***MELBOURNE CUP 2010***

Shocking is a worthy fav, has looked top notch this term. I actually can't understand why the handicapper doesn't penalise him although top weight now, it deserves an extra kilo at least.
Can't see So You Think getting the trip but then again who knows but the horse as good as any European horse over 10f imo.
I'm dreaming of the big pay day with Mourayan. Brilliant 2yo, gave Sea The Stars a serious race, Fame and Glory was genuinely better got beat by Profound but I do recall Oxx having excuses that day but it's run in the Ledger that gives me reason it has every chance in this. Probably the worst ride ever in a Group 1, pocket talk I know, boy do I hate Berry but it's hard to argue it wouldn't have won that day if Berry hadn't decided to run into the back of every horse in front of it. So that over an extended 1m6f in its prefered ground is perfect form for this race. Its well in too will more then likely be in the bottom weight group.
Been at the usual Aussie craic of short distances this year but came alive in the Metropolitan over 1m4f and sending it to the front so early was not race winning tactics but great prepping. So the 150/1 dream is still a possibility!
I'm also on Profound at 30s, having lost a decent antepost bet on it last year at least I get a run for my money this time, don't think it was fully wound up for Irish Leger and it'd be great to see Dermot snatch the 150th Cup

I've also backed her at 30's on here

So You Think, Linton & Shoot Out are my main bets for this..I layed off most of my ante post bet on Profound Beauty at 26 is the beauty a 100% runner? I herd Welds comments a few weeks back in an interview and he didnt seem to keen..And after having already backed Rite Of Passage i bailed out the beauty..

Bauer for me

Getting the trip is a big question mark for me. 12/1 was short enough, but I really don't like 6/1.

Winners of WFA races can't be penalised for the Melbourne Cup after weights have come out.

He is the best horse currently in training anywhere in the world imo and the 56kgs against a field dropping away in depth has him a weight certainty.

If Bart starts him that is plenty evidence to me that the trip won't be an issue.

It will be a sit and sprint anyway and he will belt them

Horses who win WFA races at 2300m or less are not liable for a penalty for the Melbourne Cup but all handicap winners after the publication of the weights can be penalised . The Australian handicapper has more or less indicated that he will not go too hard on the Caulfield Cup winner for penalty purposes ( last year's winner Viewed only got a 1kg ( 2lbs ) penalty )- presumably so as to encourage horses to 'try' in the Caulfield Cup !

Deserved

I don't really consider drugged up yanks running on synthetic rubbish, and for the most part beating up on weak fields with only a half dozen runners, to be part of the real racing world Bobby S.

I reckon he would probably knock her off as well anyway.

Doesn't look like Eastern Aria will get a place. Shame. I dont get why Bauer hasn't made it? I thought there were 24 places. What am I misunderstanding?





International Horses Assured Of 2010 Melbourne Cup Run:

Campanologist (5th)
Profound Beauty (8th)
Mr Medici (9th)
Illustrious Blue (11th)
Tokai Trick (12th)
Americain (13th)
Manighar (20th )

International Entries In Danger Of Missing Out On 2010 Melbourne Cup Run:

Bauer (24th)
Holberg (30th)
Drunken Sailor (31st)
Eastern Aria (32nd)

Just had a look.

http://www.springracingcarnival.com.au/asset/cms/SRC%202010/2010%20Emirates%20Melbourne%20Cup%202nd%20Acceptors%20Elimination%20Order%20211010.pdf

Bauer is 26th, will be 24th once Sans Frontieres and Zabrasive are taken out.

So You Think will leapfrog, once he comes in the first three in the Cox Plate tomorrow.

Less sure about who else will leapfrog in the next couple of weeks.

For that to happen, I reckon Dato would have to pull Dariana and perhaps Faint Perfume, to get Precedence in, and then Lloyd Wiliams pull 2 of Mourayan, C'est la Guerre and Zipping to get Linton in, or sumfink!

