Behkabad

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nicks work is free to anyone who cares to have a look so i don't see that there has been any harm

The finishing splits of the Vermeille were faster than the Niel because of the slower early pace in the fillies race.

It's free for anyone to look at grw123 but to post it here and not give him credit for it is a bit off.

? strange comment

i thought it was pretty obvious that i wasn't claiming this as my own. anyone who follows the forum on a regular basis will understand that mordin gets regular mention from myself and others, mainly because of his rather wacky but interesting views. besides anyone who knows me should surely know that i would never put in this much work[:p]

I don't see why there should be copyright issues if the site itself is free. why do people always try to create an argument where there isn't one? although i guess that's the internet for you, and the problem with free speech [smiley:crazy]

No problem with you posting it mp.
Just that the man who wrote it wasn't given credit for doing so by way of a link.

why does it matter?

i don't see why you are having a go at me all of a sudden. i'm one of mordin's biggest supporters on here and i'm always giving him the big up. he's just getting free advertising from me banging on about him all of the time.

besides. i really can't see why i need to provide a link? surely only a brain-dead idiot would think that i actually wrote that?

I wasn't having a go at all.

The reason you should post a link is because it's his material that he wrote for his site. The article was posted without any mention whatsoever about who wrote it. I knew who did and I assume most others would know just from the speed figures but I guess its just good etiquette to reference where it came from.

Mordin's figure for Behkhabad is way over the top. If you have been following Nick's column this year, you will know that he has been talking up the French middle distance 3yos all year as the best in Europe, so suspect the rating awarded to Behkabad is just Nick trying to back up his theory.

Will be very surprised if either Behkabad or Planteur win the Arc.

really? any reason other than nick likes it? can't have fame and glory at longchamp at all [smiley:crazy]

Will be very surprised if either Behkabad or Planteur win the Arc.

Why - what is your reasoning? If you don't think that they can win,fair enough, but they have some sort of chance if they run so what price do you make them? Which horses have a better chance and how do you price them?

pedrobob

One other point. Unless you price up a horse with an odds on chance, its true to say that no horse can be said to be a likely winner and it would be more accurate to say that he is a likely loser.So, in saying that you do not expect either to win you are only saying in another form what the market is saying which is combined they have 2/1 against chance of winning. So your opinion is not adding much, is it?

I would not be surprised if one of the two won. However at the prices on offer others make more appeal, given the overall quality of their proven form on the racecourse.

This year's Arc looks very weak to be fair and won't take an awful lot of winning! Couldn't back Behkabad at his current odds, I think there is better each way value further afield! Duncan anyone!?

Sandown, based on my own ratings compilation, Behkabad or Planteur would not be good enough to win a normal Arc.

But have to backtrack slightly as have to agree with a few others that it looks a weak contest this year.

Fame And Glory would rate better than Behkabad/Planteur with me, as would a back to form Rewilding.
But Workforce was an outstanding Derby winner in a very fast time, and he if was back to that level, would win very easily.
I see St Nicholas Abbey listed in the betting quite short with some. If he was anything like he was at 2, then would also consider strongly.

Fame And Glory would rate better than Behkabad/Planteur with me, as would a back to form Rewilding.


11th April 2010 (level weights)

1st Planteur
2nd Rewilding btn 1.5 l

Why would Rewilding be a better bet that Planteur and Behkabad?

"I see St Nicholas Abbey listed in the betting quite short with some. If he was anything like he was at 2, then would also consider strongly. "




I fail to see the connection between the RP trophy and the Arc

pedrobob

based on my own ratings compilation, Behkabad or Planteur would not be good enough to win a normal Arc.

Using RPR figs the average Arc winner over the past 20 years has run to 130 showing an average 3.5 improvement over previos PB.

Behkabad was rated 128 and Planteur 127 for the Niel. Both, therefore, are capable of winning an average Arc. There chance is obviously relative to the competition, all of whom have quite big questions to answer. F&G has run 10 times since his PB. Sarafina has to improve 5'bs plus fillies allowance to get to Behkabad and the trip may not be her optimum. Workforce flopped last time and it is a tremendous ask to win the Arc without a prep. Cape Blanco is probably better at 10f. Youmzain is getting on and has a low win%.

I would conclude that this in average year and thereforebut the Niel first 2 are the ones with potential to improve further. whether they can be considered value at the current prices is a separate issue.

I pointed out on the Arc thread that those RPRs are total guesses from the Post, no justification for them whatsoever imo, based on a weight rating of course.

yeah the opposition to planteur and behkabad looks pretty poor to me, compared to what they might expect in a normal arc.

workforce- was absolutely dismal in the king george, before that yes he had ran a very fast time in the derby, but is that so surprising given the crazy pace they went in the race and the lightning fast ground?

fame and glory has done nothing wrong this year, but essentially he lacks a burst of speed- always feel he will be vulnerable around this track to something with a late kick.

st nick abbey i can't have at all, youmzain is an ageing dog that hasn't won for several millenia, and as for rewilding, why would he even run given the trainer has already stated that he needs more time between his races?

