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HARBINGER 140 rated & his Arc to lose

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Replies: 58
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Jul 10 14:38
Sandown, as there was only the KG and the falsely run Yashrid race on the round course, I'm interested as to how you have concluded that the round course was riding quicker?
By:
prufrock
When: 26 Jul 10 14:39
Interested to learn that you place a great deal of store by sectionals, as do I. I have not done them regularly at Ascot since they got rid of all the paths there, but my take is that they point to the margins in Saturday's race being somewhat exaggerated. I still don't think it alters the conclusion that Harbinger's performance was out of the top drawer.
By:
Sandown
When: 26 Jul 10 14:53
Have to agree with your first 2.35 post. However, as we don't appear to have changed to any material degree the record of top rated (any ratings) horses winning races over the past 50 odd years, it's clear that there is much more left to consider than ratings so I don't really like to get hung up on them.But it is interesting, nevertheless, to debate.

What a horse is likely to do is what I consider to be more important and that's where sectional times help me.For example, the view that Cape Blanco was running on fumes at the end and he will be interesting dropped back in trip especially as his condition was so good.

All this fades into the margins when turning to the subject of creating an odds line, however. I now find that after years of doing so I rely more on my intuitive feel for is a good price and what is a poor one given all the evidence, but I still keep my hand in occasionally.

Thought so. Enjoyed the read.
By:
Sandown
When: 26 Jul 10 14:56
Figgis

To make sense of the times of all the races I had to work with a faster going allowance for the round course, that's all, and that all comes down to the last race.
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Jul 10 15:04
Sandown
Your standards must be vastly different to mine, as I have Yashrid running 10lbs slower than his best effort, with the other finishers running similarly below their best, due to the pace of the race. If I rated it as a strongly run race then Harbinger's figure would go through the roof. As you said before, we'll have to agree to differ, good luck.
By:
Roger De Bris
When: 26 Jul 10 15:19
Round course slower than straight for me as well. First two races practically ignored for going purposes, they were so out of whack with the rest of the races.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 26 Jul 10 16:14
Officially rated 135 whch seems sensible enough to me - they based this on Cape Blanco running to the same mark (119) as previously.
By:
Jeff_Colby
When: 26 Jul 10 16:48
Sensible rating. Everything but Workforce ran as well as can be expected but they're nothing special.
By:
biggie77
When: 26 Jul 10 22:59
Sandown, you clearly do not believe Harbinger ran to a mark of 135 in the KG.

For my benefit, please could you explain how many additional lengths Harbinger would have been required to win by, in order to achieve a mark of 135, in your opinion?

Or otherwise, please could you explain how many additional seconds Harbinger needed to take off the already broken course record in order to achieve a mark of 135?

Thanks in advance.
By:
Roger De Bris
When: 27 Jul 10 00:36
when you have the sectional times in front of you and you know what the average Group 1 horse runs for a final sector, you dont need to put imaginary numbers on horses. You know that Harbinger ran a nice solid above average Group 1 finish off a fast pace, and that Cape Blanco ran a poor finish for his sector (backed up by his speed figure of 112, which is below the Group 1 average of 117), and the rest have ran poor final sectors as well. Its as simple as that. The course record only hypes it up to greater levels the fact is there have only been 2 Group 1's over 12f at the new Ascot.
By:
ilikewavingatbuses
When: 27 Jul 10 01:08
CB chased pace tho, harbi sat off!
By:
cryoftruth
When: 27 Jul 10 06:05
Timeform get things wrong now and then. but I am more inclined to their 142 than I am Nick Mordin's "he didn't beat much" tripe.
By:
brigust1
When: 27 Jul 10 06:36
Harbinger had the perfect race. Sittig just off the pace which was steady to start with then increased with about a mile to go and then again 4 furlongs out. Capo Blanco and Workforce sat right on the pace early, the pacemaker drew them into the straight quickening and they appeared off the bridle because they were quickening as well, in fact acting like pace setters. Youmzain and Daryakana always come from off the pace which wasn't end to end so didn't suit their race styles.
Ignoring Harbinger the 10f pace of the race suited CB much better than Youm and Dary. Workforce should have been closer to CB but worked too hard with the irregular pace. That is also why the pacemaker never tailed off
Harbinger was awesome anyway you look at it.
By:
empty
When: 27 Jul 10 07:11
Ok, after an hour or two number crunching.


Harbinger has shown significant  improvement  with a performance that is on a par with Sea The Stars Eclipse, Zenyatta's Classic, Quality Roads Donn handicap romp. Zarkava's Arc and so on.

Cape Blanco has run close to his Irish Derby. Youmzain several length below Epsom.Frenchie not bothered with, but position suggests similar to Grand Prix. Workforce an absolute stinker.
By:
Dark Destroyer
When: 27 Jul 10 07:19
I think Harbinger deserves a special award for making so many forumites stick their fingers in their ears while chanting "La La La La La I cant hear you".
By:
ilikewavingatbuses
When: 27 Jul 10 07:27
empty Joined: 14 Oct 04
Replies: 1372 27 Jul 10 07:11 
Ok, after an hour or two number crunching.


Harbinger has shown significant  improvement  with a performance that is on a par with Sea The Stars Eclipse, Zenyatta's Classic, Quality Roads Donn handicap romp. Zarkava's Arc and so on.

Cape Blanco has run close to his Irish Derby. Youmzain several length below Epsom.Frenchie not bothered with, but position suggests similar to Grand Prix. Workforce an absolute stinker.


wf ran to dante form re cape blanco!!harbinger will never win the arc!!ascot horse, age of aq wud have beat him wih a stronger ride  ffs
By:
brigust1
When: 27 Jul 10 07:27
The pacemaking role interests me.
What did Stoute plan to happen?
Using just one pacemaker who is quick but doesn't stay surely mean't the pace would be either steady early, if the setter wanted to take the field into the home straight, or fall apart if the setter went off like a bullet, went clear and then died 5 furlongs out.
What did he plan for Workforce?
What he ended up with was a steady early pace with Workforce over racing and therefore killing his chance.
Did he think Workforce would stay the trip if the pace was a grinder? He knew Harbinger would. Or did he think a mile and a quarter pace would suit Workforce as opposed to Harbinger if he settled early?
By:
empty
When: 27 Jul 10 07:33
wf ran to dante form re cape blanco!!harbinger will never win the arc!!ascot horse, age of aq wud have beat him wih a stronger ride  ffs


If thats your opinion who am i to argue.
By:
ilikewavingatbuses
When: 27 Jul 10 08:37
ah your a good man emptyHappy (sorry for sayin 'ffs')Love
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