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A lot has been said about the King George performance., some good, some bad, and some downright disrespectful. Some marvelling at it, some claiming most horses failed to run to form, & some claiming Harbinger only beat trees! I’m no fool, I’ve seen visually impressive performances before and learnt not to be taken in before checking the form lines and also the time of the race to confirm the likely ratings achieved. In today’s instance, a lot has been said about Workforce running way below form but if you ignore his run as being below par, it becomes a lot easier to rate the race accurately. Working through the runners:
CONFRONT was running over the 12f trip for the first time, & in a pacemaker role. His best form has been over a mile and one win over 9f but has run below par upped to 10f. It is difficult to put a figure on his likely performance today pre-race, but he was unlikely to stay in any case.
DARYAKANA is a useful & consistent filly. She has run 7 times, winning the first 5 of those as a 3yo before two 3rd places behind Plumania this season. Her last 4 races have been over races between 10.5 and 12.5f, on ground ranging from gd-gs & her RPRs for those races are 115 (12.5f gs), 115 (12gd), 113 (10.5gd), 115 (12gs). She has also proven her ability to race abroad from France having won at Sha Tin beating Spanish Moon on the 2nd of those runs above. On the basis of her last 4 runs she could be expected to run to a RPR rating of 115 today.
YOUMZAIN has run 3 times this season with RPRs of 117 (12gf), 121 (12gd), 119 (12gs). Today was his 22nd successive Group 1 appearance. In previous seasons his RPRs have ranged between 109 & 128, but interestingly he has only twice run worse than 115 in his last 23 starts. A 109 at Sha Tin 4 starts back when hampered coming to challenge, so obviously could do better, and a 112 in this race 2yrs ago when very slowly away, hampered 2f out and the squeezed out and losing his place. On the evidence of his last 23 starts which include 3 runs this season, Youmzain could be expected to run to 119 or thereabouts today, providing normal luck in-running and if not slowly away as with 2yrs ago.
CAPE BLANCO has run only 6 times, 3 times as a 2yo & 3 times this yr as a 3yo. These races rated RPRs 82 (7gd), 106 (7YS), 108 (7S) & this season 120 (10gf Dante), 105 (10.5S), 123 (12gf). His disappointing run this season being in France on soft ground, when also running wide. His better ground form & his 12f gf run in Ireland LTO suggest he would run to 123 today with room for a little improvement.
WORKFORCE had run only 3 times. A maiden win, 2nd in the Dante, and a visually impressive Derby win in record time. His RPRs were 96 (7gd last yr), 114 (10gf) & 129 (12gf). The Derby win rating gave him every chance to win this & indeed he really could be anything granted his steep rating curve, but several disappointed in the Derby and the form wasn’t standing up. If somehow flattering him, he had several lengths to make up on CAPE BLANCO alone from the Dante, nevermind getting to HARBINGER. His likely rating in the King George could be anything from 114-130s.
HARBINGER made his debut as a 3yo and progressed last season to run RPR116 twice over 12f once on gd at Goodwood, & once on soft at Newbury. This season he has progressed to 121 (12g), 126 (13gs), & 129 (12gf). Of note, that last run was over CD & he won the race quite easily and was open to further improvement today. I rated his likely performance today anywhere from the low 130s up.
To summarise, I rated the likely performance of each runner today as:
HARBINGER 130-135
WORKFORCE 114-130s
CAPE BLANCO 123-126
YOUMZAIN 119
DARYAKANA 118 (incl. 3lb fillies allowance)
CONFRONT 105 (at best)
In the race itself, CONFRONT went a solid pace & there were no excuses with trouble in running etc. The race was won in record time, this was no sprint to the line with dubious form. The fact YOUMZAIN bt DARYAKANA a nk, whilst being 3 1/4L behind CAPE BLANCO would support the ratings I suggested above. If DARYAKANA ran to 115 in line with this season’s previous 4 runs (adjusted to 118 with fillies allowance), YOUMZAIN thus ran to 118/119 which is consistent with his previous 3 runs this season, CAPE BLANCO ran to 123 in line with his Irish Derby win LTO & 3lbs superior to his ready Dante win, & HARBINGER therefore ran to 139/140 (based on 1.5lbs per length at 12f). In terms of these ratings, WORKFORCE would rate as having run to circa 112, 2lbs below his Dante win. Hopefully he can prove this a temporary blip and get back to figures in the 120s upwards from here.
I am not pronouncing Harbinger as better than Sea The Stars, Dancing Brave or any other horse, but based on the consistent form shown by today’s 2nd, 3rd and 4th previously, the finishing distances between them today tying in with their ratings, & the course record time, imo this King George winner has achieved the highest bare flat rating I have ever seen in my tender 32yrs!! We’ll never know just how good Sea The Stars was, he only did enough and the bare form of his wins could therefore only be rated a few lbs better than the next best, but his consistency could not be faulted last yr. The official handicapper gave STS his final mark based partly on his potential to have won further had he not dossed in front. The difference today, is that Harbinger actually achieved a similar level of form to STS final rating, not on potential to win further, but just on the bare form of the race. I would hope the ratings for the race will broadly follow that I have suggested. Whether Harbinger can repeat the form again, who knows? But whilst WORKFORCE was billed as the next coming based almost solely on his win in the Derby (always dangerous to believe one rating produced, whether it’s the Derby winner or a seller at Catterick), HARBINGER has shown a continued progressive profile from his debut run (York aside, which was clearly not his true running at all). This improvement has come every race, regardless of running on ground ranging from gf to soft, and at tracks ranging from Goodwood to Newbury, Chester to Ascot. This horse really does look the real deal, and with his arrival at the very top level coming only one yr after STS, I for one hope he absolutely hoses up in the Arc against a number of common STS rivals to cement his greatness in the record books. I’ll certainly be there to see if he does. FINGERS CROSSED!!