Not much wrong with the Grand Prix de Paris form imo...

3rd Jan Vermeer beaten 5 lengths- only beat 2 lengths in irish derby
4th Goldwaki beaten 5 lengths- beaten 2 lengths in a group 2 next time given no chance by a slow pace & being held up
5th Lawspeaker beaten 8 lengths- wins a listed race next start
6th Ivory Land beat 15 lengths- wins a listed race next start

You could argue Workforces derby form is better but it looked like the obrien horses all ran below form in that race to me(bar the pacemaker) & Rewilding didn't handle the track. The race took alot out of him & I'd doubt he could reproduce the form.

Fame & Glory's 4yo form is not working out imo , people are just looking at his form through Sea The Stars rose tinted spectacles.

Celtic Son, have just rechecked my figs and agree yes Planteur is actually rated 2-3lbs better then Rewilding.

Sandown, fair summary, only part I would disagree with are the ratings awarded to Behkabad and Planteur. My point earlier was that Mordin awards high ratings not based on the actual evidence, but often to back up a theory or opinion (in this case that the French middle dist 3yos are far superior to others in Europe) that he has formed, and refuses to deviate from despite subsequent evidence proving to the contrary.

Not sure what each pt is worth on the Mordin scale, but this season he has awarded Workforce 41 for breaking the track record in the Derby, and Harbinger 42 for breaking the track record in the King George.

Given the history of those 2 races, difficult to see how his computer can come up with a figure of 45 for Behkabad and Planteur in the Niel. By awarding that figure, presumably Mordin is saying that the Niel 3rd Kidnapping ( winner of 3 Italian listed races), beaten 4 1/4 lengths, is nearly the same horse as Workforce and Harbinger? In reality, Kidnapping probably rates 14-15 lengths behind those Stoute horses, hence shows just how far Mordin has overassessed Behkabad/Planteur to back up his theory.

ben10

I pointed out on the Arc thread that those RPRs are total guesses from the Post, no justification for them whatsoever imo, based on a weight rating of course.

With the exception of Kidnapping they don't look unreasonable to me at all : Behkabad +4 Planteur +4  Victoire Pisa -5  Shamalgan -7.

So, you are left with Kidnapping raised +15 vs previous PB. That was only his 6th run so its not impossible given that the run came after 2 listed wins.

Don't see how you get to "total guesses"

Guess we have to wait to find out

Actually, you can easily say Jan Vermeer didn't get home in the ground, Lawspeaker has run to 101 on both his listed starts so perhaps ran to it here(which would put Behka on a paltry 114) and Ivory Land won a very poor Listed race last time out, only running to high double figures. All about opinions though

pedrobob

Wouldn't build a case around NM's ratings personally

ben10

One could but I wouldn't

ben10

I'm at cross purposes - ignore my last post

Ah I see, give me 5 minutes...

Right, not actually hard for me to argue that neither Victoire Pisa nor Shamalgan ran to form. Shamalgan ran a cracker last time running to 114 according to the post, no real argument there but this extra 2 furlong clearly stretches him as he's right there 2 furlong out and ends up fading tamely. I also think that Victoire Pisa shaped like a non stayer picking up very eyecatchingly turning in and looking a big danger before the others go away from him again, clear sign of not staying and I felt his pedigree backed this up pre-race. Kidnapping's clearly run a pb, no dispute there but given that the post thought he ran to 105 in Italy (I can't accurately assess it but Frankenstein recieved 24lbs off Estejo nto, including wfa, who's probably a solid 110 horse so 105+ can be argued easily)
So has Kidnapping found a stone, given the usual level of Italian horses I'd err on saying no, but would say it's fair to go 115. That leaves you with 121 on the winner which looks right to me and much more accurate.
The argument is did Behka and Planteur outstay the 4th and 5th or did they allow them to close and then use their class to kick on again. I think what I've said above has taken a bit of both and shows an improvement on the GPDP but not a massive one.

ben10

Ah, the collateral handicappers reasoning. Who ran to form, who didn't? Interpretation of who stayed and who didn't using collateral ratings as a base. Pedigrees brought into it, too. Pick 115 and say its fair. Why? Kidnapping has found a stone. Can't have, even though its possible.

Forgive me, but this is so much guess work.This is what I can tell you using sectionals.

First, Kidnapping quickened at the end of the race. He wasn't beaten imo because he didn't stay but because both Behkabed and Planteur quickened more. French racing nearly always results in horses quickening up and the day's trials were no exception.

On final time ratings Kidnapping ran to 105 on my figures but because of the way the race was run i.e.slow-fast - he can be credited with a higher rating. How much more? Well, I reckon 120. Which matches the RPR by coincidence.

Now for the front two. The race winner ran to 112 on final time. Now here's the bit where you can have a laugh.Because of the way that they quickened my formula rates  Behkabad as capable of producing 135 and Planteur 131.

