Horse Antepost
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must say I really like the look of this fella for the Arc,couldnt have gone better on Sunday,must have a real live chance.....
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POSTED ON SEPTEMBER 13, 2010
BEHKABAD VERY HARD TO OPPOSE FOR ARC NOW BEHKABAD (45) ran amazingly fast to take the Prix Niel from old rival PLANTEUR (45). And though he only won by a short neck and Planteur also ran an incredible time he clearly demonstrated once more that he has a good deal more acceleration than Planteur and is probably always going to be able to quicken past him over a mile and a half. Behkabad adopted his normal pace pressing tactics and initially sat second behind Planteur's pacemaker who was setting a searching gallop. But Planteur's jockey seemed to be anxious not to ask his mount to once more try and come from behind Behkabad so he hustled him to pass the green colours and establish a couple of lengths buffer for when Behkabad made his charge. Entering the straight Planteur was fairly cruising and there was no way the pace could quicken enough to catch him flat-footed because his pacemaker had done such a good job. Unfortunately a glace at Behkabad a couple of lengths behind revealed that he was moving equally well. The race didn't begin in earnest between the pair until a furlong and a half out. It looked clear that neither Anthony Crastius on Planteur or Christophe Lemaire on Behkabad wanted to go for everything with the Arc just three weeks away. So each was trying to see if they could put the race to bed without riding their mounts hard. But a furlong and a half out it was obvious that wasn't going to be possible. Crastius had to ride a bit harder because Lemaire was trying to win as narrowly and cheekily as he could. Crastius had no choice but to keep riding Planteur hard with Behkabad still in his sights. Behkabad was always going to get up once he started his run. But Planteur stretched his old rival a bit more than he had in the Grand Prix de Paris, going under by a short neck this time instead of three parts of a length. The merit of Behkabad and Planteur can be seen from the fact that they reached the hedge - a bit more than three furlongs from home - 0.8 of a second sooner than Midday and co did in the Prix Vermeille but still managed to come home from there another 0.8 of a second faster. This means the 1.6 second difference in time between the two races is an accurate measure of the difference in ability between Behkabad and Planteur and Europe's top fillies. They're a monstrous eight lengths faster. Behkabad was really moving in the final quarter mile. He covered the penultimate furlong in 11.7 seconds and the final one in 11.9. As the pair dueled they rapidly opened up a four length gap on their rivals. It was an absolutely top class effort from both of them, meriting the best speed ratings I've awarded two horses in a race in years. You have to feel sorry for Planteur. Take Behkabad away and he would have won the Grand Prix de Paris by five lengths and this race by four - both in seriously fast time. He'd probably be even money for the Arc now, and justifiably so. Planteur is taller and slightly less coordinated than Behkabad who is more compact and athletic. You could say the difference between the pair is like that between an SUV and a sports car. But that would be unfair on Planteur who would surely be regarded as a Champion in almost any other season. If there's any justice Behkabad will be retired after the Arc and Planteur will stay in training next season to give him a chance to earn his own place in the spotlight. The obvious concern about this performance for both him and Behkabad is that it could knock either or both of these fine three year olds off form, just as that huge run in the Voltigeur probably did with Rewilding. However Rewilding had to chase after a smart rival for a long part of the five furlong homestraight at York while Behkabad and Planteur only hooked up for a furlong and a half here. And while Rewilding had previously shown that he was best when freshened up that's not the case with either Behkabad or Planteur. The clincher is the sub 12 second final furlong here. Horses don't run that fast at the end of a race if they're tired. Most likely both Behkabad and Planteur will be able to produce their best once more in the Arc. If they do my ratings suggest they're going to pull clear of all their opponents for the third time in a row and give us another fine exhibition of class. That's certainly the way I'll be betting. I see the straight forecast of Behkabad to beat Planteur in the Arc as a fabulous bet. |
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And a Nick Mordin 45 just about tops the charts in the 3yo colt division this season.
I wonder if the real Workforce will turn-up? |
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Mordin appears to have compared the vermeille finishing split to the neil based on Sarafinas pacemaker against planteur, Sarafina & Middays finishing splits were faster than the colts imo.
