cue card - supreme novices

trainer said in interview they will definitely start at 2 miles

If Betfair put up a market, you can have £40 at 12.5 with me, which is bigger than any of the books' prices.

Might go for the Champion

We had all this stuff about going for the champion with Dunguib, and he didn't. There is no reason why this one should be any different.

Fact this horse is 4 times the price that Dunguib was for same race at same time last season and twice the price of Cousin Vinny two years ago is an insult. Not saying he will win but he was as impressive as those two.

Can imagine this to start a short priced fav on the day..And cue paddy power with the "If Cue Card loses the Supreme Novice Hurdle we will refund all losing bets" offer..He sure does know how to reel um in..

There were some really highly thought of horses in the Dunguib race though, Mullins had been mopping up bumpers all season and Rite of Passage had been talked up to the hilt before the race, it looked a vintage bumper and I suppose it has turned out to be

agreed with above post until last sentence

Rite of Passage did win an Ascot Gold cup, Dunguib won plenty of grade 1 novice hurdles in Ireland, Shinrock paddy won a grade 1, Quel Esprit won a graded race, hasn't worked out too bad

point noted.

not as well as I'd hoped though

Think he will be upped in trip

so hard not to be tempted by the price for the supreme. horse hadn't even quickened and it was in the lead! seems to wake up when shaken up and bolt clear.

cant wait to see him jump. hope he does it well.

He's starting off at 2 miles and will remain at that distance if he keeps winning.

Anyone taking 12.5 now about a horse in the Supreme Novices needs their head testing imho. There's always a relative upset. I remember the collective groan when Ebaziyan won. Wait until the day...there'll be loads of value knocking about.

Agreed - it is a totally different science. The only horse I can recall winning the bumper then the SN was Montelardo, who won a poor renewal of the Supreme Novices in 1993 - and was beaten a long way in Alderbrooks Champion Hurdle the year after.

Alderbrook's Champion was 2 years later. Wasn't it Montelado's first run since his Supreme win ?

There have only been 18 champion bumpers!

You are right Flyingbolt Flakey Dove won it in 94, not sure if it was his first run since without looking it up - but I am sure he went on to win the Irish Cesarewich.

I agree there have only been 18 Champion Bumpers, but the fact only one horse has gone on to win the Supreme Novices (and that was a poor year) would hardly be a great omen for Cue Card

How many have run in the SN

Good question BJG, worth some research I suspect not many. I know Wither or Which did - Monsignor won the SA Hurdle and Pizarro was 2nd in the SA after Coolnagora was thrown out. Willie has a strange track record because Florida Pearl won the SA Chase the year after, he ran Missed That in the Arkle, but Cousin Vinny ran in the SN. Both Cork All Star and Dunguib ran in the SN. I suspect that the recent trend is SN but prior to that it was the SA Hurdle. When I can get to a UK internet connection I will check.

We all know Montelado won the SN after winning the bumper. Only one to have done so. Others that went for it:

Whither or witch - 5th in the SN 3 years after bumper win.
Cork All Star - 7th in the SN the year after bumper win
Cousin Vinny - 5th in SN year after bumper win
Dunguib - 3rd in SN year after bumper win

Others to note are Monsignor and Pizzaro who went for the SA novices hurdles finishing first and second respectively.

So only five in total have gone for it, wth one win and one placing.

So bumper winners have a 20% win rate in the SN

I suppose the other way to looking at ir is you have a 5 out 18 chance of him running in the SN, then a 1 out of 5 chance of winning the SN. For that reason I don't see the 10s on offer ante-post before he has jumped a twig as any value.

I reckon he'll hurdle well enough. Looked very athletic back in March and will no doubt have come on a bit since then. We won't know until we've watched him a couple of times. Looks like he'll have a few races before Christmas then rested prior to the supreme.

"Cue Card Back In Training After Champion Bumper Victory.
One of the most impressive winners of the 2010 Cheltenham Festival was the fantastic Cue Card who simply bolted up to claim the Champion Bumper, he was a long priced winner for Colin Tizzard at the time but has now been tipped for big things in 2011. He will take the usual course of going Novice Hurdling in the Autumn with Tizzard hoping to get three or four runs into him before Christmas, his performances in those races will determine his path in the new year with a potential crack at the Supreme Novices Hurdle the long term aim. The bookmakers are certainly impressed with him and at this early ante-post stage he is the favourite to win the Supreme Novices, which as always will be the opening race of the Festival in March."