Breeders Cup bets and thoughts

Anyone been to the breeders cup or kentucky derby?
Was thinking of going next year with  a trip to Vegas.Was wondering about transport to course/were to stay/best value tickets/and how easy is it to get to vegas.
Been to vegas a few times so im ok with that part of the trip

TJ have you had a chance to look at the Marathon yet?

been going through the yank contenders and i gotta say i not that keen

really tempted by the 20s Precision Break

rated nigh enough the same as both Muhannak and MOI were before their triumphs

loves the aw surface and tracks

dirt bred but still this wud be me only worry how he takes to the surface

P Cole not had a BC runner since 99 (courteous in the turf) and seems to fancy it

thoughts?

Not looked yet tbh. Marathon, the 3 Sprints and both Juv Turf races I haven't really gotten round to.
They all seem like hard work!

Seen this Peruvian horse going for the Juvenile... Murjan.

Won the Peruvian 2000 Guineas
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6jecA5HyCTs

Doesn't look like they went a great pace and the horse in front just stopped but he must be decent to be beating 3 year olds in a classic!

Tav

two more i think could be value and will be having a punt on

Allure Damour - juv filly turf

Secret Gypsy - f+m sprint

both around 20s and with good looking records

will check out your peruvian wonderhorse later

GL

loved the footage of murjan, like a 70's porno!

cant see any angle that we could attack the layers with this one

uncle mo looks strong fav to me

i wont be punting this peruvian hound to beat it

GL

lol no me neither. Would have been interesting at a nice price if the front 2 didn't look so good though.

More of an interest story than a betting proposition!


Champagne dOro first to interest me in the F&M Sprint. Still need to look at a lot of them still though.

Rain forecast for Louisville on Thursday and Friday.

what is ground currently?

what site you get this info off?

I've only been keeping an eye on the BBC 5 day forecasts for the last couple of weeks. Its been fine there for the last couple of weeks, early 20's temps etc and I don't think they've had any rain at all so the ground there should be fast at the moment.

BBC weather is showing light rain and 6-10 degrees temps forecast for Thur and Friday.

Might be worth checking other places I suppose.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/450

Actually there was racing in Churchill Downs yesterday and both tracks were Fast/Firm.

cheers Tav

excitement Building!!

cheers for the Updates Tav.

Dangerous Midge to saunter in on FAST or FIRM

Excitement really starting to build alright!
Think the post draws are tomorrow at 1-2.30 Eastern time which I'm pretty sure makes it 5pm our time (American clocks don't change until Saturday).

Where I stand:
Gotta go away on a stag on Friday/Saturday so trying to make most of my plays antepost to avoid the dreaded drunk betting!


Classic: Quality Road 1pt 8/1
Lookin at Lucky 1pt at nearly 5/1

Turf: Behkabad 1 pt 4/1

Mile: Sidneys Candy 1 pt 12/1

F&M Turf: Red Desire .5 pt 8/1 e/w 1/4 123

Ladies Classic: Life at Ten .5 pt 6/1

Dirt Mile: Here Comes Ben 1 pt 13/2

Juv Fillies: Tell A Kelly .5pt 10/1

Turf Sprint: Rose Catherine .5 pt 10/1

F&M Sprint: Champagne dOro .5pt 8/1

Juv and Fill Juv Turf: Uncle Mo/Winter Memories double 1 pt at about 9.5/1


Load of other I want to back but probably best to wait for the draws.
Jaycito in particular could cause the upset in the Juvenile, and beginning to think that maybe Quality Road might be the one in the Classic. Will definitely be laying Zenyatta too, need to decide if I can get 3 to beat her though.

Also considering Plumania e/w in the F&M Turf, throw out the Arc and 10/1 is massive.
Marathon is a horrible race with the dirt and lack of form at the trip, think I'll just guess that one!

Gio ponti goes for the mile now

Henry Cecil has been complaining about firmness of the ground, he reckons some turf horses will be forced to pull out unless they increase the watering.

mile looks ultra strong heat now that gio goes

GL

Tony Calvin says they have had no measurable rain for 2 months. But says they may pit 100,000 gallons on or someting ... politially motvated

WF is a doubt.

Hmmm why fly a horse all the way over there to then casts doubts over the ground. It doesn't make sense unless they want to try and put more pressure on those who water the track ?

