Horse Antepost
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I thought it looked impressive last year and clearly should have gone for the Sun Alliance and not the race at Aintree. Can people see it improving into a grade 1 horse??
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I remember when this horse stumbled on the path and fell..Cost me a nice juicy return..Can see this horse coming up short in the top races though..Handicapper
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Will struggle to get off the mark this year outside of egg and spoon races at taunton on a thursday
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no brainer
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Very promising but he's a two and a half miler which isn't a great trip, and doesn't look a Cheltenham sort.
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I like him, have a suspicion he may want to go right handed and would be more confident around those sort of tracks...
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neither. selling plater.
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Why should he clearly have gone for the Sun Alliance?
He was laid out for that Aintree race and was well beaten by two horses who both had hard races in the Arkle at Cheltenham. If he couldn't win that how on earth could he have won or even got close to winning the RSA against a whole host of horses trained to peak for that race? I thought he was a decent horse at one point but tbh, he's well short of top class. |
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has to go RIGHT HANDED
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watch Aintree race again
http://horses.sportinglife.com/Horse_Profile/0,12491,350580,00.html must have given em 25l |
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top class on soft imo will be
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His mark of 148 looks fair rather than lenient - he has a wind problem and whilst surgery might improve the situation in the short term it will never be a long term answer. for that reason I think he will struggle to reach graded level.
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graded level right handed; lay left handed
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Hasnt he finished distressed twice?
With one being in a soft race at Stratford when he was 4/9 fav. |
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That is his wind problem Ben
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No doubt Nicholls has had him booked in this Summer (I know What A Friend has had one fyi) and best time to catch wind op horses is their first couple of runs as after that they seem to taper off a little. Won't be backing for Cheltenham myself
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I would like to see him tried over 3 miles.
Obviously there is no guarantee of him staying. However, his sire Cadoudal is the sire of, amongst others, Big Bucks, Le Beau Bai and Luzcadou, whilst his dam sire (Double Bed) is the dam sire of Kasbah Bliss, Lina Drop and Mokum. |
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You have to wonder if the Nicholls stable has reached its pinnnacle if The Nightingale was their "best" staying novice chaser last season. They had only one runner in the two championship novice chases, and that one - WOOLCOMBE FOLLY - came last in the Arkle. Paul Nicholls can only look to a couple of 10yo's (going on 11yo next March) for any hope of glory. Is it time for a changing of the guard?
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He had some really promising staying novice chasers that got injured early last season Wayward. Michel Le Bon, for one, could be very interesting this year, wouldn't be writing him off yet.
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Crazy comment Wayward, no offence intended.
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I can see what Wayward is suggesting, and certainly was a view I was looking at for the coming main season.
On my ratings for the "season proper" between 1st Nov 2008 and 1st May 2009 the yard had 29 individual horses I rated 150 or higher on at least one occasion. Between 1st Nov 2009 and 1st May 2010 that dropped to 20. Whilst nine horses might not seem a lot, on the criteria of top class horses then I think it is a significant drop. |
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Can name 5 horses minimum who suffered season long injuries, that's why.
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Pride Of Dulcote was their main staying hope imo. Another unfortunate horse
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Ben,
I take you point entirely, and would not dispute the injuries. However, that is maybe 5 of the 9, equally you know as well as I the ratio of horses that reach, or improve upon, their previous performance levels after long term injuries. I do believe that by their own high result levels that the yard could struggle relatively speaking this season. |
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Yep, Neptune Collonges, Noland and Breedsbreeze would be seniors who aren't counted on the stats also. Definity looked promising also as a chaser, also Nictory Note. He's had some bad luck last year, don't write him off.
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*Nictory Vote
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American Trilogy also
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Pride of D isn't a novice for this season right? (sorry to go off ot a bit) Wonder what kind of program he'll have? Is Hennessy ludicrous?
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Neither He is the new Silverburn - Good Luck with that imo
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wayward are you joking? inchadaly may not have been top, top draw, but he would have gone for the rsa, similar hopes included pride of dulcote and michel le bon, definity??
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No, I'm not joking! Injuries affect every trainer and, despite modern vetinary advances, not many horses recoup their best post-injury, and those that do are prone to breaking-down again. I'm not predicting the end of the World as we know it, merely suggesting that in 2010-11 he not find it so easy to be Champion Trainer (in prize-money). From his stable of 170-odd horses, I'm sure there are more than a couple of winners, but Henderson has a decent set of post-novice chasers (and some cracking novices with potential too), as has Twiston-Davies. Oh, and don't forget the Irish!
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nicholls will win the trainers title at a canter with ammunition hes got
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is it me or does paul nicholls have hell of a lot of wind problems?
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That's a bit personal Masterminded.
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Spot on Masterminded - Airflow is a major issue in horses and PN has been at the forefront of surgical correction. He has more horses who have had surgery to correct wind ailments than any other trainer.
I would recommend steering clear of any horse who has had a wind op. The problem is that whilst techniques have improved and surgery may improve the airflow a given horse it will never achieve the 100% functionality that is required to fuel the horse. Any surgeon will tell you that altering tissue to simulate a nerve instigated response can never restore the original functionality. In this case the operating techniques involve improving the airway to increase airflow. When a horse is running at full speed and his stride pattern is at its quickest the larynx which controls the flow of air reverses at 5 times a second. That is a nerve driven process, an automatic response. As you can imagine surgery to correct this is an almost impossible task and even if there is any improvement it is usually temporary. |
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I suppose also that vets are very limited in the means available for testing the effectiveness of wind operations in horses. With human athletes the means of measuring lung function during exercise are fairly well developed now. The practical problems of testing airflow and lung function during exercise with horses must be a considerable impediment to the development of effective measuring/monitoring techniques at this point in time in equine medicine.
Twist Magic is an interesting horse in relation to wind operations. He had a wind operation a while back, I recall. One possible explanation of the way the horse has struggled with the testing track at Cheltenham, is that he still encounters breathing problems or that any beneficial effect of the breathing operation has worn off. Yet, intermittently, he continues to put in some exceptionally good performances, chiefly at Sandown. The slightly easier track at Sandown must help the horse, possibly through the impact on his breathing. Cases like Twist Magic though do perhaps underline the point that there would seem to be complex relationships between different race conditions and the factors that may trigger the kind of breathing problems that the veterinary studies show account for so much of the under-performance in racehorses. Harchibald was another exceptionally good horse that had a breathing operation early in his career. Those who thought the horse was ungenuine, I felt never quite took on board the possibility that some overhang from the breathing problem remained and possibly increasingly affected Harchibald's performances towards the end of his career. |
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Thanks for your reply Wayward. I agree with your 2nd post in its entirety, and know your first post was just to get the debate going mainly, but I just disagreed with the statement that 'Paul Nicholls can only look to a couple of 10yo's (going on 11yo next March) for any hope of glory' when he had numerous quality novices out of action last yr (i would hazard a guess at saying that he had more than most trainers out injured). Maybe they will be as good, maybe not as good, as yesteryear, time will tell. They may turn out to be ordinary, but they all looked nice and it would be dangerous to overlook them when analysing his end of season results and taking a punt on this yr's trainers title. but as i say, i do agree with your 2nd post.
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dont fink wind problems are to blame for twist magics poor shows at cheltenham. he just hates the place and was under pressure from the off last year and think he needs ruby on board
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Sandown's a pretty stiff track tbf
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