CONFRONT was running over the 12f trip for the first time, & in a pacemaker role. His best form has been over a mile and one win over 9f but has run below par upped to 10f. It is difficult to put a figure on his likely performance today pre-race, but he was unlikely to stay in any case.
DARYAKANA is a useful & consistent filly. She has run 7 times, winning the first 5 of those as a 3yo before two 3rd places behind Plumania this season. Her last 4 races have been over races between 10.5 and 12.5f, on ground ranging from gd-gs & her RPRs for those races are 115 (12.5f gs), 115 (12gd), 113 (10.5gd), 115 (12gs). She has also proven her ability to race abroad from France having won at Sha Tin beating Spanish Moon on the 2nd of those runs above. On the basis of her last 4 runs she could be expected to run to a RPR rating of 115 today.
YOUMZAIN has run 3 times this season with RPRs of 117 (12gf), 121 (12gd), 119 (12gs). Today was his 22nd successive Group 1 appearance. In previous seasons his RPRs have ranged between 109 & 128, but interestingly he has only twice run worse than 115 in his last 23 starts. A 109 at Sha Tin 4 starts back when hampered coming to challenge, so obviously could do better, and a 112 in this race 2yrs ago when very slowly away, hampered 2f out and the squeezed out and losing his place. On the evidence of his last 23 starts which include 3 runs this season, Youmzain could be expected to run to 119 or thereabouts today, providing normal luck in-running and if not slowly away as with 2yrs ago.
CAPE BLANCO has run only 6 times, 3 times as a 2yo & 3 times this yr as a 3yo. These races rated RPRs 82 (7gd), 106 (7YS), 108 (7S) & this season 120 (10gf Dante), 105 (10.5S), 123 (12gf). His disappointing run this season being in France on soft ground, when also running wide. His better ground form & his 12f gf run in Ireland LTO suggest he would run to 123 today with room for a little improvement.
WORKFORCE had run only 3 times. A maiden win, 2nd in the Dante, and a visually impressive Derby win in record time. His RPRs were 96 (7gd last yr), 114 (10gf) & 129 (12gf). The Derby win rating gave him every chance to win this & indeed he really could be anything granted his steep rating curve, but several disappointed in the Derby and the form wasn’t standing up. If somehow flattering him, he had several lengths to make up on CAPE BLANCO alone from the Dante, nevermind getting to HARBINGER. His likely rating in the King George could be anything from 114-130s.
HARBINGER made his debut as a 3yo and progressed last season to run RPR116 twice over 12f once on gd at Goodwood, & once on soft at Newbury. This season he has progressed to 121 (12g), 126 (13gs), & 129 (12gf). Of note, that last run was over CD & he won the race quite easily and was open to further improvement today. I rated his likely performance today anywhere from the low 130s up.
To summarise, I rated the likely performance of each runner today as:
HARBINGER 130-135
WORKFORCE 114-130s
CAPE BLANCO 123-126
YOUMZAIN 119
DARYAKANA 118 (incl. 3lb fillies allowance)
CONFRONT 105 (at best)
In the race itself, CONFRONT went a solid pace & there were no excuses with trouble in running etc. The race was won in record time, this was no sprint to the line with dubious form. The fact YOUMZAIN bt DARYAKANA a nk, whilst being 3 1/4L behind CAPE BLANCO would support the ratings I suggested above. If DARYAKANA ran to 115 in line with this season’s previous 4 runs (adjusted to 118 with fillies allowance), YOUMZAIN thus ran to 118/119 which is consistent with his previous 3 runs this season, CAPE BLANCO ran to 123 in line with his Irish Derby win LTO & 3lbs superior to his ready Dante win, & HARBINGER therefore ran to 139/140 (based on 1.5lbs per length at 12f). In terms of these ratings, WORKFORCE would rate as having run to circa 112, 2lbs below his Dante win. Hopefully he can prove this a temporary blip and get back to figures in the 120s upwards from here.
I am not pronouncing Harbinger as better than Sea The Stars, Dancing Brave or any other horse, but based on the consistent form shown by today’s 2nd, 3rd and 4th previously, the finishing distances between them today tying in with their ratings, & the course record time, imo this King George winner has achieved the highest bare flat rating I have ever seen in my tender 32yrs!! We’ll never know just how good Sea The Stars was, he only did enough and the bare form of his wins could therefore only be rated a few lbs better than the next best, but his consistency could not be faulted last yr. The official handicapper gave STS his final mark based partly on his potential to have won further had he not dossed in front. The difference today, is that Harbinger actually achieved a similar level of form to STS final rating, not on potential to win further, but just on the bare form of the race. I would hope the ratings for the race will broadly follow that I have suggested. Whether Harbinger can repeat the form again, who knows? But whilst WORKFORCE was billed as the next coming based almost solely on his win in the Derby (always dangerous to believe one rating produced, whether it’s the Derby winner or a seller at Catterick), HARBINGER has shown a continued progressive profile from his debut run (York aside, which was clearly not his true running at all). This improvement has come every race, regardless of running on ground ranging from gf to soft, and at tracks ranging from Goodwood to Newbury, Chester to Ascot. This horse really does look the real deal, and with his arrival at the very top level coming only one yr after STS, I for one hope he absolutely hoses up in the Arc against a number of common STS rivals to cement his greatness in the record books. I’ll certainly be there to see if he does. FINGERS CROSSED!!