I still think the Neil had the better performances . |
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THANKS MP FOR SHARING NICK'S WORK FROM NICKMORDIN .COM TO BETFAIR .COM's CUSTOMERS.
To find out more about exciting horses like Behkabad go to: NICKMORDIN .COM Don't be a mug, be like MP and you too can be apart of cutting edge tipping. NICKMORDIN .COM |
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nicks work is free to anyone who cares to have a look so i don't see that there has been any harm
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The finishing splits of the Vermeille were faster than the Niel because of the slower early pace in the fillies race.
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It's free for anyone to look at grw123 but to post it here and not give him credit for it is a bit off.
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? strange comment
i thought it was pretty obvious that i wasn't claiming this as my own. anyone who follows the forum on a regular basis will understand that mordin gets regular mention from myself and others, mainly because of his rather wacky but interesting views. besides anyone who knows me should surely know that i would never put in this much work[:p] I don't see why there should be copyright issues if the site itself is free. why do people always try to create an argument where there isn't one? although i guess that's the internet for you, and the problem with free speech [smiley:crazy] |
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No problem with you posting it mp.
Just that the man who wrote it wasn't given credit for doing so by way of a link. |
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why does it matter?
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i don't see why you are having a go at me all of a sudden. i'm one of mordin's biggest supporters on here and i'm always giving him the big up. he's just getting free advertising from me banging on about him all of the time.
besides. i really can't see why i need to provide a link? surely only a brain-dead idiot would think that i actually wrote that? |
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I wasn't having a go at all.
The reason you should post a link is because it's his material that he wrote for his site. The article was posted without any mention whatsoever about who wrote it. I knew who did and I assume most others would know just from the speed figures but I guess its just good etiquette to reference where it came from. |
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Mordin's figure for Behkhabad is way over the top. If you have been following Nick's column this year, you will know that he has been talking up the French middle distance 3yos all year as the best in Europe, so suspect the rating awarded to Behkabad is just Nick trying to back up his theory.
Will be very surprised if either Behkabad or Planteur win the Arc. |
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really? any reason other than nick likes it? can't have fame and glory at longchamp at all [smiley:crazy]
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Will be very surprised if either Behkabad or Planteur win the Arc.
Why - what is your reasoning? If you don't think that they can win,fair enough, but they have some sort of chance if they run so what price do you make them? Which horses have a better chance and how do you price them? |
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pedrobob
One other point. Unless you price up a horse with an odds on chance, its true to say that no horse can be said to be a likely winner and it would be more accurate to say that he is a likely loser.So, in saying that you do not expect either to win you are only saying in another form what the market is saying which is combined they have 2/1 against chance of winning. So your opinion is not adding much, is it? |
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I would not be surprised if one of the two won. However at the prices on offer others make more appeal, given the overall quality of their proven form on the racecourse.
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This year's Arc looks very weak to be fair and won't take an awful lot of winning! Couldn't back Behkabad at his current odds, I think there is better each way value further afield! Duncan anyone!?
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Sandown, based on my own ratings compilation, Behkabad or Planteur would not be good enough to win a normal Arc.
But have to backtrack slightly as have to agree with a few others that it looks a weak contest this year. Fame And Glory would rate better than Behkabad/Planteur with me, as would a back to form Rewilding. But Workforce was an outstanding Derby winner in a very fast time, and he if was back to that level, would win very easily. I see St Nicholas Abbey listed in the betting quite short with some. If he was anything like he was at 2, then would also consider strongly. |
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Fame And Glory would rate better than Behkabad/Planteur with me, as would a back to form Rewilding.
11th April 2010 (level weights) 1st Planteur 2nd Rewilding btn 1.5 l Why would Rewilding be a better bet that Planteur and Behkabad? |
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"I see St Nicholas Abbey listed in the betting quite short with some. If he was anything like he was at 2, then would also consider strongly. "
I fail to see the connection between the RP trophy and the Arc  |
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pedrobob
based on my own ratings compilation, Behkabad or Planteur would not be good enough to win a normal Arc. Using RPR figs the average Arc winner over the past 20 years has run to 130 showing an average 3.5 improvement over previos PB. Behkabad was rated 128 and Planteur 127 for the Niel. Both, therefore, are capable of winning an average Arc. There chance is obviously relative to the competition, all of whom have quite big questions to answer. F&G has run 10 times since his PB. Sarafina has to improve 5'bs plus fillies allowance to get to Behkabad and the trip may not be her optimum. Workforce flopped last time and it is a tremendous ask to win the Arc without a prep. Cape Blanco is probably better at 10f. Youmzain is getting on and has a low win%. I would conclude that this in average year and thereforebut the Niel first 2 are the ones with potential to improve further. whether they can be considered value at the current prices is a separate issue. |
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I pointed out on the Arc thread that those RPRs are total guesses from the Post, no justification for them whatsoever imo, based on a weight rating of course.
