Horse Antepost
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
For anyone who still believes that the outcome of horseraces can be predicted in advance, this race proved that it is often how the race pans out that determines the result, and luck in-running is very hard to determine beforehand.
The race pace was fairly even to start - a good strong gallop but not out of the ordinary . From 1000m (5f) to 600m(3f) the pace quickened and as the 3f pole is at the beginning of a right turn the field was moving at this point. What happened between the 3 and 2f pole determeined the outcome. The field slowed significantly at this point and runners at the front couldn't go anywhere and the runners from behind made upo the ground on them so that the whole field concertined.
The chief sufferer at this point was Serafina, who went from being 1-2 lengths in front of Workforce to 3 lengths behind him, losing all momemtum, and being shoved wide.
As they entered the straight, the pace picked up again but there were no electifying tun of foots to come. Workforce had an incredibly clear run through given the problems that everyone else faced apart from the japanese Nak. Festa.
Behkabad never saw daylight until too late. Planteur didn't stay. Fame and Glory didn't have the toe and got hampered. Sarafina ran on to make up all bar 2.5 lengths and was the one who was most unlucky.
This Arc was not run in an exceptional time. I make Workforce running to 125 some way below his Derby rating. It was an exceptional training performance and an exceptional ride. Maybe Moore made his own luck. It was an exceptionally rough race. On another day, and with better luck, the **** horse might have won; so might Sarafina, so might Bekhabad. But take nothing away from Workforce. To my mind, and to open up the KG debate again, this was the horse that Stoute expected to win then and he in no way ran to form that day.
From a punting standpoint, I won on the race, not daring to leave Workforce uncovered, but I would have won more more if any of the next 4 home had prevailed, so only half a drink. Nevermind. Before the race I had Workforce putting up the best time performance on 135 and I expected Bekhabad and Sarafina to improve considerably. They didn't improve as much as I expected but that was down to the way the race was run.
The race pace was fairly even to start - a good strong gallop but not out of the ordinary . From 1000m (5f) to 600m(3f) the pace quickened and as the 3f pole is at the beginning of a right turn the field was moving at this point. What happened between the 3 and 2f pole determeined the outcome. The field slowed significantly at this point and runners at the front couldn't go anywhere and the runners from behind made upo the ground on them so that the whole field concertined.
The chief sufferer at this point was Serafina, who went from being 1-2 lengths in front of Workforce to 3 lengths behind him, losing all momemtum, and being shoved wide.
As they entered the straight, the pace picked up again but there were no electifying tun of foots to come. Workforce had an incredibly clear run through given the problems that everyone else faced apart from the japanese Nak. Festa.
Behkabad never saw daylight until too late. Planteur didn't stay. Fame and Glory didn't have the toe and got hampered. Sarafina ran on to make up all bar 2.5 lengths and was the one who was most unlucky.
This Arc was not run in an exceptional time. I make Workforce running to 125 some way below his Derby rating. It was an exceptional training performance and an exceptional ride. Maybe Moore made his own luck. It was an exceptionally rough race. On another day, and with better luck, the **** horse might have won; so might Sarafina, so might Bekhabad. But take nothing away from Workforce. To my mind, and to open up the KG debate again, this was the horse that Stoute expected to win then and he in no way ran to form that day.
From a punting standpoint, I won on the race, not daring to leave Workforce uncovered, but I would have won more more if any of the next 4 home had prevailed, so only half a drink. Nevermind. Before the race I had Workforce putting up the best time performance on 135 and I expected Bekhabad and Sarafina to improve considerably. They didn't improve as much as I expected but that was down to the way the race was run.
Show More
Gerald Mosse seemed quite satisfied with Sarafina's run - said the knock from Midas Touch gave her a breather.
If Mosse did say that then he has an agenda to pursue. Perhaps he is being defensive over being caught out when he might have seen it coming. Getting checked in a run, almost being knocked out of the saddle, is a blow from which you do not recover at any level. It's a short run in at Longchamp and it was a big result that Serafina even got placed after that. She could easily have finished last and I wouldn't have been surpised. To say that she wasn't gaining on the winner at the end and therefore wouldn't have won is a nonsense statement. In actual fact she gained 0.64 secs from the 2f pole; more like 1 second from when it happened although I couldn't get the clock on it to be sure. Coming round the outside also gave away ground. It was an unbelievable run.
Workforce covered the last 2f in 25.64 secs (Sea The Stars did it in 23.0,Zarkava in 22.48,Dylan Thomas in 24.24 - go back to soft grnd Arcs like Dalakhani who ran 25.36,Sakhee in 25.24, - Montjeu took 25.92 in much softer ground)- WF is a stronmg galloper who got the breaks probably because the jockey bought some lucky heather before the race).
This was a race where there were enough hard-luck stories to say that the result might have been very different and for that reason to say that the best horse won is silly. STS and Zarkava, yes you can say that. This time, no its not clear.
Workforce covered the last 2f in 25.64 secs (Sea The Stars did it in 23.0,Zarkava in 22.48,Dylan Thomas in 24.24 - go back to soft grnd Arcs like Dalakhani who ran 25.36,Sakhee in 25.24, - Montjeu took 25.92 in much softer ground)- WF is a stronmg galloper who got the breaks probably because the jockey bought some lucky heather before the race).
This was a race where there were enough hard-luck stories to say that the result might have been very different and for that reason to say that the best horse won is silly. STS and Zarkava, yes you can say that. This time, no its not clear.
the result is definitely up for debate and in no way conclusive imo. people are basically saying that being stopped and not being interfered with at all have no baring on the final result of the race[smiley:crazy]
Just to be clear. I am in no way saying that WF is an average horse. On his Derby win I gave him the highest rating for years but no-one wanted to believe he was that good. The Arc win was in a below average Arc time and although it was obviously a better race than the Derby, the level he ran to wasn't.There was no luck needed at Epsom but there was on Sunday.
When Behkabad got a clear run he was only around 2 lengths behind Workforce, at the finish he was more than 4 lengths behind, hard to believe anybody would want to back him to reverse the result, given a clear run.
Sandown, it isn't unusual for the Arc to turn out to be a weaker race than the hype and strong line-ups suggest it will be. Sea the Stars, Dylan Thomas and Zarkava had all run better performances on the clock than they did in the Arc.
Figgis
We've had this debate before. When you talk about the clock you are referring to asingle figure based on final ti,e. When I talk about times I am using a combination of final time and projected time based on how the pace was distributed.With that im mind the Arc nearly always produces the best figures of the year. Whether Bekhabed can ever beat WF over 12f I doubt but that opinion is based on what WF did in the Derby not what he did in the Arc.If we had known that WF was back to his Epsom best I would have played the race differently. As it was, the Japanese horse ran much better than I expected and nearly beat WF on the day,. If he had I would have done money but for the fact that I laid WF in-running. Forecasting how horses will run is, as you well know, as much art as it is science.
We've had this debate before. When you talk about the clock you are referring to asingle figure based on final ti,e. When I talk about times I am using a combination of final time and projected time based on how the pace was distributed.With that im mind the Arc nearly always produces the best figures of the year. Whether Bekhabed can ever beat WF over 12f I doubt but that opinion is based on what WF did in the Derby not what he did in the Arc.If we had known that WF was back to his Epsom best I would have played the race differently. As it was, the Japanese horse ran much better than I expected and nearly beat WF on the day,. If he had I would have done money but for the fact that I laid WF in-running. Forecasting how horses will run is, as you well know, as much art as it is science.
Sandown: you've been on this forum a very long time so as a long-term player I respect your opinion.
Accepting all your statements about lucky breaks and racetime etc, at the end of the day, horses have to have a level of ability in order to succeed at Group 1 level, and that ability has to be relevant to the race they are competing in.
Workforce has the ability to succeed over 12f at Group 1 level. That cannot be disputed now.
Nakayama Festa ditto, as does Behkabad and Fame And Glory (Youmzain also, but he has come to the end of the road now).
Sarafina is unproven at Group 1 level over 12-furlongs, despite 2 attempts, both on her favoured "soft" ground.
Also, none of her family have succeeded at any Group level over 12f.
Yes, she suffered interference, but before you can consider her to be unlucky you need to know that she would have been capable of winning had the interference not occurred. Until she wins a Group 1 over 12f then the jury is out - personally, I think she will struggle to win a Group 1 at 12f (for reasons above).