You're welcome to tear that to shreds as its obviously speculative. But if you give me some credit for producing a proven formula (over 20 years)then you see how I arrive at higher figs.Incidently, on her Prix Diane run Sarafina is capable of running to 130 but she didn't reproduce that over 12f.Lack of fitness or stamina?

It's all good fun and beats picking horses by names, don't you agree?

Sandown, what did you rate Harbinger and Workforce for their wins this season?

Sandown

That seems a very high rating for Sarafina. I accept that her latest run was inconclusive and she may be capable of better than we've seen so far, but the Diane wasn't a very good renewal. I understand that if she finished the latter part of the race with a fast sectional you would rate her higher than the bare form. I agree that a fast final split can be a sign that a horse was capable of better given a more evenly run race but to me it seems you're reading what is a possibility and taking it as a probability.

pedrobob Joined: 27 Mar 06
Replies: 335 18 Sep 10 13:24   


Celtic Son, have just rechecked my figs and agree yes Planteur is actually rated 2-3lbs better then Rewilding.

Sandown, fair summary, only part I would disagree with are the ratings awarded to Behkabad and Planteur. My point earlier was that Mordin awards high ratings not based on the actual evidence, but often to back up a theory or opinion (in this case that the French middle dist 3yos are far superior to others in Europe) that he has formed, and refuses to deviate from despite subsequent evidence proving to the contrary.

Not sure what each pt is worth on the Mordin scale, but this season he has awarded Workforce 41 for breaking the track record in the Derby, and Harbinger 42 for breaking the track record in the King George.

Given the history of those 2 races, difficult to see how his computer can come up with a figure of 45 for Behkabad and Planteur in the Niel. By awarding that figure, presumably Mordin is saying that the Niel 3rd Kidnapping ( winner of 3 Italian listed races), beaten 4 1/4 lengths, is nearly the same horse as Workforce and Harbinger? In reality, Kidnapping probably rates 14-15 lengths behind those Stoute horses, hence shows just how far Mordin has overassessed Behkabad/Planteur to back up his theory.

^ good point actually

Here is a stat for you guys to digest which doesn't give Behkabad much chance of winning the Arc! In nearly 30 years no sire has won back to back Arcs!!! Enough reason to give him a swerve for me, even though stats are there to be broken!!!

Riverman was the last sire to win back to back Arcs (Detroit 1980 / Gold River 1981).

mythical prince

I am not in the least bit interested in mordin's ratings even though he has given a high rating to the Niel.

MrDinos
You are joking, aren't you? If not, its very sad.

Figgis
I've learned not to expect anything - horses may not improve for other reasons, tactics may not be changed. All I can say is that it takes a hell of a lot extra power and energy to accelerate and that demonstrates reserve energy

pedrobob
I rated Workforce capable of 134 on his Epsom run and Harbinger 128 for the KG. I expect that will upset a lot of people.

Sandown, I'm not joking!!!

Thanks for your thoughts Sandown.
Appreciate that what you are saying is that those ratings are what you think those horses are "capable" of, and have not necessarily achieved, an important distinction.

Can I ask what you think these horses have actually achieved on their best runs this season, as distinct from what you think they are capable of?

Behkabad
Planteur
Cape Blanco
Workforce
Harbinger
Sarafina

Sandown, interesting to hear how you break it down, I can't argue with your figures. What I took issue with is how the Post have come up with theirs, I just feel they're almost sensationalist and don't follow the 'conventional methods' they should be using to calculate them.
Also I didn't say Kidnapping didn't stay, in fact I think he stays very well! Which is why in a true run race I think he has run his race but there is no evidence his race is a 120 performance; it may well be but I feel the safer option is to cautiously rate the race at least 5lbs lower through him, I may be wrong but I see no evidence to the contrary as yet and it provides me with a nice line to take on the favourite as he looks over rated to me.
Interesting to read what you say about Sarafina, to me the run had all the hallmarks of a prep run, from the pacemaker running her own race to the easy ride given to her. I've always felt she will stay but accept it's still unproven however the price allows for room to manoeuvre which Behkabad perhaps doesn't have when I consider his (questionable imo) form.

Referring back to Mordin's article on Behkabad. He makes a number of highly dubious propositions.

He suggests that  Planteur's pacemaker set a searching gallop. Yet later on, also suggests that Behkabad/Planteur ran sub 12 secs in each of the final 2 furlongs on officially Soft ground, faster then the average furlong splits of typical Group class sprint races.
The ground was actually riding much quicker than Soft, it would have to be to justify Mordin's assertion that "Behkabad was really moving in the final quarter mile. He covered the penultimate furlong in 11.7 seconds and the final one in 11.9@

He also suggests that these 2 came home 1.6 secs ( "a monstrous eight lengths faster than Europe's top fillies" )quicker in the final 3 furlongs than Midday, even though Midday's race was run at a slower gallop. Have not checked myself, but an earlier poster on this thread refuted this and said Midday ran faster in the final 3 furlongs.

