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Tavaris Jackson
25 Aug 10 00:42
Joined:
Date Joined: 23 Nov 06
| Topic/replies: 1,995 | Blogger: Tavaris Jackson's blog
Midday has her thread and I see St Nicholas Abbey does now too.

A more general one is required.
Plenty of contenders.

Fame and Glory
Sarafina
Sariska
Behkabad
Workforce

etc etc

and the winner...... Mischief

Planteur
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Report Extreme Conviction September 28, 2010 4:03 PM BST
I still think Marinous a massive price? Had some at 130s, but 80 seems a big price.

. Form of last run isn't bad - Redwood in behind, aswell as Goldwaki (put him close to Behkabad through him) and a well thought of Aga Khan horse who'd won a 200k grade 2 run before

.He's a may foal - so maybe he's just coming to himself as a 4 yo. And surely the fact they've now decided to run him means they must think he's improving fast

. Seems his best ground has come in the soft? Also has form over further which could be a positive as it could turn into a bit of a slog in the mud

. Has run well on his only start at the course
Report The Headmaster September 28, 2010 5:34 PM BST
There were only about three horses who who were able to run their race in the GP de D, including the first two home.  It was very messy and one of the chief sufferers was La Boum....personally I'd be looking for her to turn the form around with Marinous but the weather looks filthy and we're well overdue a bog/shock result so not trying to put you off one bit, EC.  He'll carry a few of my sheckles too.
Report BERBA September 28, 2010 5:45 PM BST
any info on whom fallon will ride in big race??
Report soapp September 28, 2010 6:37 PM BST
mightymoyes
28 Sep 10 13:25   
6 of the 28 are o'briens though, he wont run them all.


Moyses, he might as well declare them anyway. That way he will get the steep entry fees back for those that don't get in.
Report mightymoyes September 28, 2010 7:30 PM BST
true, never thought of that. how is it decided who the 20 are?
Report The Headmaster September 28, 2010 8:00 PM BST
Yes BERBA, but I can't tell you just yet until I'm matched Cool
Report The Headmaster September 28, 2010 8:04 PM BST
Stuff it, doesn't look like I'm being matched and the horse has just been done at 80 so the cat's probably out of the bag anyway.  Fallon on TIMOS...proper mudder.
Report sl72 September 28, 2010 8:07 PM BST
Workforce slowly getting bigger...
Report A_T September 29, 2010 6:23 PM BST
More heavy rain heading for Paris. It's going to be very soft on Sunday.
Report sinndar001 September 29, 2010 9:28 PM BST
Anyone give me a description of the Longchamp 5f track and the draw bias( if there is one)
Report sinndar001 September 29, 2010 9:46 PM BST
Longchamp consists of four interlocking tracks, three circular ones ranging in size and one 5f straight track.

There are ten cashpoints at the course and 180 betting booths will be in operation on the Saturday, with 332 on the Sunday.

Racegoers with children can take advantage of Longchamp's creche, which also includes baby-changing facillities, while free pony rides should keep older children entertained.

There are many restaurants at Longchamp and reservations can be made by calling +33(0)1469 93580 or +33(0)1443 07580 or online at reservations.hippodromes.@laffiche.fr.

There is also a wide range of sweet and savoury snacks, as well as five champagne bars.



Where would be only for the rp. The 5f track is str8. Great.
Report Tavaris Jackson September 29, 2010 9:55 PM BST
From memory the 5f track isn't completely straight. There is a slight left turn just before half way and the last maybe 2f is a little downhill.
Report sinndar001 September 29, 2010 10:13 PM BST
Ty Trav. So its a pretty easy 5f.
Report Tavaris Jackson September 29, 2010 10:20 PM BST
I'd wait to see if someone can back up my memory first!

It's a strange track because if you stay in the stands you're watching it on tv without even being able to see the horses at all, and if you go across to the finish line you only get to see them for a couple of furlongs and there is no tv out there to follow the start.
Report unclepuncle September 30, 2010 9:10 AM BST
Workforce announced as a definite runner.Happy

Certainly adds a bit of spice to the race.
Report Stake & Chips September 30, 2010 9:13 AM BST
Anywon got that link to the free Arc tickets? TIA
Report sintonian September 30, 2010 9:14 AM BST
Indeed.

