Horse Antepost
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
Lt's hope the ground doesn't turn up too firm. I was surprised to hear Ed Dunlop say this seeing as his filly Snow Fairy doesn't want it too firm.
It could be the best race of the week at York.
Possibilities
1) Profound Beauty, top class mare probably best at 1.6 and a bit of cut being prepped for the Melbourne Cup
2) Midday, another top class filly who won a substandard Nassau Stakes. Ideal distance and need cut too.
3)Sariska, Another top class filly who is proven at Group 1 level and needs possibly more cut than the others. I know the ground at Epsom was fastish but it was virgin ground and was like a carpet.
4) Dar Re Mi, Back to retain her crown where she had it easy in a poor renewal last year. CD form so must go close.
5) Snow Fairy, will love the ground and has won an Irish Oaks by a distance. He full potential has yet to be be realised.
My view.
1st Snow Fairy
2nd Midday
3rd Dar Re Mi.
It could be the best race of the week at York.
Possibilities
1) Profound Beauty, top class mare probably best at 1.6 and a bit of cut being prepped for the Melbourne Cup
2) Midday, another top class filly who won a substandard Nassau Stakes. Ideal distance and need cut too.
3)Sariska, Another top class filly who is proven at Group 1 level and needs possibly more cut than the others. I know the ground at Epsom was fastish but it was virgin ground and was like a carpet.
4) Dar Re Mi, Back to retain her crown where she had it easy in a poor renewal last year. CD form so must go close.
5) Snow Fairy, will love the ground and has won an Irish Oaks by a distance. He full potential has yet to be be realised.
My view.
1st Snow Fairy
2nd Midday
3rd Dar Re Mi.
Show More
I agree it could be a cracker. There is not much to choose between them all on form. I would be surprised if they all turned up. I reckon that Sraiska is the most likely to give it a swerve and the least likely to be fully wound up.
Snow Fairy looked brilliant in Ireland, but I am not sure she beat much on the ground. she is obviously a danger if she runs, but I think Midday may just have improved. In the Nassau Stakes she quickened like a really decent filly and then having idled, showed she had plenty left to win with some authority from a top class French filly. Although that was difficult to rate, it could be that she had quite a lot in hand. her turn of foot looks a potent weapon and the 3yo fillies last year, with Midday, Sariska and Stacelita look a better bunch than this year's with the exception of Snow Fairy.
Now where is the value? Snow Fairy is ridiculously short in the ante post market. she is probably at 50% cgance of running and a 9/4 shot at best if she runs, so I would want 6/1 before backing her. On the other hand Midday will go on anything apart from very fast or extremely heavy. She is a definite runner and bang in form. She is about as good as the others on form and is trained by the best ever trainer of fillies bar none, and crucially she is at a backable price.. She is a decent price at 7/2 or longer imo. At say 5/1 with the bookies she would be an each way steal. The price on Sariska would look long if she turned up as 5 or 6/1 is too big, and Da Re Me has a chance but there doesn't seem to be any mugs on here to lay any reasonable price.
Snow Fairy looked brilliant in Ireland, but I am not sure she beat much on the ground. she is obviously a danger if she runs, but I think Midday may just have improved. In the Nassau Stakes she quickened like a really decent filly and then having idled, showed she had plenty left to win with some authority from a top class French filly. Although that was difficult to rate, it could be that she had quite a lot in hand. her turn of foot looks a potent weapon and the 3yo fillies last year, with Midday, Sariska and Stacelita look a better bunch than this year's with the exception of Snow Fairy.
Now where is the value? Snow Fairy is ridiculously short in the ante post market. she is probably at 50% cgance of running and a 9/4 shot at best if she runs, so I would want 6/1 before backing her. On the other hand Midday will go on anything apart from very fast or extremely heavy. She is a definite runner and bang in form. She is about as good as the others on form and is trained by the best ever trainer of fillies bar none, and crucially she is at a backable price.. She is a decent price at 7/2 or longer imo. At say 5/1 with the bookies she would be an each way steal. The price on Sariska would look long if she turned up as 5 or 6/1 is too big, and Da Re Me has a chance but there doesn't seem to be any mugs on here to lay any reasonable price.
Cry
I think you summed that up very well and echoed my own thoughts on this race. I would be happy to couple Sariska and Midday at around 11/8 against the field.
Snow Fairy looks like making the market here and in my eyes is the wrong price against the older horses.
I think you summed that up very well and echoed my own thoughts on this race. I would be happy to couple Sariska and Midday at around 11/8 against the field.
Snow Fairy looks like making the market here and in my eyes is the wrong price against the older horses.
Interesting today that the Racing Post made a bit of a deal about Sariska and Snow Fairy being doubtful runners. It does seem that they are keen to go to the Leger with Snow Fairy though. This is a bit of a buggr as I had just laid of my early plunge on her - should have waited a while!
I'm still not sure where this myth of Sasiska needing soft ground comes from. Yes it won in a quagmire in Ireland, but has also won twice on g/f at York and a win on good at Newmarket and a 1st and 2nd on good at Epsom.
So why do people have this misconcoption about her?
So why do people have this misconcoption about her?
I think the ground at the Curragh that day incovenienced the others more than her. Beating Midday at York and the run behing F&G at Epsom are good runs, and she seemed to have no ill effects after. Another media led overreaction.
sariska by far and away the best fuilly in the race imo
the trouble is that phrase "in the race" - she may not be.
like it or otherwise the trainer has made it clear that she won't run again on fast going.
"By far the best filly in the race" is a bit of an overstatement. Timeform rate her 1 lb ahead of Midday, who may have improved since, and Snow Fairy is still unexposed regards her true value.
like it or otherwise the trainer has made it clear that she won't run again on fast going.
"By far the best filly in the race" is a bit of an overstatement. Timeform rate her 1 lb ahead of Midday, who may have improved since, and Snow Fairy is still unexposed regards her true value.
yeyeye midday my back beat her 3 times. snow fairy beating trees nothing more. and i hope sariska doesnt run . keep her nice and fresh for when she gets substantial cut
soapp
would you really have Profound Beauty as a top class mare,in comparison to what she is up against here?
Btw i have noticed you have not got her in your first three,so i have probably jumped the gun again(lol)
would you really have Profound Beauty as a top class mare,in comparison to what she is up against here?
Btw i have noticed you have not got her in your first three,so i have probably jumped the gun again(lol)
Post Your Reply
Please login to post a reply.
Wonder
Instance ID: 13539