Mordin also states that this was the "best speed ratings I've awarded two horses in a race in years."
And that "take Behkabad away and Planteur would have won the Grand Prix de Paris by five lengths and this race by four - both in seriously fast time"

I would dispute strongly that the Grand De PAris was won in seriously fast time. It was an ordinary Group 1, the time no quicker than Rewilding achieved in the Voltigeur.

And finally Mordin goes on to justify why Rewilding would flop in the Arc after his hard run in the Voltigeur and why Behkabad/Planteur will run right up to their best after their gentle 2 furlong stroll in the park (for which he has just awarded the highest speed figure in years)...

Rewilding had to chase after a smart rival for a long part of the five furlong homestraight at York while Behkabad and Planteur only hooked up for a furlong and a half here. And while Rewilding had previously shown that he was best when freshened up that's not the case with either Behkabad or Planteur. The clincher is the sub 12 second final furlong here. Horses don't run that fast at the end of a race if they're tired.

Most likely both Behkabad and Planteur will be able to produce their best once more in the Arc. If they do my ratings suggest they're going to pull clear of all their opponents for the third time in a row and give us another fine exhibition of class. That's certainly the way I'll be betting. I see the straight forecast of Behkabad to beat Planteur in the Arc as a fabulous bet.

Behkabad or Planteur may well win the Arc, (but not if an in-form Workforce shows up), and even if they do, they certainly won't "pull clear".....

Don't buy it that Behkabad and Planteur are the Sunday Silence/Easy Goer of 2010 European 3 year old colts - they look pretty ordinary to me. I'd be interested to know where Mordin gets his sectional times from. Now Harbinger is retired the best middle distance horses in Europe are Cape Blanco, Sarafina, Midday and Workforce - who knows how many of these will even run in the Arc.

fwiw, the Niel time of Behkabad/Planteur, 2m 30.8 secs reads only 45th quickest of 84 Group races recorded around Longchamp's 1m 4f track in the last 10 years.

And if you ignore all races officially faster than Good ground, rates 8th quickest of 27 races on Good to Soft or worse.

6 of the 7 quicker times have been recorded in the last 3 years including:
Zambezi Sun/Schiaperelli (2008 Prix Foy 2m 28.8 )
Zarkava (2008 Arc - 2m 28.8)
Dylan Thomas (2007 Arc - 2m 28.5)
Cavalryman (2009 Grand Prix De Paris 2m 27.6)
Vision D'Etat (2008 Niel 2m 27.4)
Zarjava (2008 Vermeille 2m 26.0)

Now whilst you have to take a pinch of salt with going descriptions, rail realignments, French racing still manually hand timed (was certainly the case up to 2 years ago), Behkabad/Planteur's time in the Niel can only be considered average for a Group 1 at best, with 5 of the remaining 27 Group races run on worse then "Good" ground being Heavy,  1 on Very Soft, and 1 on Yielding, 3 on Good To Soft and 9 on similar Soft ground.

Even if comparing Behkabad's Niel time to those of the Arc wins of Zarkava and Dylan Thomas, still a full 9-10 lengths off that pair.

dylan thomas arc was run in very fast conditions i think about 4 course records went that day.
most jocks and trainers declared it was good to firm firm in places.
i think the official going report that day was good to soft.

Behkabad - the most underrated and under apprecaited horse in training imo. Should be 2/1 for the Arc - can't wait to see him do something special in 2 weeks

6 of the 7 quicker times have been recorded in the last 3 years including:
Zambezi Sun/Schiaperelli (2008 Prix Foy 2m 28.8 )- all times well under standard that day, officially g-s but fast imo
Zarkava (2008 Arc - 2m 28.8)- also all times under standard that day was g-s & was obviosuly a very good performance
Dylan Thomas (2007 Arc - 2m 28.5)- was good-soft again & most times under standard that day
Cavalryman (2009 Grand Prix De Paris 2m 27.6)- same again good - soft officially
Vision D'Etat (2008 Niel 2m 27.4)- same day as zambezi
Zarjava (2008 Vermeille 2m 26.0)- same day as zambezi & vision

None of these times were done in 'officially soft' conditions, either the standards are rating the ground faster than it is(do they use an average of the times of the distance without taking into account the often slow pace of races?) or the french are rating the ground slower than it is.

either way you have to rate it next to other races on the day & the neil was the best on final time & sectionals imo.

pedrobob

Appreciate that what you are saying is that those ratings are what you think those horses are "capable" of, and have not necessarily achieved, an important distinction.

your understanding of what  I am saying is spot on. All I would add is the qualifier "assuming that they are given a tactical ride which allows them to achieve an even pace."  Of course, this might never be possible if the horse must be ridden from off the pace.Think Dancing Brave in the Derby. Then there are the other key factors of ground, distance, fitness etc.

My ratings based on the final times for the bets performances of the horses you list are:

Workforce 129 Cape Blanco 119 Harbinger 123 Behkabad 114  Planteur 113 Sarafina 98

NB It's very rare for final time ratings to actually match collateral ratings which in effect are also an assumption of what the horse could achieve on the clock

Cheers Sandown, very interesting process you have there, will have to give it lot more thought, especially the sectional times which agree are highly indicative of a horse's class. Good luck with Behkabad. I read on the other thread what a good record you have in the Arc, so might have to follow you!

pedrobob

Thanks. I have a green book at A/P and Behkabad, Planteur and Sarafina are all good winners.

