Horse Antepost

Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
Cream Of The Crop
13 Aug 10 17:53
Date Joined: 17 Jun 09
| Topic/replies: 407 | Blogger: Cream Of The Crop's blog
Very nice debut! I am sure Henry Cecil will keep it low key for now, but he looks a very nice prospect for both this year and next - in particular next.

Also a very promising run from Nathaniel, yet another smart product of Magnificient Style!
Show More
Report PFtrader September 30, 2010 9:37 PM BST

The Dewhurst will be a small field, Frankel and Saamidd will scare most of the others off so you are not going to get the conditions you mentioned here.

Also as I mentioned above, Frankel is already proven on good ground.....perhaps you mean really fast ground....and I doubt he will be running on that anywhere this year.
Report Figgis September 30, 2010 9:39 PM BST
I don't blame you for looking for reasons to oppose him, I won't be opposing him myself but I certainly wouldn't be backing him either at such a short price, I've seen speedy 2yos go off the boil before without warning.
Report ilikewavingatbuses September 30, 2010 9:44 PM BST
i agree it will prob be good or on the soft side of!!obviously if the field breaks up then i will reevaluate my position but i just see so
many superstars and i find often if it looks too good to be true it usually is!!

i think frankel has been amazing as i said, ridiculous!! but im still going to reserve judgment until after the dewhurst!!

i mean some on here are already saying hes the greatest horse of all time!!amazing!but i cant wait to see him again!!very exciting!
Report mythical prince September 30, 2010 10:20 PM BST
ilikewavingatbuses m8 i'll be you an even grand that you can't write a whole paragraph without any exclamation marks in it Grin
Report mythical prince September 30, 2010 10:20 PM BST
Report Celtic Son September 30, 2010 10:57 PM BST
Wow, there are some strange people here -

cryoftruth     30 Sep 10 17:49

The stamina in his pedigree being balls, is unfortunate seeing Frankel's sire passed on plenty of stamina from his balls.

Cetic Son may be right in the end, in that maybe Frankel will defy the pedigree and not get more than 10 furlongs. However his understanding of pedigrees appears to stretch to the first generation. Maybe he is young, he has a lot to learn and of he is backing his dogmatism with hard cash he will learn the expensive way.

I see the Bullet Train argument has moved away from the lingfield Derby trial not being run over 12 furlongs, to the old "it wasn't much af a test because it was a slowly run race" argument. I seem to recall the same sort of cynical argument about Sea The Stars Derby win - the slow pace of the Derby meant those that knew he would stay had not proved their case.

In the face of solid facts, its quite admirable how Celtic Son maintains his staunch position. It couldn't be the argument of a young man resentful that the Derby ante post favourite and clearly a horse bred for the job has shortened into single figures without any of his money on it could it?

How weird, did you not see the Lingfield Derby trial, have you not seen Bullet Train twice not get home over a properly run 1m4f. I have 33s and 25s on Frankel to win the 2000 Guineas, and I'd be man enough to admit, if I had the same prices for the Derby, he's two hopes of staying, zero and none. I'm sorry, I can't take you seriously saying he's bred for the job, our disagreement is done. Saying he'd defy his pedigree by not getting further than 10f, wow, you've genuinely lost it and clearly have your brains on him to win the Derby. He wants 1m2f in the long term, as did Kind's half brother Powerscourt. The reason he is short for the Derby, but not a shorter price that the 2000 Guineas, is stark staringly obvious. If you can't see that, no one can help you. You say he wants 1m4f even though Cecil says he is unlikely to stay, so why is he not shorter in the Derby betting, you do the math.

john92     30 Sep 10 20:45

If the dams optimum distance is the be-all and end-all (as you appear to be claiming) could you please explain why Kind was a sprinter considering her dam won the Lancashire Oaks?

Its not as black and white as you seem to think.

Is this not what I'm saying? She was bred to stay apparently, even though she was by miler Danehill, so a mixed pedigree? Bullet Train should stay 1m4f standing on his head if that was the case, but he doesn't, this is not up for debate, he doesn't. Frankel is by a 1m4f winner out of a 5,6f performer, isn't it entirely possible that he takes more after his dam, thus everything is not black and white? My bloody nan could have been a champion sprinter for her county for all I know, doesn't  make Usain Bolt does it? If they foresaw him as a proper Derby horse, he'd be heading for the Racing Post Trophy not the Dewhurst. They know he has speed, and is why they are happy to drop in trip again.
Report tobermory October 1, 2010 12:27 AM BST
You sound very sure of yourself!

Didn't think this pedigree business was such an exact science Happy
Report john92 October 1, 2010 12:31 AM BST
You seemed to think it was pretty black and white when you typed SPRINTER in caps, putting far too much emphasis on what his dam did on the track.

You seem to be going back on that a bit with the mention of 10f and Powerscourt.

I was replying to the fact you said it was "balls" that he has stamina in his family,when he clearly has. Even Danehill sired top class middle distance and staying horses too.

I think theres more chance of 12f being Frankels optimum trip rather than a mile, although it will most likely be 10f. That we probably agree on and well done on the big priced vouchers for the 2000g.
Report mythical prince October 1, 2010 1:08 AM BST
lets face it folks, we won't know until next june at the earliest one way or another, so let's all agree not to debate it anymore to save some virtual paper [smiley:crazy]
Report tons of sobs October 1, 2010 7:43 AM BST
Even the great get it wrong.

With Jacqueline Quest having been led in to the winner’s position, Cecil had said as he waited for the result of the stewards’ enquiry: “I didn’t think she’d get the trip and she’s only really just come to hand. It was Noel’s (Martin, owner) decision to run her and I just didn’t think she’d get the mile. 

