Why Midday must go for the Arc

disagree. theres different excuse everytime sariska beats her

Sriska leads 3-1. Ther Irish Oaks excuse was fair enough - it was a bog. The Oaks was a fair win for Sariska imo. This years first race at York needed no excuse -  idday had to coincede weight and was perhaps the better fily at the weights in any event. However Midday last two performances and definitely the Yorkshire Oaks was a performance tha topped anything she or Sariska have ever done before, she has improved and may improve further.

"In my view this makes her a very very likely Arc winner"

Fillies winning Arcs - very tough.
Trend has been for 3yos winning, usually French trained 3yos.
After 14 starts, Midday is quite exposed now.

These are my negatives.

Digging around, how the York form has been rated, a peak-form Midday has around 4lb to find with a peak-form Fame And Glory, and (WFA adjusted) around 5lb to find with HH Aga Khan's 3yo.

wonder

I think that's fair enough, but Midday is hard to rate because a bit like Sea The Stars last year she tends to stop trying when she has left the others behind. I believe she is quite a bit better than she has shown.

The Arc is historically not that hard for fillies to win, I can think of quite a few that have won the Arc - Allez France, Zarkava, Urban Sea, I think Dahlia won it, so did All Along and there were some I forget I think.

This compares very well to a number of other races - QE11, Nunthorpe, Irish Champion Stakes, York's International, or the King George

Midday seems to stay 12f very well now, and i would love to see her in the Arc. She is in peak form right now. Would they not be thinking about the Breeders again though.

I think she would win the Arc., The stronger pace and the big field would help her.

I am of the view that she is under rated. She has an amazing turn of foot and has been made to look less brilliant than she is because nothing has really been able to keep her from running away with her races by the 2 furlong pole, meaning she sets for home too soon.

Midday has never raced against Colts before.

I'd rather see her go for the Classic.
Cecil has made it clear he doesnt want to go back with TO(keep him for Dubai WC), a fast run 10f is Midday's best trip, and would love to see Zenyetta try and waltz by her.

I personally think her best trip is a mile and a half - just on the basis that her Yorkshire Oaks thrashing of Snow Fairy looks her best effort yet.

I agree with COT, she's a better filly this year and I reckon there's more to come, would be a very strong contender for the Arc.

Agree with cot - would be a huge runner in the Arc imo.  Not sure what the jockey and trainer are on about....suggesting she'll have to be wound up so tight for Longchamp it'll somehow put her future success as a broodmare in jeopardy?!?

Its all about the ground, Midday needs fast ground and im not sure she will get that in the arc.

Not anymore, IS.

Sariska wouldn't have beaten her yesterday, they should go for the Arc, Bit of cut, couldn't see her out of the first 4.

midday best performance before yesterday was at Goodwood last year when she won the Nassau Stakes for the first time and the going was quite soft that day. Midday does not need a real bog, and will not go well on very firm, otherwise she is okay.

I am in the middle of writing a letter to Sir Henry to try and convince him to go for the Arc.

Prix Foy next then?

small field, nice pace, nice prep and a chance against a few washed up colts.

Midday is a very decent filly but commercially it would be worth so much more to Juddmonte if their derby winner Workforce or Prince of Wales winner Byword could add the arc to their previous group 1. when midday retires to the paddocks it wont make much difference if her at the end of the season shed added an arc or bc race to her haul. By the way downallstars comment about the classic is food for thought, i also think that zen would have her work cut out to pass Midday.

Agree with your first part topweight - they already have two colts for this, Byword def goes, and so will Wf if all is well.

Do hope Midday goes for the Classic though...

I have a small doubt as to whtehr we'll see WF again this season. His Derby run is going to take a lot of getting over and I would not be surprised if we sim him,rejuvenated,as a 4 year old. He is still very Scopey.imo

Stacelita must be a cert in the in Deauville ..

Yeah, Goodwood 2nd and 3rd franked the form today in France.

One more point on Midday and fillies in the Arc.

I don't doubt Midday is high-class. Show me a multiple Group 1 winner that isn't.

However, my point was that(the great) Zarkava is the only winning filly in the Arc in 16 years. 3yos won 13/16 in that time. Hence, a typical Arc winner is a 3yo colt, not an older filly. Fair point?

If Midday were to win the Arc then this must surely be one hell of a shout.

But we know we can think ourselves into a complete stuper at a certain result to a race.

Arc comes to close to her main target as we know.....but she does need quickish ground to show her best form.

