Horse Antepost
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I think REWILDING has got an outstanding chance in winning the St Leger. This horse has been aimed at this race... and Godolphin season seems to focus around the St Leger.
They had a 1-2 last season, with Frankie beaten, I think he will make sure of the win this year.
The other horse I like is ARCTIC COSMOS, I think Gosdens horses do peak this time of the year, and he seems to be coming to form. He has a runner with a similar profile to Lucarno, who won it in 2007, Arctic cosmos although behind Dandino, and Rebel Soldier was reported not to like the track. Think he can reverse the form with Dandino, as Gosdens horses do improve this time of the year.
Of the other horses:
DANDINO - Good run last time out.. what puts me off would be the trainer/jockey combination, Could they win a Group 1? He has been running in handicapped races, then ran second to Rebel solder which is solid form, but it depends on how much improvement it shows in Group 1 company, but for me I have doubts, looks like a Group 2/3 horse...
MIDAS TOUCH - Beaten fair and square by Rewilding... in both the Voltigeur and the Derby. Not sure O'Brien knows which horses are the best in his crop, for example RIP beat Cape Blanco, then reversed places very easily yesterday... Dont they see anything on the gallops?
Would want to see what turns up for O'Brien before looking at his horses. I think AWAIT THE DAWN is his best chance but doubt he will turn up after winning yesterday... Shame!! But MT for me has little chance against REWILDING and wouldnt trust O'Brien, for that matter it would be interesting if Murtagh opts for Joshua Tree... who came back from a long lay off, but was beaten by REWILDING and bounce factor to consider.
SNOW FAIRY - Only filly in the race... really like this horse... 2nd to Midday is solid form, but seemed like he had a tough race... not sure whether he would turn up... but if it did can see it in the top 3
TED SPREAD - Good run against Rewilding as he hated the ground, if it rains a good bet ew, but unlikey to so would give it a miss!
THEOLOGY - Interesting horse, considering they are not running Rebel Soldier, but this one... who was only under 2 lengths away from Dandino and Arctic Cosmos... was a nose behind Mikheal Glinka... would be interesting to see what the trainer thinks about this one.
TOTAL COMMAND - Got beaten by most of these - Sir Micheal Stoute form is quite poor this season... deserves a chnage of luck but massive task to reverse form with some of these
The horses that stand out are:
1)REWILDING
2)ARCTIC COSMOS
Snow Fairy is probably my third choice... but may not turn up
Let me know what you think is your top two?
They had a 1-2 last season, with Frankie beaten, I think he will make sure of the win this year.
The other horse I like is ARCTIC COSMOS, I think Gosdens horses do peak this time of the year, and he seems to be coming to form. He has a runner with a similar profile to Lucarno, who won it in 2007, Arctic cosmos although behind Dandino, and Rebel Soldier was reported not to like the track. Think he can reverse the form with Dandino, as Gosdens horses do improve this time of the year.
Of the other horses:
DANDINO - Good run last time out.. what puts me off would be the trainer/jockey combination, Could they win a Group 1? He has been running in handicapped races, then ran second to Rebel solder which is solid form, but it depends on how much improvement it shows in Group 1 company, but for me I have doubts, looks like a Group 2/3 horse...
MIDAS TOUCH - Beaten fair and square by Rewilding... in both the Voltigeur and the Derby. Not sure O'Brien knows which horses are the best in his crop, for example RIP beat Cape Blanco, then reversed places very easily yesterday... Dont they see anything on the gallops?
Would want to see what turns up for O'Brien before looking at his horses. I think AWAIT THE DAWN is his best chance but doubt he will turn up after winning yesterday... Shame!! But MT for me has little chance against REWILDING and wouldnt trust O'Brien, for that matter it would be interesting if Murtagh opts for Joshua Tree... who came back from a long lay off, but was beaten by REWILDING and bounce factor to consider.
SNOW FAIRY - Only filly in the race... really like this horse... 2nd to Midday is solid form, but seemed like he had a tough race... not sure whether he would turn up... but if it did can see it in the top 3
TED SPREAD - Good run against Rewilding as he hated the ground, if it rains a good bet ew, but unlikey to so would give it a miss!
THEOLOGY - Interesting horse, considering they are not running Rebel Soldier, but this one... who was only under 2 lengths away from Dandino and Arctic Cosmos... was a nose behind Mikheal Glinka... would be interesting to see what the trainer thinks about this one.
