cape blanco will destroy workforce

dwm 767 - I agree with you . French and english group 1's are much stronger then what you see in Ireland. You just have to focus on the eclipse and the prix ganay to be aware of this.

dwm767     Joined: 07 May 06
Replies: 84 17 Sep 10 08:43 
Races in Ireland are poor quality in comparison to UK & French racing so Cape Blanco isn't anything special!

Are you been serious?

The overall standard of horse in Ireland is much higher and the racing is far more competitive

dwm767 Joined: 07 May 06
Replies: 84 17 Sep 10 10:00 
On the whole though I still think it's pretty weak! Last years was obviously very good, but this years was basically an Aiden O'Brien stable gallop!

So Twice Over a multiple Group 1 winner in England was 3rd beaten 51/2 lths in that stable gallop so what does that say about the Group Ones Twice Over has won in the UK then.

ROFL at the Irish Champion Stakes been a weak race over the years simply clueless!

Agree that Cape Blanco is the best 3 year old colt in Europe over middle distances.

If irish racing is so much better than why do all the Irish watch UK races, yet many of us don't watch irish racing much ?....look at the last irish race i watched, a sprint finishing like a grand national !

lol^ cape blanco is no doubt a very good horse on his day. you cant really write workforce off after 4 runs tho can you?

worldhustler

the ante post forum caters for all/

However an oaf that turns up with a very silly claim, entirely unsubstantiated by a whiff of reason or logic tends to stand out.

I am sure you can do a bit better.

Hahaha, you absolute jokers! Before Cape Blanco this year; SP's of Irish Champion Stakes winners...
2009 - Sea The Stars - 4/6
2008 - New Approach - 8/13
2007 - Dylan Thomas - 8/15
2006 - Dylan Thomas - 13/8

Hmmm, big odds, obviously very competitive, obviously tricky to pick the winner of this race! **** sake, the Irish Champion Stakes usually contains one good horse and a pile of ****, as these odds reflect! Rip Van Winkle would have won this year had the race not come so soon after York!

RVW has not run a single race this year within 7 lbs of his best form last year.

I don't know the point you are naking but RVW is not at all a good one to choose to make it.

My point is that in the Irish Champion Stakes, in recent years there has always been a very short price favourite, and that is because it's a Group One race which is targeted to increase the stud value of a horse by adding another Group One victory to it's CV! Rip Van Winkle is not as good this year as he was last, but owners are not stupid, they knew he wouldn't have to be at his brilliant best to win this race which is weak! Unfortunatly they came across a better horse on the day, for whatever reason...BUT CAPE BLANCO IS NOT IN ANYWAY, SHAPE OR FORM THE BEST THREE YEAR OLD IN EUROPE/THE WORLD!!

dwm767 you're either taking the p1ss or very stupid.
multiple group 1 winners in all those races.

You're a simpleton. So to you a Group One is a Group One, whatever the quality of the race? Are you a bloodstock agent?

By your thinking the Irish Champion Stakes is as good as the Arc!? They're both Group One's at the end of the day! Bullshit!

eh? a group 1 full of group 1 winners is a group 1 ffs!
and the irish champion is up there with the best races in europe. you're the simpleton my friend.

dwm767 appears to have this game by the bollox

You cant write Workfoce off - the Maestro will pull it off yet again.

I don't think it was the strongest Champion,I also think the race was set up for Rip Van Winkle,who has shown he wants a strong pace,thing is Cape Blanco was given the job as pacemaker that day but Johnny Murtagh who can imo misjudge pace had RVW too far of the pace expecting Cape Blanco to come back,Cape Blanco never stopped and was away from then the ground you could say did not help RVW but I reckon RVW's jockey was as much to blame as connections underestimating Cape Blanco's ability.

