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Tavaris Jackson
25 Aug 10 00:42
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Date Joined: 23 Nov 06
| Topic/replies: 1,995 | Blogger: Tavaris Jackson's blog
Midday has her thread and I see St Nicholas Abbey does now too.

A more general one is required.
Plenty of contenders.

Fame and Glory
Sarafina
Sariska
Behkabad
Workforce

etc etc

and the winner...... Mischief

Planteur

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By:
Mooono
When: 25 Aug 10 02:59
I fancy Sarafina or Planteur..But if the ground comes up soft and she isnt being a randy mare then Sariska..I can just picture Spencer cruising in behind the pace getting trapped behind a wall of 50 horses..And then he pulls Sariska to the outside and rattles home waving at them like he did in the Irish Oaks..
By:
Beryl
When: 25 Aug 10 20:44
TJ, did you see Planteur's last run and the way he reacted when the jockey used the whip. He lost all momentum which ultimately cost him the race. He still looks very green to me.

I don't doubt his talent but if he reacts like that in the Arc then he has no chance, and I can't see him winning the Arc on the bridle.

Plus, he has never won a group 1. When was the last time a horse has gone into this race and won it without having a already won a group 1? I bet it's quite awhile ago.

I hope I am wrong as I backed him for the Arc before his last race.
By:
Tavaris Jackson
When: 25 Aug 10 21:00
I'm hoping that is all part of the learning process Beryl!

I have no idea what the stats are for horses that haven't won a G1 before hand but would imagine that they wouldn't be too uncommon. Getting the typical French 3 year old prep for the race would be French Derby - Grand Prix de Paris - Niel.

A decent showing in the early season races and improve past the winners of those in the G2 Niel before landing the Arc!


I'm choosing to see Rewilding's run in the Voltiguer as a very big compliment to Planteur. I don't see the older horses as great and the GB&I 3 year old bunch look poor.

Normal improvement, don't shy away from the whip and beat Behkabad might just be enough..
By:
thelatarps
When: 26 Aug 10 11:19
Sagamix 98
won Arc with only a G2 (the Niel) to his name, I believe
By:
thelatarps
When: 26 Aug 10 14:42
Picked up a book in a 2nd hand bookshop
'Lester Piggott' by Julian Wilson

Some excerpts concerning Longchamp

" The Arc is a difficult race to win. It is the championship of Europe, run late in the year over a course that has no clearly defined method of riding.
More often than not the British horses challenging for the Arc are over the top after a long season. A notable case in point being the mighty Troy. THe French classic horses are rested during July & August and brought back fresh for an autumn campaign.
..On several occasions he (LP) rode outstanding horses that were not equipped for the race...
3 wins from 27 rides up to 1984 by his standards is a disappointment. Furthermore on 4 occasions he was beaten less than a length - on Ribocco, Park TOp, Nijinsky & Ardross.
..Unlike the Derby, the Arc does not have a classic riding formula. For a start, the going can vary from good to heavy
.. Secondly the pace varies from year to year.
.. A problem faces those drawn on the wide outside. In france the rules state that a horse lying prominent must run straight for the first two furlongs. (Is this still true?) So does a jockey jump off, run wide, and edge over after 2 or 3 furlongs? Or does he drop out of the back and try to thread through close to the rails?
  I believe that Piggott has never ridden a better race in the Arc than on Ardross, on 3 October 1982, but he had to wait until Ardross, a stayer, was ready to go. As with Ribocco, the distance of the race was one hundred yards too short, with Ardross finishing second.
  Such a horse is at a great disadvantage in that the French like to coil up their horses running down the hill with 3 & 1/2 furlongs left to race and propel them for home in the short 2 and a half furlong straight. A stayer who doesnt quicken immediately, or a filly like Park Top, who needs to be covered up is liable to get left behind. Ardross wan never checked and was never more than one horse from the rail."

Sorry to walk all over the fred TJ but thought it was worth sharing.