Nick Mordin on Behkabad and Planteur in the Niel : best speed ratings I've awarded two horses in a race in years..... Most likely both Behkabad and Planteur will be able to produce their best once more in the Arc. If they do my ratings suggest they're going to pull clear of all their opponents for the third time in a row and give us another fine exhibition of class. That's certainly the way I'll be betting. I see the straight forecast of Behkabad to beat Planteur in the Arc as a fabulous bet.

Everyone is entitled to opinions, but Nick has stuck his head on the line all season with the French 3yos being the best in Europe. Will he now revise his belief?

was given a poor ride although sarafina shouldve won imo.

Nick Mordin latest - still saying Workforce not the best, Behkabad bounced and that Planteur one of the best horses in the last decade

SOFT GROUND WON THE ARC FOR WORKFORCE

For the second year in a row we had a very strong early pace in the Arc. With the more widespread use of pacemakers I suspect this is a trend that will continue.

Unfortunately it was a rather rough race this year and you could argue that two or three horses might have beaten the winner WORKFORCE (43) with better luck in running. Personally I thought he was the winner on merit. He certainly clocked a very solid time that puts him well up there with most Arc winners.

It now seems clear that Workforce was asked to run once too often on a firm surface in the King George. He shows knee action and hits the ground too hard to be continually risked on firm going. The soft ground enabled him to bounce back to his Derby form in the Arc and put doubters like myself in their place.

This is a freakishly good year for three year olds. So the fact that I rate Cape Blanco, Rewilding, Planteur and Behkabad ahead of Workforce shouldn't be allowed to obscure the fact that he's an exceptional talent. In a normal year he'd have been regarded as a champion.

I can see why the connections of Workforce are considering the idea of running him in the Breeders' Cup Turf. The horse has shown that he can handle tight turns at Newbury and Goodwood so it's possible he'll be able to negotiate Churchill's seven furlong oval effectively. The trouble is there's only one chance in three or four of him getting the cut in the ground he surely now needs. If he were mine I wouldn't be risking it.

Runner up NAKAYAMA FESTA (43) engaged in a titanic struggle with the winner all the way through the final furlong and a half. He wasn't able to avoid traffic as he prefers and had to be taken up three furlongs out. But he had every chance to get by Workforce and just failed to do so.

I've noted before that Nakayama Festa is rather narrow and this means he's best fresh. There's a long enough gap to the Japan Cup (28th November) to ensure he recovers from this big effort. So he should have the opportunity to prove what his win in the Takarzuka Kinen suggested - namely that he's the best mile and a half horse in Japan.

SARAFINA (42) finished really well after betting impeded around the turn. I'd be rather keen on betting her in the Breeders' Cup Turf on this run.

BEHKABAD (41) moved well for a long way. But it soon became clear after turning in that he was going to have a tough time finding an opening. A wall of horses were blocking his way. He eventually got through too late and did not gain as much ground as his previous form suggested he might.

It seems to me that the very fast run Behkabad had in the Prix Niel took its toll and he 'bounced'.

I'm not that keen on the plan for Behkabad to go for the Hong Kong Vase. That race is just an afterthought prompted by his loss here, and big races tend to be won by horses that have been specially trained for them - like for example Cirrus des Aigles has been specially trained for the Hong Kong Vase. In addition three year olds don't tend to do well in the big international races.

On the plus side Behkabad has plenty of time to recover in time for Hong Kong, so perhaps he can do it. He's almost certainly got more ability than any horse he'll be facing there.

I suspected that FAME AND GLORY (40) might get into traffic problems because the downhill run to the straight at Longchamp forces horses to save energy and results in a near sprint finish to even the most strongly run races. Fame And Glory is a horse that lengthens rather than quickens and therefore looked likely to lack the acceleration to go with the principals in the closing stages or to escape trouble earlier.

As it turned out Fame And Glory took a bump from Duncan which cost him momentum and then couldn't quite go with the first four. He has to be worth a shot at the Breeders' Cup Turf now as many of the European horses that might beat him look set to stay away. If the ground turned up yielding or soft on the day it would be a big plus as that would not suit the big US hope Paddy O'Prado but would surely help Fame and Glory.

MARINOUS (40) showed he's competitive in this sort of company by finishing sixth after getting bumped. He's a nervous sort who's probably best when fresh so I imagine he'd go straight to Hong Kong if he takes in another race this year. Certainly next year he will have to be considered in the Dubai Sheema Classic when he goes to Dubai. His defeat of Redwood last time together with this performance suggest he's likely to be one of the top four or five contenders for that race.

VICTOIRE PISA (40) the other Japanese runner, is a great big long striding sort that looked unlikely to be suited to the sprint finish that Longchamp invariably produces. He did well to run close and keep on so well. The flatter track, longer homestraight and likely searching gallop in the Japan Cup will suit him better.