mightymoyes - I apologise, I'm afraid you are a complete simpleton!
Just because a race is given the grading of 'Group One' it does not mean it is a good race!
Take football; the Carling Cup is considered a major competition, but in reality it's a two bob competition which many teams take little interest in! A football manager can win the Carling Cup 10 times, and his CV will say 'ten time major competition winner', but it's a major competition on paper only!
Take boxing; take the David Haye vs. Audley Harrison fight - Harrison could land one punch on David Haye, knock him out and win a World title. Audley Harrison will then be called a World Champion, but does this mean he's good? No - it means he was given an opportunity and took it!
Now, let's look at this year's Irish Champion Stakes won by Cape Blanco; the remainder of the field:
2nd - Rip Van Winkle - Treated with kid gloves all season long, then asked to run three races in the space of six weeks - a very good animal but not fully tuned to win the race.
3rd - Twice Over - Beaten by Rip Van Winkle at York in what was a very hard race which took a lot out of the pair. A two time Group One winner, but what were the races; last season's Champion Stakes, a race which comes at a time many of the runners have had their season (i.e. Fame and Glory), and the Eclipse at Sandown - another poor Group One of poor quality, this year if nothing else; Sri Putra finished 2nd!!
4th - Beethoven - Yes a Group One winner, but again look at the race he won! The only thing to come out of last year's Dewhurst and prove himself to be top quality was Dick Turpin!
5th - Sea Lord - A handicapper, and winner of a Group Three!
6th - Famous Name - Never won a Group One race!
So, I think you'll agree, this year's Irish Champion Stakes was not of great quality. Cape Blanco's other Group One win came in the Irish Derby - a race which featured such superstars are Midas Touch (who has proved needed further) - Jan Vermeer (no comment) - Monterosso - At First Sight (a pacemaker) and a host of other decent but nothing special runners! Therefore, despite winning two Group One races this season, Cape Blanco has not proved himself the best three year old in Europe, which was the original point I was trying to make! There are good Group One's and bad Group One's, the same way there are good major football tournaments and bad major tournaments, there are good world title boxing bouts, and bad world title boxing bouts! Just because a race is a Group One doesn't mean it's a good race, and just because a horse has won a Group One race doesn't make it a good horse! Explore further into things, don't be ignorant.

I have said this many times Workforce WILL NOT WIN ANOTHER RACE!!!!

What kind of ignorant statement is that? ^

Exactly why is that an ignorant statement? Recent record of Stoute Derby winners has been exceptional hasn't it? Workforce is apparently always burning up the gallops but has put in one performance of note on a track that horses either perform on or not!! His HYPE far out way his achievements.Had he been a Ballydoyle animal you and others on here would be saying pretty much this would you not?

"Had he been a Ballydoyle animal you and others on here would be saying pretty much this would you not? "


Not really considering people still back RVW

Workforce needs a winters breaks. The Derby has left it's mark and Stoute can get him to win the Arc on the back of his KG run it would be a training performance akin to what Paul Nicholls did for Denman's 2nd Hennessy, imvho.

* if stoute

teflontom     19 Sep 10 10:21 
Exactly why is that an ignorant statement? Recent record of Stoute Derby winners has been exceptional hasn't it? Workforce is apparently always burning up the gallops........

Well I think everyone knows that last statement to be completely untrue.....

I simply think that Workforce is another recent Derby winner who will prove not to have been the best horse in the race or anywhere near the best of his age.He acted on the track several others did not.Sir Percy won the Derby a few years back but Dylan Thomas who was third I believe turned out to be a much superior animal!!! I wouldn't want to back Workforce against Cape Blanco even though Cape Blanco does not appear to be a true 12 furlong specialist.

They will never meet again in any case, CB will race exclusively at 10f from now on, not only is it his best trip, but it also happens to be the most commercially rewarding.

why the recent strong support for CB in the Arc then if your 10f statement is correct !

What support for CB ?

Don't know about the support but O'Brien has already said they're looking to run both in the Arc.

I think he's a fascinating contender, and have backed him accordingly. I don't like reading races backwards, but my nagging doubt
is how ordinary he was made to look by Harbinger in the King George. Big difference I know between Ascot in July and Paris in October,
but there has never been much suggestion that Cape Blanco ran markedly below form as well as Workforce. That said, he was coming
off a poor run at Chantilly, so it isn't beyond the bounds of possibility that he was still "on his way back" as it were. Fingers crossed,
because I am in the minority in believing he's much better suited by 12 furlongs over 10.