1M 4f on good to soft.   She will not beat Sariska home

Sarafina will win the arc , I hope she takes her chance and I am sure she will . The Aga knows he has a good colt but equally exceptional filly !

midday is a cracking filly but she aint no zarkava and thats how good a filly has to be to win the arc i will be surprised if she even runs.

one other thing you dont win arc/s on afterthoughts it has to be the plan for the whole season as we have seen so many times in the past.

Midday has had 3 runs this year, the Nassau wasn't run at much of a pace, she's hardly had a tough season.

Dylan Thomas and Sea the Stars have both won it off the back of gruelling campaigns in the recent past.

Fame & Glory wins the Arc imo, a much improver horse as a 4yo, Gnd mot an issue, 12f is his trip, was probably over the top last season, but still ran ok. Given a nice mid season break - ok he's is fav now, but I've been banging on about him all year.

Why do you think F&G has improved Downallstar? I don't think the Coronation Cup win was any better than his Irish Champion 2nd.

ffs, she's got no chance in the Arc. lovely mare, won't beat the colts. HRAC knows it, BC F/M in the bag.

He is a much stronger, bigger horse this year Figgis. His win in the CC was the run of a very tough horse, he was in front a long way out on ground that was probably too quick for him, and he kept them at bay.
He has no STS to try and beat every race this year, and is def settling better this yr(pulled to hard in the Arc last year).
His run the last day was a well worked by APOB, they could have turned that into a waltz, but instead they made the pacemakers work him, that'll blow the cobwebs away.

There were only a few lbs between that CC run and the IC run of last year, but so far he hasn't needed to go into the 130's, will he need to to win the Arc?

Aidan said recently he always thought F&G would be better on decent ground, so the going in the Coronation would have been plum for him (good).  He beat Sariska 1 1/2 lengths, held, but change the going a fraction to Good to Soft and wouldn't be hard to imagine her turning the form around imo. Her main target has been the Arc ALL SEASON. Since she won the Irish Oaks, in fact. She has the build of a Colt too.

Do you yhink she deserves to be 5 times the price of F&G, Downallstar ?

i would give sariska a better chance than midday for the arc as well sint .you are correct in what you say about **** being a better horse on good ground its just that it is an awful hard race for a filly to win and the rumours are going about she might not even run again.
for what its worth i think obrien will have **** trained to the minute this year unlike last year when he was probably over the top.
i expect **** to win i have been to the last 7 arcs and have only seen 1 run on soft going its usually good fast ground there contrary to popular belief.

ffs fame and glory.

from Bells website, Lay preacher.



The yard was certainly a somber place yesterday afternoon after SARISKA failed to jump from the stalls and contest her race in the Yorkshire Oaks. I think it is fair to say that we are all gutted and we did not think that something like this would happen and she would behave like this as it is so out of character. She has comeback from York in one piece and we will see how she is over the next few days. She went out on exercise as normal this morning and cantered up Warren Hill. In the words of Baldrick from Blackadder we have a cunning plan to get her back and let everyone see the superstar she is again. It was great that even though we did not win, MIDDAY won and she certainly deserves all the success that comes her way and it would be great to meet her again when our filly is back on song.

i hope she does come back as she is defo top class as spencer has said a few times she doesnt need soft ground just a little bit of give thats all ie slow side of good .i wonder where they will go next with her.any ideas surely they wont just turn up at the arc.

from Queally's blog ..

It's been a fantastic week at York for a variety of reasons, but of course the highlight was Midday winning the Darley Yorkshire Oaks on Thursday.



People will say my job was made easier by Sariska refusing to race and I honestly had no idea what had happened in the stalls. I was obviously trying to keep an eye out for her as I saw her as the main danger and I took a peep with two to run and couldn't see her. But I wasn't going to look around for too long as I had a race to win.



Whatever will be, will be, and while those people might think my job was made easier, I reckon Sariska would have had to be at her very, very best - probably better than she's ever been before - to give us something to think about, let alone beat us.



Of course, racing is all about opinions, and that's mine. Sure, it would have been interesting if Sariska had raced but what I will say is that it was a breathtaking performance from Midday. I really wanted some company but found myself in front again too early as she was cantering with two furlongs to go and nothing could go with her.



She idled a bit in front again, but that's only because nothing was giving her a race. I think she's the best filly in Europe. I know the Arc has been mentioned but she would have to be so wound up to take on the best colts in Europe, that you'd worry about the race leaving a lasting mark.



It's obviously up to the Prince (Khalid Abdulla) and Henry (Cecil), but I think the Breeders' Cup is the main aim again, and it's a huge ask for her to run in both. That said it's an honour to swing my leg over her, whatever the race is, and I see either the Vermeille and Opera are also options.