TOTAL COMMAND - Got beaten by most of these - Sir Micheal Stoute form is quite poor this season... deserves a chnage of luck but massive task to reverse form with some of these
The horses that stand out are:
1)REWILDING
2)ARCTIC COSMOS
Snow Fairy is probably my third choice... but may not turn up
Let me know what you think is your top two?
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I was going to back Arctic Cosmos E/W nrnb with lads
one horse race. forget arctic cosmos lump on rewilding.
Think Rewilding is the class horse in the race but the Leger doesnt always go to plan so either Corsica or Joshua Tree for me.
Good luck all.
Good luck all.
three horses that def can't win for me are dandino, corsica and snow fairy.
The clock says its a two horse race, Rewilding and Midas Touch.At the prices I would prefer Midas Touch each-way.
Midas Touch looks a banker e/w and if they get plenty of rain he could win.
almost every horse in the field would prefer fast ground .
although he goes well on fast midas touch would be at a huge advantage if the rain came absolute banker e/w if the rain comes
and will probably win.
although he goes well on fast midas touch would be at a huge advantage if the rain came absolute banker e/w if the rain comes
and will probably win.
Cut in the ground should not inconvenience Rewilding. He won his maiden on heavy ground, and was beaten a length and a half by Planteur on soft going in the Prix Noailles with 5 lengths back to the 3rd.
He was only beaten a neck on his debut over 9f on good to soft.
Cut in the ground won't bother him.
He was only beaten a neck on his debut over 9f on good to soft.
Cut in the ground won't bother him.
Also, when Jan Vermeer stuffed Midas Touch last year in France, O'Brien commented that Midas Touch didn't appreciate the ground. The ground that day was described as very soft. I acknowledge that we are very unlikely to get very soft ground on Saturday.
However, it might be misleading to think that Midas Touch would hold an advantage over Rewilding should the rains come and soften the ground.
However, it might be misleading to think that Midas Touch would hold an advantage over Rewilding should the rains come and soften the ground.
if the rain comes rewilding wont be placed imo .
remember it has the same damsire as yeats and you know how he performed in soft ground.
remember it has the same damsire as yeats and you know how he performed in soft ground.
beryl french going reports are as useful as an ashtray on a motorbike 1e useless
His half sister; Dar Re Mi went on any ground. His sire Tiger Hill, also went on any ground.
Lay Preacher, I respect what you say about Yeats, but I don't believe Rewilding will have any problem with cut in the ground.
Lay Preacher, I respect what you say about Yeats, but I don't believe Rewilding will have any problem with cut in the ground.
cant agree with you about dar re mi the faster the ground the better for that one. you are correct about the sire tiger hill whose progeny do indeed go on soft however the damsire top ville is a very strong influence for fast ground horses and the way rewilding moves i would say he takes it after him.
the races rewilding has one with a bit of give will almost certainly be down to that he has outstayed the opposition rather than handled the ground .but he wont get away with not handling the ground at group 1 level but it will be interesting to see .
the races rewilding has one with a bit of give will almost certainly be down to that he has outstayed the opposition rather than handled the ground .but he wont get away with not handling the ground at group 1 level but it will be interesting to see .
I've had a max bet @7/4 Rewilding , gonna top it up this week if i make any profit.
Anyone willing to lay it bigger than 7/4 ?
Anyone willing to lay it bigger than 7/4 ?
12 left in - any thoughts on which of O'Brien's 2 main protagonists JPM will ride?!
30/40 mm of rain forecast before saturday.
murtagh certain to be on midas.
murtagh certain to be on midas.
still think flying cross is interesting. is he likely to run?
tlp,
Rewilding might not place, but I cannot from a breeding perspective see how that would logically be the reason.
I must admit I, probably once again, cannot agree with one of your conclusions, "the damsire top ville is a very strong influence for fast ground horses". But it is of course all about opinion.
I have long viewed Top Ville as a "neutral" dam sire. His record as a "damsire" from 1996 to 2009, covering 2900 plus runs, for average rating, standard deviation and probability of being the damsire of a 100+ rated grand son/daughter.
G/F 65 - 21- 4.99
G 69 - 22.5 - 8.6
G/S 67 - 20.1 - 5.03
S 68 - 22.9 - 8.57
Tiger Hill softer orientated, if anything, same numbers but obviously as the sire. Smaller sample size due to his shorter stud career, but still acceptable @ 450+
G/F 71 - 16.97 - 7.37
G 72 - 21.19 - 9.38
G/S 72.87 - 20.53 - 9.32
S 77.67 - 26.86 - 20.28
Rewilding might not place, but I cannot from a breeding perspective see how that would logically be the reason.