I think he'll run in the Champion Stakes, O'Brien acknowledges he's better at 10f and they have F&G for the Arc. Rip runs on Saturday, why race these horses against each other when one could keep them apart, I'd be very surprised if CB shows up in Longchamp. I'm not completely up to date on quotes but I'd guess O'Brien said something to the effect it was under consideration like he does about everything. I'd imagine the money has come due his impressive performance at leopardstown rather than anything else

Here's what i think they will do


Cape Blanco - Champs stakes & BC Classic

RVW - QEII & BC Mile

F&G - Arc & BC Turf

It's no surprise that O'Brien said the horse is better over 10f, it gives him a nice excuse for the defeat in the KG and the less impressive win in the Irish Derby, also it helps to reinforce his stud value. Yes they've got F&G for the Arc but his performances this year have been no better than last season, he's been better prepared for the race this time but I doubt they see him as nailed on, giving wfa to some decent French 3yos. On the other hand they have a 3yo who would be going into the race on the back of the best performance of its career, form a bit stronger than anything shown by the French 3yos. The horse is already proven at the trip (even if some feel he's better at shorter). If CB shows his usual sparkle leading up to the race it's a no brainer.

personally, I think the level of form he has shown at 10f is much higher, he's out of a sprinter and I would actually agree with AOB when he says he gets 12f on guts. He is a very quick horse. He even has an entry in the QE2 on Saturday, I don't think they have any intention of ever running him over 12f again. It isn't as commercially rewarding as the alternative options and I'd be astounded if he wasn't outstayed by something.

Racing handily over 9 of ten furlongs is the way to go with him

The level of form of his last race is higher than any of his other form, including his York win at 10f, so it's very possible that he's just an improved horse, regardless of the trip.

Possible, but there are few enough horses that show his speed and stay 1m4f well, not sure if the way that French races are run will neccessarily suit him either. I think he's a ten furlong specialist

I wouldn't hold to much in his QE2 entry,have we all forgotten about Galileo's entry in the July Cup?It's all Ballydoyle's bull-muck they are always pretending they have "so much natural speed",hype for their next job,they must think breeders are as thick as muck!

This colt stays 12f well - and showed it in both the Irish Derby and the KG.

Did he stay in the KG?

YES!

Did he stay in the KG?

Of the horses who raced behind him in the KG only Harbinger improved his position relative to Cap Blanco so yes he stayed very well.

Agree with PD the QEII entry is a bluff - part of Ballydoyle's "Listen Ritchie this horse has so much speed" marketing strategy.

I don't think he ran on past much in the Irish Derby, tbh, Jan Vermeer possibly didn't stay, I don't rate Monterosso and I believe that he is just intrinsically a better horse than Midas Touch and that he would beat that horse at any distance below 1m4f. AOB is right he gets it on guts, he just plugged on at the Curragh as he did in the King George except this time he wasn't racing against garbage. I don't think he'd win the Arc even if he showed up. One could reasonably say he stays it but he is better at 1m2F. This horse has a high cruising speed and is a 1m2f grinder, thats where he's best left. Remember New Approach in the Champion Stakes this lad could do the same if allowed line up.

CB is another Vision d'Etat. Good enough to win at 12f but all his best performances at 10f. Would CB supporters argue that VD'E could put up a PB running in the Arc? Don't think so.

Sandown, only his latest 10f performance was his best, unless you believe Workforce was anywhere near top form at York?

Even on a line through the time compared to Sariska at York, he comes off slightly worse than her. I think it can be safely said his latest run was better than anything Sariska ever did. Maybe he will prove to be better at 10f but a lot is being assumed here on the basis of flimsy evidence.

Cape Blanco got 2 big negatives for the Arc: patently obvious he is better at 10f than 12f and secondly not been trained for the race. Been on the go since April/May, had no break and he is no See The Stars.

Doesn't look good for Fame And Glory if Coolmore running Cape Blanco as well, the scattergun approach only comes out when they don't fancy any 1 particular runner, unless they think they need a pacemaker. And clearly neither of these 2 are pacemakers.

Pedrobob, why is it patently obvious?

O'Brien ran 4 the year Dylan Thomas won, admittedly 2 were pacemakers.

Figgis, apart from own figs suggesting his best 2 performances have been in the Dante and the Irish Champion:

1.his tank looked to have run dry in the Irish Derby where his class got him through against the likes of Midas Touch who he surely has a greater superiority than 1/2 length, and Monterosso just 3 lengths. I rated this win below his Dante and Irish Champion wins, and he was all out (and probably decelerating) at the Curragh, whereas still running on strongly at the end of the 10f events.

