Horse Antepost
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16 Oct 10
17:29
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12 Jul 07
What was that like compared to last year and where does that put the horse (speed wise) regards the big one in March?
Figgis (if I remember he is the BF guru) and others please.
Many thanks.
Figgis (if I remember he is the BF guru) and others please.
Many thanks.
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Replies: 114
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Sorry, liberator, I don't do jumps ratings. Maybe Sandown or Pedrobob can help you?
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peddlers cross will go for CH and beat anything that goes against him.
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manyana .. is that your own opinion or from elsewhere please. I like to have 20 or 30 quid on something every week for the Champion Hurdle, Queen Mum and Gold Cup and cannot decide what to do in the Hurdle.
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sorry don't do jumps ratings either.
But if you compare to the time of the well-run bumper, and rate that winner 110 (very conservative), adjust for 9.5 secs quicker time and 8 flights of hurdles, then Clerks Choice rates 160+. If you assume 2nd and 3rd run their races, that figure not wrong judging on their official marks and the beating given to them by Clerk's Choice Jonathan Neesom also said must be 160+ level now, he's as good a judge as any. |
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A copy of my post form Cheltenham 2011 forum:
Connections say the Greatwood next month is a possibility or that he might take the 'Starluck route' via the 4-y-o hurdle at Haydock next month. They say he will not run on proper soft ground, which would make you wary of a Champion Hurdle bet (33s with Hills). Having said that, he's from a small yard where one like him rarely comes along, so if his progress continues you could see him turn out in the big one whatever the ground. I'm often as wary of horses winning off a very fast pace as those scooting in off a slow one, but his hurdling was most accomplished for one of his experience, and he won under hands and heels. He took a bump on take-off at the 2nd which didn't faze him. He slightly fluffed three out at what would have been a critical point for many, but he was travelling so well - as he had done throughout - that it didn't trouble him. Also, he not only has tactical pace and jumping skill, but looks most amenable, happy to be reined back as Molloy took a pull turning in, and immediately responsive when the jockey asked him to quicken (excellent ride, I thought). Almost certainly no flash in the pan given his progressive profile, seems to love Cheltenham, great traveller whose hurdling can only get even sharper, he makes a lot of value appeal for the Champion at 33s given that he'd be a third of the price if stabled in a top yard. The new season is already brewing some potent mixtures. |
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Almost certainly no flash in the pan given his progressive profile, seems to love Cheltenham, great traveller whose hurdling can only get even sharper, he makes a lot of value appeal for the Champion at 33s given that he'd be a third of the price if stabled in a top yard.
I take it your were joking. 33s is one hundred miles away from being value. |
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Well, I have asked Betfair to add him to the CH market Celtic Son, what price will you be putting up?
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Very gratifying response and thank - you. Visibly I thought that looked lovely. Usually think that about a couple this time of the year get carried away and do my dosh though.
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guys i do speed figures for the jumps and this horse has undoubtedly put itself in the picture. to get in the frame champ hdl you would have to run 165ish max clerks choice ran to a conservative mark of 163+ good ground does seem important but according to my times,i record time from orange marker to finish line he has broke course record dont know official time but certainly faster than any race over 2m at chelt in last 3 yrs any fancy prices would look good in your portfolio?
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Isn't the horse still technically a novice and so eligible for the supreme? didn't win over hurdles until 19 April this year?
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mentioned today he isnt novice since he ran a week before cut off or some like
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not 100% though
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cut off date is normally 26th-28th April, so they only have novice status until 31st Oct
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taken some 33-1 for the champion
on that performance yesterday if the horse was trained by nicholls the horse would be 16-1 top for the champion very impressive |
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He even finished in front of Forte Dei Marni
 on the flat at Sandown  |
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Looking at times in a more depth, it turns out that of the last five Champion Hurdles run on good ground, only Istabraq bettered the time Clerk's Choice put up yesterday.
I have used Timeform's going descriptions as I do not trust the 'official' descriptions offered at the Festival. In 1998 Istabraq won in 3.49.10: a year later he clocked 3.49.01. Yesterday, Clerk's Choice sauntered home by 21 lengths under little more than hands and heels in 3.49.25 Early pace would have, of course, contributed yesterday, but Rooster Booster's good ground time in what is described in the RP as a race where Intersky Falcon set 'a furious pace', was more than 5 seconds slower than Clerk's Choice. Bear in mind too that Istabraq was 6 when he won his first Champion. Clerk's Choice almost equalled that time at four-years-old, not fully pushed out. |
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Winning Time: 3m 51.3s
Pos. Draw Dist. Horse Wt Jockey Trainer AGE SP 1 Starluck (IRE) 10-12 T J Murphy A Fleming 4 5/6 f held up in last, closed going well when not fluent 3 out, went 2nd after 2 out, went left and led on bit last, cruised away flat, impressive opened 5/6 touched http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Racing/0,27770,339778_3,00.html Imagine if he would of asked for the same effort on Starluck as he did on Clerks Choice from 2 out to ...  |
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Im not knocking his fanastic performance yesterday, but when comparing times you need to take into account that he was carrying 10-12 & not 11-10 like previous Champion Hurdles.