“All credit to Noel. He was right and I was wrong. I’m always wrong. I didn’t think this would be her day.”
Report ilikewavingatbuses October 1, 2010 9:41 AM BST
mythical prince Joined: 20 Sep 06
Replies: 1676 30 Sep 10 22:20 
ilikewavingatbuses m8 i'll be you an even grand that you can't write a whole paragraph without any exclamation marks in it Grin

haha MP ill try cut them down, i swear

Report unclepuncle October 1, 2010 3:08 PM BST
As long the 'boys in blue' don't buy him Dream Ahead looks a much more likely Guineas winner to me.
Report seanvice October 1, 2010 3:14 PM BST
This horse gets beat by Saamidd and Dream Ahead IMO.

Not really sure why this horse has got the hype in front of the other 2. Henry Cecil maybe??
Report Masterminded October 1, 2010 3:29 PM BST
yes imo^
Report johnnyrant October 1, 2010 3:38 PM BST
Dream Ahead must have cut in the ground which has to be a worry for the Guineas in 1st week of May. It's not hype, sean, Frankel has been enormously impressive. Dream Ahead has actually shown a negative trait today - drifting across the track. He is all speed and I have my doubts about him getting home in a truly-run Guineas. Not many Middle Park winners have gone on to Guineas glory - you have to go back to Rodrigo in 91.
Report ilikewavingatbuses October 1, 2010 3:54 PM BST
most middle park winners end up sprinters which would be a worry!

needs cut it would also seem!!not a wise guineas bet imo!!

very impressive there tho against really good horses(unlike frankels form). Frankel much better guineas prospect imo!
Report PFtrader October 1, 2010 7:49 PM BST
Comments from Tom Queally from his Racing UK blog

"Finally, I am still buzzing from Frankel's win at Ascot last week. I've been in racing all my life and it's the best performance from a horse that I have ever been associated with. I've made no secret of how much I think of him, which is not normal for me, as I always like to keep a half-length down when talking about a horse's chance. But I can't help getting carried away with Frankel.

I only wanted to get a length closer coming around the bend at Ascot and he jumped straight from second to fifth gear in two strides and flew. He is also nowhere near the finished article. He is still learning and has not been involved in a race yet. I see he might take on Saamidd in the Dewhurst, but I wouldn't be massively afraid of him and am looking forward to the race already."
Report ilikewavingatbuses October 3, 2010 6:38 PM BST
rainbow springs 13L behind frankel finishes 3rd in g1.

granted she wouldve improved considerably and that didnt look a great race today tbf but can only be a good thing for frankel
Report johnnyrant October 3, 2010 6:44 PM BST
If it's a bog on Dewhurst day, I see no point in Henry running him. And it would be crazy for Dream Ahead's connections to pitch him against Frankel in Dewhurst. That match should be saved for a classic. If it's very soft at HQ in 2 weeks Frankel should be put away for the winter and saved for next year.
Report zilzal1 October 3, 2010 6:53 PM BST
Why Johnny??, We all know from past experience that its very unlikely that all three will turn up at Newmarket next May, its odds on that one or more of the three will have a setback, Not be ready, etc etc

If they are all fit and well, let them race if the going is suitable. Its a long time since we had such exciting youngsters and racing needs all the excitement that this contest would generate
Report ilikewavingatbuses October 3, 2010 10:16 PM BST
agreed^^  id expect dream ahead to win in a bog too i think!some performance the other day.
Report johnnyrant October 3, 2010 11:59 PM BST
Why risk bottoming the horse in a potentially brutal last run of the season that would be a mini-Guineas? Very soft ground is not what Frankel wants. It's as simple as that.
Report cryoftruth October 5, 2010 5:36 PM BST
I am of the view that Frankel is a poor price form the Dewhurst, 2000 Guineas and Derby. The prices are all too short now and anyone starting to lump on now may win, but will lose in the long run placing bets like this.

However 8/11 for the Dewhurst - that may be a bit different.

I personally think that frankel is far more likely to be able to cover 7 furlongs quicker than anything esle in the race. he has pretty much already proved that on form and times.

Perhpas 8/11 is not far off about what he should be.

I was not as impressed with some with Dream Ahead's win - the opposition seemed to me to be positively walking at the furlong pole and he may have looked far better than he is, useful horse though of course.

My idea of Guineas value is now Peter Martins and Wooten Bassett. The first iis a brillinat maiden winner and the seci=ond an unbeaten 5 time winner who shows a great turn of foot, acts on any going, and as he has now won very well and running on at the end of a soft ground 7 furlong group 1 race, looks almost certain to stay a mile.

Its possible that Frankel aside, Wooten Bassett has the best 2yo form in Europe just now.
Report ilikewavingatbuses October 5, 2010 5:54 PM BST
but frankel has the worse form from the top 5 or 6 in the betting for the dewhurst. he has beat nothing so far in slowly run contests and small fields. both dream ahead and saamidd have far superior form going in to the race. even. pathfork, dunboyne express they too have shown better form than frankel.

frankel is priced on potential , hype and style of victory. the horses he has beat have achieved nothing of real merit and as already stated have been running in small fields off a slow pace obviously suiting a speed horse like frankel who also obviously possess an above average ability but as form goes his is not near the best in the race.
Report ilikewavingatbuses October 5, 2010 5:58 PM BST
i mean the fact that nathaneil ran him so close in his only race with a close to honest pace and large field leaves a small doubt that he has perhaps looked better than he actually is. i think he is a very good horse and will prob win the dewhurst but he still has it all to prove imo. he needs to beat g1 horses not listed horses to be worthy of his current ante post guineas price, and if he does win he'll be shorter again.
Report Cream Of The Crop October 5, 2010 6:43 PM BST
I agree with your general point ilikewavingatbuses, but he was far from all out to beat Nathaniel on debut, Queally only nudging Frankel along to keep him at bay close home (having coasted into the lead on the bridle), on ground that was probably far from ideal. He was value for a bit further in the end.

