Horse Antepost
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The 'Dream Ahead' Thread
The 'Dream Ahead' Thread
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Figgis, without checking, think I had Hooray some way behind Lady OF The Desert's time in their equivalent Lowther wins, guess we disagree about that. And Prescott claimed Hooray didn't like the soft ground at Newbury, so don't know what yesterday was all about.
Haven't rated yesterday yet, so maybe find you are right and clocked a decent time. Would disagree that the ground would have deteriorated much in half an hour, unless it was continually raining in between? Didn't Dream Ahead use parts of the racecourse not traversed before his race, so hardly inconvenienced? He clearly loves the ground, connections know this and would have to be concerned that will be unable to be anything like the horse on Good or faster. The rest certainly can't be as bad. But he is clearly very smart, and this not to detract from his win, just to comment how shocking the rest were for a Group 1 contest, they couldn't have won a cl4 nursery running like that. |
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Prescott said that the Newbury ground was a different kind of soft as it was watered
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I reckon the ground can easily change by around 10lbs between one race and another without further rain. I already have Hooray's race conditions about that much slower than the first 2 races, with Cityscape clocking the same kind of Group 2 time he clocked at Haydock and Hooray clocking a similar time to York and Kempton. I agree that Lady of the Desert's time was superior but that was an extremely good effort, she was some way below that in the Cheveley Park. Dream Ahead's time in the Morny was pretty decent too and that was good ground.
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Dream Ahead is from a speedy family and his sire Diktat is an influence for speed, so I can't see him staying a mile. The dam (by Cadeaux Genereux) was best at 5f and the grand-dam Sahara Star (by Green Desert) won the Molecomb. Dream Ahead is likely to prove best at 6f (over which distance he was extremely impressive on soft ground in the Middle Park), but he does not appeal as a Guineas prospect.
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PS Dream Ahead's siblings who stayed a mile+ were by Rainbow Quest (a strong stamina influence) and Selkirk (whose progeny tend to stay well).
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jamesp, I have read many of your posts before and it is very obvious that you are one of the best informed people on the forum. That said, I can never understand people looking at a racehorse's pedigree rather than the racehorse itself when trying to work out whether it will stay a given distance.
I'm not saying it's worthless information, but it can't possibly be as important as the living blood and flesh that enters the stalls and comes home, hopefully faster than the others. To my (not uneducated) eye, Dream Ahead has looked like he would be seen in an even more positive light with another furlong or two. In fact, given what I have seen from all three of his wins, I'd be very surprised if he doesn't stay a mile at three. The issue as far as I can see is simply whether he can win a Group One on quickish ground. |
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^
do you not think it's significant though, that he hasn't yet raced beyond 6 furlongs in three starts, that he's run in the prix morny and middle park, not a typical route for a guineas horse, that he's won two starts over six furlongs by a combined total of 18 lengths... and that the last horse to win the middle park and go on to guineas glory was rodrigo de triano, and he didn't win by nine lengths. I personally think he will stay a mile but in a guineas horse I think we should look for a horse that won't just get home, but will improve for the step up to the mile. |
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A horse's pedigree is far and away the most important factor in assessing its likely stamina limitations and optimum distance requirements. It's far from an exact science, and I readily admit that I was wrong about Canford Cliffs this year, but it's the first thing I look at when considering backing a horse antepost for the classics. So far Dream Ahead has shown prodigious speed over 6f and in each of his races he has wandered off a straight line (or hung) once he has hit the front. He won't need to improve for the step up to a mile to win the Guineas, but I suspect that he won't be able to maintain his current level of form next year over a mile. I'm open-minded about him getting 7f, as he has so much natural talent, but a mile in Group 1 company will surely be too far.
(Incidentally, Rodrigo De Triano had already won twice over 7f, including the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster, before dropping back in trip to win the Middle Park.) |
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Complete rubbish that it won't get a mile on both pedigree and racecourse evidence. Both Dam and Sire have produced plenty enough milers. Running style would suggest it would thrive for the step up. Putting 9 lengths between yourself and opposition in the final furlong hardly suggests the horse is gasping for air in the last furlong. Absolute certainty to get a mile.
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And there is a little bit more evidence about the mile. Credit Swap, by Diktat, just wins the 9f end to end gallop Cambridgeshire.
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Well, if he improves for a step up to a mile next year he could be the best miler I've seen in years. It's not impossible, and you're right to point to Credit Swap as an example of a speedily bred son of Diktat who stays further than could have been expected from his pedigree, but everything I've seen so far suggests to me that Dream Ahead will prove best at 6-7 furlongs.
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Agree with jamesp. I too was wrong about Canford Cliffs and obviously each horse is an individual, but in the long term it's usually wise to put a line through these types as far as the classics go.
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Figgis knew he didnt need it soft
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Ho hum... Dream Ahead returns to sprinting...
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I'd love to hear what some of the socalled experts with their dogmatism make of FRANKEL's pedigree...
Galileo for middle distance Kind for sprinting Kind's DAM's side is Rainbow Quest!! Teofilo the only notable previous offspring of Galileo by a DANEHILL mare and HE was a machine at 2yrs Frankel, likewise, BUT the stamina influence is coming to the fore as well and he shows every liklihood of staying 10f or more, judged on the Goodwood run. INTERESTINGLY, Noble Mission - the full brother, is rather less sharp and will be a middle distance horse according to Cecil... so breeding, or rather our blinkered/dogmatic perception of it is NOT everything |