Going back to the Arc, I would agree that Sarafina gained ground on Workforce between the 2f and 1f poles - but that was when Workforce was weaving his way to the front, whereas Sarafina was motoring in-the-clear down the outside, so no surprise there - but, once Workforce was in the clear, I don't think Sarafina made significant impression.
Accepting all your statements about lucky breaks and racetime etc, at the end of the day, horses have to have a level of ability in order to succeed at Group 1 level, and that ability has to be relevant to the race they are competing in.
Workforce has the ability to succeed over 12f at Group 1 level. That cannot be disputed now.
Nakayama Festa ditto, as does Behkabad and Fame And Glory (Youmzain also, but he has come to the end of the road now).
Sarafina is unproven at Group 1 level over 12-furlongs, despite 2 attempts, both on her favoured "soft" ground.
Also, none of her family have succeeded at any Group level over 12f.
Yes, she suffered interference, but before you can consider her to be unlucky you need to know that she would have been capable of winning had the interference not occurred. Until she wins a Group 1 over 12f then the jury is out - personally, I think she will struggle to win a Group 1 at 12f (for reasons above).
Going back to the Arc, I would agree that Sarafina gained ground on Workforce between the 2f and 1f poles - but that was when Workforce was weaving his way to the front, whereas Sarafina was motoring in-the-clear down the outside, so no surprise there - but, once Workforce was in the clear, I don't think Sarafina made significant impression.
Sandown
Yes I realise that your time figures incorporate sectionals but surely you don't have Dylan Thomas's Arc as his best performance? Also, the Sea the Stars and Zarkava Arcs were run in very poor final times for Group 1s, taking sectionals from such slow races would prove very misleading.
Yes I realise that your time figures incorporate sectionals but surely you don't have Dylan Thomas's Arc as his best performance? Also, the Sea the Stars and Zarkava Arcs were run in very poor final times for Group 1s, taking sectionals from such slow races would prove very misleading.
Wayward Lad
Sarafina is top-class I can assure you. I had my doubts over whether she would stay 12f - on her last 2 runs I no longer have those doubts. I believe that soft gtound is not her favoured ground - I believe she is better on fast ground. The official ground descriptions of her wins are misleading. Look at her action. However, she is only medium-sizedat best and not too robust and I think the Arc was not her cup of tea.I believe she can win a G1 at 12f against her own sex. Whether she can against colts depends on ground, field size. Against colts she may be better over 10f but her breeding suggests she should get 12f (DI 0.6 CD -0.21) even though her sire was a miler.
Sarafina is top-class I can assure you. I had my doubts over whether she would stay 12f - on her last 2 runs I no longer have those doubts. I believe that soft gtound is not her favoured ground - I believe she is better on fast ground. The official ground descriptions of her wins are misleading. Look at her action. However, she is only medium-sizedat best and not too robust and I think the Arc was not her cup of tea.I believe she can win a G1 at 12f against her own sex. Whether she can against colts depends on ground, field size. Against colts she may be better over 10f but her breeding suggests she should get 12f (DI 0.6 CD -0.21) even though her sire was a miler.
one of the things that stick in the mind over the years is the number of horses that get badly hampered & then proceed to run on with gutso catching the eye but fail to deliver next time up.
Whether its the fright in the heat of battle that produces adrenalin that allows them to make a forcefull run masking the onset of lactic build up??
Just a thought
Whether its the fright in the heat of battle that produces adrenalin that allows them to make a forcefull run masking the onset of lactic build up??
Just a thought
geoffm
I believe bookies like to lay unlucky horses if they are over-bet next time
I believe bookies like to lay unlucky horses if they are over-bet next time
Mick Channos horse was one such beat in the Guineas a couple of years ago .. Nufoor or something ... went to Ireland and got beat again
Workforce had to avoid all these problems just like every other horse. It wasn't like he was on his own with a free run down the outside. He used his class and pace to weave and avoid trouble which the others failed to do.
Sandown
we never agreed about bekhabad before the Arc and we don't agree now. Workforce showed a really good turn of foot and won very well. The first two pulled well clear. of course Sarafina and Bekhabad would have been closer without interference but so would a few others with Fame and Glory pretty well murdered.
However the bottom line was that Workforce had the best form before the race and Bekhabad's form never looked good enough and still doesn't.
I know you wanted Bekhabad and I am sorry he didn't win for you. However I did think you might have had the good grace to admit that you were wrong about the value of the form he showed when he only just beat a listed class animal in his trial. It never looked remotely in the same league as Workforce's Derby win. He was not good enough. might make a decent 4yo though.
we never agreed about bekhabad before the Arc and we don't agree now. Workforce showed a really good turn of foot and won very well. The first two pulled well clear. of course Sarafina and Bekhabad would have been closer without interference but so would a few others with Fame and Glory pretty well murdered.
However the bottom line was that Workforce had the best form before the race and Bekhabad's form never looked good enough and still doesn't.
I know you wanted Bekhabad and I am sorry he didn't win for you. However I did think you might have had the good grace to admit that you were wrong about the value of the form he showed when he only just beat a listed class animal in his trial. It never looked remotely in the same league as Workforce's Derby win. He was not good enough. might make a decent 4yo though.
Sarafina was flying at the end of the Vermeille!!! So was her 100-1 pacemaker Ashiyla, after Thierry Jarnet stopped looking around and gave her a push and shove! Sarafina only beat the pacemaker by a short head in that race, I personally don't think Sarafina is as good as people are making out and to say she would have won the Arc without the interference is a bit daft!!!
The 3 year old fillies this year have been pretty average to say the least and she is probably the best of them!!!
The 3 year old fillies this year have been pretty average to say the least and she is probably the best of them!!!
Longchamp Sunday pretty difficult to rate, don't know whether the going was different on whichever tracks/shutes were used, or rail realignments have complicated matters.
But attempting to make some sense of it, have given Workforce a figure 5lbs below his recordbreaking Derby run, Behkabad 3lbs below his last 2 wins in the Grand Prix de PAris and the Niel, and Sarafina improving 11lbs from her Diane win.
For those still doubting whether the best horse won, think Workforce can prove a superstar if kept in training in 2011 at 10-12f, one of the highest rated European horses in the last decade at least.
But attempting to make some sense of it, have given Workforce a figure 5lbs below his recordbreaking Derby run, Behkabad 3lbs below his last 2 wins in the Grand Prix de PAris and the Niel, and Sarafina improving 11lbs from her Diane win.
For those still doubting whether the best horse won, think Workforce can prove a superstar if kept in training in 2011 at 10-12f, one of the highest rated European horses in the last decade at least.
Looking at the replays of the Arc I think WF was below his best and still ultra impressive. The thing I liked the most about this performance it looks like the first time he didn't hang. 5 starts an Arc a Derby and IMO he has been a big baby all year up to the Arc. His best performance was the Derby showing his raw talent but I think the Arc was soo much more professional. I hope he does continue to train on as a 4 year old because we could see one of the best 4 year olds ever.
Workforce was very very fortunate to get a clear passage. Rewind time and run the race again with the same bunched field 5f out and there wouldnt be many takers at 7/4 for him to get the run of the race he did and win the arc would there.
I bet it strong and felt i had all the luck going for me in the race as i topped up IR when i saw the carnage happening.
If everything gets a clear run he might still hang on by a head from the japaneese horse, but its only a might. So does that sugest it was anything other than a decent performance rather than an unltra impressive one that stamps him in the top echelons?
I bet it strong and felt i had all the luck going for me in the race as i topped up IR when i saw the carnage happening.
If everything gets a clear run he might still hang on by a head from the japaneese horse, but its only a might. So does that sugest it was anything other than a decent performance rather than an unltra impressive one that stamps him in the top echelons?
I'm still staggered to find that people here think Bekhabad wasn't unlucky? Fair enough, Sarafina nearly got knocked over but her momentum going forward wasn't that badly impeded, but she probably lost a couple of lengths as a consequence.
Bekhabad was stopped at least twice, if not three times, losing as much ground, probably more. He was going at least as well as Workforce when they were both attempting to make ground, and while I'm not saying he would have won, Bekhabad should have been serving it up to Worforce in the final stages.
Also, and this is another thing I find strange from people who have watched the race here, Bekhabad showed a clear turn of foot when gaining any room. He used it to get through the sandwich late on that included Fame And Glory and Cavalryman, and then quickened again when in the clear. However, there was a 100 yards to go, he was never going to get to the first three, so why would Lemaire bother?