If he wins it'll be up there with what Paul Nicholls did to get Denman to win his 2nd Hennessy,imo.
Report the lay preacher September 30, 2010 9:22 AM BST
when you consider he is rated at least on a par with harbinger
and if he had never ran in the king george he would have been about a 9/4 chance just now it really does put the cat among the pipeons.
Report fuzzyone September 30, 2010 9:25 AM BST
Would genuine soft ground be a benefit to the chances of Workforce? I certainly think Bekhabad will be suited.
Report banksy September 30, 2010 10:34 AM BST
Stakey: http://www.prixarcdetriomphe.com/Invitation.pdf
Report banksy September 30, 2010 10:35 AM BST
http://www.prixarcdetriomphe.com/Invitation.pdf
Report banksy September 30, 2010 10:35 AM BST
FFS

on.pdf
Report Stake & Chips September 30, 2010 11:22 AM BST
Thanks banksy
Report johnnyrant September 30, 2010 11:35 AM BST
Workforce will love the soft ground. It's what he wants. The quick ground was a major reason why he under-performed in KG.
Report The Headmaster September 30, 2010 12:00 PM BST
I think we should note the difference between a nice bit of soft ground where horses can get their toe in and the potential quagmire coming up on Sunday.  Personally, I'm hoping for it to be Heavy, unraceable in places.
Report Sandown September 30, 2010 12:48 PM BST
Workforce running increases the risk factor because of the uncertainty. He is capable of winning or going very close based on his Epsom form. The ground should help him as has the right action for it. It may have been the fast round at Ascot but it was also the fact that he had a very hard race at Epsom imo and looked less physically imposing at Ascot. Is he back to best or not? He has to be covered whatever if you are making a book.
Report Sica Dan September 30, 2010 1:35 PM BST
They are not exactly piling into Workforce,if he really was back to his best
surely those mythical dogs would be barking.
Report Tavaris Jackson September 30, 2010 2:52 PM BST
Is Midas Touch a likely runner?

If he was in there as a pacemaker on bad ground I'd consider a small bet that he could hang on for a place.
Report Waiting for Godot September 30, 2010 6:41 PM BST
AOB interviewed on RTE in last couple of minutes
Confirms three  intended  runners in Arc-Fame and Glory,Cape Blanco and Midas Touch
One other likely to run,possibly Dixie Music
Report A_T September 30, 2010 6:47 PM BST

sintonian     Joined: 21 Sep 04
Replies: 7864 30 Sep 10 09:14 
Indeed.

If he wins it'll be up there with what Paul Nicholls did to get Denman to win his 2nd Hennessy,imo.


I always thought Stoute getting Golan to win the King George first time out was extremely impressive.

Report Kevbetting superstar September 30, 2010 10:05 PM BST
Thanks for running Workforce, ensures better price for Behkabad.
Report Stotsfold September 30, 2010 10:06 PM BST
Workforce 6/1 must be one of the worst bets of the season. 16/1 would be skinny enough. No chance.
Report Masterminded September 30, 2010 10:55 PM BST
Laugh
Report Masterminded September 30, 2010 10:55 PM BST
plz lay every1 16s
Report Tavaris Jackson September 30, 2010 10:57 PM BST
Split the difference and 10-11/1 would be a fair price. In fairness 6/1 is very very skinny considering the evidence.
Report Masterminded September 30, 2010 11:07 PM BST
agreed^ 10s would be fair
Report Angela Rebecchi September 30, 2010 11:21 PM BST
Really like the look of a few of the bigger priced horses here...
Report A_T October 1, 2010 8:16 AM BST
Duncan Cool
Report the lay preacher October 1, 2010 8:27 AM BST
looks like midas is the pace maker for fame and glory .
i think they are trying to do what they did when fame and glory won the irish derby with an end to end gallop to bring his stamina into play.can see fame being right up there and then kicking from the final bend.
Report Graeme83 October 1, 2010 3:49 PM BST
The closer we get the more i think Workforce can do it. I'm expecting a big run from him.
Report sintonian October 1, 2010 3:55 PM BST
i've backed him. prepared to be called a mugg,vanker, and anything else.