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yeah the opposition to planteur and behkabad looks pretty poor to me, compared to what they might expect in a normal arc.
workforce- was absolutely dismal in the king george, before that yes he had ran a very fast time in the derby, but is that so surprising given the crazy pace they went in the race and the lightning fast ground? fame and glory has done nothing wrong this year, but essentially he lacks a burst of speed- always feel he will be vulnerable around this track to something with a late kick. st nick abbey i can't have at all, youmzain is an ageing dog that hasn't won for several millenia, and as for rewilding, why would he even run given the trainer has already stated that he needs more time between his races? |
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Not much wrong with the Grand Prix de Paris form imo...
3rd Jan Vermeer beaten 5 lengths- only beat 2 lengths in irish derby 4th Goldwaki beaten 5 lengths- beaten 2 lengths in a group 2 next time given no chance by a slow pace & being held up 5th Lawspeaker beaten 8 lengths- wins a listed race next start 6th Ivory Land beat 15 lengths- wins a listed race next start You could argue Workforces derby form is better but it looked like the obrien horses all ran below form in that race to me(bar the pacemaker) & Rewilding didn't handle the track. The race took alot out of him & I'd doubt he could reproduce the form. Fame & Glory's 4yo form is not working out imo , people are just looking at his form through Sea The Stars rose tinted spectacles. |
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Celtic Son, have just rechecked my figs and agree yes Planteur is actually rated 2-3lbs better then Rewilding.
Sandown, fair summary, only part I would disagree with are the ratings awarded to Behkabad and Planteur. My point earlier was that Mordin awards high ratings not based on the actual evidence, but often to back up a theory or opinion (in this case that the French middle dist 3yos are far superior to others in Europe) that he has formed, and refuses to deviate from despite subsequent evidence proving to the contrary. Not sure what each pt is worth on the Mordin scale, but this season he has awarded Workforce 41 for breaking the track record in the Derby, and Harbinger 42 for breaking the track record in the King George. Given the history of those 2 races, difficult to see how his computer can come up with a figure of 45 for Behkabad and Planteur in the Niel. By awarding that figure, presumably Mordin is saying that the Niel 3rd Kidnapping ( winner of 3 Italian listed races), beaten 4 1/4 lengths, is nearly the same horse as Workforce and Harbinger? In reality, Kidnapping probably rates 14-15 lengths behind those Stoute horses, hence shows just how far Mordin has overassessed Behkabad/Planteur to back up his theory. |
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ben10
I pointed out on the Arc thread that those RPRs are total guesses from the Post, no justification for them whatsoever imo, based on a weight rating of course. With the exception of Kidnapping they don't look unreasonable to me at all : Behkabad +4 Planteur +4 Victoire Pisa -5 Shamalgan -7. So, you are left with Kidnapping raised +15 vs previous PB. That was only his 6th run so its not impossible given that the run came after 2 listed wins. Don't see how you get to "total guesses" Guess we have to wait to find out  |
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Actually, you can easily say Jan Vermeer didn't get home in the ground, Lawspeaker has run to 101 on both his listed starts so perhaps ran to it here(which would put Behka on a paltry 114) and Ivory Land won a very poor Listed race last time out, only running to high double figures. All about opinions though
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pedrobob
Wouldn't build a case around NM's ratings personally |
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ben10
One could but I wouldn't |
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ben10I'm at cross purposes - ignore my last post |
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Ah I see, give me 5 minutes...
