Nationalism

Dont know YBM, his maiden runs dont look that special and im wondering that it was the soft ground which brought out the improvement(slow time beating a oss that didnt have that much form on easy ground) or whether he is a typical Gosden improver in the Autumn

Dont think id be punting at that price to find out and the money could be that the Cumani animal wont go(i actually e mailed Cumani in June and asked him to run it in the race as i thought he was better at 9f)

He knows a bit more than me though...........

A bit late with this one Kirk - it's been favourite for ages The Racinpost website has a TV preview from a week or two back and they tipped it strongly at 12/1 whicb probably started the ball rolling.

Been further shortened today because Cumani all but ruled out Forte Dei Marmi.

Got an obvious chance though and with a decent draw could see it being 7/2 on the day.

If it wasn;t for the trainer .. I doubt people would be backing this horse.

Every winner of the Cambridgeshore going back 2000 years has had at least 5 starts .. not only do you need class to win this you need the experience. Is this horse ready for the rough and tumble of a Cambridgeshire ?

Think people are getting carried away with the connections, tbh.

20/1 was freely available after his most recent win.

AP betting is all about forming you own opinion and acting on in.......quickly.

You don't half have to be quick now as well

Very true Ben. Under 5 minutes would be my suggestion - quicker if possible. Every year I end up backing a shed-load of non-runners but over a period I figure it's worth it.

Antepost is about acting quickly however it very much depends on the race. Handicaps especially.

..you shouldnt go in too early imo or even touch some of them as connections are way ahead of you short term compared to long term Group / Graded races .. each to their own of course.

If he wins,he will become only the fourth horse in the last 29 years to defy a major stat.

Would that be having experience of Newmarket, Pipedreamer??

am i missing something..how will this get in..

Already in

No Zilzal,you need proof of a horses ability to handle the hurly-burly,e.g.Wassl was well fancied for the Derby,ran badly.After he won the Irish Derby trainer John Dunlop was asked if he had any idea as to why he disappointed at Epsom."Oh" he replied to the soon to be speechless interviewer "We found out that he doesnt like big fields".
As simple as that, like for like.

Pipedreamer, I cant remember Wassl winning Irish Derby thought he was a miler through and through. Have backed Nationalism myself ante post more on the profile and seeming confidence behind the horse rather than pure form. The current good form of the Gosden yard and record in the race is a bonus.

pipe...fairly similar to your namesake no?

although think you had run in bigger fields....i dont see that being a problem for him though

Tartan Gigha usually comes alive when he's racing over 9f, looks like the same pattern as last year on his CV, might grab a bit of the 66-1 ew

Didnt run as bad as his finishing position indicates last sat, was bang there around 2f out

Nationalism wont be winning any cambridgeshire,gosden used to have a certain horse called "halling" in the yard going to try and win a 2nd cambridgeshire with,till dettori rode it work and told godolphin this is a group 1 horse buy it out of the yard now....The rest is history!!! All about opinions i know and good luck to any backers of the horse but from what i have been told about the horse,he wont be winning no cambridgeshire.

Surely the better Gosden Hoss is Taqleed?

For the STAT buffs this horse fails a few trends,fwiw.

Personally think he is almost favourite due to the trainer, which is understandable.Nice for those on at 20/1 like tRev but 7/1 now is naughty imo.

Wassl,i may have the wrong name,i'll go check.The quote is correct,and valid.Like Pedrillo,you dont prep a horse for this race by running it at Goodwood,[unless you already have proof of ability on tracks like Newmarket,i.e. Dallas].
I may be wrong but everyone was putting up Charm School last year without a mention of the fact that Gosden like his father Towser likes to farm the Nov Handicap.The owner of Nationalism,had Sign Of Hope second in the Brittannia a few years back,he sent it to race in America where the faster gallop would suit the horse.
I suppose if Nationalism was such a type as this he would be racing in America by now,unless of course the plan is to sell it on for a price after he hoses up?. Nice horse,not value tho.

If it had come up soft at HQ Charm School probably would have won last year's Cambridgeshire. I actually think the going is vital for Nationalism and being by Pivotal he will want some dig (yes, I know he's won on g/f). Given the ongoing dry spell this looks unlikely at this stage.

Dont recall Pivotal showing up in winners pedigree for these type of races,so 7f sire?,dam won over 10 weakened over 12,suppose dams sire boosts the stamina angle a bit but hardly ideal.

very weak in the market at the momen , layed at 15, maybe someone backing thier own bets ?

