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Red Cadeaux - Cesarewitch
Red Cadeaux - Cesarewitch
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Replies: 62
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agree roger. similar to the Chester Cup in that sense.
bone up, bone up |
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Anyone got a boner yet ?
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bazzar you clearly know fukk all...you should do your homework before you pi$$ take.
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Don't be bard on bazzar. Until a few years ago I would have been likely to doubt the sanity of someone worrying about the draw in a 18 furlong race - it makes no sense. However its the single turn at the 10 furlong pole that stuffs the ones drawn out wide. They lose so much ground. If you are drawn high and drop your horse out the back on the inside, you have too much to do. if you are on the outside on the bend you are well stuffed. The only hope is to ride like Pat Eddery did when he won the Ebor on Give The Slip. break very smartly from the outside and get to the front and cross over to the rail Then slow the pace down to make up for the extra early effort. Sound easy - its not. The draw for the this race is basicall more important than for the Chester Cup or for the Stewards cup come to that. Sounds crazy - but its true bazzaar honest.
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red cadeux stall 5, but only 32 runners
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where d'ya get that please koo?
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wetherbys
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cool
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Agree about the draw for this race done a study a few years back and found that those drawn between 17-23 were best drawn.
The reason is that these horses have the straightest route to the turn. It will be a huge effort for a horse to win from other stalls especially those drawn low. Have backed ocean's minstrel for the race a steering job ! |
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I think something like 75% of the winners of the race in the last decade or so were drawn hight than 23 - a huge trend that does seem to prove the point.
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Universal Truth must go off shorter than the 8's on offer here. Like to be up with the pace which will suit from 32 and i'm Sir Tom will bang home the point again. Red Cadeux backers can't be happy with 5.
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Still can't accept that the draw plays a part in the result, if the jockey is convinced that he is badly drawn, then HE/SHE MUST take
avoiding action, although this has nothing to do with Cesarewitch, Gitano Hernando was given a very poor ride in DUBAI WORLD CUP, totally sacrificing an excellent draw, in the belief that the leaders could be picked up and passed at ANY time, all of a sudden there is nowhere to go because of a wall of horses in front and around. As regards EDDERY he used to throw a good draw away regularly in sprints and paid the price for it on several occasions. Indeed it is endemic amongst jockeys to tootle along at the back and look like an unlucky loser, riders of YOUMZAIN, please note. |
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One of the worst judges of draw bias, gets it wrong FAR more times than right is McCririck, if he says that a draw is wrong then back your own judgement against his, I have backed many winners of the AYR GOLD CUP and totally ignored the draw on EVERY occasion.
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As regards the AYR GOLD CUP, the earliest winner I can remember backing was ROMAN WARRIOR drawn one I think and top weight, many years later I backed ABLE ALBERT drawn 26 I think, I also remember backing a horse called EGUALITA and I only bring this up because it may have been before ROMAN WARRIOR, although I don't think so, but I backed it to win at MANCHESTER and that course closed in 1963.
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King Revo had it won everywhere but the winning post a few years ago from stall one so low numbers shouldnt give up hope...still I find this one of the strangest draw bias stats around and hard to ignore.
Seems to be a race where horses who have previously run well in it will do so again so Dayia the main hope for me at the moment |
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CRY, we do agree wholeheartedly on your post in the Thatcher birthday thread.
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Al Eile placed from stall 1 a few years back I remember.
I've been going to Champions Day since the mid-90's and this draw bias has always been there for the Ces, other than one yer when they rounded the turn and came down the stands side for reasons best known to themselves. One of Mary Reveley's won it (Turnpole?) and I think that was a single figure draw. Other supposed draw biases are nothing of the sort. It's to do with pace rather than the draw, other than at obvious places like Chester, in most cases. |
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My Arch, 16.5 on here is enough for me to ignore ground worries.
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tend to agree with bidders itch, Oceans Minstrel for me .. trainer form a worry though
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Red Cadeaux driffy, had few quid win 16.5.
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come on red cad back into 10s, top 4 will do nicely, 1st and the champers is out
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Oceans Minstrel was bursting through at the finish
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So Trev W and Rojerthebutler, it appears that no less a person than Lanfranco Dettori read my piece on the draw for the CESAREWITCH and tested my theory with a win on Never Can Tell,
if you accept everything you are told you will believe that ALL politicians are serving the electorate. Mind you lots of people believe that there is a god. |