2. in the King George, he finished only 12 lengths in front of the complete non-stayer Confront, who has been well beaten twice since. Confirming to my eyes that those behind HArbinger were all, to some degree, below par. Cape Blanco still clocked a fair figure, 2-3lbs above his Irish Derby win, but still below his 10f wins.

3. this must be the first time I can remember that the Dante winner (and one apparently staying on strongly) ducked Epsom for the French Derby. This seems to suggest that O'Brien always had doubts about this horse lasting a fast run 12f. When we look back with hindsight at what O'Brien sent to Epsom (At First Sight, hastily prepared Jan Vermeer and Midas Touch), it's amazing that O'Brien never sent the best of the four, Cape Blanco, to Epsom, for the prize that the Coolmore breeding operation treasure the most. All that said with hindsight of course, and maybe they never considered Cape Blanco the best of the group at the time.

Pedrobob, I agree he was below par in the KG but he went there after a hard race at the Curragh. His Dante win was a good few pounds below his latest effort, with not a great deal of difference between that and his Irish Derby win. Don't you think he might just have improved since? It's many years ago now, but I remember Suave Dancer putting up a similarly improved performance in the Irish Champion.

Having watched the Irish Derby video a few times, it was hardly a case of CB cantering all over them at the 10f pole and then just scraping home over the last 2f, he was already being asked for an effort at that stage.

I think the Aga Khans horse will win the Arc he does'nt invest in rubbish.

definitely agree Cape Blanco improved last time, by around 6lbs. Guess the question then is will this be maintained over 12f?

As you pointed out, he had a hard race at the Curragh, and yes, can also agree that may have required longer time to recover than was allowed before the King George. But can't get out of my mind the way he struggled home at the Curragh (where I thought he would win) against clearly inferior rivals, who he would surely beat further over 10f. The likes of Midas Touch and Monterosso have won at 10f themselves this season, but they wouldn't be in the same league as Rip, Twice OVer etc who were beaten 6-7 lengths last time, though admittedly they themselves looked below par and the jocks may have been asleep letting Heffernan loose up front.

I have his latest win 11lbs better than anything he did before, so while I'm not ruling out it was a return to 10f that helped the improvement, I'm more inclined to believe he's just improved anyway, regardless of the distance. I also think that instead of excuses being made for those behind him last time, the way he was ridden would have been to their advantage and he might even be capable of running a pound or two quicker if ridden with more restraint(which surely he will be if running in the Arc). I'm not too worried about him not aving a break, as his latest improvement is so big. My only concern would be that he's not recovered in time, which sometimes isn't apparent on the home gallops, but if they're happy enough with him then I'll certainly be backing him.

My only concern would be that he's not recovered in time, which sometimes isn't apparent on the home gallops, but if they're happy enough with him then I'll certainly be backing him.

V.Strange statement imo

What's strange about it?

Figgis

The problem with CB's case for winning the Arc is that he put up best performance (+11 lbs on your figs) using tacics over 2f shorter that if used in the Arc would see him not even being placed let alone winning. So your best bet is that it is a slowly-run Arc with him using his speed at the end. The problem is that this year a number of the probables are proven stamina horses (F&G, Behkabad, Workforce) and with their connections its likely that a strong pace will be on. If left for a very late run he will find a few others (Sarafina, youmzain) also being ridden that way and luck in running will be needed.I suspect that Planteur will aslo be ridden to come late as there is a suspicion that he doen't quite get the trip when up with the pace.On balance, his odds should be double figs and his price maybe 15.0 ish.

Figgis, just rechecked, I had 9lbs improvement on previous best, so nearer your fig. Gl if you supporting him, still hoping that Workforce will show his true colours on the day.

Sandown

Do you really believe it was the tactics employed that enabled him to run to that mark?

And surely the luck in running will apply to any of the held up horses (even more so imo as they're not as good as CB) so should they also be double figures?

Figgis

He may have improved - in fact I'm sure he did. But that just makes it more likely that 10f ridden that way were factors in that improvement, and it wasn't just about physical improvement.

Soft ground would be against CB because he has a clear-cut straight legged top of the ground action and would be a further considerable doubt added to distance concerns. Why is AOB running him if he is fully satisfied with F&G and given that the Champion Stakes in 2 weeks is a better option?