COC saying he wont change regime of adding 10mins of water per evening.

WORKFORCE, the red-hot favourite for Saturday's Breeders' Cup Turf, remains deeply uncertain for the end-of-season showpiece following his first encounter with the Churchill Downs grass on Tuesday morning.

The Investec Derby and Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe hero completed a lap of the 7f oval under big-race jockey Ryan Moore accompanied by Juvenile Turf-bound stablemate Dux Scholar.

Workforce was watched by trainer Sir Michael Stoute's assistant, Stuart Messenger, who expressed serious worries about the ground conditions, described officially as firm.

Speaking after the workout, Messenger said: "I'm extremely disappointed with the ground, I'm going to have a serious discussion with the boss. The horse is too valuable to risk."

Moore added: "The horse is fine and in good shape. The ground is quicker than ideal. We'll see how things progress through the week."

Churchill Downs' track superintendent, Butch Lehr, said on Monday that he was content with the going on the turf track and would not change his current regime of ten minutes watering every evening.

That is the only significant water the course has seen in months, with Lehr describing the lack of rain since early summer as a "freak deal".

Hibaayeb has been clipped - 16s from 20s

very much reliant on fast ground

would be clear second best if running up to ribblesdale form, value?


cant see Butch pouring water on to make life easier for the euro's

he would get strung up by the home team!!

Post draw on live now

http://www.breederscup360.com/2010-breeders-cup-draw/

Goldikova drawn out wide again unfortunately.

Interesting that Ryan Moore was read out as the jockey for Paco Boy, hadn't heard that Hughes had made the decision no to go.

Just confirmed Travis. Def not going.

Also interesting that Dux Scholar not in the final field for the Juv Turf.
If I'd backed Workforce I'd be very worried.

Racing Post have BC fields up and which horses are running on lasix, none of O'Brien's (according to them) are racing on lasix, is this correct?

Really Lumberg?
Gary O'Brien said after his interview with APOB that they were all going to be on lasix!?

Workforce drawn six of eight

Just looked on the RP website for the Mile and it doesn't mention Paco Boy running on Lasix.

Gio Ponti: Lasix; first preference Classic Court Vision: Lasix Get Stormy: Lasix Proviso: Lasix Sidney´s Candy: Lasix Society´s Chairman: Lasix The Usual Q. T.: Lasix

Richard Hannon Jnr was on the Morning Line last week saying he was and working well on it at home???

On the Breeders Cup preview on ATR, I can't remember who it was but he said that whispers were that all the Ballydoyle horses would be running on lasix this year.

Is it NRNB with rule 4's with every bookie now?

Would like to top up on Behkabad at 3's, not interested though if theres a significant rule 4 were Workforce not to run.

please piss down over churchill downs tonight!!!

TJ, only looked at 365 and Lads and both NRNB and Rule 4 may apply

Looked at a few too, Blue Sq seems to be the only one where nothing is mentioned.

These are the final decs so r4 will deffo apply

Paco Boy and Goldikova both been declared to run on Lasix as have all APOB's horses.

Only 8 runners in the Turf ? Blimey that has cut up a fair bit.

Korrall bounced WF out from Evens to 6/4.

Does anyone know much about lasiz?

They say that first time is where you get the big advantage and that often happens 2nd time too. So does that mean that Paco Boy would have a clear advantage over Goldikova given that it'll be his first time and her 3rd? Or do they get that first time buzz again having not used it for a year?

I see Workforce is declared to run on it and Behkabad isn't.

No idea tbg, Tav. I was under the impression the first time use had a positive affect.

Dangerous Midge is declared to run with Blinkers for the first time .. not sure what to make of that.

Potentially not much pace on and blinkers may just keep him sharp enough to make the most of that by racing prominently and kicking early. Looking forward to him running now

I thought this was Goldi's second time on it? As far as I know it's an anti bleeding drug that basically ensures the horse breaths easier and can run right to the line, would say it improves most horses every time they use it, not sure it's a buzz drug?

I'll see if there is any in the Kitchen and report back after ive had a jog

Have settled with the below, im not too considered with the draw as i make it if the jockey is good and the horse is class then it doesnt matter from where it comes, Quality Road, Here Comes Ben and Goldikova are the 3 bets of the evening for me.
I will not hear of defeat.

let it begin :)

lol

That is kind of what I was wondering Ben. Does it improve every horse every time, if so why the big deal about 1st time lasix?