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I agree Biggie, have you been reading my notes?
This form looks amazingly solid. Other than opinions there are no angles for excuse from the other runners. Youmzain performed pound for pound with Daryakama on their last running and the same applies to Capo Blanco and Workforce. None can claim they ran a pound below par.
Also Harbinger had solid progressive form before this race. There will be a lot of punters in denial because Ryan Moore picked Workforce but they having nothing solid to back them up.
Add to that other winners like Generous haven't managed to carry them form on but they were 3 year olds whereas Harbinger is 4 and the Arc must now be a formality.
This form looks amazingly solid. Other than opinions there are no angles for excuse from the other runners. Youmzain performed pound for pound with Daryakama on their last running and the same applies to Capo Blanco and Workforce. None can claim they ran a pound below par.
Also Harbinger had solid progressive form before this race. There will be a lot of punters in denial because Ryan Moore picked Workforce but they having nothing solid to back them up.
Add to that other winners like Generous haven't managed to carry them form on but they were 3 year olds whereas Harbinger is 4 and the Arc must now be a formality.
Agree with pretty much all of that - though I'd neevr say any race is a formality let alone an Arc.
It was the best performance for many years - maybe something like Sakhee or Royal Anthem in their Juddmonte wins would be comparable. But having said that whereas Sahkee went on to win the Arc by 6L next time, Royal Anthem got stuffed in the Irish Champion.
It was the best performance for many years - maybe something like Sakhee or Royal Anthem in their Juddmonte wins would be comparable. But having said that whereas Sahkee went on to win the Arc by 6L next time, Royal Anthem got stuffed in the Irish Champion.
I agree pretty much with everything in biggie77's excellent analysis, except that I don't normally take into account the sex allowance (unlike the weight for age allowance) when calculating ratings. I reckon Harbinger probably ran to an official mark in the high 130's. But I completely disagree with brigust1's assertion that Workforce did not run below par. For what it's worth here's what I put on another thread ('Workforce will never win another race'):
I can't understand how anyone can seriously believe that Workforce ran to his best yesterday. I'm prepared to believe that Cape Blanco may have run the best race of his career to date - after all, he beat the 117-rated Youmzain by 3¼ lengths, which suggests that he ran to a mark of 122 (he was officially rated 119 going into the race). Workforce was beaten 5½ lengths by Cape Blanco, which suggests that he ran to a mark of about 113-114. Now, I'm prepared to accept that the official rating achieved by Workforce in the Derby (128) may be slightly inflated, but there's no way he's just a 113-114 horse: that would make him the worst Derby winner in history.
No, let's be honest, Workforce put up a very special performance at Epsom and the subsequent form shown by some of the beaten horses underlines just how good that performance was: Jan Vermeer and Midas Touch were beaten 11 lengths at Epsom but finished within a couple of lengths of Cape Blanco in the Irish Derby; even if you think that the enigmatic At First Sight (beaten 7 lengths at Epsom) ran to his best in the Irish Derby, which is a very dubious proposition, he still finished closer to Cape Blanco than he did to Workforce at Epsom; Buzzword, beaten 16 lengths at Epsom, was only beaten 4½ lengths in the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot next time out. To suggest that Workforce merely ran to his Dante form yesterday is laughable: for a start, he finished a couple of lengths further behind Cape Blanco than he did at York, and secondly every sane judge in the racing world accepts that Workforce put up a much improved performance at Epsom compared with York (one explanation for the improvement being that he hung badly and had an awkward head carriage at York due to the fact that the bit had slipped through his mouth). Even if you downgrade Workforce's official rating for his Derby win from 128 to 120, if you then believe that Workforce ran to his best in yesterday's race (as some people on here seem to be suggesting) you have to give Harbinger a rating of about 145, which would make him by far the highest rated horse I have ever seen (about 10lbs ahead of the likes of Sea The Stars and Dubai Millennium).
The truth surely is that Harbinger produced a superb performance (probably equivalent to an official rating in the upper 130's) and that Workforce ran well below his best. On the basis that Harbinger ran to a mark of about 138, which doesn't seem unreasonable (unless you believe that every other horse in the race ran below their official rating) I estimate that Workforce ran about a stone below the official rating he achieved in the Derby. Those who continue to knock the Derby form (despite the fact that the winner smashed the track record) need to explain why it was that some very useful colts were unable to make any impression on Workforce through the final two furlongs of the race.
I can't understand how anyone can seriously believe that Workforce ran to his best yesterday. I'm prepared to believe that Cape Blanco may have run the best race of his career to date - after all, he beat the 117-rated Youmzain by 3¼ lengths, which suggests that he ran to a mark of 122 (he was officially rated 119 going into the race). Workforce was beaten 5½ lengths by Cape Blanco, which suggests that he ran to a mark of about 113-114. Now, I'm prepared to accept that the official rating achieved by Workforce in the Derby (128) may be slightly inflated, but there's no way he's just a 113-114 horse: that would make him the worst Derby winner in history.