PS
This is Julian Wilson on what he did after Piggott won the derby on Sir Ivor:
"That evening I visited a friend who had viewed the race through a haze of marijuana. SHe told me it was the biggest 'turn-on' she had ever experienced"
The dirty dog
By:
town moor
When: 26 Aug 10 15:58
I've got that book on a shelf somewhere. In Nijinsky's defence he had just won the Leger which will probably never be attempted again before an Arc.
By:
zilzal1
When: 26 Aug 10 16:47
Reference Point tried it as well
By:
town moor
When: 26 Aug 10 16:59
Indeed he did, we liked him so much around here, they named a bar after him.
By:
Tavaris Jackson
When: 26 Aug 10 19:52
Definitely worth sharing thelatarps, really fascinating stuff!

I recently watched a documentary on Nijinsky, town moor and from the mouth of Vincent O'Brien, the Leger was a prep for the Arc!
By:
dananders
When: 27 Aug 10 18:38
sariska on the snaff
By:
Extreme Conviction
When: 27 Aug 10 19:00
Anyone reckon Cavalryman could be in with a shout?

Only found Sea The Stars and Youmzain too good last year, and it must be remembered he had a shocking draw.

Had a mid season break (2 months off between Ascot and York) and looked to be coming back to his best when only 5l or so behind Rip, Twice Over and Byword under a considerate ride. Back over 12f and with some cut will only see him improve more and can easily see him run a big race. He finished way ahead of Fame and Glory last year and is 10x the price.
By:
ilikewavingatbuses
When: 27 Aug 10 20:39
Planteur!
By:
San Quentin
When: 28 Aug 10 08:24
i belive no horse that has ran and been beating has ever went on to win the race the following year.So cavalryman is a no.
By:
jair1970
When: 28 Aug 10 08:37
Look no further than Behkabad surely?
Can't see how anyone can fancy Planteur over this one.
And let's remind ourselves that 'soft' ground is by no means the odds on shot that people seem to think it is every year...
By:
Beryl
When: 28 Aug 10 09:01
Jair, Planteur had finished ahead of Behkabad previously. Behkabad arguably had the run of the race last time.

Also ground was very soft last time which may have suited Behkabad more than Planteur. Plus Planteur ran very green (I'm hoping TJ is right and he will have learnt from the experience).

They finished 5 lengths ahead of the third last time. I think it's solid form and they along with Sarafina are the ones to beat.
By:
El Apache
When: 28 Aug 10 09:32
Rip Van Winkle

Surely this horse is worth a crack.

May improve further with a step up to 12 furlongs - look back at his run in the Derby behind Sea The Stars.Even his run in the Juddmonte suggests a step up in trip will suit.
By:
windsor knot
When: 28 Aug 10 23:26
el , you are spot on but commercial strings dictate a 12f race is worth nothing now. champion for him .
By:
Graeme83
When: 29 Aug 10 08:34
^^^ given that he's won at 8f & 10f, i thought 12f is exactly what they would want for commercial value ???
By:
bazzar
When: 29 Aug 10 08:53
I remember LESTER turning down the ride on ALL ALONG and at the time I remarked that, GREAT JOCKEY though LESTER is, he is not a GREAT WEATHER FORECASTER, he expected soft to heavy going so W.SWINBURN got the ride, to complete the middle leg of an ante post treble, the first being, POLLY'S BROTHER (AYR GOLD CUP) and BAJAN SUNSHINE
(CESAREWITCH).
By:
El Apache
When: 29 Aug 10 09:00
RVP

Why not Juddmonte - Irish Champion - Arc route just like Sea the Stars.
By:
the lay preacher
When: 29 Aug 10 10:20
all these horses that are worth a crack never amount to more than a hill of beans .
horses that win arcs are laid out for the race ie fame of glory this year unlike last year when he was over the top.
By:
windsor knot
When: 29 Aug 10 16:10
san quentin...in 1982 all along was 15th, then beat 25 others in '83 to win the arc.tony bin was 2nd in '87 and won it in '88... can't think of many others  though in fairness.motrico was 4th in 1928,then won it in 1930 retired to stud then came back to win it in 1932!...
By:
Sherlocks Lovechild (BB)
When: 29 Aug 10 18:18
Do we not consider Rewilding and Joshua Tree - both improving and not over raced ?
By:
visionario
When: 29 Aug 10 18:22
Sarafina . The class horse and winner
By:
Beryl
When: 30 Aug 10 11:47
Shimraan's bubble burst at Deuville yesterday coming 4th in a Group 2.