It was a stupid ride with hindsight and sell everything you have to back him in Hong Kong if he races there. Unless he messes up again, he'll bolt up. Indeed, they are missing a trick not going for the BC Turf.
Bekhabad was stopped at least twice, if not three times, losing as much ground, probably more. He was going at least as well as Workforce when they were both attempting to make ground, and while I'm not saying he would have won, Bekhabad should have been serving it up to Worforce in the final stages.
Also, and this is another thing I find strange from people who have watched the race here, Bekhabad showed a clear turn of foot when gaining any room. He used it to get through the sandwich late on that included Fame And Glory and Cavalryman, and then quickened again when in the clear. However, there was a 100 yards to go, he was never going to get to the first three, so why would Lemaire bother?
It was a stupid ride with hindsight and sell everything you have to back him in Hong Kong if he races there. Unless he messes up again, he'll bolt up. Indeed, they are missing a trick not going for the BC Turf.
He was unlucky as well Celtic Son. I watched the replay about 6 times with some friends Sunday night and watched Bekhabad closely but because he never gets the gaps to get his momemtum started its alot harder to quantify ( for me ) how much his continualled interference cost him.
For sarafina, she was at least a length in front of Workforce going equally as well, by the time shes knocked over and he then gets her going again, shes 3l down. She might have got a breather there, but im not sure that helps her much as she looked full of running, so in essence for her she lost 4-5l on workforce and then closes to 2.5l which for me means classes her as unlucky.
One things certain, swap Bekhabads passage and the winners, Workforce cant win and its nothing to do with speed to take gaps, its just how racing pans out.
For sarafina, she was at least a length in front of Workforce going equally as well, by the time shes knocked over and he then gets her going again, shes 3l down. She might have got a breather there, but im not sure that helps her much as she looked full of running, so in essence for her she lost 4-5l on workforce and then closes to 2.5l which for me means classes her as unlucky.
One things certain, swap Bekhabads passage and the winners, Workforce cant win and its nothing to do with speed to take gaps, its just how racing pans out.
What people forget is that "unlucky" horses are ridden from where they are, and end up getting caught in traffic, because:
a) they are not good enough to make their own pace or be ridden prominently, and need pacemakers etc
b) are not classy (relative to the race they are in) or speedy enough to get out of trouble when it does arrive
Sandown, have you done sectionals on every horse in this race? Does it show which horse ran the best furlong or 2 furlong split time? Would be 80% sure it was Workforce, only other possible candidate would be Sarafina, Behkabad not even close
When looking back at most Arcs, they are nearly all rough races due to 20 strong fields going around bends, rather than up a straight. Yet despite the hard-luck stories of those behind, the winner is invariably proven to be the best horse.
a) they are not good enough to make their own pace or be ridden prominently, and need pacemakers etc
b) are not classy (relative to the race they are in) or speedy enough to get out of trouble when it does arrive
Sandown, have you done sectionals on every horse in this race? Does it show which horse ran the best furlong or 2 furlong split time? Would be 80% sure it was Workforce, only other possible candidate would be Sarafina, Behkabad not even close
When looking back at most Arcs, they are nearly all rough races due to 20 strong fields going around bends, rather than up a straight. Yet despite the hard-luck stories of those behind, the winner is invariably proven to be the best horse.
Anyway, enough of all this, what about the real star of the card and the best performance shown, Goldikova 
My pre-race views were:
Bekhabad could run to a level of 135 even though his best final time figure never exceeded 114. I see no reason to change my mind as he did not get the run of the race to prove it. The race time was slow for an Arc, possibly slower than I've rated it, and Bekhabad got no run. He stays 12f well, but has possibly more toe than WF but needs time to get into his stride. I didn't change my mind about WF after a bad run in the KG so I see no reason to change my mind about Bekhabad and therefroe, cryoftruth, there is no reason to show good grace.
Workforcedid not show a great turn of foot; neither did he at Epsom. He got a great ride and showed greta guts but the runner-up could be said to have been unlucky given that he got hampered whereas WF wasn't.
Planteurdidn't stay which I thought was more than likely
Cape Blanco was a strong lay for me because I don't think he is at his best over 12f and certainly not on soft ground
Fame and Glory was also hampered badly but i always felt that he wouldn't have sufficient pace.
Sarafina did much, much better than I thought she would and she was the unluckiest horse in the field and finished fastest of all.
The carnage around the run was key to the outcome. Apart from CB all of the above horses "might" have won given a clear run. The only surprise for me was how well the second ran but given the slowish time an outsider is always likely to pop up.
Bekhabad could run to a level of 135 even though his best final time figure never exceeded 114. I see no reason to change my mind as he did not get the run of the race to prove it. The race time was slow for an Arc, possibly slower than I've rated it, and Bekhabad got no run. He stays 12f well, but has possibly more toe than WF but needs time to get into his stride. I didn't change my mind about WF after a bad run in the KG so I see no reason to change my mind about Bekhabad and therefroe, cryoftruth, there is no reason to show good grace.
Workforcedid not show a great turn of foot; neither did he at Epsom. He got a great ride and showed greta guts but the runner-up could be said to have been unlucky given that he got hampered whereas WF wasn't.
Planteurdidn't stay which I thought was more than likely
Cape Blanco was a strong lay for me because I don't think he is at his best over 12f and certainly not on soft ground
Fame and Glory was also hampered badly but i always felt that he wouldn't have sufficient pace.
Sarafina did much, much better than I thought she would and she was the unluckiest horse in the field and finished fastest of all.
The carnage around the run was key to the outcome. Apart from CB all of the above horses "might" have won given a clear run. The only surprise for me was how well the second ran but given the slowish time an outsider is always likely to pop up.
Sandown, I too was surprised how well the Japanese horse ran (basically 'cos I had no idea about the horse's form) but his final time figure was pretty decent, taking the severe wfa difference into account.
I thought Goldikova's performance was pretty average for her. Her 2 biggest rivals were Paco Boy and Dick Turpin and had terrible wide draws(where she got beat last year). Nothing too special about it imo although great to see here win a record breaking number of G1s that is an amazing achievement.
Masterminded, her time was the best on the card (but still a few pounds short of her 2 best performances) and unlike in the Arc, her main rivals ran to form. She's been competing against the best around for 3 seasons now and doesn't get the credit she deserves as far as I'm concerned. Imo her 2 best runs were this year's Prix Rothschild and last year's Jacques le Marois, where she was outstanding on the clock, those 2 runs seem to be underrated. Milers tend to have to do a lot more than middle distance horses to get the same credit, incredibly Timeform only rated her as high as F&G before Sunday, looks like they've dropped his rating since. Also, while I'm all for looking to the future in this sport, I find it bizarre that more words are spent on the likes of Frankel, who though extremely promising he undoubtedly is, is just a baby and could easily go the way of 2 recent other promising youngters that were talked up as future triple crown winners, Crowded House and SNA.
I've never really taken to Goldikova. A lot of the Group 1s she's won have been weak affairs - races only promoted to G1 status in recent years - and that she's never been run in the Sussex or QEII is disappointing. Still they've found a away to keep winning races with her and her consistency over 3 seasons has been remarkable.
Figgis I couldn't agree more about the credit she deserves but I am still not blown away by that performance. I also agree about people hailing all of these two year olds when there are horses out there winning the best races in the world getting no credit at all.
We get this in NH too - where the latest Irish novice chaser is always the new Arkle.
Figgis you are right to mention the weight for age allowance concerning Nakayama Festa, nobody else has seemed to comment on this!!! The weights had to be a big factor regarding the result and the first four home, history points to it being a big plus for the three year olds and the stats were right again for another year!
Nakayama Festa's form was there for everybody to see before the Arc and I flagged this up on another thread after the Prix Foy trial! He beat Buena Vista a shade cosy in the Takarazuka Kinen and she is one of the best race mares in the world. She should have won the Sheema Classic on Dubai World Cup night this year (inept ride by Peslier) and she has never been outside the first three in her eleven races (eight grade/group 1 races).
Nakayama Festa was easily the best older horse in the Arc!