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Fair point bigben.
scoop6winner, Starluck's run was on good to firm |
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Where they on the same course as the horses times you're comparing them with ?
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Istabraqs Champion Hurdles ...
2000, 12st 3m.48s.1 good ... Quickened clear impressive...[:D] 99, 12st 3m.56s.7 good to soft soft in places... ridden out...[;)] 98, 12st 3m.49s.1 good to soft...very easily...  Hardly a fair comparison clerks choice 133 rated horse, to the greatest champion hurdler of all time.. carrying 12st.. |
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Where they on the same course as the horses times you're comparing them with ?
Yes, I'm reasonably sure there have been no changes since Istabraq's day. |
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Saturday October 17 2009
Race Result Cheltenham 14:05 - Result Sportingbet.com Hurdle £50000 added, 4yo only, 2m 110y, Class 2, £31310 penalty, 5 ran Going: Good to Firm, Good in places Winning Time Winning Time: 3m 51.3s Pos. Draw Dist. Horse Wt Jockey Trainer Age SP 1 Starluck (IRE) 10-12 T J Murphy A Fleming 4 5/6 f Saturday October 16 2010 Race Result Cheltenham 15:15 - Result Sportingbet.com Hurdle £50000 added, 4yo only, 2m 110y, Class 2, £31310 penalty, 8 ran Going: Good, Good to Firm in places Winning Time Winning Time: 3m 49.25s Pos. Dr. Dist. Horse Wt Jockey Trainer Age SP 1 Clerk's Choice (IRE) 10-12 T Molloy M Banks 4 14/1 I think thats what you could call spliting hairs RE: going |
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scoop6winner, on the evidence you cite, it would indeed by unnecessary hair-splitting on my part, but I did say in my original post that I was using Timeform's going assessment and for Starluck's race they judged it good to firm and for CC's yesterday, good.
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"Yes, I'm reasonably sure there have been no changes since Istabraq's day. "
There's a old and new course, i was just wondering if both times compared where on the same track. One has a longer run in. |
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Only 1, 5 year old in the last 25 years has won the Champion hurdle KATCHIT in 08, and 73 five-year-olds had been beaten in the race since See You Then registered the last five-year-old success in 1985
The others who were 5 year olds SEE YOU THEN in 85 (again in 86,87) NIGHT NURSE in 76 (again in 77) PERSIAN WAR in 68 (again in 69,70) As you can see the horse will have to defy alot of stats as well as follow some of the greats. The Main stat that puts a nail in his coffin for me is 5year olds dont win the race if they are trained by small stables...NEVER , hes a million for me for next years champion. 33/1 is not value. Just something to think about lads, B4 you invest your hard earned... |
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Both old course
My first thought after yesterday was that connections had blown a terrific mark, also thought Barizan ran terribly after being taken on early. 33/1 a fair price for ch hurdle, no more no less |
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scoop6winner, age stats are almost meaningless imo. 73 5-y-olds might well have been beaten during that period but how many 6, 7 , 8 and 9-y-olds were also beaten and what correlation is there with price/chance on form?
I suspect a very high percentage of the 5-y-olds beaten had little chance on form and were probably big prices. Also, to say 5-y-olds NEVER win a CH from a small yard - that's nonsense: Colin Davies who trained Persian War was a small trainer and before Persian War a number of smallish trainers won the race with 5-y-olds. Anyway, the skill involved in training racehorses is much over-rated: you get to know the animal's quirks then get him/her fit. An over-simplification perhaps, but too many people believe 'top' trainers have some sort of mystical powers. They don't. |
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Katchit ,when it won the CH was rated 159 (circa 160+ required for a champion), as a 4 year old he was rated 144 when he won the Triumph Hurdle in March,
As a 4 year old now Clerks Choice is rated 131 in October(13lb less but 7 months further down the line). He will have to improve 2 stone in the next 6 months to even think competing in the race... More food for thought... |
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so colin davis 42 years ago trained the last 5 year old winner from a small stable thanks for putting me right.how times change.
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Erm, it was you who brought Persian War into it, alongside the word NEVER . . . you seem pretty determined to have the last word and I'm happy for you to do so.
