posts are during the NH season), I find most posters on the ante-post forum, pleasant, courteous and well informed.

Some people's posts can come across as abrasive without the author necessarily meaning to be; it's often hard to convey tone in writing.  On the flipside, some post to be deliberately antagonistic and it's up to each individual whether or not to get wound up

Anyway, good luck with your bet

^ I seem To have a knack at that steeple, but seriously i dont mean to, its the tone in which i type, strange how lots of written things get taken in the wrong context.

As a reader of many of your post, you seem to know your stuff, but the way i do things its all race stat related, it works for me
So as age stats might be meaningless to you iyo but not imo.

5 year olds dont vary rarely win the champion , which in my opinion has not been factored into the the price, and to imply one trainers as good as the next is laughable imo.

its about opinions ,for  people to make their own mind up, not for you to dispel my comments which are facts, . just take it or leave it, and let people make their own mind up.

you dont trust the official going, i dont trust timeforms official going.

And its nothing to do with having the last word.

^ I seem To have a knack at that steeple, but seriously i dont mean to, its the tone in which i type, strange how lots of written things get taken in the wrong context.

I don't find your posts at all abrasive; lively and opinionated, yes, but that's what it's all about.  I never 'dispel facts', never have as that would be stupid. Of course not many five-year-olds win the CH, that is a fact - it's the interpretation of facts and stats that I often take issue with.

Here's an example I've quoted more than once on the forum: in late 2007 I was hugely impressed by Cap Cee Bee's first two victories of the season and marked him down as one for the Supreme. Now, as you  know, come Festival time the stats boys are out in force and to a man - including Paul Jones (Weatherbys Guide author), they said throw out seven-year-olds in the Supreme, they do not win it.

CBB was 7 and I did a bit more research on this supposedly very solid stat to find that in the previous ten runnings of the Supreme only a handful of seven-year-olds had actually taken part.  Even amateur statisticians would dismiss the sample as far too small to make a judgement on, so I backed him accordingly and said a silent thanks to the stats boys for helping him drift to the price he won at.

That's why I mistrust age stats above all else.  Those using them simply do not have a full set of reliable data.  IMO, stats in general are used very lazily by many people - everyone wants a shortcut rather than putting in piles of work.

I'm sure you and other stats lovers can produce lots of race results where stats 'highlighted' the winner. But close examination often shows that numerous losers in the same race also qualified under the stats 'system'.

Stats and trends can offer a general snapshot of patterns based on past races, but those who dismiss 'non-qualifiers' under each heading on a tick-list basis are bound for the poor-house.

A horse wins a race, not because of stats nor even because it is the best horse in the race; it wins because the way the race is run on that day suits it more than the its rivals.

As for trainers, I am not saying one is as good as the next. I am saying that any competent trainer who knows a horse's quirks and how to get it fit, will do just as well with that horse as a top trainer, all else being equal - jockey skills, nutrition etc.

'Small' trainers are usually much more profitable to follow too as hype does not affect the price.

The real skills of the likes of Nicholls lie in handling people rather than horses.

Finally, on the going front, clerks of the course in general and Cheltenham's in particular do not have the word  'punter' in the top ten of their so called stakeholders when deciding the going.  Many declarations are 'politically' motivated.

Timeform, at least, have the  invaluable merits of a team of experienced people (not a single clerk with an agenda), stopwatches, and, vitally, objectivity.

But, you pays your money . . .

trends/stats are meaningless unless you can infer some reason, logic or rationale as to why that trend predominates.
As you pointed out, Steeplechasing, very few 7yos run in the Supreme Novices. Mainly because most NH horses of any ability have gone chasing by then. So to say 7yos don't win the Supreme is a bit short sighted and negligent in not giving time to understanding why they don't.

fwiw, I've settled on a figure of 147+ for Clerk's Choice on Sat, but could be more, because that figure means that only Royal Mix of the beaten horse horses ran to their previous best.

Out of interest Scoop6, why do you think it is that 5yos have such a poor record in the Champion?

strength and seasoning

Thanks for that steeple, everything you said in your last post taken on board. Although i probably use stats/trends for  making a general assumption of a race ,i do also try to add a bit of form study before making the final verdict.

