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TD_Gunner
27 Sep 10 12:40
Joined:
Date Joined: 15 Mar 09
| Topic/replies: 5,691 | Blogger: TD_Gunner's blog
Hoping for a decent price on Saphresa.

- Won it last year
- Very good performance last time when not 100% ready
- Looks like she's been trained for the race again.
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Report Far From Trouble • September 27, 2010 5:20 PM BST
Likely fav iyo? Potentially a few big dangers in there, but many of these have had long hard seasons.
Report TD_Gunner • September 27, 2010 5:40 PM BST
Music Show probably mate.
Report Far From Trouble • September 27, 2010 5:45 PM BST
Yeah suppose she would be. Agree with what you're saying tbf, Sahpresa looks a moral
Report TD_Gunner • September 27, 2010 5:47 PM BST
All the other fillies with the top form have had long seasons, she's only had two starts this term. Would maybe be interested in Field Day too, she looked good when I saw her win at Ascot.
Report Far From Trouble • September 27, 2010 5:49 PM BST
Don't fancy that won, but should at least be a big price [;)]
Report Far From Trouble • September 28, 2010 3:20 PM BST
9/2 with B365, 4/1 Joint fav along with Music Show with VC, PP, SJ, C0rals and Billies
Report TD_Gunner • September 28, 2010 3:33 PM BST
do you think they'll be bigger than 9/2 around at any point Confused
Report sintonian • September 28, 2010 3:36 PM BST
you must be surprised by that price Gunner ? I am, not sure how many of these will run ..

Jacqueline Quest is still of some interest but i'll be playing on the day, if at all.
Report Far From Trouble • September 28, 2010 3:36 PM BST
I would hope so. 9/2 isn't exactly inspiring.

Can't see the price contracting much before Saturday anyway
Report TD_Gunner • September 28, 2010 3:39 PM BST
Yes sint, I was expecting 10/1 but guess that was naive.
Report sintonian • September 28, 2010 3:53 PM BST
you two have lost me! Thought she would be shorter.
Report sintonian • September 28, 2010 4:10 PM BST
Didn't Channon say after Ireland Music Show definitely wants 10f now ?

Spacious looks ok around 13/2 given her course form and she probably wont mind the ground, it will be G/S at best imo, so something to be wary of.
Report Far From Trouble • September 28, 2010 4:12 PM BST
Can't really see her being much shorter if at all on the day. Looks a fair price if nothing more, but not one to get me lumping on at this stage.
Report TD_Gunner • September 28, 2010 4:32 PM BST
I think she deserves to be that price, but was hoping for bigger due to her being French and not trained by one of the higher reputation trainers.

Was on Spacious big last time, that was her chance for group 1 glory imo, she should set it up for Saphresa here imo. (Would be pretty p.issed off if she won)
Report Prescription Drugs • September 29, 2010 7:22 AM BST
surely its Seta time, especially on the soft?
Report Dark Destroyer • September 29, 2010 8:21 AM BST
Soft ground form is thin on the ground here. Not a lot between Spacious & Strawberry on any number of form lines. Saphesa's win last year was on totally different ground and her price gives nothing away. General question mark about 3 year olds IMO at least. Seta was a decent 11/4 shot to win a listed LTO but makes minimal appeal in a Group 1 - also I cannot see the evidence for her thriving on soft (please put me right here Prescription Drugs). All in all a bitch of a race and having spent more time than is sensible trying to analyse it I cannot find a decent angle at all.
Report Prescription Drugs • September 29, 2010 8:35 AM BST
DD

Everything I'm seeing from connections revolves around her being a better horse with experience and softer ground, being a Pivotal filly out of a soft ground winning mare that they owned.

I can see the race cutting up quite severely and like you have been trying to find an angle, which I believe is 8/1 Seta given that she could easily go off half that price with the doubts about the other leading fancies even turning up
Report sintonian • September 29, 2010 9:10 AM BST
Seta has a similar profile to Strawberrydaiquri before she contested this race last year. They both raced in and won lesser races around conditions or listed class, before being thrown in at the deep end.
Report johnnyrant • September 29, 2010 12:20 PM BST
Seta will love any cut in the ground
Report Dark Destroyer • September 29, 2010 1:34 PM BST
On what basis do you say that ?
Report la mallatiere • September 29, 2010 4:03 PM BST
probably because she is a Pivotal filly and trainer saying she would like some cut ?
I think thats fairly right and she should go well on Saturday.
Report Dark Destroyer • September 29, 2010 6:23 PM BST
On Luca's excellent website he (or to be precise "Graeme") has stated that she was not suited by firm going which to me at least is not the same.

Seta who runs in the Atalanta Stakes at Sandown. She is in excellent form having bypassed the Dick Hern at Bath last week on account of the ground

This weekend we are looking forward to running Seta in the Listed Dick Hern Fillies’ Stakes at Bath. We have been keeping a close eye on the weather as very firm ground wouldn’t be ideal and would result in us rerouting to the Atalanta Stakes at Sandown next week, but a substantial amount of rain fell on the track on Tuesday and so long as the ground doesn’t firm up again she will take her chance (she will be declared with a rain advisory).
Report ben10 • September 29, 2010 11:57 PM BST
IS Liliside the French raider to be on in this race?
Report ben10 • September 30, 2010 3:37 PM BST
I take that as a no, given she isn't running! What to do now though...
Report zilzal1 • September 30, 2010 3:42 PM BST
If you look at the race that will resemble what we will get on Saturday, ie 8f on easy ground then you might think that a outsider has a chance here
Report sintonian • September 30, 2010 4:51 PM BST
had a bash at Sent From Heaven. I spent half the summer puzzled as to why they were running this horse over 7 or 8f on quick ground coz she looks a bit one paced and needs a bit of cut imo. Anyway, she gets cut for the first time since finishing a close 4th to Special Duty in the Guineas and at the time of here last run, 23 days ago, the stable were struggling to find winners, they had loads of short priced ones beat, since then they have had 6 winners inclduing a double today.
Report sintonian • September 30, 2010 4:52 PM BST
3-65 40/1 NRNB , FWIW
Report sintonian • September 30, 2010 4:56 PM BST
the hills team got Red Jazz to place in the QEII at 66/1 so hope for something similar! Cool
Report zilzal1 • September 30, 2010 5:14 PM BST
Didnt take a lot of solvingLaugh
Report ben10 • October 1, 2010 6:34 PM BST
Have taken a punt on Lahaleeb at 50/1. Loves soft gorund and if readied by her 4th career trainer has the form to win this
Report bazzar • October 1, 2010 8:42 PM BST
These steaks, are they cooked in a special way?
Report Far From Trouble • October 2, 2010 3:06 PM BST
CoolCoolCoolCool
Report TD_Gunner • October 2, 2010 3:10 PM BST
Easy as you like Happy
Report Figgis • October 2, 2010 4:11 PM BST
Well done TD.
Report bazzar • October 2, 2010 6:44 PM BST
Well done TD-GUNNER, just be aware of steaks and STAKES.
Report TD_Gunner • October 2, 2010 7:05 PM BST
thanks bazzar Mischief
Report ben10 • October 2, 2010 7:09 PM BST
Call Gunny Cool
Report sintonian • October 4, 2010 8:47 AM BST
Gun/FFT, I was under the impression you thought the price was a bit short .. but then I realised you meant in the ante-post market. well done.
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