However, I do agree that he is starting to look poor value at his current prices for next year's Classics, especially when we've seen the likes of Wootton Bassett, Dream Ahead and Casamento all come out and win Group 1/2 races in fine style in recent weeks. Frankel has clearly yet to show the full range of his abilities, of course, and the times he has clocked the twice have been exceptional, but there is a degree of potential built into his profile so far as we don't actually know what he can do against the cream of the juvenile crop, whereas the aforementioned trio have.

Don't get me wrong, we could be dealing with an truly exceptional talent, and the times of both of his races and visual impression he has created to date have been striking, but the form book doesn't quite back it up yet. I truly hope that can change when he wins the Dewhurst later this month.
Report mythical prince October 5, 2010 7:38 PM BST
i like waving you seem to have jumped on the mordin bandwagon. [smiley:crazy] however i like the fact you followed my advice about the exclamation marksDevil

I do not see the point of backing at such prices ante-post. you run a risk that he could not run or get injured. ok the field could easily cut up but the chances are you will get similar prices in the normal market. not to mention the fact that 99 percent of the time you will be able to get a bigger price inplay.. it's fairly rare that a horse's price will just move in one direction without any fluctuations.
Report mythical prince October 5, 2010 7:43 PM BST
as for wooton basset, he has looked impressive but can anyone name a winner of that french race which went on to win the guineas? i can name several horses that looked impressive in that race which were well touted up for the 2000, but I can't think of any which actually went close to winning the race.

come to think of it, middle park and dewhurst winners don't have a great recent record in the race either. perhaps casamento, to go the sea the stars route?
Report mythical prince October 5, 2010 7:46 PM BST
cryoftruth Joined: 22 Mar 04
Replies: 402 05 Oct 10 17:36   

I am of the view that Frankel is a poor price form the Dewhurst, 2000 Guineas and Derby. The prices are all too short now and anyone starting to lump on now may win, but will lose in the long run placing bets like this.

However 8/11 for the Dewhurst - that may be a bit different.

^ incidentally m8 think you did a colemanballs there [;)]
Report ribotman October 5, 2010 7:48 PM BST
rock of gibraltar,won french race and guineas at nkt.
Report cryoftruth October 5, 2010 9:48 PM BST
mythical you knew what I meant however. by the way my favourite Colemanball ever was the latebgreat David vine in Ski Sunday......"here we are this week in the holy land of Israel; a mecca for tourism" - marvellous.

I really cannot have frankel as having the 4th or 5th best form in the Dewhurst - this is evidently a mistake.

you can keep on saying what did he beat as much as you like, however he beat a 90 rated horse about half a furlong and then filly he beat (eased down) by a huge distance just ran 3rd in the prix Marcel B.

The argument about the horses he has thrashed is not good. If  a horse beats a 120 opponent by a length over a mile he has run 122. If he beats a 100 rated horse by 11 lengths he has run 122. The form is worth exactly the same. The "frankel hasn't beaten much would hold some merit if he had beaten rubbish by a small distance. He has not beaten horses that are entirely rubbish and done so by a total of 23 lengths so far.
Report cryoftruth October 5, 2010 9:55 PM BST

I think you read Mordin a bit too much. It was the "2000 Guineas horses have a terrible record in the Derby" nonsense that lost people a lot of money when Sea The Stars trotted up. The trouble with trends is that they change, they don't always last. That's in the nature of statistics. You can get apparently major trends that appear very solid and then go back and look a few years later and find all has changed. Just because Wooten Bassett won the french race doesn't have any bearing on his chances in the Guineas. If you follow that sort of foolish trend you end up with the sort of logical nonsense involved in saying he would have a better chance in the guineas if he had been stuffed in France!
Trends are a cheap way of trying to find winners. There is no real substitute for an understanding of form. It is this lack of understanding of form that led to Bekhabad being made favourite for the Arc, when it was pretty obvious to anyone who had cared to look that Workforce's Derby form was easily the best on offer.

of course Workforce didn't beat much at Epsom. However a bit like frankel people forgot he beat his rivals by a very long way indeed.
Report zilzal1 October 5, 2010 10:15 PM BST
Hold on Cry, would you normally back a horse when it first goes over 12f having run over 8f last if it wasnt the Derby??

Its still only three from god knows how many in the last 40 years that have won both and Ok we've had Two placed Guineas horses win(one in a four way photo) but there's a hell of a gap back to Generous who was 4th in 91, Hell out of the last 10 guineas winners youd have to say that 7/10 were milers(Mafki, Henry,George,Footsteps,Rock,Cockney,Kings) Haafed got 10f, Golan and STS got 12f
Report mythical prince October 5, 2010 10:20 PM BST
cryoftruth, with all due respect i don't see what i just said has to do with nick mordin, i've already stated on here several times that I find him a flawed but interesting contributor. I certainly don't suck up to him like several on here do (kevbetting supermoron springs to mind.) I know you have crabbed him several times on here (certainly he overrelies on speed ratings and his suggestion that bekhabad and the other french three year olds were miles ahead of the other middle distance horses in europe seemed bizarre to say the least)

I was just making the rather sarcastic point that ilikewavingbuses seems to have jumped on the mordin bandwagon as concerns frankel. Mordin suggested that frankel may well be exposed in a stronger run contest. But as often with the guy, he backs up an already strongly held belief with poor evidence, in this case bringing up a south african horse from many years ago who he himself dismisses as a freak.

