Calling Figgis - Dewhurst time ratings

Evening Kev.
It's not a betting race for me. On figures I have Dream Ahead 3lbs in front of Frankel so I suppose he could be seen as value. There have to be doubts about him though. Will he be as effective over the extra furlong? He proved he goes on good ground in France, where he again clocked a decent time, however, it was an improved show at Newmarket, was that just progression or on account of the softer ground? Just as important, will he have recovered from that huge effort in the Middle Park?

Even though I have Frankel behind strictly on ratings, we know the trip is no problem and with the manner of his victories you have to think he's probably capable of running a bit faster. Gun to my head, he'd be my pick but I couldn't have him at the price.

As for Saamidd, he's actually bottom of the whole field on my ratings, but that's due to the lack of pace in his last race, rather than his lack of speed. He ran a good time at Newbury for a debut run. The top 2 look outstanding, so while it's not impossible it'll be quite surprising if in Saamidd we have another 2yo in the same season up to that level. I think the top 2 will have to under perform for him to have a chance.

Thanks mate - appreciated.

I wonder if the old Mordin-****as-"nice sort" principle applies to the Dewhurst and if any of these have been called out as good looking beasts in is it Timeform or Raceform?

Should be a good race and a true winner so long as we get some pace.

Hoper you don't mind me adding my two pennyworth:

93 Frankel (Donny)
86 Dream Ahead (HQ - no speed fig for Morny)
85 Glor Na Mara
81 Waiter's Dream
71 Saamidd
?? Roderic O Connor

On the clock I didn't think Dream Ahead's Middle Park win was anything special. but he did race on a slightly different part of the track to Hooray and the rain might have got into the ground. Could well be value for a few more pounds.
Frankel recorded a huge figure for a 7f race at Donny, but he did it the easy way, completely unpressurised, and it will be interesting to see if he can replicate it under pressure.
I suppose you'd have to say that purely on my figures Glor Na Mara is technically great value, but I don't think he'll be winning it, and I certainly hope not.
I would have to believe that Saamidd is capable of running a decent figure, and if I had to guess at what he might be capable of I'd say 88+.

I think Saamidd will finish in front of Waiter's Dream, so it will be a question of how well Frankel fares over 7f against proper speed horses. Love to see him win well.

I remember years ago reading him say that he'd noticed nice sorts were generally big horses, so I'd guess that should apply to Frankel, from what I've seen of him on tv pics he already looks a 3yo.

Kevbetting superstar Joined: 02 Sep 01
Replies: 1036 15 Oct 10 19:53   


Sir - would you care to share your overall view on the Dewhurst for me pls.  Picked up snippets from different threads and keen as always to hear how you see it.

For me DA is a sprinter; Frankel is overrated (to date) and Saamidd a lovely colt who picked up some good 6f horses effortlessly and so gets my vote so far. 


and you slag me off- deary me

Looking at my ratings before the race, I had the relationship between Waiter's Dream and Frankel right. I think it's likely that WD ran to form, which means Frankel reproduced his Doncaster run on the clock. Amazing how visually different the same time performance can look. Frankel's figure is the same as Canford Cliffs recorded in the Guineas this year. Interesting to see how much Frankel improves. There is scope for an unexposed colt to beat him at Newmarket but by far the likeliest result is a Frankel win.

Interesting to see how much Frankel improves.


Judging by your figures he's finished improving

MP - you pr1ck.  Only you could continue to draw attention to the the fact that you have £2 on every horse in every race.

You could damage Betfairs stock market flotation......regulars are supposed to be insightful not pr1cks.

perhaps kev's obsession with pricks stems from his desire to hold one in his hand?

ttt.

Kevbetting superstar Joined: 02 Sep 01
Replies: 1048 29 Sep 10 17:26   


Sorry to hear that.  Rob the kiddies piggy bank and lump on bekhabad.

^

as a wild guess was that because mordin tipped it up you silly little sheep

let's get the sheep back up there where he belongs.

get back up there.