Just had chuckle to myself because i also Fancied CCB for the Supreme but hey ho the stats said NO. lol

I think it did the same last year re: Sizing Europe had loads of ante posts bets at all prices but decided to lay the lot back because of a stat... Hence i had the worst stat related Cheltenham in years... your never to old to learn...

To be fair pedro what J1970 says is alot to do with it, katchit won a sub standard champion for me and was a one hit wonder.

Alot of people read to much into this first meeting at cheltenham where the fit horses have an advantage, i have got carried away before with these races, and i try to find why these horse cannot win rather than why they can, especially when carrying no weight, in small fields, according to PN Royal Mix had been working well with Great Mates non of them turned up on saturday.

Fair play scoop6.

It turns out that 5-y-olds have been more numerous than I'd have thought - although the figures look slightly skewed by 1997 and 2009 with 7 5-y-olds in each of those.  I only have access to results going back to 1996 but from then till 2010 inclusive 47 of the 215 CH participants were aged five (21.86%).

Katchit was the only winner; there have been two 2nds and six 3rds.

The market suggests that talent rather than age is the reason for their  relatively poor record with only 9 of the 47 starting below 12/1.

For the record:

2@150/1
1@125/1
6@100/1
4@66/1
3@50/1
4@40/1
5@33/1
1@28/1
4@25/1
4@16/1
3@14/1
1@12/1

Ironically, the two shortest priced ones, both 6/4 (Detroit City and Binocular), were beaten.

Good read again this morning boys

I thought I would carry out an exercise comparing Champion Hurdle "time ratings" with the Triumph figures for each of the last six seasons (very nostalgic and most enjoyable for the anorak that I am!). what I would point out is that they are figures based on the race times as published in the racing post (with my own going adjustment used). I hope the table appears ok:

2005 - Hardy Eustace (151): Penzance (138)

2006 - Brave Inca (174): Detroit City (153)

2007 - Sublimity (149): Katchit (157)

2008 - Katchit (169): Celestial Halo (142)

2009 - Punjabi (161): Zaynar (157)

2010 - Binocular (172): Soldatino (141)

The TH figures include WFA allowancel

So your reason Steeple that talent is the biggest factor for 5yo in the CH is probably spot on, with Katchit and Zaynar running prominently (well winning and coming third) and although Celestial Halo has achieved prominence in the CH this would probably have more to do with his class in being able to win the Triumph from the front.

Taking it onto this year, which is probably more relevant as after-timing wins nowt, it would appear as if last years "champion" 4yos are not up to much. Indeed Orsippus winning at Liverpool might have confirmed this without the trip down memory lane! So an unexposed 4yo winning last Saturday should perhaps not have been unexpected: fwiw his final time rating for Saturday at Chelt was 140.

Just a final point on last years TH when compared using the hurdle to hurdle split times with the next race, the County, Thousand Stars was 12 lengths down on Soldatino jumping two out but finished 10 lengths in front. After adjusting for the weights carried and the final split (on which I put more emphasis than the rest of the race) Thousand Stars could have feasibly been rated 150 for that win. Having seen what he subsequently achieved (and Dee E Williams) perhaps I should.

Good luck if you're getting involved today

good read again Sawyer.

fwiw, think that winning a (normally) lungbursting Triumph as a 4yo is not dissimilar to being hardtrained as a 2yo on the flat, winning the early mid-summer Group races and then not training on to 3yo+ eg connections presumably think that of Zebadee?

Most Triumph winners will have little scope for further physical improvement, whereas those NH stores brought along more slowly, will still be getting better at age of 6 and 7, have a lot less mileage on the clock, and there enthusiasm for racing less dimmed. Penzance and Katchit (despite winning the big one!) being the 2 prime examples from that list of the last 6 years, whilst 2 other admirable types in Zaynar and Celestial Halo are showing signs of having hit their head against a brick wall having won just 4 of their collective 15 starts since taking the Triumph

just read on another thread that he is to be officially rated 162!!

CC recorded a 135TS and a 155Rpr figure when winning on sat. In my opinion this is around 2 stone short of last seasons champion hurdle when Binocular posted a 163TS and a 175Rpr when fresh of the operating table . Binocular did this carrying 12lb more on slower ground. 