Also some people still seem to have something against Japanese horses and rubbish their form even though over the last decade they have produced great horses like Vodka, Buena Vista, Heart's Cry, Deep Impact, El Condor Pasa, and Red Desire. I hope Behkabad does run in the Hong Kong Cup because will find out once and for all whether he is as good as Sandown claims!!! Behkabad should like the quicker ground being by Cape Cross so that's a plus! [;)]
Nakayama Festa's form was there for everybody to see before the Arc and I flagged this up on another thread after the Prix Foy trial! He beat Buena Vista a shade cosy in the Takarazuka Kinen and she is one of the best race mares in the world. She should have won the Sheema Classic on Dubai World Cup night this year (inept ride by Peslier) and she has never been outside the first three in her eleven races (eight grade/group 1 races).
Nakayama Festa was easily the best older horse in the Arc!
Also some people still seem to have something against Japanese horses and rubbish their form even though over the last decade they have produced great horses like Vodka, Buena Vista, Heart's Cry, Deep Impact, El Condor Pasa, and Red Desire. I hope Behkabad does run in the Hong Kong Cup because will find out once and for all whether he is as good as Sandown claims!!! Behkabad should like the quicker ground being by Cape Cross so that's a plus! [;)]
Hawkwing got to the furlong pole on the bridle on very testing ground tbf.
MrDinos
Yes, unfortunately it's one of those things that has been going on in racing for so long it's just accepted. Could you imagine AC Milan giving Arsenal a goal start just because their team has a lower average age? I'd like to see the best horses win the best races. As John Whitley once wrote, Group 1s are just age based handicaps.
Yes, unfortunately it's one of those things that has been going on in racing for so long it's just accepted. Could you imagine AC Milan giving Arsenal a goal start just because their team has a lower average age? I'd like to see the best horses win the best races. As John Whitley once wrote, Group 1s are just age based handicaps.
Goldikova's form over the last three years has been sensational and she has proved how amazing Zarkava was. Two of the best I've seen!!
anyone who thinks the ground was soft at longchamp on sunday is living in cloud cuckoo land the good ground performers were winning all day goldikova wooton bassett misty for me etc there was no rain at all from about 2 in the morning the night before and it was windy from about 8am onwards on top of that the sun was scorching all day and by the time the arc was ran it must have been about 70 degrees
as the other lad said check wooton bassetts time .
as the other lad said check wooton bassetts time .
A_T 06 Oct 10 22:01
I've never really taken to Goldikova. A lot of the Group 1s she's won have been weak affairs - races only promoted to G1 status in recent years - and that she's never been run in the Sussex or QEII is disappointing. Still they've found a away to keep winning races with her and her consistency over 3 seasons has been remarkable.
So true. I've found the constant references to the amount of G1's she's won as slightly ridiculous. Many of them aren't G1 races still. Falmouth Stakes and the re-named Prix Rothschild? I don't rate US Turf form, but at least that is "open" company in the context of a G1 record some are hyping up.
I've never really taken to Goldikova. A lot of the Group 1s she's won have been weak affairs - races only promoted to G1 status in recent years - and that she's never been run in the Sussex or QEII is disappointing. Still they've found a away to keep winning races with her and her consistency over 3 seasons has been remarkable.
So true. I've found the constant references to the amount of G1's she's won as slightly ridiculous. Many of them aren't G1 races still. Falmouth Stakes and the re-named Prix Rothschild? I don't rate US Turf form, but at least that is "open" company in the context of a G1 record some are hyping up.
Well I backed the winner of this year's QE2, a race I think most people would accept as being a genuine Group 1, I'm quite sure I wouldn't have collected though if Goldikova had been in opposition.
It's not "fishing." Everything I've put is true. Fillies and mares step up in class (obviously) when they step out of their own confined G1 races, regardless of the weight allowance. It's an easy fact to grasp. Who would back Music Show in open wfa company at G1 level? No one. The record hype is farcical - that is my point.
And the 1400m course at Longchamp according to Nick Mordin is not 1400m. The times on that course are always seemingly that much quicker than anywhere else on the course, regardless of if that is true. Paco Boy ran 1:19 and something with mud flying a couple of years back.
And the 1400m course at Longchamp according to Nick Mordin is not 1400m. The times on that course are always seemingly that much quicker than anywhere else on the course, regardless of if that is true. Paco Boy ran 1:19 and something with mud flying a couple of years back.
I think TLP was referring to comparing the 7f time to a standard time, not the other times, although I'd still maintain that it was probably good to soft on that part of the course, unless there was major rail movement.
we will split the difference figg ill give you the slow side of good.
Ok TLP, don't you think the rest of the round course was a little bit softer?
not much look at the way they were all finishing .
You might be right, possibly some extreme rail moving had taken place.
i think its one of the fastest drying tracks ever thats why a lot of people get caught out every year when the forecast is for torrential rain they assume the going will be soft but it hardly ever is and this was no exception.
Sandown 06 Oct 10 19:09
My pre-race views were:
Workforce did not show a great turn of foot; neither did he at Epsom.
Really surprised at this view, Sandown, especially as on the overhead shot, Workforce looked to take many lengths out of the field in the space of 100 yards 4f out in the Derby when Moore went after the leader - that looked like serious acceleration to me, even if the others were not up to Grp 1 standard.
And in the Arc, he looked to quicken through gaps, a race in which only Sarafina appeared to match his turn of foot when getting clear on the outside. Yes, a few suffered interference, but none, including Behkabad could match his speed when they did get in the clear themselves.
Hence surprised at your comment, Sandown, that you still think Behkabad got more toe than Workforce, just needs longer to wind it up. That makes Behkabad sound like a galloper to me, not a speed horse.
TLP, given all the race times, think the ground must have been riding good to soft at least,if not softer, especially given that the rail is normally sited on the innermost configuration on Arc day (isn't it?) to save the ground, distances must have been on the short side.
Goldikova's race was not strongly run and irrespective of how you work out standard times, going allowances etc, just comparing that time with Wootton Bassett alone suggests the latter won one of the weakest 2yo Group 1's of the season, and a good 4-5 lengths off the likes of Frankel, Dream Ahead etc
My pre-race views were:
Workforce did not show a great turn of foot; neither did he at Epsom.
Really surprised at this view, Sandown, especially as on the overhead shot, Workforce looked to take many lengths out of the field in the space of 100 yards 4f out in the Derby when Moore went after the leader - that looked like serious acceleration to me, even if the others were not up to Grp 1 standard.
And in the Arc, he looked to quicken through gaps, a race in which only Sarafina appeared to match his turn of foot when getting clear on the outside. Yes, a few suffered interference, but none, including Behkabad could match his speed when they did get in the clear themselves.
Hence surprised at your comment, Sandown, that you still think Behkabad got more toe than Workforce, just needs longer to wind it up. That makes Behkabad sound like a galloper to me, not a speed horse.
TLP, given all the race times, think the ground must have been riding good to soft at least,if not softer, especially given that the rail is normally sited on the innermost configuration on Arc day (isn't it?) to save the ground, distances must have been on the short side.
Goldikova's race was not strongly run and irrespective of how you work out standard times, going allowances etc, just comparing that time with Wootton Bassett alone suggests the latter won one of the weakest 2yo Group 1's of the season, and a good 4-5 lengths off the likes of Frankel, Dream Ahead etc
Pedrobob, Goldikova's time was nearly a second faster, you must use a very low pound per sec scale over 7f.
Sorry meant high scale. It's unfair to compare Wootton Bassett to Dream Ahead and Frankel, as they've both run exceptional times. WB's time was perfectly good for a Group 1 2yo 7f race, he ran a big speed figure at York too but it's not that unusual in 2yo 6f races.
only using the standard 5 lengths per second, Figgis. WB's time was 0.9 secs slower = 4 1/2 lengths slower than Goldikova
I had Goldikova running good 5-6 lengths below her best, hence the ordinary rating in turn awarded to WB.
I had WB improving on his York run by 6-7 lbs (taking change in distance into account), but whilst York was decent time, didn't put it in the Group 1/2 bracket. WB was getting 5lbs from Galtymore Lad who has no pretensions to Group 1/2 level and is entered in a York listed on Saturday.
Presumably you have awarded decent rating to WB on Sunday?
I had Goldikova running good 5-6 lengths below her best, hence the ordinary rating in turn awarded to WB.
I had WB improving on his York run by 6-7 lbs (taking change in distance into account), but whilst York was decent time, didn't put it in the Group 1/2 bracket. WB was getting 5lbs from Galtymore Lad who has no pretensions to Group 1/2 level and is entered in a York listed on Saturday.
Presumably you have awarded decent rating to WB on Sunday?