Sint - that Good for the CC is surely wrong, was a blistering hot day, Track record the next day!!?
Going was GF!
Soft ground is not a concern for him, and I doubt Sariska would beat him on any ground.
And after her antic's the other day I wouldn't be backing her Ante Post.
Am happy to back the best horse in the race regardless.

midday is in my view about 4 lbs behind Zarkava and she may be even better than that and still improving. I think the people who believe that she would struggle to beat sariska on soft going etc are just underestimating Midday's York win. It is not just that she is a multiple group 1 winner. Its that she absolutely outclassed the best middle distance and dual classic winning filly snow fairy, in fact as TQ says, she has struggled to get a race in which the opposition seems able to stop her cantering into the lead at the 2 furlong marker let alone giving her a decent race.

Its from the evidence of your own eyes and the form book that makes Midday an absolute knocker in the Arc and I actually think that on reflection, connections will decide to go - it would be thr right thing logically to take in the Arc and when a choice is logical and sensible, its usually the one that is taken.

Her CV will not be enhanced by winning again in the USA, and its quite fitting for henry to get his first Arc with a filly he has brought on with all his massive skill to this point of brilliance.

Another minor point. if she took in the Arc, as she should, and then went to the Breeders Cup, as so many have, her 5 race programme for 2010 would not be one that could be accused of having over raced her or having been greedy or ripping the heart out of her. it would be an entirely;y correct route for a filly of such demonstrable class. In other words, if she was my filly she would take in both especially as the USA race is likely to be a penalty kick in the fillies and mares turf.

Das, im completely agree with you re the ground in the CC. I remember that day and was worrying in the build-up to the race about Sariska handling it because it was blistering sunshine and very warm as you say. Even more reason to fancy her turning the form around [;)]

Cry, think they have confirmed he next race today. Prix Vermeille ( she could meet Sariska again) and then to America.

BC Fillies and Mares Turf is a non-event IMO. With such a good filly they try for something better.

I'm surprised by the Vermeille option; unless Khalid Abdulla runs a pacemaker the race will be at a typical crawl and highly tactical, and Midday seems to be able to accelerate of a storming pace.

come on lads settle down now. cecil doesnt want to run her against colts because he knows she wont beat them. she beat snow fairy who is tosh . sariska is and always will be the better filly on any ground shes beat her on all sorts of ground. obviously the great filly has to come out of the stalls to beat her but if she does midday cant beat her

Midday has improved and probably hasn't finished, whereas on what we've seen so far this year Sariska has pretty much stayed where she was last year.

why do you think she is missing the arc figgis.
serious question.

Snow Fairy is rated 123 by Timeform so she is clearly not "tosh". A dual Oaks winner the second Oaks in brilliant style is not the form of a horse that is "tosh".

However Dananders is clearly a far more reliable source of well reasoned and throughly analysed racing information than Timeform, the form book, speed figures or indeed anything or anybody else.

dont be smart silly. what has snow fairy acrually beat ?

actually

she is missing the arc because cecil has told price khalib or wateva the tools name is that she is not as highly rated as his previous fillys and is not good enough to win an arc. sariska could win an arc on heavy ground. midday cant win on any ground

the lay preacher Joined: 17 Apr 03
Replies: 1781 23 Aug 10 19:16   
why do you think she is missing the arc figgis.
serious question

Probably because of the widely held belief that fillies aren't good enough. Like most opinions based on stats though this is nothing more than a generalisation, of course it depends on the quality of the horses involved, whatever sex they are. I agree that generally most 3yo fillies aren't good enough, or they're over the top by the time the race comes around. I also think that most fillies kept in training don't improve much at 4. However, occasionally one, like Midday, comes along and they have as much chance as a colt.
Also, in my view, it's wrong to think a horse has to be some kind of superstar to win an Arc. Amongst winners like STS and Zarkava there's been a Bago, Rail Link and Urban Sea. Incidentally the last named was the last filly to win the race and she'd never even won a Group 2 previously.

* Urban Sea being the last filly prior to Zarkava.

The reason midday will not win the arc is sarafina will win the vermeille on the way to the arc , why all tosh about sariska , midday I cannot understand when the winner is another zarkava

There is little or no chance of Midday running in the Arc. If any of the York winners are going to contest the Arc it`s probably Rewilding - whether he`s good enough is another matter.There must be some thought in the Sheikh`s mind to by-pass the Leger and have a crack at the Arc.