No, let's be honest, Workforce put up a very special performance at Epsom and the subsequent form shown by some of the beaten horses underlines just how good that performance was: Jan Vermeer and Midas Touch were beaten 11 lengths at Epsom but finished within a couple of lengths of Cape Blanco in the Irish Derby; even if you think that the enigmatic At First Sight (beaten 7 lengths at Epsom) ran to his best in the Irish Derby, which is a very dubious proposition, he still finished closer to Cape Blanco than he did to Workforce at Epsom; Buzzword, beaten 16 lengths at Epsom, was only beaten 4½ lengths in the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot next time out. To suggest that Workforce merely ran to his Dante form yesterday is laughable: for a start, he finished a couple of lengths further behind Cape Blanco than he did at York, and secondly every sane judge in the racing world accepts that Workforce put up a much improved performance at Epsom compared with York (one explanation for the improvement being that he hung badly and had an awkward head carriage at York due to the fact that the bit had slipped through his mouth). Even if you downgrade Workforce's official rating for his Derby win from 128 to 120, if you then believe that Workforce ran to his best in yesterday's race (as some people on here seem to be suggesting) you have to give Harbinger a rating of about 145, which would make him by far the highest rated horse I have ever seen (about 10lbs ahead of the likes of Sea The Stars and Dubai Millennium).
The truth surely is that Harbinger produced a superb performance (probably equivalent to an official rating in the upper 130's) and that Workforce ran well below his best. On the basis that Harbinger ran to a mark of about 138, which doesn't seem unreasonable (unless you believe that every other horse in the race ran below their official rating) I estimate that Workforce ran about a stone below the official rating he achieved in the Derby. Those who continue to knock the Derby form (despite the fact that the winner smashed the track record) need to explain why it was that some very useful colts were unable to make any impression on Workforce through the final two furlongs of the race.
This handicappers conference needs to be woken up with a dose of reality. Harbinger was gifted the King George. None of his rivals showed up. Theyve ran stinkers.
What makes you believe that Harbinger's four main rivals all ran 'stinkers'? Youmzain, for example, is one of the most consistent performers around: he has achieved a Racing Post Rating of at least 115 in every race he's run in since August 2006, with just two exceptions (the King George in 2008 when he was very slowly away and met plenty of trouble in running, and his final race of 2009 in Hong Kong when he was badly hampered). If he ran to a mark of at least 115 yesterday (as he had done in 21 of his last 23 races) then Harbinger has to be rated around 137+.
The suggestion that no other horse ran up to form is absoluutely laughable. Absolutely no evidence to suggest that's the case.
So I'll educate all you put an imaginary number on a horse dreamers. Thats whats laughable. The pace was too strong for Cape Blanco to put up a Group 1 finish. He was walking home compared to his effort in the Irish Derby. I've said enough, and theres work to be done for other races. Good luck with the future guessing if a horse ran its race...
forget the final placings,those who said cape blanco ran a personal best,he was off the bridle 3 furlongs out, and was struggling to get past a mile and a quater handicapper, weve gone from workforce being a world beater due to a time at epsom,and now harbinger,s a world beater due to a time at ascot
horseforcourses it was also laughable when people said forget workforces time at epsom he beat nothing but a 200 to 1 shot,6 weeks later they were proved right
Not really sure I understand the argument here. If Cape Blanco was struggling 3 out because the pace was so hot and that pace meant a Group 1 finish was impossible why wasn't Harbinger who was racing immediately behind him affected the same - surely it is because Harbinger, on the day, was a vastly superior animal.
or it might show the 3 yr olds didnt show there form
It is a horses ability to quicken of a fast pace and maintaqin that gallop right to the line in record time that separates the truly great group 1 horses from the others. I was there at ascot yesterday (backed workforce
) and that is the most snesational performance i have ever seen in any group 1 middle distance race. I wasnt convinced about Harbinger before the race but seeing is believing the way he cruised through the race with that lovely balanced action reminded me of the mighty Galileo, then when Peslier asked him to quicken the response was immediate and devastating for the others. I believe the Cape Blanco with another year of seasoning will be formidable in all the top middle distance races from 10f to 12f. If you take Harbinger out of the race he would have beaten Youmzain and daryakana who are both reliable group 1 yardsticks, and we'd all be hailing him as a great. As for workforce, personally i wouldnt b ewriting him off on the back of this dismal performance. Perhaps the record breaking run in the derby took more out of him than was thought but i thought he saw too much daylight and might have been best served tucking in behind his pace maker as he seemed to never be totally relaxed and settled throughout and at the business end he had nothing in the tank. People should just be happy that we saw a magical performance that will be talked about in years to come, and no amount of ratings or speedfigures, and debating who ran/didnt to form will truly convey the immense pleasure gleane by all who witnessed this truly magical performance at ascot yesterday
) and that is the most snesational performance i have ever seen in any group 1 middle distance race. I wasnt convinced about Harbinger before the race but seeing is believing the way he cruised through the race with that lovely balanced action reminded me of the mighty Galileo, then when Peslier asked him to quicken the response was immediate and devastating for the others. I believe the Cape Blanco with another year of seasoning will be formidable in all the top middle distance races from 10f to 12f. If you take Harbinger out of the race he would have beaten Youmzain and daryakana who are both reliable group 1 yardsticks, and we'd all be hailing him as a great. As for workforce, personally i wouldnt b ewriting him off on the back of this dismal performance. Perhaps the record breaking run in the derby took more out of him than was thought but i thought he saw too much daylight and might have been best served tucking in behind his pace maker as he seemed to never be totally relaxed and settled throughout and at the business end he had nothing in the tank. People should just be happy that we saw a magical performance that will be talked about in years to come, and no amount of ratings or speedfigures, and debating who ran/didnt to form will truly convey the immense pleasure gleane by all who witnessed this truly magical performance at ascot yesterday
If the pace had been too strong then Daryakana and Youmzain (who both waited out the back) would have passed Cape Blanco. They didn't.