CC has alot of improving to do still, although he is improving quickly.

but will he run in the champion hurdle?horses this young dont go that route do they?

Looks like this could be a long lasting thread re the champion and i suggest (if your up for it) that we carry on with it...

Getting back to Clerks Choice for a minute, I just think this type of horse will get better with age, as basically he is still a novice.

The other thing that is of concern to me is that he is limited to where he can run, i truly believe that connections did not expect him to be as impressive to the eye as he was at weekend. where does he go next without getting clattered about as a 4 year old non novice...

Excellent analysis gentlemen, thanks.

Pedrobob,I started a thread last year on how comparatively quickly Alan King's horses seem to burn out (my thread burned out pretty quickly too .  Interesting to read your thoughts on Penzance and Katchit.

yes scoopsixwinner its hard when you have got a good horse, if he were mine i would wait till say january febuary one prep for chelters  patience is very hard when you gotta pay bills?but many good 4yrlds have been overaced with big penaltys in recent seasons if they do run and get beat in the champion at least they may have the chance to come back following year, hope they take the long view!

162 looks an over reaction

Incredible mark, what price would he be in the Schweppes of 162 ffs

ROFL.... i have just picked myself up. . well at that rating 33/1 is top value..

Jockey Club member Michael Banks has had a permit and trained a few horses for most of the last thirty years - but rarely can he have had a day like Saturday, writes Dave Dickinson.

With Cheltenham welcoming back jumping for the first meeting of the season, the Sportingbet.com 4-y-o hurdle, looked to be between Triumph hurdle second Barizan (146), his Aintree conqueror Orsippus (142) and Royal Mix (141), who had beaten Ma Voici (137) on his hurdling bow at Newbury last November but had been absent since.

It was obvious before the final flight that the Banks-trained Clerk’s Choice had not read the script, and he powered up the hill to win by no less than 21 lengths in a fast time. Given that last year’s winner of this race, Starluck, subsequently finished fifth in last March’s Champion Hurdle, this is now one small yard who can dream of success on the biggest stage without it being a total flight of fancy.

Could the horse be flattered? Well, yes he could, as the early pace was nothing short of ridiculously fast. But Orsippus apart, most of the protagonists on Saturday seem to have run somewhere near their marks - I've therefore given Clerk's Choice full credit for his achievement, putting him up 31 pounds to 162. A mark which makes him by some way the highest rated four year old hurdler in training...

source: BHA

Jockey Club member Michael Banks has had a permit and trained a few horses for most of the last thirty years - but rarely can he have had a day like Saturday, writes Dave Dickinson.

With Cheltenham welcoming back jumping for the first meeting of the season, the Sportingbet.com 4-y-o hurdle, looked to be between Triumph hurdle second Barizan (146), his Aintree conqueror Orsippus (142) and Royal Mix (141), who had beaten Ma Voici (137) on his hurdling bow at Newbury last November but had been absent since.

It was obvious before the final flight that the Banks-trained Clerk’s Choice had not read the script, and he powered up the hill to win by no less than 21 lengths in a fast time. Given that last year’s winner of this race, Starluck, subsequently finished fifth in last March’s Champion Hurdle, this is now one small yard who can dream of success on the biggest stage without it being a total flight of fancy.

Could the horse be flattered? Well, yes he could, as the early pace was nothing short of ridiculously fast. But Orsippus apart, most of the protagonists on Saturday seem to have run somewhere near their marks - I've therefore given Clerk's Choice full credit for his achievement, putting him up 31 pounds to 162. A mark which makes him by some way the highest rated four year old hurdler in training...

source: BHA

Royal Mix (Fr) - Timeform Rating h131p

It's hard to know quite what to make of the two-mile conditions' event at Cheltenham in which Royal Mix made his return. Firstly, the race went the way of the rather unheralded Clerk's Choice, while it must also be noted that the pace set by reappearing Barizan was an overly-strong one, neither he nor last season's surprise Aintree winner Orsippus at their best as it turned out. It's probably best therefore to remain positive about the unexposed Royal Mix, who beat Grade 1 winner Me Voici on his sole start in 2009/10 and promises to benefit from further than the trip he tackled on Saturday...