Is Betfair now NRNB?

Richard Hannon jnr also said on The Morning Line that Lasix works a bit like a diuretic and the horse can lose additional weight.

I know he ran a poor race at Newmarket the other day (although I can forgive him a bit as the race developed on the stands side and he was drawn much wider), but no-one talking about Delegator in the Mile. A turning track to allay stamina doubts and on Lasix too, the 20's available seem a big price to me

I think the big deal about first time is that they can do something they haven't done before, all horses bleed to an extent as far as I know and this drug keeps their airways clearer which is very important towards the end of a race when they need to take in as much air as possible to prevent anaerobic respiration (and therefore cramping).

Yes MM day of race markets are up.

That seems logical ben, thanks.

thanks tav

Yes Ben you are correct - Goldi didnt use it (lasix) at SA in 2008 but did last year at SA - as for the draw I dont know what all the fuss is about - Goldi can win from up with the pace (2008) or do a Zenyatta and run them all down as she did last year - she is a bank job - Sidney should lead from the start but I can see goldi and paco charge him down - there you have your trifecta.

As for Zenyatta - come sat evening it's 20 for 20.......
Workforce is a place lay in my book! If he even turns up!
Winchester great value e/w - a certainty!

Just my opinions...........

Goldikova was 13/8 to beat G3 winner Delegator and G2 winner Zacinto last year.

She's 5/4 to beat 3* G1 winner Paco Boy, 6* G1 winner Gio Ponti, 4* g1 winner Proviso and G1 winner Sidney's Candy.

She's also drawn wide.

No doubt in my mind that she's the best horse in the field but a bank job at 5/4 she most certainly is not!

Delegator is an interesting shout by Arsene imo, he had a hard campaign last season and been lightly raced this time around. According to Dettori in his interview on ATR the horse also had bad feet this time last year. FWIW.

Bright Horizon in the marathon-Get On!

interesting the us jocks describing turf course as soft

Put up a few quid yesterday to place lay Zenyatta at 1.66 and I was  little surprised that it was taken so quickly so went back today with more at 1.5 which was also snapped up, maybe I could have been a bit meaner!

Need Charlton or someone to tell me what price she should be!

forecast for rain/snow showers tomorrow

its absolutely baltic by the look of the numbers

ground could have cut in it yet!

Noble's Promise is running over 6f and Jackson Bend (3rd in the Preakness) over 1m 1/16 in the 2 races before the Marathon tomorrow!

30% chance from what I can see

(of rain)

Interesting that the magic sign are going 6/1 on together.

Re Lasix: It is a diuretic- this is it's ONLY direct action. The effect of passing more urine, reduces blood volume, which in turn reduces blood pressure, which in turn reduces the risk of bleeding.
We use it in human cardiac patients for the above reasons. Humans (and I'd expect horses) do build a slight resistance to it, but after stopping for a couple of weeks get the same effect again when they re-start.

town moor Joined: 30 Nov 07
Replies: 250 04 Nov 10 20:08   


Re Lasix: It is a diuretic

And a masking agent, allegedly,

is it right that behkabad goes without lasix?

if so that has to disadvantage him, no?

The more I look at it, the more I think its Quality Road's to lose.

Last year, I lumped on a fortnight before at 16/1 and then the unthinkable happened......he refused to load! I was confident of his chances even on Santa Anita's synthetic but at the same time, was prepared to see him lose. But I never could have predicted what unfolded two minutes before Zenyatta annexed the field! It was hard to take. But this year is a chance for the the horse to redeem himself. And with it, a chance for us to back the winner we should have been collecting on a year ago. :)

Took on Zenyatta twelve months ago and going to do the same again. Its interesting and I haven't heard it mentioned too much, but no six year old has ever won the Classic. Then there's the montage of her nineteen wins on YouTube. Yes she's won from almost impossible positions so many times but look at her last three wins and she's just getting there! Just. And not a single Group One winner, past or present, did she beat in any of those three wins. And don't tell me its a case of her doing enough, she's so so lucky to be coming into this race still unbeaten and racing on an a fairly alien surface against seasoned rivals in a much stronger field than last year, well you just got to take her on. Fair play to Smith and Sheriffs if they get her to go 20 for 20.