***i mean it is the most sensational flat performance i have seen in the flesh...
At least Timeform can believe their own eyes unlike many on here
I think A_T has hit the nail on the head, both Youmzain and the filly has there chance to pass cape blanco if the pace had been too string but that horse kept pulling out more and if anything he was pulling away from that pair again at the line. The runner-up has put up a really brave and tough performance but run into an outstanding horse in Harbinger.
jamesp, I may have confused with my analysis regarding the fillies allowance. I believe that Daryakana ran to a RPR rating of 115 once again yesterday, not to 118, but due to getting 3lbs from Youmzain her RACE RPR against another 4yo+; equated to 118 to Youmzain's 119 (nk ahead). Likewise, if a 2yo filly with a 5lb fillies allowance dead-heated in a maiden with a 2yo colt, the filly's RPR rating would be 5lbs below that of the colt. I understand that a 3yo colt and a 3yo filly both rated 82 in a handicap would run off the same weight and if dead-heating would be given the same RPR for that performance (ease of win ignored etc).
I also think my writing in regard to RPRs has confused a few others who have compared my suggestion of a RPR of 139 with an OFFICIAL mark, or a TIMEFORM rating (actually given as 142). They are different ratings scales and cannot be compared strictly with one another. For example, Sea The Stars best RPR achieved was 138 in the Irish Champion, his final official mark was 137, whereas Timeform rated him as 140.
I also think my writing in regard to RPRs has confused a few others who have compared my suggestion of a RPR of 139 with an OFFICIAL mark, or a TIMEFORM rating (actually given as 142). They are different ratings scales and cannot be compared strictly with one another. For example, Sea The Stars best RPR achieved was 138 in the Irish Champion, his final official mark was 137, whereas Timeform rated him as 140.
*but due to getting 3lbs from Youmzain her a d j u s t e d RACE RPR against another 4yo+; equated to 118 (oops)
Any approach to ratings has to make assumptions about how the other horses ran.With collateral ratings it is very hard for the handicapper to downgrade other horses very much especially if several would have to be so downgraaded. (How probable is it that 4 horses underperformed and if so could they all have run so far below form?)The assumption of which horse is to be the "marker" horse is critical - even if a statistical averaging is used much the same outcome is achieved.
Collateral ratings have the advantage of being easy to calculate, use a single figure which makes comparison easy, and can be done so by almost anyone. They are nevertheless an expression of opinion and remain so no matter who does them, Timeform, the official handicapper or individuals.
As an accurate guide to past performance they can eventually be useful after a number of runs but they will consistently underrate horses who only win by the minimum necessary. As a predictor for future performances they are not very good. Thank goodness they are heavily used and have a major influence on prices otherwise it would be a very difficult game indeed to find good bets.
Collateral ratings have the advantage of being easy to calculate, use a single figure which makes comparison easy, and can be done so by almost anyone. They are nevertheless an expression of opinion and remain so no matter who does them, Timeform, the official handicapper or individuals.
As an accurate guide to past performance they can eventually be useful after a number of runs but they will consistently underrate horses who only win by the minimum necessary. As a predictor for future performances they are not very good. Thank goodness they are heavily used and have a major influence on prices otherwise it would be a very difficult game indeed to find good bets.
If you rated the race through the RPR achieved by each of the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th based on their last run, you would have 3 separate sets of figures for y'day's race. 2 of those sets would be identical, & the other set would be only 2lbs higher for each runner. I think I can therefore make a strong case for the ratings I suggested above.
Some non-mathematical points to consider for all you form students. All opinion of course.
In the paddock Workforce was not a standout. Compared to York, where he was physical stronger-looking than Cape Blanco, on this day there was nothing in it. If anything, Cape Blanco looked in better condition. Assuming that Workforce was in the condition of his life at Epsom I would guess that the hard race took a lot out of him. Youmzain looked "wired" very nervy and showed it by sweating. I am prepared to believe that both Workforce and Youmzain ran well below their usual form.In any event, Youmzain appears better in the autumn with some cut judging by his past ratings.
On my figures, Cape Blanco's best performance was in the Dante over 10.5 furlongs. I think he won a poor Irish Derby, showed there that he was tiring and his performance at Ascot showed that he was running on empty over the last 2 furlongs.
That leaves the French filly. To my eye, there was nothing wrong with her although she was jig-joggy. Did she run to form? I don't think so. Looking at her form it could be that she is better with some cut.
Now, who do you want to rate the race around? Is it possible that Harbinger, who was impressive no doubt, beat out of form horses? Surely not, that's not possible. They can't all be out of form, can they? Well long odds on chances get beat everyday, so why not? Just a thought before rating Harbinger on this one race?
In the paddock Workforce was not a standout. Compared to York, where he was physical stronger-looking than Cape Blanco, on this day there was nothing in it. If anything, Cape Blanco looked in better condition. Assuming that Workforce was in the condition of his life at Epsom I would guess that the hard race took a lot out of him. Youmzain looked "wired" very nervy and showed it by sweating. I am prepared to believe that both Workforce and Youmzain ran well below their usual form.In any event, Youmzain appears better in the autumn with some cut judging by his past ratings.
On my figures, Cape Blanco's best performance was in the Dante over 10.5 furlongs. I think he won a poor Irish Derby, showed there that he was tiring and his performance at Ascot showed that he was running on empty over the last 2 furlongs.
That leaves the French filly. To my eye, there was nothing wrong with her although she was jig-joggy. Did she run to form? I don't think so. Looking at her form it could be that she is better with some cut.
Now, who do you want to rate the race around? Is it possible that Harbinger, who was impressive no doubt, beat out of form horses? Surely not, that's not possible. They can't all be out of form, can they? Well long odds on chances get beat everyday, so why not? Just a thought before rating Harbinger on this one race?