Pedrobob, the allowance I used for the 7f course on Sunday gives him the exact same rating I had him on at York (his subsequent Doncaster run was nearly a stone worse), which makes Goldikova's run 6lbs below her very best, with Paco Boy and Dick Turpin running right up to their best, so it's an allowance I can be pretty confident about. I know this makes Galtymore Lad's rating quite high too but it's not unusual for Channon 2yos to run very big figures then go downhill. Both WB and GL ran below their best at Doncaster (they had so much in hand of the field that they still finished ahead) but that's hardly surprising given the hard race they both had at York. WB bounced back to his best on Sunday , unfortunately I didn't back him and I wouldn't like to bet on GL doing the same.
Cheers Figgis for your thoughts, found Longchamp Sunday difficult to rate.
Interesting that you think Paco Boy/Dick Turpin ran to their best. Confess to being deceived on the eye often when trying to judge the pace, but had thought they didn't go that quick in the Foret, only really raced from around 3 out when Regal Parade went on, and the less than average pace enabled the front 3 to finish close up when normally would have been separated by a bit further than heads and nks with a strong gallop.
Interesting that you think Paco Boy/Dick Turpin ran to their best. Confess to being deceived on the eye often when trying to judge the pace, but had thought they didn't go that quick in the Foret, only really raced from around 3 out when Regal Parade went on, and the less than average pace enabled the front 3 to finish close up when normally would have been separated by a bit further than heads and nks with a strong gallop.
i don't think i've ever read as much crap as been written on this thread. workforce unlucky? he won on merit. bekhabad unlucky? he had a chance to run through a gap between cape blanco and lope de vega, but didn't take it. he was hardly running on like a train, and most likely bounced after his prix niel run.
sarafina? she was about 2 furlongs out of her ground when the leaders quickened. she'd have had to been dancing brave mark 2 to have won from there. quite why there was even a stewards enquiry is beyond me. oh no wait, theres a stewards for every race in france.
as for the idea that goldikova is overrated, that is so laughable as not to even be worth replying to.
sarafina? she was about 2 furlongs out of her ground when the leaders quickened. she'd have had to been dancing brave mark 2 to have won from there. quite why there was even a stewards enquiry is beyond me. oh no wait, theres a stewards for every race in france.
as for the idea that goldikova is overrated, that is so laughable as not to even be worth replying to.
oops. just watched the replay and noticed sarafina was nearly brought down. stand by what i say about bekhabad though.
Sandown Joined: 06 Dec 01
Replies: 515 04 Oct 10 16:19
Senor E.B
I worked out the maths on this once for myself, in very simlpe terms.Roughly speaking, for every 10% faster you need 20% more energy
i'd be intrigued to know how you come by these equations.
Replies: 515 04 Oct 10 16:19
Senor E.B
I worked out the maths on this once for myself, in very simlpe terms.Roughly speaking, for every 10% faster you need 20% more energy
i'd be intrigued to know how you come by these equations.
Sandown - You're wasting your time, everything you've written has been accurate but many people suffer with the blinkers when it comes to horse racing. The race turned into a farce, nobody knows what would've happened had all the blockages happened(i blame Murtagh for ruining his own, and other other, horses race)
Mythical Prince
I'll try, if I can remember.I'm also not a physicist so if there any on here please correct me.
E=MC squared where E = energy, m= mass and C = speed of light.
Substitute speed for speed of light.
So, a horse weighing 1200 lb travelling at 40mph = 1200 x 40 x 40 = 1,920,000 units of energy.
At 44mph (10% faster)1200 x 44 x 44 = 2,323,200 units or +21% more units of energy
PS I note that you made your comments BEFORE watching a replay.I hope you gave it more than a glance. I have watched it a dozen times and had the digital stop watch on most of the contenders so I think I have it "taped"
I'll try, if I can remember.I'm also not a physicist so if there any on here please correct me.
E=MC squared where E = energy, m= mass and C = speed of light.
Substitute speed for speed of light.
So, a horse weighing 1200 lb travelling at 40mph = 1200 x 40 x 40 = 1,920,000 units of energy.
At 44mph (10% faster)1200 x 44 x 44 = 2,323,200 units or +21% more units of energy
PS I note that you made your comments BEFORE watching a replay.I hope you gave it more than a glance. I have watched it a dozen times and had the digital stop watch on most of the contenders so I think I have it "taped"
think MP showed himself up a bit there but make a statement before even watching the replay. Sorry, MP.
Anyone see Mark Johnsons interview on ATR earlier this season .. and his views about getting from A to B in the quickest possible time .. it is basically best to keep up a constant speed and not to slow down and then accelerate as it wastes too much energy .. in his opinion.
Anyone see Mark Johnsons interview on ATR earlier this season .. and his views about getting from A to B in the quickest possible time .. it is basically best to keep up a constant speed and not to slow down and then accelerate as it wastes too much energy .. in his opinion.
requestingflyby
Thanks for your support . There are quite a few others who have a similar view. For others, like Mythical Prince a horse will not run "like a train" through a non-existant gap for the obvious reason that it will most likely fall. When a gap appeared for Bekhabad it was so late on that he would have had to have found about 6l in 150 yds an impossibility even for Sea Bird or Dancing Brave which he is most certainly not.Ther is no evidanced whatsoever that he bounced - you don't finish 4th in the Arc if you have bounced, you finished out the back.
pedrobob
Finishing speed is related to overall pace obiously but there are horses which can quicken by virtue of their ability to actually do that i.e. take more strided per sec and those that lengthen i.e extend their stride. Bekhabd and WF are of the latter variety and they are at their best when they are unimpeded.They need longer to get to full speed. Sarafina can actually quicken in a shorter space - smaller lighter horses usually can.
Judging speed with aid of a stopwatch is useless or even worse. Every thing is relative. Sit in a car going at 60mph and watch car going at 100 mph - you seem to be at a standstill. Sit in a car doing 20mph and watch one go by at 60mph and it will seem faster than the one doing 100 in the first scenario. Its all relative.
WF finished in 25.64 (slow by prev Arc winners ) and at Epsom it was 23.48 which was fast but the ground was fast. Fortuni over the same C&D finished in 23.51 and he was rated 85.
Thanks for your support . There are quite a few others who have a similar view. For others, like Mythical Prince a horse will not run "like a train" through a non-existant gap for the obvious reason that it will most likely fall. When a gap appeared for Bekhabad it was so late on that he would have had to have found about 6l in 150 yds an impossibility even for Sea Bird or Dancing Brave which he is most certainly not.Ther is no evidanced whatsoever that he bounced - you don't finish 4th in the Arc if you have bounced, you finished out the back.
pedrobob
Finishing speed is related to overall pace obiously but there are horses which can quicken by virtue of their ability to actually do that i.e. take more strided per sec and those that lengthen i.e extend their stride. Bekhabd and WF are of the latter variety and they are at their best when they are unimpeded.They need longer to get to full speed. Sarafina can actually quicken in a shorter space - smaller lighter horses usually can.
Judging speed with aid of a stopwatch is useless or even worse. Every thing is relative. Sit in a car going at 60mph and watch car going at 100 mph - you seem to be at a standstill. Sit in a car doing 20mph and watch one go by at 60mph and it will seem faster than the one doing 100 in the first scenario. Its all relative.
WF finished in 25.64 (slow by prev Arc winners ) and at Epsom it was 23.48 which was fast but the ground was fast. Fortuni over the same C&D finished in 23.51 and he was rated 85.
Have to agree with Sandown, the effects of backing up altered the whole dynamics of the race meaning ones near the front of the fields momentum was nowhere near the strength of those coming from behind.
Under those circumstances it was always going to be the horses that got the best passage from the back who were going to be involved in the finish.
As i say, ive no axe to grind as i didn't have a bet in the race.
Under those circumstances it was always going to be the horses that got the best passage from the back who were going to be involved in the finish.
As i say, ive no axe to grind as i didn't have a bet in the race.
If they were to run this race again, at a proper gallop and no slowing down with 5 furlongs to go resulting in a bunched pack, then in all likelihood Workforce would have won bu further. He stays this trip standing on his head and a much stonger run race would have suited him perfectly.
sintonian
Apart from "might have won" replacing "would have run" I don't necessarily diagree with you. It would have suited WF more as it would others, BUT what we are discussing is the Arc as run on Sunday. If WF had been impeded as badly as others the result "might" well have been different because so many were badly affected. That's all you have to concede.