source: TIMEFORM

TIMEFORM
16/10/10  CHELTENHAM  (Hurdle)
16 furlongs, 110 yards.    Gd/Frm    1 of 8    14/1             rat  150+    Tom Molloy
CLERK'S CHOICE (IRE) looked a young hurdler going places fast, this a performance a league apart from his impressive efforts in lesser company in the spring, the way in which he travelled into contention and his most fluent jumping auguring really well for his step up further in class, even though the run of the race and the below-par opposition have to be taken into account, the view taken of the form very much on the conservative side; he coped well with the much stiffer track, though he wouldn't necessarily benefit from a slog.

Worth noting from a time viewpoint that, on Sunday, Timeform reported the ground as Good -  I see here they have amended it to good to firm.

The difference in fitness in the first three must have a serious bearing on the result here, and the winning distance. Start of the NH season is no different to the start of the flat, its a big plus if to have your horses that bit fitter if you're a smaller yard, esp as most of the bigger yards will have bigger days planned for a lot of their horses. The merit of this race has yet to be decided.

CC was a visually impressive winner, but he is not worth a 162 rating on the basis of that race, its at least 10lbs too high imo. He will have to prove it against the big boys before I believe the hype. He'll also be a 5yo next year, so already I cannot have him. 33/1? No thanks.

Steeple, with the above 3 posts, 1 from the BHA handicapper, 1 timeform race review and timeforms view on Clerks Choice, where does that leave us know seeing as i think we have covered almost everything???

I still cannot think how the handicapper thinks Barizan ran to his best, especially as he went off at a cut throat pace(which the handicapper admitted), Royal Mix was not 100% and according to his trainer needs further, both of these horses were definitely not suited by the good to firm going(something that will not happen at the festival)... To give CC a rating of 162 is saying (to put it mildly) we are not taking a chance...

Ahh, who knows scoop6.  Timeform always assess on the conservative side which I think is very wise until more evidence is available.  Their altered assessment of the ground devalues the time aspect of the performance imo.  My own thoughts were that the BHA might put him up as much as 25lbs so even I was surprised at the new rating.

My key concern, as mentioned earlier, is the ground, and the fact that Timeform classed it as fast ground deepens that concern. I'd like to see him reproduce close to that run on a slower surface before making any further judgement.  Wherever he goes next(surely Haydock against his peers?), he's most unlikely to get Saturday's ground again, so we could find out pretty soon.

My other worry is that he might prefer a decent break between races; his final two runs last season were just 11 days apart and he probably was not as impressive as he should have been on the last one.

All in all, I'm happy to stick with my initial judgement - based more on his tactical speed, hurdling fluency, attitude and turn of foot, rather than the result itself - that he is a very good horse in the making if he is not too dependent on ground conditions.

More I watch more I think this could be a flying machine.

guys can i point out that when this thread started i explained my timefigures had produced a conservative mark of 163. over the 2 days there were 3 races run over 2miles and all the true times have been analysed including sectionals. dont take the official times watch recordings and time from the orange marker to the finish line. i do not have the exact difference to hand but there was around 5.3 secs dif between astracad 128 and clerks choice with 1.5 lb per length and my own length comparison per second that puts clerks choice mid to high 160s . for his mark to be false every horse in clerks choice race must have run at least 10lb below form. trust me this horse is a real contender with only 5 or 6 higher rated hurdlers around and hes only ran 5 times over hurdles

Good man Raddish.

I don't want to start a fight radish but I can't agree that a mark in the 160,s is appropriate. For one thing Barizan clearly ran too free and missed a couple of hurdles down the back straight. If he ran to his mark then he is capable of much better. That makes me doubt the others, who ran to their mark only if barizan ran to his. It seems more likely that Barizan was maybe 10lbs below his best due to being taken on for the lead and for jumping poorly.

Also i am not sure about allowing 1.5lbs for a length even on fast ground. Its a debatable point but more normal to use 1lb a length over 2 miles.Again that brings us back to the mid 150's for Clerk's Choice.I think the official handicapper took the form literally because the usual method is to find one of the placed horse that ran to his mark and handicap accordingly. That doesn't work if they all ran below their best which may be the case here.