Actually, Sandown, I agree that all of the opposition ran below their very best to some degree, but as I've said on another thread, I cannot see how anybody who uses times to produce ratings (and knows what they're doing) can give Harbinger anything other than a very high figure for Saturday.
Collateral ratings have the advantage of being easy to calculate, use a single figure which makes comparison easy, and can be done so by almost anyone. They are nevertheless an expression of opinion and remain so no matter who does them, Timeform, the official handicapper or individuals.
Race standardisation is not a matter of opinion, even if the final say on a figure usually involves human judgement.
Race standardisation is not a matter of opinion, even if the final say on a figure usually involves human judgement.
They can't all be out of form, can they? Well long odds on chances get beat everyday, so why not?
That only needs one horse in race to be out of form. For 4 out of 6 to be out of form in a race for which they have been targeted would be very unlikely and would be a conclusion only reached by someone looking for reasons to denegrate the winner's performance.
That only needs one horse in race to be out of form. For 4 out of 6 to be out of form in a race for which they have been targeted would be very unlikely and would be a conclusion only reached by someone looking for reasons to denegrate the winner's performance.
Yashrid's race was falsely run, which as it was the only other race on the round course could often make outside influences on the final times difficult to interpret, particularly at Ascot. To be honest, the majority of the races on the straight don't make things much easier, mainly consisting of lightly raced horses in races that weren't run terifically fast, but I would find it improbable to rate them all much lower than I already have. However, the Castles in the Air race is absolutely solid, I have 5 of the first 6 finishers running to a figure equal to or slightly lower than their best figures in the recent past.
I am quite happy to use the same allowance for the round course, which gives Harbinger a rating just 1lb higher than the big rating I had for him in the Hardwicke. Some people may want to believe the round course was riding quicker than the straight, while not impossible, that would completely go against the grain of how things are at Ascot these days, as when there is a difference, it is nearly always the round course that's slower.
To give the entire card a quicker allowance would mean that none of the horses in the big 7f handicap ran to their best, the rest of the supporting races were appallingly slow and the visual impression of the KG was just an optical illusion.
I am quite happy to use the same allowance for the round course, which gives Harbinger a rating just 1lb higher than the big rating I had for him in the Hardwicke. Some people may want to believe the round course was riding quicker than the straight, while not impossible, that would completely go against the grain of how things are at Ascot these days, as when there is a difference, it is nearly always the round course that's slower.
To give the entire card a quicker allowance would mean that none of the horses in the big 7f handicap ran to their best, the rest of the supporting races were appallingly slow and the visual impression of the KG was just an optical illusion.
Prufrock
If race standardisation gets you going, fine. Personally, I find that statistical methodology gets you very close to the same kind of outcome as yardstick handicapping in any event. I prefer to look at the race in the round, including pace, tactics, conditions and fitness with a heavy reliance on sectional times. Even then, I'm reluctant to reduce everything to a single figure to measure a performance. It's about as useful as describing a scene in 2 dimensions only without either the use of colour, light and shade.
Jeff Colby
a conclusion only reached by someone looking for reasons to denegrate the winner's performance.
Or someone just trying to be as objective as possible.
If race standardisation gets you going, fine. Personally, I find that statistical methodology gets you very close to the same kind of outcome as yardstick handicapping in any event. I prefer to look at the race in the round, including pace, tactics, conditions and fitness with a heavy reliance on sectional times. Even then, I'm reluctant to reduce everything to a single figure to measure a performance. It's about as useful as describing a scene in 2 dimensions only without either the use of colour, light and shade.
Jeff Colby
a conclusion only reached by someone looking for reasons to denegrate the winner's performance.
Or someone just trying to be as objective as possible.
Choosing an extremely unlikely explanation is not being objective.
Jeff Colby
Not unlikely at all. Nearly every race has four or more horses running well below their best.
Not unlikely at all. Nearly every race has four or more horses running well below their best.
Figgis
The race won by Yashrid fitted the usual pattern of slow early, quickening up later or as you put it, falsely run. Nevertheless, even if giving it full credit for being a strongly run race, and comparing it with the KG, it is impossible to give Harbinger the sort of rating that is being banded about. Given the comparative splits, I would argue the case that Harbinger's performance in the Hardwicke was at least as good if not better this his KG run. How about that as a contentious point?
Incidently, whilst I reckon you are right about previous differences between the straight and the round courses, I too found the round course seemed to be racing faster. That could be down to the wind (didn't notice it on the day) or maybe they just watered the straight a bit more. Who knows?
The race won by Yashrid fitted the usual pattern of slow early, quickening up later or as you put it, falsely run. Nevertheless, even if giving it full credit for being a strongly run race, and comparing it with the KG, it is impossible to give Harbinger the sort of rating that is being banded about. Given the comparative splits, I would argue the case that Harbinger's performance in the Hardwicke was at least as good if not better this his KG run. How about that as a contentious point?
Incidently, whilst I reckon you are right about previous differences between the straight and the round courses, I too found the round course seemed to be racing faster. That could be down to the wind (didn't notice it on the day) or maybe they just watered the straight a bit more. Who knows?
For me Youmzain came into the race with much the same preparation (having his previous run in the Grand Prix De Saint Cloud) and then ran exactly the same sort of race that he had done on his two previous attempts in the KG - never looking like the winner but running on for a place - and the fact that Daryakana was alongside him for the 2nd race running backs up that feeling that he ran to his usual form level of around 116. He obviously runs better at Longchamp in October when he seems to run to a mark of about 122.
With Youmzain beaten 14.5L and 1.5lb's per length that gives Harbinger a mark of 137-138. So anything between 135 and 140 would be an acceptable figure to me.