Anyway I find it hard to believe that any horse which travels as well as frankel does will be better suited by a slowly run race, thats a statement by someone who doesn't really understand racing.

personally I hope frankel wins the dewhurst and win's it impressively, we all need our stars. I'm pretty confident that he will do exactly that and will be backing him to do so. i'm sure if he doesn't, all the cynics amongst us will come on to gloat "i told you so"

it's interesting though, that frankel is already a shorter price antepost than zafonic was on the day, when he won his dewhurst... zafonic was the most impressive two year old I can remember. It suggests to me that in these betfair days all the value is slowly squeezed out of favourites as the "sheep" jump over each other in a rush to get on at the first prices possible.

as for ilikewaving's contention that he doesn't have the best form, is all the discussion about frankel really about form? do we really care that he's beaten horse's like klammer? it's the style in which he's done it that's impressed, not who he's beaten. When he won at doncaster he cruised up to the front runner off a very slow gallop. diamond geezah, a horse rated 90, was sprinting full pelt but queally hadn't even moved a muscle. Only the very best horse's can do that. They make the difficult look easy.

ditto at ascot, when he comes around them all like they are standing still. I really hope he does the same at newmarket, so we can have something to remember this otherwise fairly forgettable flat season by.
Report cryoftruth October 5, 2010 10:36 PM BST
Sorry Mythical I misread your views entirely.
Zilzal. The answer to your question is certainly yes.

There is a reason why Guineas horses have a poor record in the Derby - it takes a very good one to win both. What you need however is one definitely bred to stay. So like New Approach who was top class over a mile, and as you note Sea The Stars, Nashwan, Generous etc, if you get the right one it can be done. In fact the very first thing I look for in the Derby market each year is a horse bred to get a mile and a half running well in the 2000 Guineas. I have backed very few that I thought really wualified over the years. I did back generous well at 13/2 and had a fortune on Nashwan. The only one I recall getting away was Nicolai who was placed in the Irish Guineas before being stuffed out of sight behind Henbit. I think there are very few real qualifiers. This is my trend in respect to 2000 Guineas as a prep. If a horse is bred to stay and runs in the Derby from the Guineas they have a very high percentage chance of winning and its obvious why. If a horse bred to stay 12 furlongs can compete over a mile, theoir speed is likely to be too much for opponents at Epsom.

Sir Mark Prescott has made fortunes over the years by getting horses handicapped over short distances and then mopping up races from low marks when put up sharply in trip. Now there is a trend.
Report zilzal1 October 5, 2010 10:57 PM BST
I just think that 2000 Guineas runners are overbet in the Derby. lets go back over the last 25 odd years from memory(cant guarantee all correct lol)
84 El Gran Senor 10-11
85 Shadeed 7/2-Runner up Bairn was a/p fav after the 2000
86 Dancing Brave 9/4
88 Doyoun 8-1 ??
89 Nashwan 5/4
91 Mystiko 9/2 Generous 8-1
92 Rodrigo De Triano 13-2
94 Mister Baileys -cant remember was abroad
95 Pennekamp 5-4
97 Entrepeneur 8-11
98 King Of Kings 11-2 Cape Verdi(from the 1000 11-4)
01 Golan 4-1
02 Hawk Wing 6-4
03 Refuse to Bend 10-3??
04 Snow ??(dettori) 5-1
06 Sir Percy 6-1??
08 New Approach 11-2
09 Sea The Stars 11-4

All fancied, and maybe the success of a few of them have been because we are in a astonishing run of fancied horses winning the Derby, off hand i think you have to go back to 98 to find a horse in double figure odds winning the race
Report ilikewavingatbuses October 5, 2010 11:17 PM BST
mythical prince Joined: 20 Sep 06
Replies: 1701 05 Oct 10 22:20 

'as for ilikewaving's contention that he doesn't have the best form, is all the discussion about frankel really about form? do we really care that he's beaten horse's like klammer? it's the style in which he's done it that's impressed, not who he's beaten. When he won at doncaster he cruised up to the front runner off a very slow gallop. diamond geezah, a horse rated 90, was sprinting full pelt but queally hadn't even moved a muscle. Only the very best horse's can do that. They make the difficult look easy. '

i hear what youre saying MP and i agree that he was worth more than the finishing margin over nathaniel would suggest but even tho he lacked experience in that race, he didnt look THAT green and put his head down, and i feel his other two races were a farce. yes he was impressive and travels like a good horse but did he REALLY MAKE THAT MUCH IMPROVEMENT FORM 1ST TO 2ND RUN?

i dont want to take anything away from the horse, hes very good, anyone would know that having seen him, but u see i like to look at horses firstly at having a limit on their ability, as inlike humans, even if a horse is truly outstanding and better than his / her counterparts, they can only go so fast, they have a limit.  frankel looks like a horse that will also go and win by many lengths, he seems to just keep running so did he really improve all thos lengths from 1st to 2nd run? it seems like its almost impossible he couldve done that, and if he is that good, why didnt he power away from nathaniel?

because tom wouldnt allow him? because i thought tom asked him for something, it wasnt like his 2nd and 3rd race, he was definitely asked to go and move on at one point and yet the second was still close up, granted being asked more than frankel but wasnt 10L back. so what i am trying to decide in my head is has he really improved THAT much, beating horses with experience that have shown at least listed level of ability by gentle nudging?