Barizan did run his race, he knows no other way!

early season race, we don't really know how forward or fit each of the runners are at this stage and a strong pace had them well strung out.

we have a 141 rating for the 2nd horse which is based on the subsequent efforts of the 2 horses he beat at newbury and that doesn't look too reliable when you delve further into their races. I'd prefer to have him at around 131 at the moment.

Barizan and Gilded Age triumph hurdle runners. I don't know about anyone else but I thought at the time the Triumph was weak last season and that the fred winter was a stronger renewal. Barwell Bridge didnt't run too well last week and Gilded Age looks very ordinary to me.

Ultimate doesn't seem to get home in a strongly run race at chelters and his mark is too high anyway. The others ran well below form.

With Barizan being taking on for the lead and possibly going too quick I'd reckon he's probably run to low to mid 130s.

All in all it's not an easy one to rate form wise but I'd go 151/152 for Clerk's Choice and Royal Mix 131.

I think the ground was a fair bit quicker than when istabraq won his champiom.
The 5 yr old novice chaser Killmurry(carrying 10 lb more) won his race in a time 3 seconds quicker than Champleve won the Arkle.

STOPWATCH CLERKS CHOICE...

Lap1         00.00        10.24
Lap2         31.88        42.13
Lap3      01:09.01     01:51.15
Lap4         21.46     02:12.62
Lap5         35.01     02:47.63
Lap6         15.99     03:03.62
Lap7         22.72     03:26.35
End           18.49    03:44.85


STOPWATCH STARLUCK




Lap1         00.00        10.56
Lap2         33.94        44.50
Lap3      01:10.46     01:54.97
Lap4         21.85     02:16.82
Lap5         34.34     02:51.17
Lap6         15.26     03:06.44
Lap7         22.25     03:28.69
End          18.07     03:46.76


LAP 1, Is fro the start to the first hurdle Lap 2 is the second hurdle and so on, as you can see. from the fifth hurdle to the finish Starluck was quicker hard held.

I will stick Evan Williams quote up re BARIZAN in a minute...

It was an improved run by Clerk's Choice for sure, but just how much better? Up to Sat he looked a somewhat progressive horse on the flat and that translated into ok hurdles form, but nothing special. What happened during the summer to suggest that he might have improved 30lb? That's very unusual unless something has happened such as gelding or wind operation. On times I can't have him at more than 152 projected without rating Lets Be Serious a special bumper winner. Horses have a maximum top speed (over 2-3 furlongs)and once adjustments have been made for course and going they just don't go faster than a certain top speed.So, until proven otherwise,I rate CC still shy by around 14lbs plus off the rating needed to challenge for Grade 1 honours.

I used the Starluck race as it was the corresponding one from last year, on the same going.

Starluck ended up with a rating of 147 for the race, CC has got 162 so how anyone can think that he was 15lb better than starluck is beyond me..

BARIZAN...

He won the Punchestown champion 4yr old hurdle in April very well. He has shown us absolutely zero at home, so we started him off at Cheltenham on Saturday to see where we stood against the other 4YO,and to see where we could go with him,
We had massive hopes for him but the others have improved past him.
We have to be realistic and not kid ourselves. He is not going to be a championship contender, its disappointing, but that's racing, so we will school him over fences and he will go novice chasing.

Evan Williams.

Sorry that should of been from the 4th hurdle to the finish he was Quicker..

Sandown

Let's be Serious ran almost 10 seconds slower in the bumper - am I missing your point as I can't see how this particular race fits in with CC.

I too was wondering about your comment on the bumper winner, Sandown?

How does that one's time make it a special bumper winner when you have Clerk's at no more than 152?

I too was wondering about your comment on the bumper winner, Sandown?

How does that one's time make it a special bumper winner when you have Clerk's at no more than 152?

guys lets all remember that what makes this game what it is is the different opinions it produces. there is no doubt in my mind that this horse is a value 33-1 shot as he is an improving novice yet to fully show his hand. who thinks after his next run some big owner with a first class trainer may be waving his chequebook .lets remember with all respect mr banks is a71 year old permit holder who doesnt have the facilities or capabilities of the top boys

He might have a dream though raddish , what would be a fairytale ending, i am sure at 71 money may not be an incentive...