With Youmzain beaten 14.5L and 1.5lb's per length that gives Harbinger a mark of 137-138. So anything between 135 and 140 would be an acceptable figure to me.
unclepuncle
I think this is the best example for ages of why collateral handicappers and time enthusiasts can see the same race in entirely different ways. With that kind of rating he goes to the Arc with the highest rating for a long time and should win.Time will tell!
I think this is the best example for ages of why collateral handicappers and time enthusiasts can see the same race in entirely different ways. With that kind of rating he goes to the Arc with the highest rating for a long time and should win.Time will tell!
Sandown
Race standardisation not only "gets me going" but, more to the point, improves the accuracy of my assessments (and of all other handicappers I have worked with). Nonetheless, like you, I see analysis as multi-dimensional and use standardised ratings only in conjunction with other approaches. Most or all of these approaches can be expressed in numbers, which is a good job as, ultimately, whether a horse is a bet or not does come down to a decision on the accuracy of a single figure: a horse's odds.
Race standardisation not only "gets me going" but, more to the point, improves the accuracy of my assessments (and of all other handicappers I have worked with). Nonetheless, like you, I see analysis as multi-dimensional and use standardised ratings only in conjunction with other approaches. Most or all of these approaches can be expressed in numbers, which is a good job as, ultimately, whether a horse is a bet or not does come down to a decision on the accuracy of a single figure: a horse's odds.
Sandown, you have the advantage of me as far as sectionals are concerned but I would argue that they often become a red herring unless the person analysing the splits has a firm grip on the merits of the final times, even then, as far as the big picture is concerned they quite often tell you no more than your own eyes told you, obviously there are exceptions. I don't understand your conclusion at all when comparing the race time to Yashrid's.
As for your view on the Hardwicke performance, you might be surprised that basically I agree that it was about as good as the KG. I have the KG only 1lb better, much as I have faith in my methods I wouldn't quibble about a 1lb difference and for future betting purposes I consider them as equal performances. Some may say Harbinger had more in hand on Saturday, but it was a strongly run race and my view is that horses don't usually find much more than half a length when put under pressure in those circumstances.
As for your view on the Hardwicke performance, you might be surprised that basically I agree that it was about as good as the KG. I have the KG only 1lb better, much as I have faith in my methods I wouldn't quibble about a 1lb difference and for future betting purposes I consider them as equal performances. Some may say Harbinger had more in hand on Saturday, but it was a strongly run race and my view is that horses don't usually find much more than half a length when put under pressure in those circumstances.
Translating perceived merit(however assessed) into odds is another kettle of fish altogether prufrock, is it not? Is your real name Simon by the way?
What I would maintain is that a vital component of coming up with an odds line is measuring what a horse has done and is likely to do. Race standardisation is a way of doing that more accurately than most/all of the alternatives. And it is essentially objective, even if decisions based on such evidence do not have to be.
Yes.
Yes.
Sandown, as there was only the KG and the falsely run Yashrid race on the round course, I'm interested as to how you have concluded that the round course was riding quicker?
Interested to learn that you place a great deal of store by sectionals, as do I. I have not done them regularly at Ascot since they got rid of all the paths there, but my take is that they point to the margins in Saturday's race being somewhat exaggerated. I still don't think it alters the conclusion that Harbinger's performance was out of the top drawer.
Have to agree with your first 2.35 post. However, as we don't appear to have changed to any material degree the record of top rated (any ratings) horses winning races over the past 50 odd years, it's clear that there is much more left to consider than ratings so I don't really like to get hung up on them.But it is interesting, nevertheless, to debate.
What a horse is likely to do is what I consider to be more important and that's where sectional times help me.For example, the view that Cape Blanco was running on fumes at the end and he will be interesting dropped back in trip especially as his condition was so good.
All this fades into the margins when turning to the subject of creating an odds line, however. I now find that after years of doing so I rely more on my intuitive feel for is a good price and what is a poor one given all the evidence, but I still keep my hand in occasionally.
Thought so. Enjoyed the read.
What a horse is likely to do is what I consider to be more important and that's where sectional times help me.For example, the view that Cape Blanco was running on fumes at the end and he will be interesting dropped back in trip especially as his condition was so good.
All this fades into the margins when turning to the subject of creating an odds line, however. I now find that after years of doing so I rely more on my intuitive feel for is a good price and what is a poor one given all the evidence, but I still keep my hand in occasionally.
Thought so. Enjoyed the read.
Figgis
To make sense of the times of all the races I had to work with a faster going allowance for the round course, that's all, and that all comes down to the last race.
To make sense of the times of all the races I had to work with a faster going allowance for the round course, that's all, and that all comes down to the last race.
Sandown
Your standards must be vastly different to mine, as I have Yashrid running 10lbs slower than his best effort, with the other finishers running similarly below their best, due to the pace of the race. If I rated it as a strongly run race then Harbinger's figure would go through the roof. As you said before, we'll have to agree to differ, good luck.
Your standards must be vastly different to mine, as I have Yashrid running 10lbs slower than his best effort, with the other finishers running similarly below their best, due to the pace of the race. If I rated it as a strongly run race then Harbinger's figure would go through the roof. As you said before, we'll have to agree to differ, good luck.
Round course slower than straight for me as well. First two races practically ignored for going purposes, they were so out of whack with the rest of the races.
Officially rated 135 whch seems sensible enough to me - they based this on Cape Blanco running to the same mark (119) as previously.
Sensible rating. Everything but Workforce ran as well as can be expected but they're nothing special.
Sandown, you clearly do not believe Harbinger ran to a mark of 135 in the KG.