I posted here in response to the original author. I am not saying CC will win the CH, only pointing out that, in my view, 33/1 against him doing so seems very good value. Good luck. |
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Steeple, i am only adding the facts and figures as i go along, Persian war was a 5 year old, that is the only age stat i was interested in, it could of been called anything just happened to be one of the greats as NN and SYT. you was the one going on about older horses... if those stats/figures were put down in front of me, 33/1 is not value its not even fair...
As somebody on the right side of 50, i do not tend to look much further back than the size of trainer circa 1960s as i would find that completely irrelevant and the use of the word NEVER was wrong, and for you putting me straight on the matter,like i said i am grateful... .If CC wins the champion you have every right to bring this back up and say i told you so. Good luck |
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Greatwood next, or has the mark been blown as perp suggests?
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the obvious next race for him is the £40,000 added 4yo hurdle at haydock on 20th november. He gets a 4lb penalty for his Cheltenham win but still gets 4lbs from Barizan.Its his last opportunity to run against only 4 year olds.
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Thats Another one of the trainers concerns, that he has only got 4 races he can go for b4 christmas, and has effectively blown his mark...
I made a comparison to starluck as it was in the same race last year. and as flat horses starluck was rated 92...CC 85. I also found that Barizans novice race last year quite interesting on the same going as CC (Going stick 8.1)Although the race was 5.5 seconds slower, he carried 8lb more as a 3year old, Friday October 16 2009 Race Result Cheltenham 16:40 - Result Lemington Juvenile Novices' Hurdle £9000 added, 3yo only, 2m 110y, Class 3, £6262 penalty, 4 ran Going: Good to Firm, Good in places Watch Full Race» Watch Closing Stages» Winning Time Winning Time: 3m 54.7s Pos. Draw Dist. Horse Wt Jockey Trainer Age SP 1 Barizan (IRE) 11-6 A P McCoy Evan Williams 3 1/4 f |
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Don't know if there was any rain at Chelt overnight, but Clerk's Choice ran 4.1 secs quicker than the 128 rated Astracad in the last race on Friday, carrying 8lbs less.
So assuming no rain overnight, and also assume Astracad ran to his mark, then can compute Clerk's ran to 136.... and for every 1lb think Astracad ran above mark, can add that to Clerk's. Raceform had the same going correction both days, but thought there was plenty of rain around on Friday night? Anyone know if there was in Cheltenham? |
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Very interesting boys.
Pedro - no there was no rain to change the ground, quite the opposite, with the times of two of the races on Sat (CC on the 2m chase) suggesting it had got a bit quicker. In my view, final times in NH races only assist in assessing the going adjustment for that day and I have found that looking at split times on the same day (or next day) is a good form of comparison. Also the way races are run over jumps has a massive influence in the final time. What I do is look at the split times (from hurdle to hurdle) of different horses in races run over the same distance at the same meeting. So this weekend at Chelt gave three races all run the same way, with a front runner (used Lucaindubai in the last on Friday) and a hold up horse winning. Because the clock starts when the tapes go up (and at the weekend the 2m hurdle races were all started with the runners well off the official start) I look at the times from the first hurdle to the winning post. So in the three races I have matched Barizan with Fiulin and Lucaindubai and the three winners of the races with each other. In addition I have adjusted the split times to take account of what I consider to be slightly faster ground on Saturday. Firstly what I was surprised with is that the 122 rated Lucaindubai would have finished in front of Barizan, although Barizan carried more weight - if you include Fahy's claim there isn't much between them on the time it took them to get from hurdle no.1 to the finish. The winners of these two races, Astracad and Clerks Choice are apart by 15 lengths (in favour of CC), with a weight allowance of 8lbs (taken STD 3lb as he is probably worth it) gives CC the edge by a "rating" of 7. I would also add 3 "ratings" onto CC as his final split, last to winning post, was 3 lengths faster than Astracad. This last bit of the puzzle is quite surprising considering the fact that although CC hadn't apparently been involved in the pace set by Barizan, he was 15 lengths clear of Astracad at the third hurdle. So putting all that together, if we give CC 160, then Astracad gets 150?? If we give Barizan 140, then Lucaindubai gets about the same?? I notice that the RP give CC 155 and Astracad 140 (and I agree with this latter figure making the Friday handicap very formative) but only therefore rates CC at 150. Only future runs will throw light on the real value of CC's race, but I would rather be looking to back the first three home on Friday evening in a handicap (providing Phil Smith isn't reading this). |
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good read Sawyer, was wondering how to rate Astracad
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pedro
sorry got carried away with those two races that i forgot to say that in the other race it produces figs of 130 for King of the night and 120 for Fiulin although i imagine the "official" ratings will be higher |