Year on year we all make assumptions on the first decent performance of the season, i am sure there will be alot of horses to like, B4 the big one.

I cant wait to see how CC performs against Peddlers cross in the fighting fifth... because that is on serious horse, who is reported to be alot bigger and stronger this year.

The time taken at the end of the race i.e. over the last 2f/hurdles represents max speed for comparison purposes. Letsgetserious was 1.6 secs faster (rated to 2f) than Clerks Choice which puts it high up on the best figs. To rate CC higher puts LBS on a fig which I'm not yet prepared to accept. It's an another anchoring device as is adjusting for handicap marks through a going allowance. When its difficult to be sure about race comparisons using conventional rating yardsticks it helps provide another measure - providing you have sufficient history with which to compare.

Sandown, I've never used timefigures so speak from no experience at all, but isn't that 'final 2 furlongs/hurdles' system hugely flawed as it takes no account of how the race was run?  I would imagine that in many races over jumps, the final two furlongs/hurdles are the slowest of the race.

I think you are right Steeple, although I personally will compare the last flight to winning line time with other races on the same day (same meeting providing the hurdles haven't been moved) and place more emphasis on this split: clearly the speed they have gone to that point is also as relevant and the final bit can be meaningless.

As soon as I posted questioning Sandown's comments I realised what his response would be re the final "sprint" to the line as I always read his comments (sometimes in awe!) but feel they are often more suited to a flat turf race rather than 2 miles around Chelt.

And as for the press comments of quickened clear final furlong, this should usually read "slowed down less quickly against more exhausted animals".

I am hoping that Sandown will offer a little more insight into his "final sectional" ratings as maybe I am missing something.

What about the times i posted earlier... any thoughts ?

Scoop, one of the problems with comparing times over hurdles at different meetings is that they shift the hurdles around, although looking at the splits, they look quite close to this years renewal of the race.

I have re-jigged my time figures, bringing the going allowance over the two days a little closer together: originally I had quite a difference in the going over the two days, but have now brought them closer together. Although that slightly enhances CC's time rating, it lowers Astracad's figures and therefore doesn't extend the gap between the two races by a great deal.

Depending on whether you take STD's allowance off the weight of Astracad, I now rate CC at 154 or 157 (that's not my final time speed figure which isn't that high - and rarely is). So the 33/1 taken by the original posters is probably well worth the risk and could turn into a sound investment, even if it only serves as a means to a trade.

There is a maximum speed that horses can run at and of course it is lower when carrying NH weights than carrying flat weights.That maximum speed, when you know it and adjusted for course and going means that going allowances have a ceiling. There is no difference between Flat & NH in terms of the value of finishing splits. If anything, they are of far more user ove jumps because fewer horses manage to demonstrate a turn of foot.As for "slowing down" the value lies in comparing the final 2f time with the average for the previous furlongs.

As for "slowing down" the value lies in comparing the final 2f time with the average for the previous furlongs.

Thanks.  So do you add a weighting to that final 2 furlongs/hurdles depending on the average speed per furlong of the race?

Also, do you  make any allowance for horses who win on the bridle?

steeplechasing

I use a rather complicated algorithm which does contain average race speed as one element. Horses that win on the bridle I prefer to take at face value but I do adjust for horses which have been slowed to a near walk.

Wish I could do something like that Sandown. That mathematical stuff takes me back to my school days and all I can remember is pie which was 3. something recurring.

3.1415926535 8979323846 2643383279 5028841971 6939937510
5820974944 5923078164 0628620899 8628034825 3421170679 8214808651 3282306647 0938446095 5058223172 5359408128 4811174502 8410270193 8521105559 6446229489 5493038196 4428810975 6659334461 2847564823 3786783165 2712019091 4564856692 3460348610 4543266482 1339360726 0249141273 7245870066 0631558817 4881520920 9628292540 9171536436 7892590360 0113305305 4882046652 1384146951 9415116094 3305727036 5759591953 0921861173 8193261179 3105118548 0744623799 6274956735 1885752724 8912279381 8301194912 9833673362 4406566430 8602139494 6395224737 1907021798 6094370277 0539217176 2931767523 8467481846 7669405132 etc etc
to be precise.