what will happen when he gets challenged 2f out from a g1 horse that can and definitely will be able to go with him, at least for a significant amount of time longer than any other  horse he has faced.

and MP is right its not all about form but form is defo the way to go for a solid judgment of ability and not lengths won against horses that are never going to give u a race in the 1st place.

look at cecils own MANIFEST , anyone that saw him win that race at headquarters on only his 2nd start winning by 19L in an absolute canter and it was a canter he looked like a machine, imagine if tom had asked him to go and win the race pushing all the way to the line, a wonder horse, gets beat by akmal in his next start and was so impressive the race before, it just shows u the difference in a horse when it is asked to race good horses and large distance wins against poor horses isnt enough. anyone taking 8/11 for the dewhurst should be careful imo.

and if it counts for anything, i hope it absolutely hacks up, i wanna see a machine i wanna see him beat saamidd by 10 but i dont thik its going to be that easy.
Report ilikewavingatbuses October 5, 2010 11:18 PM BST
mythical prince Joined: 20 Sep 06
Replies: 1701 05 Oct 10 19:38 
i like waving you seem to have jumped on the mordin bandwagon. Crazy however i like the fact you followed my advice about the exclamation marksDevil

and youre welcomeLaugh
Report mythical prince October 6, 2010 2:17 AM BST
the maiden he won was run in driving rain and it was his debut. very few horses if any in the history of racing would have won that race by very far on their debuts.

as for the comparison with manifest, frankel actually won by a large margin in a group race. and for those knocking the oppo, you'll all be changing your minds when the likes of klammer actually acquit themselves in group company next season.

I really hope, and in fact expect that we'll see something special from frankel in the dewhurst. I really do.
Report mythical prince October 6, 2010 2:18 AM BST
incidentally, cecil stated after the royal lodge that the horse improved hugely in the weeks leading up to that race, suggesting that he did indeed come on a lot for that debut.
Report gart October 6, 2010 8:22 AM BST
if you are looking for holes, you'd be better off looking at a wedge of ementaal cheese.
Report john92 October 6, 2010 1:25 PM BST


Well, lets assume that horses generally dont improve much from 1st to 2nd run.

In that case, Frankel would already be a superstar based on his demolition of Gosdens filly who had her debut at Doncaster, and that form would be the best of any 2yo this year.
Report ilikewavingatbuses October 6, 2010 2:16 PM BST
john92 Joined: 13 Jan 05
Replies: 602 06 Oct 10 13:25 


Well, lets assume that horses generally dont improve much from 1st to 2nd run.

In that case, Frankel would already be a superstar based on his demolition of Gosdens filly who had her debut at Doncaster, and that form would be the best of any 2yo this year.

i dont know how you you have deduced that tbh, i know horses improve from 1st to 2nd run but him beating rainbow springs on her 1st run by 13L after he has already had a run doesnt make that the best yr old form this year.

maybe frankel didnt improve THAT much and rainbow springs improved A LOT. but one thing is for sure that r runner race at donnie is not the best form lol
Report john92 October 6, 2010 3:37 PM BST
You seem to have missed the point.

I made an assumption to show that you were contradicting yourself a little - trying to pick a hole in Frankel on the basis that he didnt improve THAT much from debut - when applying the same general theory to Rainbow Springs would make Frankel a superstar and would give him the best 2yo form of the year.
Report ilikewavingatbuses October 6, 2010 5:01 PM BST
no i didnt say that he didnt improve that much.

i was saying surely he didnt improved THAT much , as in he was so impressive from 1st to 2nd run, like the gulf  was so huge!its almost hard to believe and take it literally.
Report cryoftruth October 6, 2010 6:01 PM BST
l lets look at the list you have assembled - and thanks for the work you did to aid our debate.

2209,8 and 6 all won I don't remember the Snow thingy, but Refuse To bend was never likely to stay, Hawkwing ditto and still rewarded each way punters by coming second, Golan stayed but was just not up to it, an odd horse Golan, king od Kings was a very fast bred son of Saddlers Wells who had no chance at all of staying, Entrprneur again an obvious non stayer, Pennekamp might have won, but injured himself very badly, Rodrigo was again not bred to stay, being fast bred son of El gran Senor (I think from memory),  Mr Baileys had no chance fo staying on breeding and style of running too, mystiko again was bred to get 7 furlongs or a mile and had zero chance of getting the trip, Generous and Nashwan both won easily, Dancing brave should have won, and finished second, Shadeed and Bairn were more or less sprint bred and again could bot be considered as Guineas winners, and Doyoun was son of Mill Reef out of a sprinting mare and was already weakening at the end of the 2000 Guineas he won - he had no chance in the Derby at all, and El Gran Senor was a cracking horse finishing second although he never stayed.

So of the horses you mention of the ones really bred to stay, one was a filly (Cape Verdi, one was Golan, one got injured and 1 was second. 5 won! of stying bred Derby runners in the 2000 Guineas that is a strike rate of around 65%.

The average odds are splendid at that sort of strike rate, and as I say its a really excellent long term system.
Report Figgis October 6, 2010 6:34 PM BST
Snow Ridge was the Dettori one, Zil. From what I remember about Entrepreneur, he was considered more a Derby than a Guineas prospect as a 2yo.
Report zilzal1 October 6, 2010 6:41 PM BST
LOL, Cry, its easy after the event, if these were all blatant non stayers how come they were all single figure odds

Hawk wing was around 6/4, not a lot of punters were rewarded ew
Entrepeneur was by Sadlers wells out of a exclusive Order mare who was nailed on to such a extent by the breeding pundits that he was odds on
El Gran Senor won at the Curragh beating a Arc winner
Doyoun was still placed
Should have won still doesnt get paid even nowdays
Report cryoftruth October 7, 2010 7:35 PM BST
Zilzal all that was from my poor old memory so forgive me one mistake like Entrepreneur.