My forecast price of 7/2 is not looking too far out now

4s everywhere

wassl won t'oreesh 2000 iguanas 1983.

4/1 rapidly disappearing. Class act. Should win imo

price is too short - a low draw will likely scupper his chances of winning.

giving a lot of weight to some decent horses as well.

how can it go any shorter against 30+ runners?

when everyone says a horse can't lose, that is exactly when it does!!

when everyone says a horse can't lose, that is exactly when it does!!



er...think there's more to the game than that statement tbh

Seems a awful lot of confidence behind this animal, must have shown something special at home because the bare bones of the form doesnt make it a 7/2 shot here.

Im on Steele Tango quite big at 40-1, its fallen well for him as he was dropped to 103 just before the weights come out, after his run at Newbury with Tazees has shown him to be virtually the same animal as last autumn and with a 5lb claimer on it could be argued that hes 11lb well in.
His Course form is excellent as is the distance for him, i think it reads 1412 and in better company, ok he's not proven in a big field but that is taken into the price and still at 25-1 hes worth a ew poke imo

Ive had a saver on Tartan Gigha at 66-1 but feel he may not turn up

I think this horses price is shortening because of the anticipated ground.  Looks a good lay to me at 7/2.

Zil

Couldn't agree more re. Steele Tango

Has been running well against higher rated animals this year yet his handicap mark has reduced
Back to arguably his favourite course since first time out run in Group 3 in April
The booking of a very capable 5lb claimer is the icing on the cake for me here

price is too short - a low draw will likely scupper his chances of winning.

giving a lot of weight to some decent horses as well.

how can it go any shorter against 30+ runners?

when everyone says a horse can't lose, that is exactly when it does!!


Drawn 3 - a f*cking disaster for backers @ 7/2 - it was too short be cause the draw hadn't been made, which is the point I was trying to make!!


I will be surprised if it wins from that draw.

It was a saver bet for me, so now I am more than happy with my horse who got fortunately got a good draw

Facts Joined: 05 May 03
Replies: 3287 28 Sep 10 19:36   


when everyone says a horse can't lose, that is exactly when it does!!



er...think there's more to the game than that statement tbh



Drawn 3 - a f*cking disaster for backers @ 7/2 - it was too short be cause the draw hadn't been made, which is the point I was trying to make!!


I will be surprised if it wins from that draw.

It was a saver bet for me, so now I am more than happy with my horse who got fortunately got a good draw

Some very short memories on here. Lets go back just 2 weeks to Ayr.......

Bronze Cup - Conclusive proof that a high draw is essential. Single figures might as well stay at home.

Silver Cup - 1st and 2nd drawn in single figures. Oh my.

and what finally happened? The best horse won the Gold Cup - as he probably would have from any stall between 1 & 26.

Not really the same thing DD- there isn't much doubt that they'll stay far side tomorrow, in which case being drawn on the wide outside is not helpful. In the case of Ayr the fields were always going to split and we were trying to guess which side would be favoured.

If youre right about all 30+ runners heading for the far side there are going to be some major traffic problems for anything drawn medium to high not ridden up with the pace. From that perspective I could even argue that from stall 3 at least Nationalism should avoid much of the trouble     but I wont in case anyone takes it seriously.

Anyway if nothing else the inevitable market drift tomorrow will enable those who rightly decry his current price to get on at something nearer double figures should they wish.

dont think all will go far side...one group far side..another smaller group running down the middle...and one on his own standside

Funny that the jocks today are steering clear of the far side rail.

Nothing seems to want to come stands side today so unless the hevay rain thats due in the next few hours changes things I'd expect them to form one big group middle to far side (a bit like in the 2,000 Guineas in May) - though being on the low side of the group may definitely be a disadvantage so I can see Natinalism drifting further.

Interesting that the going stick suggests the stands side is quicker but no one's had a go at it, stalls far side probably don't help though, will be worth looking to see what happens here in this bigger field.

I thought that Ben, this is the second time in two weeks that the stick has said one thing one say and then the opposite

One Day*

Yes, a strange one, maybe it's just fresher ground because they're not running on it and it's not getting cut up, could be interesting come tomorrow, those sales races will help at least..

Well that consolation Cambridgeshire race has thrown the cat among the pigeons - maybe stands side is the place to be