Sandown, French descriptions of soft ground very rarely match up with our descriptions. CB handled yielding ground perfectly well last year, although obviously over a shorter trip. O'Brien ran SOF and Dylan Thomas in '07, with SOF being the more fancied and the mount of Murtagh. I'd say he's running them both simply because it's an opportunity too good to miss. In fact if he swerved the race with CB I'd be more inclined to oppose him in the Champion Stakes as I reckon it could only be because the horse wasn't showing the right signs.

Figgis

I certainly agree with your view about French ground descriptions and there is the fact that the 10 metres of saved ground against the far rail does help the ground to ride faster on the day but there is no denying that at present they have had a lot of rain, they consider it to be soft at present and there is plenty of rain forecast for the weekend. CB may have gone on softer ground in the past but if he is not better on fast ground then I'm a Dutchman!

I always wondered what happened to Van der Wheil!

je bent erg grappig

with a 20 horse field in prospect the draw is going to be crucial if youre 10 or above you will have a mountain to climb.

Imo Workforce is still an unknown. You can't call him a superstar and you can't write him off. He's a very good derby winner that was probably not nearly ready to take on the likes of Harbinger in the KG. That run was too bad to be true. We shall see. I hope he runs just to see if he is capable of putting in a derby like performance again.

It's just and outside chance, 14-1(ridiculous price currently) imo but workforce was always fancied to give his best running on ground with a bit of give, given his running style. Not a dark horse at 6-1 but a dark horse all the same.

Figgis, Cape Blanco failed to produce a speed fig of note when winning in soft ground at 2, including the Group races he won, they were well below par. If the ground is genuine soft at Longchamp, think his chances have disappeared, as mentioned previously think a 7-8lbs better horse at 10f and just won't see the trip out at this level.

If Stoute lets Workforce take his chance after all the deliberation, think that will be a big hint in what could be a substandard Arc. George Rimaud has played down the chances of the French including Behkabad. Forgive Workforce the King George blip, and he would be a very short price fav here coming off the back of record breaking Derby win. No other horse in this field has achieved anything remotely like that and just praying not a one-hit wonder.

Pedrobob, Sea the Stars failed to produce a decent speed figure as a 2yo on any ground, although his debut time was promising. You might be right about CB but his 2yo performances on soft ground don't tell us for certain.

Pedrobob, I also believe that Workforce's Derby time was misleading if taken at face value, it was ok but hardly great, Behkabad and Planteur have run slightly faster imo.

Anyone believe like me that Cape Blanco is being used as a pacemaker for Fame and Glory? I can see a Melbourne Cup scenario as the two go to the front early with Murtagh committing at the top of the straight (before Planteur comes and chases him home)..

Figgis, not sure how you can describe Workforce's Derby ok as not great. He broke the track record and even giving allowance for the ground being officially Good To Firm (watering always ensures anything but lightning ground), and even further allowance for the rail presumably being moved to innermost alignment (but would be the same for most Derbies?), time was over 2 seconds faster than any race run over the trip on my records since 2001.

Pedrobob, I know what you're saying and can easily see how it can be interpreted as such. I still maintain that there is occasionally a race on a card that is out of step with the others by being much quicker. This is hard to prove but I'm positive it's true from my results. It's only my opinion but that is what I believe happened with this year's Derby. Workforce looked impressive due to the winning distance but nothing about the overall way he ran against ordinary opposition was in keeping with an outstanding time performance imo. If At First Sight had gone on to prove himself better than I thought I would've revised my opinion, but he hasn't.

I mean out of step where conditions are more conducive to a faster time, rather than the abilities of the horses.

yes, agree At First Sight finishing 2nd having managed to kick away from the field holds the form down.

But I thought the overhead shot showing Workforce taking many lengths out of the rest of the field in just space of 100 yards after Tattenham Corner was visually very impressive, and if someone could do a sectional time of that part of the race, think would show him to be an outstanding horse.

Things not looking good for Cape Blanco or Fame and Glory for that matter. Both are in danger of not running if the weather deteriorates.

When you hear things like that it doesn't say much for their chances if they do turn up as the ground is very very soft already.

Total confusion at the moment and betting anything has to be risky.