Apart from "might have won" replacing "would have run" I don't necessarily diagree with you. It would have suited WF more as it would others, BUT what we are discussing is the Arc as run on Sunday. If WF had been impeded as badly as others the result "might" well have been different because so many were badly affected. That's all you have to concede.
Sandown Joined: 06 Dec 01
Replies: 520 07 Oct 10 10:17
Ther is no evidanced whatsoever that he bounced - you don't finish 4th in the Arc if you have bounced, you finished out the back.
Sandown, many people don't believe in the "bounce", however, I do as I had noticed it (after losing money) before I'd even read anything about the subject. What I don't believe in though is this "bounce to the moon" prediction stuff, when a horse regresses it's not possible to judge if it'll be by 10lbs or more than 2 stones etc.
Replies: 520 07 Oct 10 10:17
Ther is no evidanced whatsoever that he bounced - you don't finish 4th in the Arc if you have bounced, you finished out the back.
Sandown, many people don't believe in the "bounce", however, I do as I had noticed it (after losing money) before I'd even read anything about the subject. What I don't believe in though is this "bounce to the moon" prediction stuff, when a horse regresses it's not possible to judge if it'll be by 10lbs or more than 2 stones etc.
Figgis
I believe that Len Ragowitz was the first person to write about the "bounce theory" in his book "The Odds Must Be Crazy" based on his decades of reading speed figures.He devotes a chapter to it "Reading between the lines." I'm sure you must have read it.He refers to horses coming off "peaks" and running "bad races" and I use "bounce" in the same way. A minor regression is neither here nor there given that on turf 9 out of 10 races are not run at a true pace. I re-state my view - there is no indication that Bekhabad bounced. His trial race was not run in an excessively fast time, there was 3 weeks to recover, as a 3 yr old he would have faster powers of recuperation - where is the case for "bouncing"?
I believe that Len Ragowitz was the first person to write about the "bounce theory" in his book "The Odds Must Be Crazy" based on his decades of reading speed figures.He devotes a chapter to it "Reading between the lines." I'm sure you must have read it.He refers to horses coming off "peaks" and running "bad races" and I use "bounce" in the same way. A minor regression is neither here nor there given that on turf 9 out of 10 races are not run at a true pace. I re-state my view - there is no indication that Bekhabad bounced. His trial race was not run in an excessively fast time, there was 3 weeks to recover, as a 3 yr old he would have faster powers of recuperation - where is the case for "bouncing"?
I've only just updated my figures for the meeting after putting in the times for the last race over C&D which was a lowly h/c run just 3.2 secs slower than the Arc and in which the winner was given a RPR of 89. If that is near right then the Arc was much more slowly run than I thought and the TS figure of 107 now looks correct. My projected figure comes out at 109 which must make WF the slowest winning time of any Arc that I have figures for. That bears out the view that in such circumstances anything can win and almost did. WF got lucky, that's all there is to it . On his Epsom figures he was still the best horse in the race - but who belkived he would repeat it after Ascot - and he might well go on to show it. But equally you can not write down any of the other horses either. They will have other opportunities to prove what they are capable of.
It's all very fine saying Workforce was lucky, didn't get stopped in running etc.
But all the supposedly unlucky horses such as Behkabad, Fame And Glory, Sarafina etc were ridden more prominently than Workforce ie nearer the front.
If their jockeys believed they were good enough in what some are arguing was a moderately run race, hence all the trouble, they would have kicked on earlier 3 or 4f out ..... booted clear in the straight and avoided all the scrimmaging.
But their jockeys presumably didn't believe in their mounts enough to do so? This would suggest that maybe the best horse still won?
Sandown, interesting sectional comparison of the Derby to Fortuni. Do you have a furlong by furlong split of the the 2 races for the final 3 to 4 furlongs up the finishing straight, would be very useful to see these?
Also, how would you price up Behkabad, Workforce, Sarafina, Nesta, Fame and Glory if they were to meet again?
But all the supposedly unlucky horses such as Behkabad, Fame And Glory, Sarafina etc were ridden more prominently than Workforce ie nearer the front.
If their jockeys believed they were good enough in what some are arguing was a moderately run race, hence all the trouble, they would have kicked on earlier 3 or 4f out ..... booted clear in the straight and avoided all the scrimmaging.
But their jockeys presumably didn't believe in their mounts enough to do so? This would suggest that maybe the best horse still won?
Sandown, interesting sectional comparison of the Derby to Fortuni. Do you have a furlong by furlong split of the the 2 races for the final 3 to 4 furlongs up the finishing straight, would be very useful to see these?
Also, how would you price up Behkabad, Workforce, Sarafina, Nesta, Fame and Glory if they were to meet again?
Sandown
Yes I've got the book, Ragozin wants to sell his "sheets" so understandably he doesn't give everything away but there's a lot of sensible stuff there. Even though I don't recognise all the patterns he refers to and I think some of it is taken a bit too far, there are undoubtedly patterns in horse's speed figures and while they can't be accurately predicted 100% of the time, they can be often enough to make it worthwhile.
I find it odd that you believe as many as 9 out of 10 turf races aren't run at a true pace. I quoted John Whitley before and I remember him saying something like 5 out of 6 weren't. I agree with some things he has said but I always thought that was an extraordinary thing to believe for somebody who's supposed to know about race times. I think like a lot of people with an academic background, including some American writers, the theories aren't always what happens in reality.
That statistic might be true if you're taking a "true pace" to mean perfectly even fractions. However, while I'm aware that there are many falsely run races that don't give true final time figures, I know there are much more than 1 out of 10 run at a good enough pace to give an accurate reflection of the horses' capabilities.
Yes I've got the book, Ragozin wants to sell his "sheets" so understandably he doesn't give everything away but there's a lot of sensible stuff there. Even though I don't recognise all the patterns he refers to and I think some of it is taken a bit too far, there are undoubtedly patterns in horse's speed figures and while they can't be accurately predicted 100% of the time, they can be often enough to make it worthwhile.
I find it odd that you believe as many as 9 out of 10 turf races aren't run at a true pace. I quoted John Whitley before and I remember him saying something like 5 out of 6 weren't. I agree with some things he has said but I always thought that was an extraordinary thing to believe for somebody who's supposed to know about race times. I think like a lot of people with an academic background, including some American writers, the theories aren't always what happens in reality.
That statistic might be true if you're taking a "true pace" to mean perfectly even fractions. However, while I'm aware that there are many falsely run races that don't give true final time figures, I know there are much more than 1 out of 10 run at a good enough pace to give an accurate reflection of the horses' capabilities.
pedrobob
zilzal1 summed it up neatly the effects of backing up altered the whole dynamics of the race meaning ones near the front of the fields momentum was nowhere near the strength of those coming from behind.I don't suppose the jocks foresaw that happening.
Hypothetical, but assuming 12f on good ground I would go 2/1 WF, 3/1 Behk, 7/2 Sara, 7/1 NF,12/1 F&G
zilzal1 summed it up neatly the effects of backing up altered the whole dynamics of the race meaning ones near the front of the fields momentum was nowhere near the strength of those coming from behind.I don't suppose the jocks foresaw that happening.
Hypothetical, but assuming 12f on good ground I would go 2/1 WF, 3/1 Behk, 7/2 Sara, 7/1 NF,12/1 F&G
Figgis
I use 9 out of 10 as a figure of speech not as a statistical fact. A true pace does mean perfectly even fractions. If you don't get them then you don't get a true run race by definition. The more uneven the more likely an unreliable figure results, whether a time figure or a collateral figure.
I use 9 out of 10 as a figure of speech not as a statistical fact. A true pace does mean perfectly even fractions. If you don't get them then you don't get a true run race by definition. The more uneven the more likely an unreliable figure results, whether a time figure or a collateral figure.
Sandown
I would be absolutely lumping on WF at that price. I laid Behkabad bigger than 3/1 on Sunday, I'd give you more than twice that now [;)]
I would be absolutely lumping on WF at that price. I laid Behkabad bigger than 3/1 on Sunday, I'd give you more than twice that now [;)]
PS That's their chances - not what I would lay or back them at fyi
Figgis
PPS I'd take your 6/1 Bekhabad should you put it up
And lump on!
PPS I'd take your 6/1 Bekhabad should you put it up
And lump on!
Sandown
I take it we're pricing up the hypothetical market on the basis of what we know now and everything getting a clear run, not another race being run after they'd already run in the Arc?
