Horse Antepost
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
Well he won by 10 lengths which is 15 lbs.
Maybe Cape Blanco ran a bit below his best but I don't see why this was much - if any. Take Harbinger out of the race you would have been looking at Cape Blanco being a gutsy winner rated 125.
I cannot myself see how Harbinger ran much less than 138, and he may well be a 140 horse - the same as Sea The Stars.
I know Workforce did not run his race, but the others today could not all have run badly. The only logical conclusion is that we saw a horse that is very very special today.
Looking at his form, you would have to worry greatly about soft going for him though. He ran moderately last year in the St simon stakes on soft and this was after he had recovered from whatever was wrong on the Voltigeur. Then again he might have had a hard race today and it might hacve left a scar. However if he records a rating like that at Longchamp he will win the Arc no doubt.
Maybe Cape Blanco ran a bit below his best but I don't see why this was much - if any. Take Harbinger out of the race you would have been looking at Cape Blanco being a gutsy winner rated 125.
I cannot myself see how Harbinger ran much less than 138, and he may well be a 140 horse - the same as Sea The Stars.
I know Workforce did not run his race, but the others today could not all have run badly. The only logical conclusion is that we saw a horse that is very very special today.
Looking at his form, you would have to worry greatly about soft going for him though. He ran moderately last year in the St simon stakes on soft and this was after he had recovered from whatever was wrong on the Voltigeur. Then again he might have had a hard race today and it might hacve left a scar. However if he records a rating like that at Longchamp he will win the Arc no doubt.
Show More
a horse can put up a singularly exceptional performance?
Yes, but his chances of doing so diminish rapidly with the number of runs he has had.
Yes, but his chances of doing so diminish rapidly with the number of runs he has had.
Sorry Sandown, on the point that a horses chance of putting up a singularly exceptional performance diminishes rapidly with the number of the runs a horse has had, is that a statistical standpoint or a proven physical theory based on the thoroughbred's progression and ability to take racing?
Jose93
Statistical analysis based on a sample of 4031 individual performances. When looked at over a period its clear that horses progress in a cyclical fashion, reaching a maximum peak just once maybe twice in a season and very, very often that peak is not as good as previous years. Horses appear to have an annus mirablis and then usually decline.
Statistical analysis based on a sample of 4031 individual performances. When looked at over a period its clear that horses progress in a cyclical fashion, reaching a maximum peak just once maybe twice in a season and very, very often that peak is not as good as previous years. Horses appear to have an annus mirablis and then usually decline.
Mtoto looked quite ordinary until he recorded a very good time at Royal Ascot as a 4yo.
Figgis
Ah! Mtoto. 1987/8 were good years. Picked him out of the paddock at Sandown on his first run as a 4yr old at 16/1 (TF said he needed the run!) and followed him throughout after that. TF rated him at 134 at the end of 87 and at the end of 88. His 134 must have been after the Eclipse (beat Reference Point) on his 10th run. Don't know how much of an increase that was from the Brig Gerard.
The Ascot run to which you refer was as a 5yr but as I say TF didn't increase his rating although i see that RP did. He was unlucky in the Arc to say the least. It still hurts. So, yes he was a late developer.
Ah! Mtoto. 1987/8 were good years. Picked him out of the paddock at Sandown on his first run as a 4yr old at 16/1 (TF said he needed the run!) and followed him throughout after that. TF rated him at 134 at the end of 87 and at the end of 88. His 134 must have been after the Eclipse (beat Reference Point) on his 10th run. Don't know how much of an increase that was from the Brig Gerard.
The Ascot run to which you refer was as a 5yr but as I say TF didn't increase his rating although i see that RP did. He was unlucky in the Arc to say the least. It still hurts. So, yes he was a late developer.
Sandown, i think Figgis was referring to his win a couple of weeks before his win in the Eclipse as a 4yo where he beat Reference Point.
Im sure his rating would have increased quite a bit from his 3yo career though!!!
Im sure his rating would have increased quite a bit from his 3yo career though!!!
Sandown
No, I remember him winning the Prince of Wales's as a 4yo, the race was only a group 2 at the time. It was his time performance there that convinced me to travel to Sandown and back him to win his first Eclipse, a great day and I remember getting 7s, think he'd been as big as 12s earlier in the week.
No, I remember him winning the Prince of Wales's as a 4yo, the race was only a group 2 at the time. It was his time performance there that convinced me to travel to Sandown and back him to win his first Eclipse, a great day and I remember getting 7s, think he'd been as big as 12s earlier in the week.