Fillies like Zarkava are rare - on her runs so far Sarafina has not shown any of the 2008 Arc winner's brilliance.

cryoftruth I hope all is well my friend. Pleased to hear you did well as always there in York. I´m still in Spain but I´m reading your posts with interest. Mrs soldieroffortune continues to book our holidays during your Ebor meeting sadly

I hear what you say mate with this thread of yours here, and she´s a grand filly for her superb trainer, but she´ll find Fame And Glory impossible to beat there in Paris if she lines up against him.

Take care my friend and speak soon

I agree with cryoftruth. The Arc is well worth a tilt. Something about that York performance screamed 'seriously improved filly' to me. Travelled so, so well. And I keep looking at the Arc field this year and I think it's a race that's there for the taking. You look back at that Epsom run by Midday last year behind Debussy and that form has certainly stood up well. And Midday is undoubtedly much, much improved since her 3-y-o campaign. Sariska is only truly high class when the ground is soft. Reminds me of Turtle Island.

she won an oaks on good to firm . was 2nd in a coronation cup on good to firm . thats not top class form?

3rd in a champion stakes were shed have won with a decent start on good to firm

usually when you have people debating whether a horse is good  enough to run in the race or should run in the race then it generally isnt good enough to win the race .
i cant think of a recent arc winner where this has been the case.

No chance of Rewilding going for the Arc. Crisford was pretty adamant the Leger is and will be his target. They also think he'll be a better 4 year old so we could see him back in France next season.

At no point have Cecil or his jockey said the horse isn't good enough, which seems to be the hint from one or two here.

They're just banging on about her future as a broodmare, which sounds like gibberish to me (ref: Urban Sea).

Just come across this thread, low and behold that well renowned pundit dananders is give us all his well reasoned knowledge regarding Midday, such as 'she beat snow fairy who is tosh', 'she is missing the arc because cecil has told price khalib or wateva the tools name is that she is not as highly rated as his previous fillys and is not good enough to win an arc', 'midday cant win on any ground', and regarding his favourite girl Sariska '3rd in a champion stakes were shed have won with a decent start on good to firm'.
You should be onstage quite comical.

My point about her not running against the Colts is that it might come as a culture shock for her. Not doubting her ability.

Sariska is built like a Colt and is perhaps a reason why Michael Bell is happy to take them on. As well as her class, of course.

Right lads, this was a good thread until that gobsh.te dananders decided to waltz in.

FFS please stay away from real threads with good debate, you fkn clown!!

"Snow Fairy is tosh" (dananders)

Dual Oaks winner.

What an idiot you are.

I know that I'm going to regret saying this and it goes without saying that dananders is a cretinous thread murderer of the lowest ilk, but I do agree in principal with what he has posted on this thread (though not with the way in which he chooses to express himself, which is redolent of a particular 14 year old of my sons acquaintance who seems set for a life of knuckle dragging mediocrity puntuated by periods of puce faced incandescense at anyone who doesn't agree with him and a few well deserved kickings to boot).

Midday, admirable filly that she is, and I'd call her mine in a flash, is yet to prove it against the colts. She has yet to beat the best filly of her generation in a race in which the latter participates. The beating of Snow Fairy, impressively comfortable that it was, might not add up to much as she appears to be the best of a very poor classic generation.

I would love her to win an Arc and don't know that she can't, as she seems to be improving with every run, but I'd not be surprised to see her run well and be just out of the placings.

clowns. snow fairy will never win another group 1

i like how this is the dananders hate thread cheers lads. i was simply saying midday is not better than sariska

Sariska hasn't won a Group 1 for over a year now.

yes but shes beat midday everytime theyve met when shes decided to race. the only horse to beat her this seaon is fame and glory the arc favourite. i fink im getting a ridiculous amount of abuse on here. no1 can say with any confidence that midday is a better filly than sariska

You are an idiot and fully deserve the abuse.

Think the official handicapper rates her higher

A T , Sarafina has not beat a Goldikova yet as Zarkava did but done enough easily to ensure she is stepped up to 1m 4 in Vermeille , then the arc .if she goes to post the one to beat

Midday 123
Snow Fairy 119
Sariska 118

leave calling me an idiot out or wateva if cecil thpught she could win an arc shed be running

none of them will beat fame and glory . sariska would have a chance in extreme conditions

Read the thread thicko! The owners have 2 colts that will go for this, Byword & Workforce.
Midday is better over 10f than 12f.
I'd say Juddmonte are more than happy with her black type to date, but i'll pass on your thoughts

downallstar

your ratings are at lest 6 lobs over than those of Timeform the Racing Post Ratings and the official handicapper. You either a charlatan or a half wit, or both.