Goldwaki was a place behind him but probably can be forgiven his run due to poor ride he received. Still, can't seem him threatening the principals in the Arc.
By:
jair1970
When: 30 Aug 10 21:19
Planteur finished in front of Behkabad over 1m2f...
Not relevant here. These are young horses progressing, and it seems Behkabad is progressing faster to me.

I'd take a classy straightforward animal with a verdict over a classy non-straightforward animal every time.
By:
El Apache
When: 31 Aug 10 20:13
Rip Van Winkle

The more I look at this race leads me to beleive it is there for the taking for RVW . Does not look a vintage renewal . Surely an impressive display in the Irish Champion will make Ballydoyle consider the Arc.
By:
brigust1
When: 31 Aug 10 20:57
San Quentin: Allez France.
Beaten by Rhiengold in 1973 then went on to win in '74. Brilliant filly.
By:
Keano2
When: 31 Aug 10 22:00
If RVW runs in the Arc and the ground is good he pisses in
By:
dananders
When: 31 Aug 10 22:50
dont know about pi sses in but hed go very close.v dont think the plan will be to run though. im pretty confident rip is a better horse than fame and glory
By:
wondersobright
When: 31 Aug 10 23:12
Rip is far more likely to go Champion Stakes/Breeders Cup.

Fame And Glory looks made for Longchamp.
By:
brigust1
When: 01 Sep 10 05:46
I think it will be a poor race if either win the Arc. Surely there must be something better around?
By:
cryoftruth
When: 01 Sep 10 09:30
interesting musings on the Arc.
I find it quite hard to split Bekhabad and Planteur, and the latter may therfore be value at current odds.
Assuming Midday does not run (and that might change after she thrashes all the other fillies in the prix Vermeille (here's hoping); I am not sure that the top half dozen in the betting are that brilliant. The one mentioned by Sherlock below that is interesting is Rewilding.

Its most unusual for a leger runner to do well in the Arc, and that's not surprising given the standard of most leger runners these days and the fact that the leger is quite close to the Arc. However Rewilding looks pretty decent to me - his York win was really most impressive and Midas Touch gives the Voltigeur form a really solid look to it. Rewilding thrashed Midas Touch at York, with the improving Joshua Tree too far back to be be considered likely to reverse in the near future. If Rewilding wins the Leger comfortably, as seems fairly likely, there would be a big temptation for him to be supplemented for the Arc, especially as it really does not look a vintage year, with no outstanding older horses, and most of the 3yo's looking below average.

Of course the chances are that Rewilding will not go for the Arc, but if he did run the 30/1 or whatever he is on here would look about 20 points too long. If his next race after York had been announced as being the Arc rather than the leger, he would be disputing second favoritism now.
By:
brigust1
When: 01 Sep 10 10:11
If you think Rewilding has a chance Cry you must look at Cavalryman who I think FD will ride.
He is a genuine Gr1 horse who ran a good race, compared with this years runners, last year.
His stint in Dubai was on too fast ground (1) and too short a trip (1). Even so he was well fancied and never beaten far by Gr1 animals.
Returning to the UK he was unlucky in the Coronation not to have finished a lot closer then suffered an injury at Ascot.
His return to action at York behind RVW was very creditable considering it was on fast ground and he sat last in a muddling race. Ran on well and not bothered close home. Was definitely looked after.
A soft Gr1 in Germany in the next 2 weeks should set him up for the Arc perfectly.
Also a bigger price on here than Rewilding.
By:
sintonian
When: 01 Sep 10 11:43
Rewilding wont be going for the ARc. Crisford all but virtually ruled it out.
By:
sintonian
When: 02 Sep 10 15:31
Sariska has passed a recnt stalls test at Newmarket recently.
By:
sintonian
When: 02 Sep 10 15:31
Not enough use of the word recently there imo.
By:
dananders
When: 02 Sep 10 16:34
that true sint? i no she worked with highland legacy other day ?
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 02 Sep 10 16:53
saw same about Sariska - left stalls both without and with jockey, no bother.

Last time I looked her price had drifted 4-8 points presumably on basis she might not come out stalls - seems an overreaction to me.

Think I'm falling in love with Midday though - cat'll be amongst the pigeons if she wins Vermeille after Snow Fairy wins Leger.
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