2000 Guineas winners do look sexy in the Derby market but there is honestly no doubt in my mind that a horse definitely bred to get 12 furlongs that run well in the 2000 Guineas are excellent betting material when they get a mileand a half to run over. Its pretty obvious why too. If a horse is bred to be better over 12 furlongs and is already pretty sh1t hot over 8, the chances of somethign exceptional emerging over 12 is really very high. of course there will be exceptions, but its the homest truth that I hammered Generous, Nashwan, New Approach and Sea the Stars but never had a bean on the other Guineas runners in the Derby that you mention.

Remind me after next year's Guineas and we'll discuss which ones really qualify next season.

Just out if interest Timeform have Dream Ahead rated 130 a pound clear of Frankel. I suppose that's fair enough, but I would imagine that 6 furlongs on very soft ground may have been the reason for the impressive win and cannot think he has much chance against Frankel.
Report johnnyrant October 8, 2010 9:26 AM BST
Cecil: Frankel as good a juvenile as we've had
By Tony Elves 8:37AM 8 OCT 2010

FRANKEL will have his final workout for the Group 1 Dubai Dewhurst Stakes on October 16 on Saturday with his trainer Henry Cecil repeating his belief that on Friday that unbeaten colt is "as good a two-year-old as we have had".

Imperious winner of the Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes on his latest start, Frankel cantered up Warren Hill Polytrack on Friday morning before crossing the Long Hill grass with an older lead horse.

Cecil is delighted with the progress the Khalid Abdullah-owned son of Galileo is making with the trainer particularly impressed by the colt's growing maturity.

He said: "Frankel is in good order and seems to be growing up a lot and settling better. He wears a crossed noseband but we'll be able to take that off next year as he's doing very well. After the Royal Lodge he's been making more and more progress."
Henry Cecil

Following Frankel's ten-length demolition of his four opponents in the Juddmonte Royal Lodge, Cecil described him as "the best two-year-old I've had since Wollow" and the trainer was happy to repeat those sentiments on Friday.

"You go back to horses like Wollow and Diesis and he's as good a two-year-old as we have had over the past few years and I don't know if we've had a two-year-old as progressive."

Frankel is the short-priced favourite for both the 2,000 Guineas and the Investec Derby and the opening Classic of the season at Newmarketis firmly on his agenda.

Cecil said: "If he happens to win the Dewhurst then we'll go straight for the [2,000] Guineas. Bubbles burst but let's hope this one doesn't."
Report ilikewavingatbuses October 8, 2010 10:41 AM BST
^^ i thought we all knew that already? are they gonna keep doing it every week?slow news day. getting almost coolmoresque imo.
Report ilikewavingatbuses October 13, 2010 9:18 PM BST
Report Celtic Son October 16, 2010 2:34 PM BST
Clearly wants 1m4f doesn't he ffs
Report eric_morris October 16, 2010 2:45 PM BST
He will get 1m4f standing on his head. We have a rare animal here the all-time greats got both Classic trips and this is one of them imo. Would love to see him Guineas, Derby, other then Arc. Will be the great horse people will remember HRC by. Mainly fillies he hasnt had a colt as good as this he could win everything next season a la Sea The Stars.
Report unclepuncle October 16, 2010 2:48 PM BST
I have never seen a horse stand on it's head - I think Steinbeck may have stood on his own tail thoughLaugh
Report Figgis October 16, 2010 2:49 PM BST
The big difference is nobody thought STS would be an all time great as a 2yo. With a few exceptions, most of the ones that are predicted as such don't live up to expectations.
Report requestingflyby October 16, 2010 3:02 PM BST
Cecil targeting Guineas and St James Palace.

Finally puts a nonsense to those that believe he'll get a mile and a half.
Report geoff m October 16, 2010 3:04 PM BST
Wont make the same mistake he did with Wollow.
Report eric_morris October 16, 2010 3:04 PM BST
If they stick to a mile not half as much to look forward too with him as with Sea The Stars. St James Palace or the Derby and Arc sure HRAC will give the horse a chance to prove himself at both Classic trips. Dont think beating Rip Van Winkle over again is going to be much of a spectacle otherwise.
Report Dark Destroyer October 16, 2010 3:08 PM BST
Good to see HC/Teddy have his 3 yo career mapped out, particularly in view of the fact that 2 weeks ago they didnt know if he was running in the Dewhurst, the R Port or neither Laugh
Report cryoftruth October 16, 2010 3:13 PM BST
"finally puts a nonsense to those who believe he will stay a mile and a half" - this is an opinion and there is an argument which you make Eric.

However he is bred to stay, and when they are so bred they usually do.

What was most impressive today was the fact that he was "lit up" early by being squeezed and bumped at the start, preventing him settling at all. Everything will depend on how he progresses next season. Sometimes a horse's need for a trip can become much more marked in their second season with Henry - Diminuendo looked like a sprinter till the Fillies Mile at 2 and then she was too slow for a mile at 3.

He is better than that but it said nothing about his chance of staying 12 furlongs - he won on pretty soft ground over a mile and will pretty obviously stay at least 10 furlongs
Report eric_morris October 16, 2010 3:15 PM BST
He was bumped at the start which the jockey and trainer reported set the horse alight relaxes really well normally as shown in the Royal Lodge.

