CELEBRATION MILE 10-YEAR-TRENDS

Racecaller trends for the past 10 years of Celebration Mile which takes place at Goodwood on Saturday. Last year Delegator won the race but was later disqualified after a banned substance was found in his sample. From a trends perspective we are counting Delegator as last year’s winner:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 4-5-27
4yo: 1-4-18
5yo: 4-1-11
6yo+: 1-2-10
5yos have a super record in the race having won 4 of the last 10 runnings from just 11 of the 66 runners (16.7%).
3yos have also taken 4 of the last 10 renewals, including the last 2, and all 4 winners aged 3 had run in the St James Palace Stakes.

Gender
Fillies and mares (3-0-6) receive a 3lb allowance and 3 of the 6 to run in the race have been successful, though all 3 female winners were trained by Michael Stoute.
Record of females aged 4+: 1151 (3-0-4)
Record of females aged 3: 44 (0-0-2) 

Weight
Horses carrying a group 1 penalty (6lbs): 543 (0-0-3)
Horses carrying a group 2 penalty (3lbs): 66533652 (0-2-8)

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had run at least twice that season
7 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out
10 of 10 winners had won over 7F or further
8 of 10 winner had won a group 3 or listed race (2 exceptions were placed in group 1 or 2 races)
0 of 10 winners had won a group 1 or 2
6 of 10 winners were placed in a group 1 in the past 12 months (2 of 4 exceptions had yet to run in a group 1)

Other Races
Previous season's winner: 331 (1-0-3)
Jersey Stakes winner (Rainfall): 2 (0-1-1)
Summer Mile winner (Premio Loco): 32 (0-1-2)
4 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in the St James Palace Stakes, finishing 3522
4 of 10 winners ran in the Sussex Stakes last time, finishing 3202
2 of 10 winners ran in the Hungerford Stakes last time, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in the Windsor Forrest, finishing 75
2 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 42
2 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in the Craven, finishing 21

Trainers
Michael Stoute (5-1-9) has a super record in this race having won 5 of the last 10 runnings from just 9 runners. He has trained all 3 female winners of the race.
Saeed Bin Suroor (2-1-7) saddled the winner in ’99, 06 and ’09 (later disqualified).
Marcus Tregoning (1-0-1) won this race in 2003 with his only runner in the past decade.
Richard Hannon (0-2-10) has found a couple of places from his 10 runners while all 3 of Aidan O’Brien’s (0-0-3) runners have been unplaced.

Price
9 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
The longest priced winner in the past 10 years has been 10/1 though favourites do not have a great record.
Favourites (3-3-10) have just 3 of the last 10, which is a particularly poor record when you consider that 8 of the 10 favourites were sent off 5/4 or shorter. Backing the favourites would have resulted in a level stakes loss of 5.11.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· 3yo who finished in the first 5 in St James Palace or aged 5
· Filly/mare aged 4+ trained by Michael Stoute
· Carrying no penalty
· Finished in the first 3 last time out
· Won over 7 furlongs or further
· Won at listed/group 3 (but no higher) and placed in group 1
· Ran in the Sussex or Hungerford Stakes last time out
· Trained by Stoute or Bin Suroor
· From first 4 in the betting