I think the jockey on PLANTEUR (35) was tied down by predictable instructions to stay ahead of Behkabad in the early stages. This might have seemed sensible in that Behkabad has shown he's got a superior turn of foot and used it to beat Planteur narrowly both times they'd met over a mile and a half before.

However, as was the case last year, the early pace was unsustainably fast. And I think without his instructions Planteur's jockey would surely have taken his cue from Behkabad when seeing that one drop back from the normal chasing position he adopts in second or third to be several lengths behind in fifth and sixth.

Behkabad's jockey could see the leaders were going a bit too fast early on and eased his mount back off the pace according. But Planteur's jockey made the error of chasing his pacemaker. It was noticeable too that running like this, and seeing plenty of daylight, prompted Planteur to pull hard and throw his head about for the first couple of furlongs.

Planteur got to the lead in the homestraight and kicked for home. But he'd simply gone off too hard and it was inevitable that he should tire, which he did rather rapidly in the final furlong.

I should also add that it's rather likely Planteur bounced off his really fast run in the Prix Niel where he had to come under pressure for perhaps a little too long due to the rider of Behkabad wanting to win cheekily which tempted his own rider into keeping after him.

I really hope Planteur is kept in training next year because he's a truly exceptional talent. I rate him bang there with the very best horses we've seen in the last decade. He was simply unfortunate to have been born in the same year as Behkabad who was just his superior.

Next year, with Behkabad retired, I can see Planteur winning pretty much everything. So, seeing that, due to Behkabad, he has yet to win a Group 1, there's surely a massive incentive to keep him in training.

With Rewilding and Jan Vermeer already booked to keep on running next year the three year olds are going to have a tough time making an impression in the big weight for age middle distance races in 2011.

[/quote]



Why didn't Mordin warn us beforehand that the Prix Niel would take it's toll on Behkabad and Planteur? Honestly what a load of rubbish.

I really hope Planteur is kept in training next year because he's a truly exceptional talent. I rate him bang there with the very best horses we've seen in the last decade. He was simply unfortunate to have been born in the same year as Behkabad who was just his superior.

he doesn't half talk some absolute sh1te

next year the three year olds are going to have a tough time making an impression in the big weight for age middle distance races in 2011


because of............Planteur,Rewilding and Jan Vermeer                      

Quite an incredible statement isn't it? Funnily enough none of those had come to prominence this time last year so who knows what will come through next year, really can't believe he said that.

Got to admire him for sticking to his guns!
He is obviously more likely wrong than right but it isn't really that unreasonable an argument.

isn't it wiser to just put your hands up and say you were wrong? Otherwise 2011 going to be an even worse embarrassment for Mr Mordin if he keeps peddling the Behkabad/Planteur/French 3yo's out of this world theory... and keeps opposing Workforce.

No point in putting your hands up and admitting you were wrong if you don't actually believe that. A horse race like the Arc is a one off where anything can happen, the evidence isn't conclusive. If they both show up for the BC Turf and Behkabad wins then Mr. Mordin will have a pretty good case that he was right all along and with luck Behkabad could have won the Arc.

I'd give Bekhabad as good a chance as Workforce in the BC Turf but while Planteur is clearly a very useful animal, and may well win a few Group 1's next year, to suggest he is one of the best we've seen in a decade is pure fantasy.[smiley:crazy]

As I said on the Arc sectionals thread, racing involves a lot of chance. You can only go so far in predicting outcomes. A 1lb rating difference is only 1/6 second so 4 lengths is less than 1 sec in a race lasting 150 secs. We are guilty of trying for a level of accuracy that is just not possible in practice. Of course any of the first 4 home in the Arc could have won. Of course Behkabad can beat WF in the BC and just as easily WF could win. Its a matter of price, how you bet and how you stake. Trying to find THE winner means just backing the most likely winner which is a strategy that doen't work if you don't take price into account.Mordin has no evidance for saying that Behkabad bounced. If he suggested that Planteur is better at 10f I might agree but he doen't. Opinions, opinions, opinions that's all it is.

will Mr Mordin finally give up on the Behkabad best in a decade nonsense?

... was this horse really so unlucky in the Arc?

still one of the funniest and most embarrassing articles I have ever read

Bekhabad didn't deliver, its true, but he can still show that he is better than that. The race was run at a farcical pace on fast ground. No wonder a 10f horse won. Its possible that even Workforce may have been beaten. I'll give him another chance in a truly run 12f race on good to soft. Maybe the 2011 Arc, if he's kept in training.But he is not up to Mordin's claim, for sure.

Behkabad spotted out bowling last night with Black Bear Island....

Bek was on the wrong ground, on the wrong course and didnt have lasix on board

he was always on a hiding to nothing

correct andy i couldnt believe they even ran it on that ground.
he should have been pulled out like workforce .
but what i cant make out is what ground were they expecting over there.surely they must have known it would be fast.

Behkabad been comfortably beaten in 3 of his 4 Group 1 starts, never won a classic, only winning the Grand Prix de Paris against horses who never even won a Group 1 at 3yo themselves.