He wins or comes nowhere imo

shades of Binocular in the Champion Hurdle.
Report tobermory October 1, 2010 5:20 PM BST
Has anyone here backed Plumania ?

Priced the race up on Monday without looking at the market , and just going by her form in the book, without  having seen her run , arrived at the price of 13/1 . Mischief

Look at the market and she was 64/1! Thought i must have gone wrong somewhere with her and one or two others and would go over it again later in the week  .Now 29/1  Cry

Still think she is overpriced and has a similar profile to Urban Sea , having improved a lot from 3-4 but not actually watched any French Racing this year . I maybe missing something but gutted to miss the big price and probably won't bother now.
Report soapp October 1, 2010 7:26 PM BST
Fame and Glory for me.

Laid out for the race.  Bekhabad or Planteur for the forecast.

Don't know a thing about the japs but it might do for the triple
Report Beryl October 1, 2010 7:52 PM BST
I know I am very biased because I have backed Planteur but how about this for a stat;

14 of the last 16 winners were draw 7 or lower. The two that were drawn higher ;

Dalakhani drawn 14 of 13 and Sakhee drawn 15 of 17
Report Fela Kuti October 2, 2010 6:40 AM BST
If Fabre has got Lope De Vega back to his best then he is an extremely big price particularly as Billy Hill are doing 25/1 1/3 odds e/w
Report El Apache October 2, 2010 8:32 AM BST
Plumania

Backed this earlier this week.

Trained by a master and has the right man on board. Anyone who fancied Midday should have a look at this mare as she gave Midday a decent race last time.
Report bazzar October 2, 2010 8:45 AM BST
Beryl, facts must be wrong, Dalakhani 14th of 13?
Report bazzar October 2, 2010 8:55 AM BST
Checked and indeed Dalakhani was alotted the number 14 stall, but before the race a horse was withdrawn and so 13 ran.
Report bazzar October 2, 2010 8:57 AM BST
Last year Cavalryman was drawn 19 of 19, can anyone tell me if Dettori raced mostly on the outside of the field, or did he drop him in behind?
Report Viva Pataca October 2, 2010 9:29 AM BST
The one I keep coming back to at the prices is Lope De Vega.

Obviosuly there are two big questions:
1. Has Fabre got him back to his best?
2. Will he get the trip?

But if the answers to the above were both "yes", then he'd be about 6/4!
Report sintonian October 2, 2010 10:49 AM BST
Tobemory , I backed Plumania earlier in the week when blu squire went NRNB, 33/1. Said on another thread I think she has left her 3yo form behind and improved this season. When she was runner-up to midday she had not run for over 10 weeks so likely to improve a tadge aswell. Not a good draw though.
Report gart October 2, 2010 10:49 AM BST
victoire pisa from japan
and pouvoir absolu ; can quicken in soft, monster price that one.
gl. ta very much
Report gart October 2, 2010 10:50 AM BST
i'd go evens the front 4 fwiw.
Report tobermory October 2, 2010 3:44 PM BST
wd Apache and Sintonian in getting on earler , think i have missed the boat with Plumania due to dithering

Gart,  i thought Pouvoir Absolu was a big price too but someone said just a pacemaker for Planteur.
Report Figgis October 2, 2010 4:37 PM BST
Going description looks spot on for a change, judging by the times.
Report Figgis October 2, 2010 4:39 PM BST
The course can sometimes dry quickly though. The going was a good deal softer on the Saturday before Sakhee won on the Sunday.
Report Sandown October 2, 2010 5:33 PM BST
Figgis

I think its the saved ground (10m)on the far rail which doen't get used through the summer which rides faster rather than course drying. Anyway, I agree its very soft - as soft as it was for Montjeu's Arc on my figs - which was effectively heavy. One thing for sure it will place a premium on stamina rather than pace.
Report TD_Gunner October 2, 2010 5:34 PM BST
Who have you backed in this Figgis ?
Report Figgis October 2, 2010 5:58 PM BST
Yes you're probably right about that Sandown. I don't think Rock of Gibraltar's time was too bad though and I'm not sure if that trip would be as affected by rail movements?
I've just had a hopeful each way bet on Duncan, TD. I'll also be having a small bet on Cape Blanco. If I had to try to pick the most likely winner I'd side with F&G but I won't be backing him at the price, nothing would surprise me if the ground stays as soft as it was today.
Report Viva Pataca October 2, 2010 7:22 PM BST
What do you lads make of Lope De Vega?