And what about Luckin at Lucky? Who has be beaten? Looked at the Preakness and he won the race by default. Everything in a heap waiting for the line to come and fortunetely, LAL had his head in front at the right time. Its a big ask to go into the Classic and race against older rivals for the first time and win! Has it ever been done? Fair enough he won the Indiana Derby and that win was so easy on the eye but far far more on his plate this time around and he's another I'd have to take on.

Look as I say, its all about Pletcher, Johnny V and Quality Road. Forget this stuff about the distance, the two times he was beaten at it, he hated the sloppy tracks. Yes I'd prefer not to be taking a leap of faith but Pletcher is confident and his 9f wins indicate to me its no problem. And we all love a horse who'll run fast, if this race was over 6f, who'd win? A mile? What about the three track records Quality Road has already smashed? He is the fastest horse in the race by a long way.

Looking at the opposition, I fear his two adversaries, Blame and Haynesfield the most. Haynesfield probably more as Blame looked to peak in the Whitney and I think only the European raider in 1993 is the only horse to win having finished out of the placings on the most recent prior to Classic victory. Haynesfield, on the other hand, is similiar to Quality Road, front-runner who can go round fast! On the subject of which, I've heard it mentioned that QR will be inconvienced by having the likes of Haynesfield and Espoir City for company in the lead. But following a fast pace early on looks to suit him more! He can stalk and then let loose down the straight. Thats the way I'd like to see it unfold anyway. Let Haynesfield, Espoir City and anyone else off in front and stalk them.

Race to savour though and no matter what they outcome, lets hope its a performance to remember!

Doesn't last the 10f for me though mate and from stall 1, has a lot on.

Workforce walked by and not one photographer followed him or took interest....Zenyatta walks past and 60 of them follow her like Paris Hilton. Flippin yanks !

I agree to a point Viva, Quality Road definitely not to be underestimated. Wouldn't be so quick to write off Lucky though.

If they can both get decent breaks to take maybe 4th and 5th at the first turn we're in for a great race. All depends on the break though as I think it'll be very hard to come from off the pace in this race.

There are potentially 10 or 11 close to top class animals in the field and a lot of them won't be stopping.

Zenyatta and Blame (and Fly Down) have it all to do. I could easily envisage a scenario where Zenyatta has to come 6 or 7 wide at the final turn and has 5 or 6 lengths to make up with the leader and still has to pass Quality Road, Lucky, Espoir City, Haynesfield, Paddy O'Prado etc etc. Even the likes of Musket Man is a really good honest horse and could be running on.

These aren't Switch or Rinterval or St Trinians!

2/1 not to place or 2/1 to win.... hmmm

I've backed QR, Lucky, place layed Zenyatta and will be using probably 2 of Musket Man, Paddy and Espoir to fill out my trifectas.

Viva, i not sure if you being fair to zen saying she lucky to be coming here unbeaten.

she is 19/19 ffs,

trainer should take a lot of credit imo proper plan at the start of every campaign leading up to BC

i dont think there are 10/11 top class animals in here

i think this is no better a race than last year, whats happened is last years race is being played down simply because zen won from an impossible possy

im sure it will be a great race with the right result

GL if your playing (i havent made my mind up yet)

I'm not sure how you don't think this is a better race than last year andy.

You have winners of the Preakness, Woodward, Haskell, Jockey Club Gold Cup and Whitney, ie. all the major trials and all run on dirt, in the field.

Last year off the top of my head the only winner of one of the above races was Summer Bird who'd never run on the synthetics before.

i take your point tav,

however i dont think its as simple as you suggest because of the different surfaces

in terms of turf and synthetics ratings last years bunch were top quality

also the top dirt races have all been contested by much the same horses but something different wins each time, i.e. no real star just very good performers and i think there is a difference.

i dont have an earthly how i am gonna play the race come saturday

GL

Crown of thorns out of dirt mile

Good luck all.

And you Tav, been a good thread for the build up

not a good race, but my two are far better than the rest imo. so
zeyatta 6/5 should be set up for her .
3yos not so good either.
quality road, should get home , speed stamina is what's required 3/1.
cannot vote for anything else bar these two

had £30 e.w on Beethoven, just a feeling about it at the odds(run at Ascot may be underrated) , good luck with bets tonight

Goldi - what a fkn superstar!!!!

A truly brilliant mare, best I've seen.