I must admit I, probably once again, cannot agree with one of your conclusions, "the damsire top ville is a very strong influence for fast ground horses". But it is of course all about opinion.
I have long viewed Top Ville as a "neutral" dam sire. His record as a "damsire" from 1996 to 2009, covering 2900 plus runs, for average rating, standard deviation and probability of being the damsire of a 100+ rated grand son/daughter.
G/F 65 - 21- 4.99
G 69 - 22.5 - 8.6
G/S 67 - 20.1 - 5.03
S 68 - 22.9 - 8.57
Tiger Hill softer orientated, if anything, same numbers but obviously as the sire. Smaller sample size due to his shorter stud career, but still acceptable @ 450+
G/F 71 - 16.97 - 7.37
G 72 - 21.19 - 9.38
G/S 72.87 - 20.53 - 9.32
S 77.67 - 26.86 - 20.28
the lay preacher Joined: 17 Apr 03
Replies: 1935 06 Sep 10 12:09
cant agree with you about dar re mi the faster the ground the better for that one. you are correct about the sire tiger hill whose progeny do indeed go on soft however the damsire top ville is a very strong influence for fast ground horses and the way rewilding moves i would say he takes it after him.
the races rewilding has one with a bit of give will almost certainly be down to that he has outstayed the opposition rather than handled the ground .but he wont get away with not handling the ground at group 1 level but it will be interesting to see .
Take a look at the Maisons Laffite race last year, TLP, it was much softer than a bit of give.
Replies: 1935 06 Sep 10 12:09
cant agree with you about dar re mi the faster the ground the better for that one. you are correct about the sire tiger hill whose progeny do indeed go on soft however the damsire top ville is a very strong influence for fast ground horses and the way rewilding moves i would say he takes it after him.
the races rewilding has one with a bit of give will almost certainly be down to that he has outstayed the opposition rather than handled the ground .but he wont get away with not handling the ground at group 1 level but it will be interesting to see .
Take a look at the Maisons Laffite race last year, TLP, it was much softer than a bit of give.
equi your are due your opinion m8 and i respect that. if you remember early on in yeats career everyone was touting it as a soft ground horse because sadlers wells was the sire and i was forever arguing with everyone that he was a fast ground horse and that the damsire top ville would have a strong bearing on that.
this is a very similar case and for that reason if it comes up softish i cant have rewilding at all.
figgis i havent seen that race m8 but as i said a few posts earlier the french going reports are a thing of pure fantasy.
this is a very similar case and for that reason if it comes up softish i cant have rewilding at all.
figgis i havent seen that race m8 but as i said a few posts earlier the french going reports are a thing of pure fantasy.
tlp,
You are correct about Yeats, but to take the 26 runs of one horse, from a total of 2900+ as justification that a particular dam sire is a fast ground provider isn't something I can run with myself.
I think Rewilding has a very "neutral ground" pedigree, he as an individual might, but has not as yet, show a marked preference for some ground.
You are correct about Yeats, but to take the 26 runs of one horse, from a total of 2900+ as justification that a particular dam sire is a fast ground provider isn't something I can run with myself.
I think Rewilding has a very "neutral ground" pedigree, he as an individual might, but has not as yet, show a marked preference for some ground.
Normally I would agree about French going reports, TLP, but check the times for the whole card that day, it was a bog.
Figgis - Do you think Rewilding is a formality for this race on speed ratings?
I wouldn't be quite as confident as that, he has a few pounds in hand, not a huge amount but he's improved at the right time and yes I think he'll win.
Looks like Corsica will be doing the pacemaking for Rewilding. An extract from the Godolphin website:
"Corsica, trained by Mark Johnston for Sheikh Mohammed’s son, Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed al Maktoum, will act as a pacemaker for Rewilding.
Simon Crisford added: "Corsica will be pacemaking for Rewilding. Obviously, he will be running on his own merits. He is a natural front runner and has every right to be in the race himself, but his primary task will be to set the pace for Rewilding." "
"Corsica, trained by Mark Johnston for Sheikh Mohammed’s son, Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed al Maktoum, will act as a pacemaker for Rewilding.
Simon Crisford added: "Corsica will be pacemaking for Rewilding. Obviously, he will be running on his own merits. He is a natural front runner and has every right to be in the race himself, but his primary task will be to set the pace for Rewilding." "
Godolphin very bullish. Even talkin about the Arc.
Can't wait for Saturday - will be there!
Can't wait for Saturday - will be there!
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