Midday's best form is at 12 furlongs not 10, the assertion you make is your own point of view, sadly there is a bit of difference between you rview (to which you have every right of course) and an informed view.

Byword will definitely not stay. Workforce is a very unlikely runner.

Aside from those brief comments you make perfect sense.

"snow fairy will never win another group 1" = another astonishing assertion that says an awful lot about something and its not Snow Fairy who won the irish Oaks in brilliant fashion.

cryoftruth - those are the offical ratings.

Midday's best form is at 10f. (3 G1 wins over 10f vs 1(G1) win over 12f)

Where have I said anything about Byword's stamina?

see my thread 120/1 is tempting, arc winner imo ,  byword wont stay . workforce sadly wont run again , i agree with cryoftruth

midday wont run either.

Midday wont run - fact
Byword wont stay - opinion
WF wont run again - opinion

I think Bywords trainer has Stamina doubts over him staying the tough 12f, although you never know he might get it.

Agree Graeme always a doubt if untried, but just making a point to cryoftruth & elisjohn.

to de fair there was the same doubts about rail link staying before the arc.

The economics weigh against Midday running in the Arc. Connections won £750k in the BC last year and they can collect again in a race which is easier to win than the Arc, for no more money. Whether the Arc would make for a good prep for the BC is debatable as she would have a hard race for sure.

If she runs in the Vermeile, we'll know whether she has improved again (which she needs to do to have a good shout in the Arc)but there is always the chance that the ground in October might ride soft and that would be against her in any event.

The York race was not run in a fast time, and as with Harbinger, there is some doubt as to whether that constituted improved form. I really can't agree with Croftruth's statement that she can be rated just 4lb off Zarkava - where that comes from I don't know.Even on her revised rating she needs to improve some 7lb to figure and at 4 with 14 runs I don't know where that further improvement would come from.

Surely a much better case could be made for Rwesilding to run in the Arc after his York run in preference to the St. Leger given that constitutionally he might not be up to running in both races.

Sandown, what do you mean by "not run in a fast time"?. While it wasn't outstanding, factor in the sex allowance she'd get for the Arc and it was very close to anything F&G has achieved, only 1lb behind by my reckoning.

Figgis

If Brushing ran to his rating of 85 on time,over the C&D on the same day, then Midday ran to 100. The RP rating was 124 using collateral form. As far as I could tell, Midday posted 24.5 secs for the last 2 furlongs which was not outstanding and gave no encouragement for rating the horse any better than its best previous rating (time or collateral.)

I make that Brushing ran to a new best. I'm not saying that Midday ran a massively improved figure, actually I rate it only 2lbs better than her previous best in the Coronation Cup. However, the style of the victory strongly suggests to me she's capable of better. I also believe that it's often possible to roughly predict the potential a horse may be capable of when fully mature (if it goes the right way), by looking at its 2yo figures. This also suggests to me that we probably haven't seen the best of Midday yet.

Apologies, should've said Middleton Stakes, not CC.

Figgis

I can well believe that Blushing ran above her official mark on time - but not that much more - which would still leave Midday's time as nothing special when combined with her finishing split - and I'd still be questioning whether that warrants any increase in her likely top rating. Anyway, I think its all academic as connections look to be going a different route although a comfortable win the the Vermeille might give them second thoughts. But I doubt that it will happen for the reasons I have given.

I just checked the latest Timeform ratings for Midday. She has been raised after York to a new high of 126. She is going to need a 130 horse to beat her in the Arc, and I can only see Fame And Glory likely to run to such a level and he lacks foot.

Have a look at the york race again. It was a simply brilliant performance. she comes cantering 2 out and then very quickly quickens right away, first drifting left and idling then quickening again for little pressure. She is an absolute star.

When she slaughters all the pretenders in the Prix Vermeille I remain quite hopeful that the Arc will be seen quite rightly as a simple prep to take in on the way to the USA.

Sarafina will beat her in the Vermeille and then go onto the arc .She is no pretender and will not need Zarkava form to win this arc

Only danger if she runs is RVW.

She's won 4 group 1's against the fillies.... what is there to gain from defeating the same type of filly over and over again? If fame and glory runs to his form, she will have to find another 5lbs, but she's improving all the time and certainly worth her shot, in what looks a weak renewal. Obviously the fact that king abdulla has others likely to line up is the significant reason why she won't take her place.