Rondetto - I take it you rode the course this morning as how else would you know the ground is already 'very very soft'?

06Jun10 Chantilly   ( 11 Sft ,RPR105 )

We had a nice position turning into the straight. He stayed on but didn't quicken - Johnny Murtagh; This horse loves fast ground and Johnny just said he didn't pick up in the ground - Aiden O'Brien


04Sep10 Leopardstown   ( 10 Gd ,RPR127 )

We've always thought that today's trip is probably his ideal distance. Seamie gave him a great ride. He let him get into that big rhythm and the horse showed all his class and determination.-A P O'Brien, trainer


Given AOB's comment above,still don't understand why AOB is running the horse over 12f on soft ground when the 10f Champion stakes is his race, or even the BC?

Sandown, probably because O'Brien tailors his comments to suit the occasion?

Figgis


Are you sure your glasses are not just a little rose-tinted? The jockey said he didn't like the ground at Chantilly. His 10f RPR's are best at 10f. The sectionals show that he doesn't quite get home over 12f. I'd be surprised if he even runs.

Bekherbad for me, he won't chase the pace and will come home best with Planteur following him in again, think there might be a few short runners in this at the trip, the likes of Lope De Vega and Cape Blanco, F&G should place if the pace is quick enough. They might be sacrifising Cape Blanco to win an Arc and save the year to an extent, if CB goes of at 5's I might lay him.

They need a KG, Irish champion or Arc to justify keeping F&G in training. If he doesn't win this weekend they've just got another heavy ground Irish Derby winner ala SOF, anyone who backs F&G this weekend at least knows that they have a horse running for its life and that there is no other day.

His RPR's are best at 10f

Sandown
I haven't backed him yet and even if I do it's not a bet that I'll be lumping on, so I have no reason to view him anything other than realistically. Do you really believe most trainer and jockey excuses for their horse when it runs deplorably bad? Didn't the Stoute camp say the ground was too fast for Workforce after the KG? I have to say that is absolute boll0cks after the evidence of Epsom and there are countless other examples. I take no notice of RPR's and don't believe you use them seriously. The evidence of your sectionals will only be valid if you have a proper handle on the merits of the overall times. In my view you're wrong to rate the Dante much higher than the Irish Derby.

You may be right about him not being able to repeat the Irish Champion performance over 12f. Even I have doubts about whether he'll be ready to do it again so soon, whatever the distance. However, I also feel there are doubts about runners shorter than him in the betting, including the fav, so for me, if he runs, he offers better value.

Re the Irish Derby, I think CB would beat any of the horses in that at any trip on any ground, just an intrinsically better horse, I'm going to be embarassed if he wins on Sunday

workforce has no chance if it comes up fast at longchamp .
the fast ground was his undoing in the king george.
stoute has already stated he won the derby in spite of the going.
cape blanco has no chance whatever the going had too hard a race last time out.
the winner of the arc will come from one of the horses that has been laid out for it all season.i.e. behakabad   fame and glory  planteur etc.

I'm backing etc!! Dont fancy the other two!![;)]

lol.

TLP, in the Derby Workforce broke the track record in spite of the going? You must thing he'd be a pretty amazing horse then if he gets ground he likes?
Were Dylan Thomas and Sea The Stars laid out for the race iyo?

* think

Really strange decsion to run Cape Blanco on that ground - surely he'd have been favourite for the Champion Stakes and/or the Breeders Cup Turf.

is cape blanco still the best 3-y-0 in the world

teflontom     18 Sep 10 15:48 
I have said this many times Workforce WILL NOT WIN ANOTHER RACE!!!!
Masterminded     18 Sep 10 21:39 
What kind of ignorant statement is that? ^
teflontom     19 Sep 10 10:21 
Exactly why is that an ignorant statement? Recent record of Stoute Derby winners has been exceptional hasn't it? Workforce is apparently always burning up the gallops but has put in one performance of note on a track that horses either perform on or not!! His HYPE far out way his achievements.Had he been a Ballydoyle animal you and others on here would be saying pretty much this would you not?


In answer this is why it was an ignorant statement. You totally wrote a horse off from winning another race and it goes on to win the Arc.

So I was wrong!!! Not the first time and I am sure it wont be the last!!!

surely "outweigh" [;)]