Do the speed figures give him a chance?
Report Figgis October 2, 2010 8:25 PM BST
Has a few pounds to find with Behkabad and Planteur, added to the 2 recent below par runs and stamina doubts, looks to have it all to do.
Report Viva Pataca October 2, 2010 8:32 PM BST
His French Derby win was so impressive though, easing into the lead and not seeing another horse for the whole straight. In fact Guyon could afford to ease off in the final 75 yards. The ground was soft that day as well.

The 2 below par runs are slightly negated by the fact that Fabre is letting him take his chance, which must mean he's showing something at home.

I think he'll have no problem finding those few pounds Figgis, if back at his best...!!
Report Stotsfold October 3, 2010 8:55 AM BST
9/2 Behkabad an astonishing price. Empty that piggy bank and GET ON
Report bazzar October 3, 2010 9:37 AM BST
The more I re-search the ARC the more I am convinced that Cavalryman is the one.
His first 8 races were run on right hand courses,(correct me if I am wrong)with some give a seeming requirement.
This season he has only run right handed once, but on good to firm and at a distance of 10 furlongs, is it any wonder he was beaten out of sight?
For the first time since STS's ARC, he has got the requirements needed, his draw may be a plus, but I believe that the draw is yet another negative to place before the punter, I suspect these ideas are fostered by bookmakers and of course McCririck.
As an afterthought, to overcome these possible blocks to winning a race, is the very reason trainers employ jockeys, the more a jockey thinks, will in most cases return the winner.
Report Deptford October 3, 2010 9:49 AM BST
Fame And Glory will win, better and different preparation to last year
Report sinndar001 October 3, 2010 10:13 AM BST
S-Cloud is left handed bazzar.
Report Graeme83 October 3, 2010 11:09 AM BST
Plantuer backers who got a decent price must be looking forward to a big run. If we accept that  his loses against Behkabad were on a false going he will like the real Vsft conditions today. As the trainer seems confident and acknowledges the ground is in his favour then it's going to take a good one to beat him. This Arc has my mind spinning like a yoyo.


I've made a right clown of things with regards to who i see winning. My final prediction is...


Planteur
Workforce
Fame & Glory
Report trigg October 3, 2010 11:21 AM BST
Lope de vega. Has been suppilemented so Fabre must believe its back to the form of its run away French Derby win.Will improve for the trip Cracking odds
Report bazzar October 3, 2010 11:55 AM BST
Thanks for the info, sinndar.
Report Trusty October 3, 2010 12:59 PM BST
what does Lopa have to find with Planteur? Beat him at levels by 3L and levels again today.

Stonking chance imo at with Planteur at 7.8 and lopa at 23 I'll take my chance on the value.
Report Figgis October 3, 2010 1:38 PM BST
5f time was pretty quick, the round course times are much slower but it doesn't appear as slow as yesterday, even allowing for the fresh ground.
Report bestmate October 3, 2010 1:58 PM BST
Behkabad trainer form stinks now. stay away
Report metro john October 3, 2010 2:06 PM BST
Lope De Vega does seem to be the true 12f+ horde in the race and those lesser efforts at 8f due to lack of stamina test, looks amazing price at the moment e/w more on the place.Cool
Report Charlton2005 October 3, 2010 3:00 PM BST
Hope everyone is well.
Minor interest bet for me, Lope De Vega E/W
GL all
Report tobermory October 3, 2010 3:04 PM BST
My ratings into prices method has produced a scattergun approach....