Behkabad a decent horse, but how many excuses can you keep making for a supposed Group 1 champion?

champions overcome wrong ground, distance etc.

Roger de Bris

So, Zenyatta is not a champion then, using that yardstick? Or So You Think, for that matter.


It shouldn't be a case of being either great or no good. Bekhabad has his place towards the top and like many horses clearly needs a certain set of circumstances to perform at his best. Being beaten is not a disgrace.  Whether he is the best of his generation, I would now doubt,but he is still open to further improvement and can still end up being rated higher than his current mark.

youre comparing Zenyatta to Behkabad? ffs....we all saw what happened Zenyatta the weekend. Beaker wasnt quick enough to take the gaps in the Arc, Workforce didnt have a totally clear passage either in the Arc, Workforce is a champion. Blame had to squeeze through a very small gap on Saturday night, Blame is a champion. All those who backed Behkabad on Saturday night now know he's not a champion. Champions can perform consistently on a range of going, distances, tracks e.g Sea The Stars.

I was against Behkabad in the Arc but it's obvious to me that he ran below his best there and again on Saturday night. Most horses can only peak a couple of times in a season and Behkabad ran his best races in the Grand Prix de Paris and in the Niel. Workforce ran to his best twice, in the Derby and the Arc. He probably needed the Dante run but his KG run was garbage. It would've been interesting to see how he'd have performed on Saturday.

Figgis, I agree with your comments.

Roger, you are trotting out a line i.e champions can win anywhere .. that is just not right. There are countless examples of top horses -champions if you like -that got beat because something was wrong. That's the reason why I used Zenyatta not because I was comparing like with like.Nor should the discussion about Bekhabad revolve around whether he is a "champion" or not.Clearly, he is not but he can do better.

Moreover, just because Blame won on Saturday does not make him, imo, a "champion" A blind man could see that the only champion in the race got beat and given a sensible ride she would be lengths in front of the winner.

Sandown, don't you also think that many championship races are dependent on how previous races pan out? For instance, if Workforce had run right up to form in the KG would he have had enough left in the tank for the Arc? I don't know a great deal about the American form but there was a lot of talk about Zenyatta winning a lot of slowish run races previously, I think that probably helped her to be able to put in such a big effort on Saturday. The ability has to be there already, but I think some horses get lucky and take in one or two slowly run Group 1 races along the way, this enables them to hold their form for longer. This is one of the reasons I rate Goldikova so highly, she's ran in fast races time and time again and kept delivering the goods. I think it's just unfortunate that her 2 fastest performances were in France (where she put up huge figures) and so have been underrated.

the point i was trying to make is that heading into the Arc there was a lot of hype about Behkabad, potential champion etc. He proved not quick enough in the Arc, and and again at the Breeders Cup. All his wins have come in races with 9 or less runners as well.

Figgis

I'm sure you are right because at the very top everything needs to be right on the day and prior races can be counted as part of the preparation - they either add to fitness or they substract from it. Goldikova has proved to be a very sound, consistent horse at the very top but even she has been beaten 6 times from 21 runs.

Roger

The only person really hyping up Bekhabad was Nick Mordin. I believd that he could run to 135 given the right conditions and I still hold to that. Its clear that he needs a longish straight to lengthen and a strong pace because he is a stayer. His form over less than 12f is not as good as his 12f form. His chance to show his best was in the Arc, not in the BC when faced with a sharp track, fast ground and a very slow pace. Whether he was spot on following the Arc, i don't know, and there are plenty of other factors to consider.As for not having the speed in the Arc, I doubt if many other horses would have quickened in the time having been held in for so long. Not excuses, just possible alternative explanations.

For me, Goldikova wasn't that good until the Prix Chloe, where her figures started to really improve. Since then she's only been beaten 3 times, first time out in '09, where she obviously was far from ready, the other 2 times were both after she'd run huge figures, no coincidence that she needed to recover from those efforts imo. She's a remarkable mare and another example of why it's stupid to gear the flat so heavily around a 3yos campaign.

Sandown, if Behkabad/Workforce both show up in the King George or the Arc next year, and they are evens in a match bet, who would you be on?

In a match at evens I would take WF but it depends on the conditions somewhat.

I think a lot of people bandy about the term champion or great far too often as very few horses deserve this accolade.see the stars nijinsky,mill reef ,br gerard etc were all champion because the y could win at muliple distances on either extremes of going and win top class races repeatedly so for those reasons i agree with roger
that true champions can win even when their prefered conditions are not met.

Sea the Stars never ran on extreme going, his trainer also expressed doubts about running him over 12f on testing ground. If a miler displayed brilliance at that distance I wouldn't discount it from being a champion just because it couldn't get further.

that true champions can win even when their prefered conditions are not met.


Logically, this is not a true statement because even champions sometimes get beat. Otherwise you would have to re-define "champions" as only referring to horses that never get beaten which is somewhat limiting.