Figgis - Goldi is a superstar but dosen't it just make you think how good Zarkava must have been - such a shame she was retired at 3.

No I'm absolutely sure that Goldikova improved after getting beaten by Zarkava, whether Zarkava would've improved can only be guessed at, connections obviously thought not.

Goldi's improved loads, Zarkava probably was retired because they felt she had developed as far as they could with her.

Well done Sint and others with Midge

Kudos to you aswell Ben. Dare I say I tucked into Blame aswell after Midge Won Think we discussed him on this thread also.

Goldikova is literally a machine. Best miler i've seen, even better than Cockney Rebel

And how good a jockey is Garret Gomez ?! Unreal Jockey.

Well another disappointing end to a BC for me!

Was that Quality Road's true running?

I've trouble believing it was. Its a pity. He has the capability  to run so so fast but I don't think he fired tonight. He was bet long before he stepped into the distance unknown so can't blame that, overcame his bad draw with considerable ease and looked relaxed and ready before start so can't blame either of those two factors. Maybe he isn't good enough after all? I don't know.

Stunning performance from Goldikova - toyed with the opposition.

Mik Smith on Zenyatta - dear oh dear. If you waste that much ground early on in the race you need to be sure you're on a Pegasus - amazing thing is that Zenyatta almost was.

Cheers sint

QR helped set the ridiculously strong pace Viva, they all took each other on for it and ultimately paid the price. Which is why Mike Smith was right to take a pull on Zenyatta, she was closed up enough approaching the final turn to make her move in good time and her style has always been conducive to potential bad luck, a big field would exacerbate that. If he'd had her more prominent she wouldn't have finished like a train.

Surely just a head more prominent wouldn't have blunted her finishing kick?

IMO Zenyatta used up too much gas making up ground in the back straight - she was in the correct position at the "top of the stretch" but due  to the effort in getting there did not have quite enough to get past Blame. Smith was right to hold her up - but not to have her detached with several lengths daylight between her and the field - I've never seen a big race won from that position.

Yeah but horses aren't cars, he was switching her off out back and she probably didn't realise what was going on and started to pull herself up, perhaps that was a mistake on his part but if he hadn't have tried slowing her down she would have got too wound up early in the race (was very moody beforehand) and as I said she wouldn't have finished in typical fashion. Looking at the pace, they went fast for the first 3 quarters of a mile then the pace dropped away, she caught them up at this moment and from there on in was on a level playing field. Traffic is part of racing and if she'd raced in bigger fields more often she wouldn't be undefeated for so long, nearly got beat on her previous start in California if you watch the race.

She's lost nothing in defeat from me. Great for the sport as well.

I laid her, ben, only to small stakes, but I have no doubts that I got lucky.

Figgis, as they say, that's racing. We've all been on the end of it before and we've all had it go for us, just part of the great game.

It certainly is, but I don't think the jockey should be excused, it was a dumb ride.

I couldn't believe what I was watching,tbh. It was a little bit surreal watching it Live.

The jockey said she took a while to get used to the dirt surface in the first part of the race, which is why she allowed to hang out the back like that.

Dancing Brave's Derby run has alwways been my best example of a race in which the best horse by far was beaten by lying too far out of ground. Now there is an even better example to use.

I don't believe for a second that a jockey can give a horse that much to her rival and for people to say there was nothing wrong with it because of her style. He misjudged it by lengths and given her finish she would have won if it wasn't for borderline arrogance.

I've never seen anything like it - thought she must have hurt herself in the stalls and expected her to pull up. Smith wasn't niggling at her at all - clearly lying way off the back was deliberate. Astonishing decision.

You and i seem to agree on a lot of these issues A-T...i just hope you've won more than i have recently

Well done Dangerous Midge backers especially (ye told us! we didn't believe!) but all other winners too.

Had a disaster :(
Not even gotten round to watching half of the races yet!
Uncle Mo just almost got me even but went and had stupid money on Lucky added to what ended up being a pretty large place lay of Zenyatta it wasn't a good race for me.

In the end was absolutely gutted Zenyatta didn't win, never believed in her because they always took the easy route but they could have won every decent race of the last 3 years with her, pity.

I was firmly in the Rachel camp last year for Horse of the Year, this year I think Zenyatta should get it, run that race 10 times and she wins 8 of them.

Goldikova was an absolute supersatar.