Nice on pmt. How's Leslingtaylor these days? You keeping well?

yes thanks very well. leslingtaylor is in great form. Just waiting for the right race for him. maybe the Elite at Wincanton maybe the Greatwood.

just the 600 decimal places pmt? shame on you

sorry fft i was thinking of your boredom threshold.

I was very impressed visually with this effort and think that 33's wouldnt be the worst bet in the world. I do, however, have a slight reservation. Is it me looking for flaws or is this horse flashing his tail everytime the whip is raised on the run in. I wouldnt have a problem with that ordinarily if the horse wins every race as comfortably as that but in the heat of the champion hurdle would he curl up under pressure? Maybe its his age and its a trait he will loose in time which may lend some credence to the whole 5yo argument.

bet .. won't need to see the whip. How many one here are on?

Any handicapper rating this hoss 160+ should retire and take up knitting.

Anybody know when this little beauty is out again?

.

HELLO IS THERE ANYBODY THERE?????????????? Over rated tarr...

You might well be right scoop; he won't be winning a Champion Hurdle I'm afraid.  Apart from him possibly not being good enough, he won't get his ground.  He was never going with any fluency today on that ground and his hurdling, a highlight of his Cheltenham victory, was appalling.

I still would not rule him out of picking up a big race on fast ground, though what his trainer will now do, given his mark, Lord knows.

Anyway, it gives me little pleasure to paste this quote from my earlier post:

Ahh, who knows scoop6.  Timeform always assess on the conservative side which I think is very wise until more evidence is available.  Their altered assessment of the ground devalues the time aspect of the performance imo.  My own thoughts were that the BHA might put him up as much as 25lbs so even I was surprised at the new rating.

My key concern, as mentioned earlier, is the ground, and the fact that Timeform classed it as fast ground deepens that concern. I'd like to see him reproduce close to that run on a slower surface before making any further judgement.  Wherever he goes next(surely Haydock against his peers?), he's most unlikely to get Saturday's ground again, so we could find out pretty soon

I've not lost faith although it looks like I've done a good bit of ante post dosh. Looked like trying to jump out of a bog yesterday.

To be fair to connections, they had stated exactly what the horse's needs are, and yes lolo, the ground was dire yesterday.

Will look forward to seeing him again on fast ground, but even then I think he will struggle in a handicap of the current BHA figure.

Handicapper must be feeling stupid now, and rightly so!

Anyone prepared to give Clerks Choice another chance on Saturday?  Ground could be quick given recent temperatures and this appears to be key to the horse.

The market has this as a 3 horse race but Menorah had a hard race lto and SC has not yet proved he acts at the track like the other 3 have (although there is nothing to suggest he won't).

12/1 ew is a decent price and I feel he is being somewhat overlooked.

The handicapper lost the plot in my view!

marv

I would suggest you wait and see what the times are like tomorrow before getting stuck in. If its anything like my back garden it will be firm to frozen.

What I have noticed is that winter good ground isn't anywhere near as fast as that description in autumn.

Thanks for the tip Sawyer, may well be dead ground if the covers have been on.

Too late regards the getting stuck in though........have had a small ew treble on Clerks Choice, Great Endeavor and Gauvain antepost!

God knows what the ground will be like, despite calling it Good(good to soft in places) the stick reading is higher than when he won at the October meeting!!!

DAS,handicapper has no need to feel stupid - as mentioned earlier in the thread by one or two people, ground looked to be the key to the horse.

At least he proved his run in that horrible suet pudding that was Haydock all wrong (Tellwright strikes again).  The horse is particularly unfortunate in that he's thoroughly exposed, below top class, and needs proper fast ground which everyone tries to avoid providing these days.

I think the jock was caught between a rock and a hard place today with the horse travelling so well off a reasonably moderate pace (in the main group). He'd fear missing the break on the sprint for home, I suppose.

It's a real shame for Mr Banks having the horse of a lifetime which he will probably struggle to win with.  How frustrating must that be?

He has already won a 50k race with it so he hasn't done too bad! He'll have options in the spring, no harder to place than the likes of starluck, zaynar, celestial halo...

Indeed,DH, though the handlers of those three ain't permit trainers!