I take it we're pricing up the hypothetical market on the basis of what we know now and everything getting a clear run, not another race being run after they'd already run in the Arc?
Sandown 07 Oct 10 10:17
requestingflyby
Judging speed with aid of a stopwatch is useless or even worse. Every thing is relative. Sit in a car going at 60mph and watch car going at 100 mph - you seem to be at a standstill. Sit in a car doing 20mph and watch one go by at 60mph and it will seem faster than the one doing 100 in the first scenario. Its all relative.
WF finished in 25.64 (slow by prev Arc winners ) and at Epsom it was 23.48 which was fast but the ground was fast. Fortuni over the same C&D finished in 23.51 and he was rated 85.
Sandown, just had a go at doing some sectional times of the Epsom meeting and by my reckoning, the final 2f were run by both Fortuni and Workforce at Epsom quicker than 23 secs.
Some perspective should be put on comparison with the "85 rated Fortuni"
Fortuni finished in over 16 lengths slower final time than Workforce, and is now rated a 90+ horse, was also carrying 6lbs less than the 3yo.
Add in the 15lb WFA allowance at that time of the year, 2lbs per length at 1m4f and Workforce has produced a 53lbs better figure than an "85 horse", who is clearly better than that.
Looking at the comparisons of the sectionals at Epsom using the path crossings, Workforce has produced an amazing burst of speed from around Tattenham Corner into the finishing straight.... and run the final 2f somewhere closer to 22 secs than 23.
He has smashed the track record, he must have run fast somewhere along the line, even accounting for Good To Firm ground?
Sandown 07 Oct 10 11:39
I've only just updated my figures for the meeting after putting in the times for the last race over C&D which was a lowly h/c run just 3.2 secs slower than the Arc and in which the winner was given a RPR of 89
The 4yo Loonora who won the 12f hcap, carried 1lb less than Workforce.
She finished in 3.2 secs slower time (or 16 lengths), and allowing for WFA/sex allowances, that makes Workforce 37lbs superior, maybe worth on RPR of 126, even though RP actually awarded 130.
You are suggesting Workforce is slow compared to other Arc winners (WF finished in 25.64 (slow by prev Arc winners ) , and even on the references to the Derby, you are also suggesting his sectionals are nothing special.
Do you not think you have underestimated this horse and hence not giving him the credit maybe deserves?
requestingflyby
Judging speed with aid of a stopwatch is useless or even worse. Every thing is relative. Sit in a car going at 60mph and watch car going at 100 mph - you seem to be at a standstill. Sit in a car doing 20mph and watch one go by at 60mph and it will seem faster than the one doing 100 in the first scenario. Its all relative.
WF finished in 25.64 (slow by prev Arc winners ) and at Epsom it was 23.48 which was fast but the ground was fast. Fortuni over the same C&D finished in 23.51 and he was rated 85.
Sandown, just had a go at doing some sectional times of the Epsom meeting and by my reckoning, the final 2f were run by both Fortuni and Workforce at Epsom quicker than 23 secs.
Some perspective should be put on comparison with the "85 rated Fortuni"
Fortuni finished in over 16 lengths slower final time than Workforce, and is now rated a 90+ horse, was also carrying 6lbs less than the 3yo.
Add in the 15lb WFA allowance at that time of the year, 2lbs per length at 1m4f and Workforce has produced a 53lbs better figure than an "85 horse", who is clearly better than that.
Looking at the comparisons of the sectionals at Epsom using the path crossings, Workforce has produced an amazing burst of speed from around Tattenham Corner into the finishing straight.... and run the final 2f somewhere closer to 22 secs than 23.
He has smashed the track record, he must have run fast somewhere along the line, even accounting for Good To Firm ground?
Sandown 07 Oct 10 11:39
I've only just updated my figures for the meeting after putting in the times for the last race over C&D which was a lowly h/c run just 3.2 secs slower than the Arc and in which the winner was given a RPR of 89
The 4yo Loonora who won the 12f hcap, carried 1lb less than Workforce.
She finished in 3.2 secs slower time (or 16 lengths), and allowing for WFA/sex allowances, that makes Workforce 37lbs superior, maybe worth on RPR of 126, even though RP actually awarded 130.
You are suggesting Workforce is slow compared to other Arc winners (WF finished in 25.64 (slow by prev Arc winners ) , and even on the references to the Derby, you are also suggesting his sectionals are nothing special.
Do you not think you have underestimated this horse and hence not giving him the credit maybe deserves?
Figgis
how would you price up such a race? And what would you make Cape Blanco if he was added to the field?
how would you price up such a race? And what would you make Cape Blanco if he was added to the field?
pedrobob
Don't know where to start, really. Taking sectionals requires ideally stop-motion and digital timing so that you can get the furlong markers right. If using a stop-watch allow for reaction times.The parallax at Epsom is a real problem. I use TF's weight for age scale which has a 9lb difference. When making calculations it is necessary to allow for downill & uphill. Epsom is about as tricky a track as you can get apart from Goodwood. longchamp is a strange track too in that they finish faster than they should for a flat track and an allowance for that has to be used. The 7f track is odd too as is the 5f track. I'm not certain how I will leave the going allowance for Sunday because taking the handicap it pulls the figures down although I'm not happy with the rating reliability for the h/c winner . So its all a bit of a fudge.The sectionals for WF are what they are. I agree that he made a big move from the path to the 2f pole and deserves credit for that but I have given him a high 135 for the race anyway.What else? O yes. I don't work with lengths - stick with seconds, its more reliable as the conversion ratio changes with speed.
Don't know where to start, really. Taking sectionals requires ideally stop-motion and digital timing so that you can get the furlong markers right. If using a stop-watch allow for reaction times.The parallax at Epsom is a real problem. I use TF's weight for age scale which has a 9lb difference. When making calculations it is necessary to allow for downill & uphill. Epsom is about as tricky a track as you can get apart from Goodwood. longchamp is a strange track too in that they finish faster than they should for a flat track and an allowance for that has to be used. The 7f track is odd too as is the 5f track. I'm not certain how I will leave the going allowance for Sunday because taking the handicap it pulls the figures down although I'm not happy with the rating reliability for the h/c winner . So its all a bit of a fudge.The sectionals for WF are what they are. I agree that he made a big move from the path to the 2f pole and deserves credit for that but I have given him a high 135 for the race anyway.What else? O yes. I don't work with lengths - stick with seconds, its more reliable as the conversion ratio changes with speed.
made a big move from the path to the 2f pole and deserves credit for that but I have given him a high 135 for the race anyway
in the Derby
in the Derby
Sandown Joined: 06 Dec 01
Replies: 529 07 Oct 10 13:51
Figgis
how would you price up such a race? And what would you make Cape Blanco if he was added to the field?
Which race? A hypothetical re-run or a race after the Arc?
Replies: 529 07 Oct 10 13:51
Figgis
how would you price up such a race? And what would you make Cape Blanco if he was added to the field?
Which race? A hypothetical re-run or a race after the Arc?
Figgis
A new hypothetical race of course which won't ever take place
A new hypothetical race of course which won't ever take place
pedrobob
And 2bs per length is too much - more like 1.5 lbs
And 2bs per length is too much - more like 1.5 lbs
Well obviously I was well wide of the mark with Cape Blanco, but on viewing the race I don't believe he'd have won even over a shorter trip. He was over the top imo, which I had always said was a possibilty and why I wasn't full of confidence. It's difficult to price such horses up accurately beforehand because they could just as easily finish last as first. The same applied to Workforce before the race, he had competitive figures at his best and with obvious question marks about his rivals it was no surprise to see him win, but equally I wouldn't have been surprised to see him finish last, judged on his previous run and his unideal preparation, although in hindsight his long rest probably worked to his advantage.
Before the Arc some people argued that the form of Bekhabad was not up to Arc winning standard and that the best form going into the Src was that shown when Workforce won brilliantly by miles at epsom. Some people disagreed - fair enough. if everone agreed there would be no book on here would there?
What happens - Workforce wins the Arc, showing a decent turn of foot on the ground and confirming his Epsom run was a high class effort and Bekhabad is unplaced. This is commonly known as the proof of the pudding.
Now we have pages on how bekhabad was robbed by the way the race was run and that Workforce is still not much cop.
I suspect the official handicapper, the racing post ratings and Timeform will have Workforce well ahead of Bekhabad.
nevertheless there is no doubt that the people who thought Bekhabad's form was stronger than it turned out to be, will still argue the point. A bit like creationists and flat earth believers you cannot reason against blind faith.