Queally said: "He's a superstar, and it's nice to have done it when it mattered. He's done it well and he's very special.

"He got a bit of a bump on leaving stalls and that set him alight, but he quickened up well and put the race to bed. He wandered a bit off a true line on the ground, but we'll forgive him that!"

Cecil added: "He'd been relaxing well at home but that bump set him alight - in his work he is very relaxed, but when you get a nasty bump like that it makes a difference.
Report Dark Destroyer October 16, 2010 3:18 PM BST
I largely agree COT.

Surely he now goes straight to the Guineas and only after that will his future targets be decided. If he scrapes home the mile route might be necessary. However both for prestige and stud value a step up makes far more sense until such time as there is a whole lot more evidence than we currently have that he wont stay middle distances (the sort of question that races like the Dante tend to resolve).

Nothing more to be said for now. See you all on this thread next April Cool
Report A_T October 16, 2010 4:47 PM BST
Think he may be a Zafonic - walk the Guineas but run into trouble after
Report PFtrader October 16, 2010 4:58 PM BST
Comments attributed to H Cecil indicate he wants a pacemaker for Frankel next year.
Report johnnyrant October 16, 2010 9:36 PM BST
sorry but this whale will soon be harpooned out of competition - Cowell won't want another fat troll winning before he heads off to States
Report johnnyrant October 16, 2010 9:37 PM BST
woops, sorry, wrong thread. Frankel - terrific performance today after the bump and then failing to settle properly
Report mightymoyes October 31, 2010 1:41 PM GMT
form boosted again.
Report geoff m October 31, 2010 2:37 PM GMT
Think the hcapper has all he needs with Klammer & Roderics subsequent runs to make him top 2r old above Dream Ahead.
Report ilikewavingatbuses October 31, 2010 3:03 PM GMT
pathforks form is as good.
Report grendel October 31, 2010 3:03 PM GMT
If he had half a brain he would'nt have needed any subsequent runs, it would be so great to see the Abdullah silks being carried by a true great next year if he trains on 25 years after the season of my equine hero.
Report ilikewavingatbuses October 31, 2010 3:03 PM GMT
but yes good to see it boosted.
Report the lay preacher October 31, 2010 4:53 PM GMT
didnt need a form boost if you havent worked out frankel is the buisness by now there is no hope for you.
Report eric_morris April 3, 2011 11:59 AM BST
ilikewavingatbuses thinking Frankel just a hyped horse on pages 8/9 of this thread the first major Frankel thread. Only 4 weeks to see if he was right or wrong.
Report ilikewavingatbuses April 3, 2011 1:53 PM BST
i think hes the most likely winner of the guineas u clown, do u even read my posts?

its the derby that i dont think he'll win(if he even lines up).

my god u are an idiot, seriously, an absolute mug if ive ever seen one,u fookin talk to yourself on here

eric_morris Joined: 27 Jun 10
Replies: 2596 23 Jul 10 11:54
Think ben10 might have been the only contributor on the thread that caused kirk's demise. Kirk should have kissed ass kept stum like Post reporters on issues and he would keep everyone happy.

He did go strongly against St Nick on a stupidly long thread on here and was strong on Steinbeck in singles and doubles then Canford Cliffs in a big treble with Big Bucks 3s, Kauto 7/4. Steinbeck won't be any good over trips further than a mile IMO though I believe he had/has potential turns out his injuries may have affected his career and in that respect prima Donna was right.

As for Kirk wouldn't be surprised if he is on here claiming he won k's on Nadal at Wimbledon or something else made up.

Report ilikewavingatbuses April 3, 2011 2:09 PM BST
i think its fair to debate all aspects of a horses form, what YOU think seems to be the only thing u want to hear from other formulites! u must be about 15. i like to talk about the good and the bad, will he get the trip, wont he, discuss form boosts, negetives, is his price right, has this happened before etc etc..

u seem to latch on to every 'superstar' like steinbeck and say they'll never be beaten the best ever, look at u already comparing ffrankel to sea the stars, u mention him with sea the stars in nearly every post, youre a laughing stock, few respect u on this forum because all u do is talk absolute b0llocks about the ficticous bets you have and seem to only care about your own opinions and seem to think youre right before these races have even been run. i have absolutely no time for u and i feel sorry for frankel now as im hoping u havent put your curse on him, u liking a horse i worse that an all caps FREE MONEY thread from money tree and god help us when u actually happen to pick a winner as we never hear the fooking end of it. how many years are u gonna live off the fact that u stuck by capt chrisLaugh ffs give up will ya, capt chris blah blah blah big fooking deal, i bet u didnt even back the horse because ur such a fooking idiot! now sorry to spam this wonderful frankel thread with this sh!te but i honestly cannot stant u, u are literally the only person on this forum i dont get on with because u are too fooking ignorant and stupid to have an intelligent conversation about horse racing and im just hoping u havent fooked up franklels chances.

now FOOK OFF!Happy

''As for Kirk wouldn't be surprised if he is on here claiming he won k's on Nadal at Wimbledon or something else made up.''[smiley:crazy]   

^^LIKE SERIOUSLY![smiley:crazy]
Report eric_morris April 3, 2011 4:28 PM BST
This thread page 8:


Date Joined: 06 Jun 09

When: 28 Sep 10 10:51

personally i think frankel, although apparently v talented is just another overhyped horse like st nick was last season!i mean he won the rp thophy as easy as you like on the bridle as he hit the front!!

frankel looks a speed horse to me and a horse that loves cut!!im just going by my eyes of course and i may be proved wrong in time and thats fine but i think you all should be careful before getting sucked in to this as i see the same comments every year someone puts up  a good performance!!