SHOOT OUT
should love the rain & step up in trip

Three Melbourne Cup contenders to pass vet
By aap racing/caryl williamson 9:08AM 28 OCT 2010

Australia: Jostling for positions in the Melbourne Cup took on a new twist on Thursday with three contendersundergoing veterinary checks and another two needing to prove themselves before the final field is declared.

Dariana and Faint Perfume from the Bart Cummings stable were subjected to examination by Racing Victoria vets along with the John O'Shea-trained Jessicabeel.
Both the Cummings mares have been out of form this spring but are fully qualified for the Cup and expected to take their places in the field after being passed fit.

Last year's VRC Oaks winner Faint Perfume is scheduled to run in Saturday's Mackinnon Stakes while Dariana will not run again before Tuesday's Cup.
Jessicabeel showed signs of lameness when she straggled in more than 20 lengths from the winner Precedence in the Moonee Valley Cup.
She will take her place in Saturday's Lexus Stakes but will be vetted again after that race.
O'Shea has expressed his anger over the process, fearing Jessicabeel is being targeted.
As the winner of the Australian Stayers' Challenge comprising points throughout the season, the Sydney Cup winner cannot be balloted out of the Cup.

Connections of last year's fourth and fifth Cup placegetters, Master O'Reilly and Harris Tweed, are required to supply vet certificates by Friday after both have suffered bouts of colic in the past two weeks.

Over at the international compound at Werribee, things have been accident and illness-free.

The Dermot Weld-trained Profound Beauty, who finished fifth to the Cummings-trained Viewed in 2008, was put through her paces on Thursday under the watchful eye of the trainer's son Mark.
Dermot Weld is expected in Australia on Sunday but has been in constant contact with his team and although pleased with the reports, he told Melbourne radio Sport 927 the Australians held the aces.
"I think it's a very competitive race this year," he said. "I think you've got a very strong Australian team defending the Cup. I think it will be pretty tough for any of the international horses to win this year.
"You've seen Americain already win the Geelong Cup. But I still honestly believe the bookmakers have it right - the Australian horses are going to be hard to beat this year."

Last year's winner Shocking is the $4.50 favourite ahead of dual Cox Plate winner So You Think ($5.50) with Americain at $10.

http://www.smh.com.au/sport/horseracing/profound-beauty-bauer-woes-place-internationals-under-scrutiny-20101028-175t1.html

never tried posting a link before. Dont they work? Bit disappointed about this. At this rate it looks like I may have no betting interest at all in the race!!

smh.com.au/sport/horseracing/

profound-beauty-bauer-woes-place-internationals-under-scrutiny-20101028-175t1.html

from Racingandsports

Racing Victoria vets, under the supervision of stewards, will complete veterinary examinations, including inspections of treatment logbooks, of the top 35 ranked horses in the Emirates Melbourne Cup today ahead of final declarations for the $6m race at 5pm tomorrow.

The Bart Cummings-trained mares Dariana  and Faint Perfume  were examined first yesterday morning, along with Sydney Cup winner Jessicabeel .

The trio were passed fit for racing with Jessicabeel to be re-examined following her run in the Group 3 The Lexus Stakes at Flemington tomorrow.

The six horses residing in the Vintage Crop Stables at the Werribee International Horse Centre were examined earlier this morning with Profound Beauty , Campanologist , Illustrious Blue  and Eastern Aria  passed fit for racing.

2008 Melbourne Cup runner-up Bauer  will be re-examined this afternoon after he is re-shod.

Holberg  is being treated for a bruised hoof with trainer Saeed bin Suroor to decide tomorrow morning whether it has improved sufficiently to pay the final acceptance fee.

Holberg is currently 31st in the order of entry and thus not guaranteed a start

PB, my mistake

Would have been okay for last year, and previous ones, but not this year.

Mourayan is rated 115 here, and isn't quite in.

Drunken Sailor is 112, and is quite a few spots away from getting in.  This is the Handicappers fault, as Cumani was told the horse would be given 53kg.  The hose put in a couple of imptoved performances, and the horse still got the 53kg promised, rather than the extra kilo it maybe deserved.