What happens - Workforce wins the Arc, showing a decent turn of foot on the ground and confirming his Epsom run was a high class effort and Bekhabad is unplaced. This is commonly known as the proof of the pudding.
Now we have pages on how bekhabad was robbed by the way the race was run and that Workforce is still not much cop.
I suspect the official handicapper, the racing post ratings and Timeform will have Workforce well ahead of Bekhabad.
nevertheless there is no doubt that the people who thought Bekhabad's form was stronger than it turned out to be, will still argue the point. A bit like creationists and flat earth believers you cannot reason against blind faith.
''This is a freakishly good year for three year olds. So the fact that I rate Cape Blanco, Rewilding, Planteur and Behkabad ahead of Workforce shouldn't be allowed to obscure the fact that he's an exceptional talent.''- Nick Mordin
Funny, i had no intentions of letting that fact affect my opinion!
Funny, i had no intentions of letting that fact affect my opinion!
was a bit drunk when i posted all that, [smiley:crazy] however I don't think you have to watch the race over and over again to deduce bekhabad was not an unlucky loser.
cryoftruth
Your sarcasm is a bit trying.Here are my last comments on the Arc thread, the second last on the Bekhabad thread and the para from this thread's opening post. In what way did I underestimate WF or state that Behkabad or Sarafina SHOULD have won?
Arc thread
Sandown
When: 30 Sep 10 12:48
Workforce running increases the risk factor because of the uncertainty. He is capable of winning or going very close based on his Epsom form. The ground should help him as has the right action for it. It may have been the fast round at Ascot but it was also the fact that he had a very hard race at Epsom imo and looked less physically imposing at Ascot. Is he back to best or not? He has to be covered whatever if you are making a book.
Bekhabad thread
Sandown
When: 19 Sep 10 16:11
pedrobob
Appreciate that what you are saying is that those ratings are what you think those horses are "capable" of, and have not necessarily achieved, an important distinction.
your understanding of what I am saying is spot on. All I would add is the qualifier "assuming that they are given a tactical ride which allows them to achieve an even pace." Of course, this might never be possible if the horse must be ridden from off the pace.Think Dancing Brave in the Derby. Then there are the other key factors of ground, distance, fitness etc.
My ratings based on the final times for the bets performances of the horses you list are:
Workforce 129 Cape Blanco 119 Harbinger 123 Behkabad 114 Planteur 113 Sarafina 98
NB It's very rare for final time ratings to actually match collateral ratings which in effect are also an assumption of what the horse could achieve on the clock
The Arc - what the sectionals show
Sandown
04 Oct 10 10:39
Joined:
Date Joined: 06 Dec 01
| Topic/replies: 1,713 | Blogger: Sandown's blog
But take nothing away from Workforce. To my mind, and to open up the KG debate again, this was the horse that Stoute expected to win then and he in no way ran to form that day.
From a punting standpoint, I won on the race, not daring to leave Workforce uncovered, but I would have won more more if any of the next 4 home had prevailed, so only half a drink. Nevermind. Before the race I had Workforce putting up the best time performance on 135 and I expected Bekhabad and Sarafina to improve considerably. They didn't improve as much as I expected but that was down to the way the race was run.
Your sarcasm is a bit trying.Here are my last comments on the Arc thread, the second last on the Bekhabad thread and the para from this thread's opening post. In what way did I underestimate WF or state that Behkabad or Sarafina SHOULD have won?
Arc thread
Sandown
When: 30 Sep 10 12:48
Workforce running increases the risk factor because of the uncertainty. He is capable of winning or going very close based on his Epsom form. The ground should help him as has the right action for it. It may have been the fast round at Ascot but it was also the fact that he had a very hard race at Epsom imo and looked less physically imposing at Ascot. Is he back to best or not? He has to be covered whatever if you are making a book.
Bekhabad thread
Sandown
When: 19 Sep 10 16:11
pedrobob
Appreciate that what you are saying is that those ratings are what you think those horses are "capable" of, and have not necessarily achieved, an important distinction.
your understanding of what I am saying is spot on. All I would add is the qualifier "assuming that they are given a tactical ride which allows them to achieve an even pace." Of course, this might never be possible if the horse must be ridden from off the pace.Think Dancing Brave in the Derby. Then there are the other key factors of ground, distance, fitness etc.
My ratings based on the final times for the bets performances of the horses you list are:
Workforce 129 Cape Blanco 119 Harbinger 123 Behkabad 114 Planteur 113 Sarafina 98
NB It's very rare for final time ratings to actually match collateral ratings which in effect are also an assumption of what the horse could achieve on the clock
The Arc - what the sectionals show
Sandown
04 Oct 10 10:39
Joined:
Date Joined: 06 Dec 01
| Topic/replies: 1,713 | Blogger: Sandown's blog
But take nothing away from Workforce. To my mind, and to open up the KG debate again, this was the horse that Stoute expected to win then and he in no way ran to form that day.
From a punting standpoint, I won on the race, not daring to leave Workforce uncovered, but I would have won more more if any of the next 4 home had prevailed, so only half a drink. Nevermind. Before the race I had Workforce putting up the best time performance on 135 and I expected Bekhabad and Sarafina to improve considerably. They didn't improve as much as I expected but that was down to the way the race was run.
By: mythical prince When: 07 Oct 10 14:53 was a bit drunk when i posted all that, however I don't think you have to watch the race over and over again to deduce bekhabad was not an unlucky loser.
I have never said that Behkabad was an unlucky loser. What I have said time and time again is that the rough house resulted in any number of horses losing their chance and that WF got a clear run through (which was lucky). If he had met the same interference then the rsesult might have been different.
I have never said that Behkabad was an unlucky loser. What I have said time and time again is that the rough house resulted in any number of horses losing their chance and that WF got a clear run through (which was lucky). If he had met the same interference then the rsesult might have been different.
Crikey COT, You dont do "Gracious winner" very well, do you??
yes sandown but it seems plenty were suggesting he was an unlucky loser. I mean the argument for sarafina is much stronger after further analysis (really shouldn't have polished off that entire bottle of whiskey last night 
) however as usual in racing it's only opinions as we can never know for sure if she had won if she hadn't suffered interference.
) however as usual in racing it's only opinions as we can never know for sure if she had won if she hadn't suffered interference.
zilzal1
Cryoftruth is guilty of reading something as he wants to read it and not as the actual words might be interpretated by anyone else.
Now we have pages on how bekhabad was robbed by the way the race was run and that Workforce is still not much cop.
I must have missed these pages
A[i] bit like creationists and flat earth believers you cannot reason against blind faith.[/i
Just so
Cryoftruth is guilty of reading something as he wants to read it and not as the actual words might be interpretated by anyone else.
Now we have pages on how bekhabad was robbed by the way the race was run and that Workforce is still not much cop.
I must have missed these pages
A[i] bit like creationists and flat earth believers you cannot reason against blind faith.[/i
Just so
Sandown, i'd concede WF got lucky in terms of avoiding the carnage in behind, sure, no worries. But I am gald he did. Im glad he backed up his Derby win, and deep down I think we all are. He is the main reason why we are discussing this race imo. If the Japanese horse had of Won there'd not be much discussion.
I'd also suggest if WF did not get through the gaps .. then many of us would be saying here and now the race was not run to suit, and that he was unlucky.
It was a nightmare race for many, but the reality is imo , the best horse still Won. Thankfully.
I'd also suggest if WF did not get through the gaps .. then many of us would be saying here and now the race was not run to suit, and that he was unlucky.
It was a nightmare race for many, but the reality is imo , the best horse still Won. Thankfully.
Hate it when people do that. Spin something deliberatley.
Most posts on here are well thought out .. except for that one by COT
Most posts on here are well thought out .. except for that one by COT
Yes sintonian, this has been a well constructed and debated thread, with plenty of thought provoking comment.
Whether I am right or wrong, or neither, there is food for thought here.
But, as in all walks of life, it is those who are incapable of joining-in who want to spoil the party.
What is it that mum's say to their children; "play nicely and you'll be invited back".
Whether I am right or wrong, or neither, there is food for thought here.
But, as in all walks of life, it is those who are incapable of joining-in who want to spoil the party.
What is it that mum's say to their children; "play nicely and you'll be invited back".
Post Your Reply
Please login to post a reply.
Wonder
Instance ID: 13539