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Right, not actually hard for me to argue that neither Victoire Pisa nor Shamalgan ran to form. Shamalgan ran a cracker last time running to 114 according to the post, no real argument there but this extra 2 furlong clearly stretches him as he's right there 2 furlong out and ends up fading tamely. I also think that Victoire Pisa shaped like a non stayer picking up very eyecatchingly turning in and looking a big danger before the others go away from him again, clear sign of not staying and I felt his pedigree backed this up pre-race. Kidnapping's clearly run a pb, no dispute there but given that the post thought he ran to 105 in Italy (I can't accurately assess it but Frankenstein recieved 24lbs off Estejo nto, including wfa, who's probably a solid 110 horse so 105+ can be argued easily)
So has Kidnapping found a stone, given the usual level of Italian horses I'd err on saying no, but would say it's fair to go 115. That leaves you with 121 on the winner which looks right to me and much more accurate. The argument is did Behka and Planteur outstay the 4th and 5th or did they allow them to close and then use their class to kick on again. I think what I've said above has taken a bit of both and shows an improvement on the GPDP but not a massive one. |
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ben10
Ah, the collateral handicappers reasoning. Who ran to form, who didn't? Interpretation of who stayed and who didn't using collateral ratings as a base. Pedigrees brought into it, too. Pick 115 and say its fair. Why? Kidnapping has found a stone. Can't have, even though its possible. Forgive me, but this is so much guess work.This is what I can tell you using sectionals. First, Kidnapping quickened at the end of the race. He wasn't beaten imo because he didn't stay but because both Behkabed and Planteur quickened more. French racing nearly always results in horses quickening up and the day's trials were no exception. On final time ratings Kidnapping ran to 105 on my figures but because of the way the race was run i.e.slow-fast - he can be credited with a higher rating. How much more? Well, I reckon 120. Which matches the RPR by coincidence. Now for the front two. The race winner ran to 112 on final time. Now here's the bit where you can have a laugh.Because of the way that they quickened my formula rates Behkabad as capable of producing 135 and Planteur 131. You're welcome to tear that to shreds as its obviously speculative. But if you give me some credit for producing a proven formula (over 20 years)then you see how I arrive at higher figs.Incidently, on her Prix Diane run Sarafina is capable of running to 130 but she didn't reproduce that over 12f.Lack of fitness or stamina? It's all good fun and beats picking horses by names, don't you agree? |
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Sandown, what did you rate Harbinger and Workforce for their wins this season?
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Sandown
That seems a very high rating for Sarafina. I accept that her latest run was inconclusive and she may be capable of better than we've seen so far, but the Diane wasn't a very good renewal. I understand that if she finished the latter part of the race with a fast sectional you would rate her higher than the bare form. I agree that a fast final split can be a sign that a horse was capable of better given a more evenly run race but to me it seems you're reading what is a possibility and taking it as a probability. |
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pedrobob Joined: 27 Mar 06
Replies: 335 18 Sep 10 13:24 Celtic Son, have just rechecked my figs and agree yes Planteur is actually rated 2-3lbs better then Rewilding. Sandown, fair summary, only part I would disagree with are the ratings awarded to Behkabad and Planteur. My point earlier was that Mordin awards high ratings not based on the actual evidence, but often to back up a theory or opinion (in this case that the French middle dist 3yos are far superior to others in Europe) that he has formed, and refuses to deviate from despite subsequent evidence proving to the contrary. Not sure what each pt is worth on the Mordin scale, but this season he has awarded Workforce 41 for breaking the track record in the Derby, and Harbinger 42 for breaking the track record in the King George. Given the history of those 2 races, difficult to see how his computer can come up with a figure of 45 for Behkabad and Planteur in the Niel. By awarding that figure, presumably Mordin is saying that the Niel 3rd Kidnapping ( winner of 3 Italian listed races), beaten 4 1/4 lengths, is nearly the same horse as Workforce and Harbinger? In reality, Kidnapping probably rates 14-15 lengths behind those Stoute horses, hence shows just how far Mordin has overassessed Behkabad/Planteur to back up his theory. ^ good point actually |
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Here is a stat for you guys to digest which doesn't give Behkabad much chance of winning the Arc! In nearly 30 years no sire has won back to back Arcs!!! Enough reason to give him a swerve for me, even though stats are there to be broken!!!
Riverman was the last sire to win back to back Arcs (Detroit 1980 / Gold River 1981). |