For my benefit, please could you explain how many additional lengths Harbinger would have been required to win by, in order to achieve a mark of 135, in your opinion?
Or otherwise, please could you explain how many additional seconds Harbinger needed to take off the already broken course record in order to achieve a mark of 135?
Thanks in advance.
For my benefit, please could you explain how many additional lengths Harbinger would have been required to win by, in order to achieve a mark of 135, in your opinion?
Or otherwise, please could you explain how many additional seconds Harbinger needed to take off the already broken course record in order to achieve a mark of 135?
Thanks in advance.
when you have the sectional times in front of you and you know what the average Group 1 horse runs for a final sector, you dont need to put imaginary numbers on horses. You know that Harbinger ran a nice solid above average Group 1 finish off a fast pace, and that Cape Blanco ran a poor finish for his sector (backed up by his speed figure of 112, which is below the Group 1 average of 117), and the rest have ran poor final sectors as well. Its as simple as that. The course record only hypes it up to greater levels the fact is there have only been 2 Group 1's over 12f at the new Ascot.
Timeform get things wrong now and then. but I am more inclined to their 142 than I am Nick Mordin's "he didn't beat much" tripe.
Harbinger had the perfect race. Sittig just off the pace which was steady to start with then increased with about a mile to go and then again 4 furlongs out. Capo Blanco and Workforce sat right on the pace early, the pacemaker drew them into the straight quickening and they appeared off the bridle because they were quickening as well, in fact acting like pace setters. Youmzain and Daryakana always come from off the pace which wasn't end to end so didn't suit their race styles.
Ignoring Harbinger the 10f pace of the race suited CB much better than Youm and Dary. Workforce should have been closer to CB but worked too hard with the irregular pace. That is also why the pacemaker never tailed off
Harbinger was awesome anyway you look at it.
Ignoring Harbinger the 10f pace of the race suited CB much better than Youm and Dary. Workforce should have been closer to CB but worked too hard with the irregular pace. That is also why the pacemaker never tailed off
Harbinger was awesome anyway you look at it.
Ok, after an hour or two number crunching.
Harbinger has shown significant improvement with a performance that is on a par with Sea The Stars Eclipse, Zenyatta's Classic, Quality Roads Donn handicap romp. Zarkava's Arc and so on.
Cape Blanco has run close to his Irish Derby. Youmzain several length below Epsom.Frenchie not bothered with, but position suggests similar to Grand Prix. Workforce an absolute stinker.
Harbinger has shown significant improvement with a performance that is on a par with Sea The Stars Eclipse, Zenyatta's Classic, Quality Roads Donn handicap romp. Zarkava's Arc and so on.
Cape Blanco has run close to his Irish Derby. Youmzain several length below Epsom.Frenchie not bothered with, but position suggests similar to Grand Prix. Workforce an absolute stinker.
I think Harbinger deserves a special award for making so many forumites stick their fingers in their ears while chanting "La La La La La I cant hear you".
empty Joined: 14 Oct 04
Replies: 1372 27 Jul 10 07:11
Ok, after an hour or two number crunching.
Harbinger has shown significant improvement with a performance that is on a par with Sea The Stars Eclipse, Zenyatta's Classic, Quality Roads Donn handicap romp. Zarkava's Arc and so on.
Cape Blanco has run close to his Irish Derby. Youmzain several length below Epsom.Frenchie not bothered with, but position suggests similar to Grand Prix. Workforce an absolute stinker.
wf ran to dante form re cape blanco!!harbinger will never win the arc!!ascot horse, age of aq wud have beat him wih a stronger ride ffs
Replies: 1372 27 Jul 10 07:11
Ok, after an hour or two number crunching.
Harbinger has shown significant improvement with a performance that is on a par with Sea The Stars Eclipse, Zenyatta's Classic, Quality Roads Donn handicap romp. Zarkava's Arc and so on.
Cape Blanco has run close to his Irish Derby. Youmzain several length below Epsom.Frenchie not bothered with, but position suggests similar to Grand Prix. Workforce an absolute stinker.
wf ran to dante form re cape blanco!!harbinger will never win the arc!!ascot horse, age of aq wud have beat him wih a stronger ride ffs
The pacemaking role interests me.
What did Stoute plan to happen?
Using just one pacemaker who is quick but doesn't stay surely mean't the pace would be either steady early, if the setter wanted to take the field into the home straight, or fall apart if the setter went off like a bullet, went clear and then died 5 furlongs out.
What did he plan for Workforce?
What he ended up with was a steady early pace with Workforce over racing and therefore killing his chance.
Did he think Workforce would stay the trip if the pace was a grinder? He knew Harbinger would. Or did he think a mile and a quarter pace would suit Workforce as opposed to Harbinger if he settled early?
What did Stoute plan to happen?
Using just one pacemaker who is quick but doesn't stay surely mean't the pace would be either steady early, if the setter wanted to take the field into the home straight, or fall apart if the setter went off like a bullet, went clear and then died 5 furlongs out.
What did he plan for Workforce?
What he ended up with was a steady early pace with Workforce over racing and therefore killing his chance.
Did he think Workforce would stay the trip if the pace was a grinder? He knew Harbinger would. Or did he think a mile and a quarter pace would suit Workforce as opposed to Harbinger if he settled early?
wf ran to dante form re cape blanco!!harbinger will never win the arc!!ascot horse, age of aq wud have beat him wih a stronger ride ffs
If thats your opinion who am i to argue.
If thats your opinion who am i to argue.
ah your a good man empty
(sorry for sayin 'ffs')
(sorry for sayin 'ffs')
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