nathaniel hasnt even won a race yet and he got to within half a length of him on 1st run!i think hes just beat average horses very well so far but he will face stiffer tests soon!!he hasnt even run in a truly run race yet on good ground!you'd go broke backing these horses for guineas and derbys!

wait until he faces a horse that isnt listed class on good ground in a truly run race and they youll find out how good he is!!
Report eric_morris April 3, 2011 4:39 PM BST
Re your paste ... I was taking the mick as I know from an impeccable source that kirk did win k's on Nadal at Wimbledon ... however we all know this is probably made up. (ffs surely he gets it this time Laugh)

Also I understand he was banned for sticking up for ordinary punters (even the th1ck ones like you) re owners laying their own horses ... something most on here wouldnt do as they are only interested in their own pockets.

kirk was the best on here imo until The Ante-Post King (TAPK) came along ... his horses are really doing the talking as he said on his thread. Taqleed (Lincoln), Memory and Seville must be certainties the last 2 in the Guineas and Derby.
Report sintonian April 3, 2011 5:03 PM BST
I think Kirk disappeared because he blew his bank. Not surprising really.
Report ilikewavingatbuses April 3, 2011 5:33 PM BST
you ARE kirkLaugh[smiley:crazy]
Report ilikewavingatbuses April 3, 2011 5:34 PM BST
kirk was a mug and a 2 bob punter, everyone knew that!Happy
Report eric_morris April 3, 2011 8:16 PM BST
...just a hyped horse ...

mmmm .... forum mug iliketakingloonybuses gets it wrong re Dewhurst winner sensation.
Report Charlton2005 April 3, 2011 8:42 PM BST
He may be a Zafonic and he may be an SNA. At 1/1 he is a very obvious lay.
Report ilikewavingatbuses April 3, 2011 8:50 PM BST
Laugh eric the aftertiming mug

and bottler, wouldnt even face sintLaugh either face him or stfuLaugh
Report eric_morris April 4, 2011 9:17 PM BST
On this thread you said Frankel was hyped yet he went on to win the Dewhurst without the whip in sight. Nothing can distract from that you mug.
Report revedesivola April 4, 2011 9:41 PM BST
i think you meant DETRACT eric? here,
Report eric_morris April 4, 2011 10:08 PM BST
No I meant distract ... thanks for your contribution though.
Report revedesivola April 4, 2011 10:11 PM BST
well in that case i think youre gone beyond the services my link provided. its probably incurable, i wish you the best with it though
Report ilikewavingatbuses April 4, 2011 10:20 PM BST
Laugh eric u dumb fooking turd, im one of his biggest fans but he is and was at the time getting hyped like he IS  the next sea the stars, hes not! hes a brilliant colt but youre looking at him with rose tinted glasses because  FDSFC and wont hear of him EVER being beaten...ever! this may be the case, he might go his whole life unbeaten but YOU dont KNOW this NOW, u dont know how hes trained on, if all horses improve equal amounts this yr as they did last yr he'll win the guineas by 15L eased down but they dont so that allows all intelligent people on the forum to debate his respective chances for the coming season! but u just dont get it! read my posts, im against him for the DERBY u dumb coont, not the guineas. he has obvious chance in the guineas but i wont be backing him, we all see what u see but youre too fooking stupid to accept that other people have diff opinions to u!

dopey coont!Laugh
Report ilikewavingatbuses April 4, 2011 10:27 PM BST
STEINBECK 2000guineas thread

eric_morris Joined: 27 Jun 10
Replies: 2631 03 Apr 11 20:34
Injuries affected his development I agree with you on that. St Nick however was just flattered by his RPT run against middle distance types (as mentioned around 15 months ago).

mentioned by who eric? wouldnt be kirk would it, u wouldnt be taking credit for what kirk said now would u? why would u do that ericLaughLaughLaugh

wow, just wow!!

Report eric_morris April 4, 2011 10:36 PM BST
Report eric_morris April 4, 2011 10:37 PM BST
Take some English lessons.
Report revedesivola April 4, 2011 10:41 PM BST
well done kirk, youve used a correct work. celebrations... in the wrong context though im afraid. back to square one
Report eric_morris April 17, 2011 12:15 PM BST
Anyone still seriously think Frankel is just a hype horse?
Report sintonian April 17, 2011 1:49 PM BST
lol, this is the thread where you aftertimed on Nadal, page 2.
Report Nirnaeth Arnoediad August 23, 2012 12:39 PM BST
Some great and not so great observations on here Devil
Report ilikewavingatbuses August 23, 2012 4:15 PM BST

31 Oct 10 16:03
06 Jun 09
| Topic/replies: 27,447 | Blogger: ilikewavingatbuses's blog
pathforks form is as good.


its always interesting to read these after the races, hes come along way, some horse. great thread. well bar the v end!

wd all.

1 more to go and then hes done. hope its the Arc.
Report Navel-Gazer August 23, 2012 11:18 PM BST
With the benefit of hindsight, this is just about the best thread I've ever read on this forum!

Absolutely fascinating to hear the views of all from race to race as a juvenile.

Makes trawling through all the shíte worthwhile Wink
Report A_T August 23, 2012 11:26 PM BST
what's Kirk calling himself these days?
Report sintonian August 24, 2012 9:27 PM BST
Kirk has not been seen since he blew his wad on Maybe in the Guineas. It has knocked him into to oblivion unlike the rest of us who have steadily clawed it all back.
Post Your Reply
<CTRL+Enter> to submit
Please login to post a reply.


Instance ID: 13539