£5 Lope De Vega 26
£3 Cape Blanco 12.5
£3.50 Plumania 34
£2.50 Duncan 48
£2  Midas Touch 60
£2 Timos 210
£2 Wiener Walzer 330

Happy
Report Figgis October 3, 2010 3:13 PM BST
Well done Workforce backers.
Report sintonian October 3, 2010 3:14 PM BST
Laugh

get in
Report A_T October 3, 2010 3:15 PM BST
Maybe my pocket talking but the best horse came third - Sarafina was almost brought down as they entered the straight - did very well to finish as close as she did.
Report TD_Gunner October 3, 2010 3:18 PM BST
Well done sint.
Report sintonian October 3, 2010 3:20 PM BST
cheers gun.

only broke even over the weekend though. Plain
Report Angela Rebecchi October 3, 2010 3:24 PM BST
Back   
Your
Odds
Your
Stake
Your
Profit
Nakayama Festa    48.92    £650.00    £31,150.00

well done workforce backers

CryCry
Report unclepuncle October 3, 2010 3:29 PM BST
You could have laid it off during the Stewards Enquiry.
Report Angela Rebecchi October 3, 2010 3:30 PM BST
I did bud. Not quite the same smashing a 1/10 winner than smashing a 50/1 winner. LaughCry
Report unclepuncle October 3, 2010 3:39 PM BST
If you could have switched the jockeys at the furlong pole the Japanese horse would have prevailed - Ryan Moore was the difference.
Report sintonian October 3, 2010 3:41 PM BST
Hope they keep him in-training, has so much scope. Could do back-to-back Arcs.
Report unclepuncle October 3, 2010 3:42 PM BST
I'd be amazed if they did Sint - would be nice but just can't see it happenng.
Report Angela Rebecchi October 3, 2010 3:43 PM BST
My thoughts entirely unclepuncle, Japenese horse was closing again in the last 15 yards, Moore would have carried him across the line first. Cry
Report Angela Rebecchi October 3, 2010 3:48 PM BST
very depressing, got about 10 people on that horse, would have been my finest hour, not to be. Cry
Report MrDinos October 3, 2010 3:58 PM BST
I'm pretty gutted my self Ang! Backed Nakayama Festa three times at 33-1 EW after the Prix Foy , I really thought it was their year to win it.  Japanese jocks are not the best in a finish and that's the chance you take when backing them!!! Sad
Report Angela Rebecchi October 3, 2010 4:03 PM BST
100% spot on. Just too weak in the finish. My heart wasn't even pumping, I kind of knew my fate when he was up against Moore, the fact the horse rebattled always makes me think, what if, reckon Buick would have won that by a length on Nak Cry
Report MrDinos October 3, 2010 4:12 PM BST
Fallon on board there would have been no doubt who would have won!!!! It's a shame because Mr Ebina rode the perfect race up until the last furlong!!! Oh well that's racing!
Report johnnyrant October 3, 2010 6:06 PM BST
Workforce undoubtedly the best horse in the race. You are all clutching at straws and talking through your pockets
Report unclepuncle October 3, 2010 6:37 PM BST
I didn't back the **** horse (in fact had never even heard of it until it about 1f outSilly) - Ryan Moore must be worth 1/2L + in a driving finish so imho the jockey made all the difference to the result.
Report unclepuncle October 3, 2010 6:38 PM BST
*** = Japanese
Report ben10 October 3, 2010 6:48 PM BST
Worth noting that the Japanese horse is quite a quirky sort.
Well done Workforce backers, nice to see the Derby wasn't a fluke and can be remembered as a classy win as well as visually awesome.
Report Angela Rebecchi October 3, 2010 6:55 PM BST
Rubbish JR, everyone knows and can see that Moore gets a length out of a horse time and time again in a final furlong. Unfortunately it hurt more than ever this time Sad
Report TD_Gunner October 3, 2010 7:41 PM BST
Have to agree with Angela, the strength of the jockeys was the difference imo.
Report sintonian October 4, 2010 8:48 AM BST
Jockeys made a diff, but no doubting who the better horse is. Workforce had not run since the summer, had no prep race, and still lightly raced.
Report Masterminded October 4, 2010 1:50 PM BST
What a horse what a day. Happy
Report cryoftruth October 5, 2010 5:26 PM BST
Interesting that Mordin's confident Arc forcast Bekhabad to beat Planteur was as accurate as his other predictions. They were both simply not of the quality nor had the form to win the Arc.

I note this just becasue Mordin is often quoted on here and his articles written with such arrogance I fear people lose money because of him.

I wiould advise back the horses he is against and lay the ones like bekhabad that he is all over.
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