Brigadier G got beat, Nijinsky got beat,Mill Reef got beat. Getting beaten doesn't disbar horses from being regarded as "champions" but it puts the lie to the trite old saying "that champions can win despite preferred conditions not being met".

of couse some horses are bred or can only show their optimum over a certain trip,r of gibraltar pure miler,tudor minstrel,miesque,
brig gerard was really a mile/mile and quater but his class allowed him to win over further.
the thing is some horses can transcend going and distance;greville starkey always maintained dancing brave could win at any distance even up to 2miles.
the greatest horse of the 19th century,ormonde,won at a variety of distances,his last victory a 5f sprint.

Zarkava never got beat, won Group 1's over 1m-1m4f and laughed at Goldikova - what a superstar she was

true champions can win even when their prefered conditions are not met.


The best ever on the Flat and over jumps both got beat.



Sea Bird II (1962-1973) is considered by many to be the greatest post-war European flat racehorse. His Timeform rating of 145 is still the highest ever flat figure awarded by that publication.

He met with the only defeat of his career in the Grand Critérium when second to his stablemate Grey Dawn.

(Arkle)At 212 his Timeform rating is the highest ever awarded to a steeplechaser.
Arkle won 27 of his 35 starts


Can we now confine this silly statement to the dustbin, please.

The trouble with this unrealistic vision of expecting real champions not to get beat is it leads to Zarkava type campaigns, despite her undoubted ability she was kept to racing against her own sex, until her final race, all in her own back yard then packed off to stud at 3.

sandown i dont think its a silly state ment i never said true champions have to be unbeaten.

Agree Figg, in the States they were moaning about the recent trend of Derby winners to only race six times in one season.............

It doesn't really help to attract new fans to the sport either does it, Zil?

No it doesnt, Dessie was a great Ambassador for the sport. His connections were never afraid of defeat and he always came back for more.

Never did much harm to his reputation, did it ??

Apparently, Bekhabad remains in training so we will get other chances to assess this colt.

Trouble with the 135 stuff is that his best performance yet on form rates him about 123, around 12lbs better than he is supposed to be able to run.ANow he did meet trouble in running in the Arc, but then when faced with what ought to have been a penalty kick in the breeders cup, he failed yet again, not even running ti his 123 form rating.

Now I know that Mordin could not see how on earth Workforce could beat him in france, and then tipped him again as if he was Pegasus in the breeders Cup Turf, but as often seems to be the case, could Mordin not just have been about 10 lbs wrong?

I tend to dislike horses that keep on being somehow unlucky. behkabad has now run 9 times and has yet to run a rating of more than 123 in my assessment, with the only possible improvement being in the P

Sorry...

being in the Prix Foy, where a 105 rated listed slowcoach was supposed to suddenly have improved a stone from any previous effort to give Behkabad a high rating.

If something looks a bit like a duck, has crispy skin, is served with orange sauce ........

All Behkabad's performances to date make him appear to be just short of top class. After 9 races perhaps its time to accept he is just short of top class.

FFS COT

Id rather someone stuck his balls on the line rather than get splinters..............

As the source of the 135 claim, I admit I may be wrong and that Bekhabad may or may not eventually deliver that level of performance. Estimating what a horse may be capable of is so much more of an art than a science. Goodness, it is hard enough to get any kind of agreement on what a horse has actually achieved, let alone what he might achieve. Is Bekhabad a 123 or a 128< It's a matter of opinion.

What is clear is that relying on past performances alone is the road to the poor house. Last week, we had So You Think the shortest ever fav for the MC, beaten yet Coolmore must consider him a European G1 horse. Zenyatta got beat after 19 consecutive wins: Midday got beat after many considered her a certainty. Only Goldilova ran up to her best.

What I do know is that by making a judgement on what a horse might be capable of I can usually be in front of the market. If I'm right about Bekhabad then the future price will probably be in my favour. If I'm wrong, then I'm wrong. Either way, it's not about debating points cryoftruth, its about finishing ahead of the game.

I agree Sandown. I have debated a few points with you on here but that's because it's more interesting as you have your own personal viewpoints/methods, rather than just taking your cue from Timeform ratings etc.

i do agree with the last point you made Sandown. Predicting which horses will improve and have a better chance of winning particular races than their price might indictae is a decent way to profit. So too is though is predicting which horses have less ability than their reputation would indicate. For me the jury is still out about Behkabad, though I lean towards laying him at short prices when he is up against something he would heve to improve to beat.

The stuff about MIdday and Zenyatta was fair enough too. I had only two bets at the Breeders cup. Midday at 7/4 and Zenyatta at 9/2! Both good prices and arguably both were unlucky.

Midday got a couple of bad bumps and still only went doen by about a foot, and Zenyatta nearly won despite her jockey appearing to believe she had a 5 litre Jaguar engine attached to her rear end!

Regards Midday though, I think the prix Vermeille was the clue with hindsight. I was very disappointed she didn't slaughter her rivals in that race and she was showing signs of having deteriorating form there, having peaked so brilliantly at York.

when bek gets soft ground you will see what he is capable of .