Figgis
That year (88) was his second Eclipse(from Shady Heights). The year before he beat Reference Point.
That year (88) was his second Eclipse(from Shady Heights). The year before he beat Reference Point.
Sandown, im sure that his Prince of Wales was as a 4yo, he was sent off around 7/2 fav
Yeah, Zil, beat a horse called Amerigo Vespucci, I can't really remember anything anything about that one after.
blimey you've been doing your speed figures some time figgis. do you still work them out the same way as back then?
I remember Broken Hearted taking on mtoto once, I'm sure he won a hcap at goodwood the previous season as a 3yo. the extel hcap I think it was called back then
I remember Broken Hearted taking on mtoto once, I'm sure he won a hcap at goodwood the previous season as a 3yo. the extel hcap I think it was called back then
That was named the "Luca Cumani Benefit" race around that time Stevie
Figgis/Zilzal
OK, confusion over. He ran in the 87 POW (as a 4yr) (bt Amerigo Vespucci) after the Brig Gerard and before the Eclipse that year when he beat Reference Point.
OK, confusion over. He ran in the 87 POW (as a 4yr) (bt Amerigo Vespucci) after the Brig Gerard and before the Eclipse that year when he beat Reference Point.
Nah Stevie, wasn't doing my own back then, except for a few amateurish attempts. I'd only started following racing in mid '85 so didn't know what I was doing but quickly realised times could be important. I mainly stuck to the better class racing but looking back I was a bit gung ho in my use of them, so it's surprising I had quite a good run of success (it didn't last). I think the prices were a lot better in those days though so that helped.
ah I see. I wonder if it would have been easier to compile figures back then. I think there were less rail movements and less watering.
Anyway I was going to ask something about Cape Blanco and in terms of speed figures for his run in the Irish derby compared to the KG.
I was having a quick look at the time of his Irish Derby and comparing it with Bay Willow who won the subsequent hcap and also comparing his time in the KG with that of Yashrid in the closing race. I made him running around 9/10 lbs slower?
Anyway I was going to ask something about Cape Blanco and in terms of speed figures for his run in the Irish derby compared to the KG.
I was having a quick look at the time of his Irish Derby and comparing it with Bay Willow who won the subsequent hcap and also comparing his time in the KG with that of Yashrid in the closing race. I made him running around 9/10 lbs slower?
I was going to ask some of you time lads a question.
I lived abroad for a while, watching replays of a few races on youtube during that time nowdays, i see lines transposed across the course(Haafhd and George Washingtons guineas as a example) at intervals, who did these and why was it discontinued
I lived abroad for a while, watching replays of a few races on youtube during that time nowdays, i see lines transposed across the course(Haafhd and George Washingtons guineas as a example) at intervals, who did these and why was it discontinued
zilzal1
Ch 4 overlayed them, then stopped.Think BBC may have done so. You still find that the French do it. Got to be careful 'cause its not always accurate but it did/does help.
Ch 4 overlayed them, then stopped.Think BBC may have done so. You still find that the French do it. Got to be careful 'cause its not always accurate but it did/does help.
Cheers Sandown, did they give a reason for doing it as i could only have seen it adding interest to the sport
Stevie, generally I don't like to be over confident about figures from the Curragh, you'll know why if you regularly do your own for there. I have Cape Blanco's Irish Derby win as his best figure, 4lbs higher than his York win. I have his KG run a huge 18lbs worse than the Irish Derby (for me, he had a hard race at the Curragh), which might sound surprising but that still leaves Harbinger on a high figure.
zilzal
I think it coincided with Brough Scott's campaign to advance sectional timing which led to Newmarket installing an expensive split time system since abandoned. No-one knew then how to use the fractions - they still don't.
I think it coincided with Brough Scott's campaign to advance sectional timing which led to Newmarket installing an expensive split time system since abandoned. No-one knew then how to use the fractions - they still don't.
Sorry Stevie, should've said 14lbs below his Irish Derby win.
I think there is more disagreement generally over time ratings (compared to collateral ratings)even when produced by experienced people such as Figgis and me. For example, I rate CB's Curragh win below his York win, the complete reverse, which is why I think he is a 10f horse. That and the fact that at the Curragh over 12f he didn't show evidence of a fast finish whereas as York he did.The problem lies with standards used and going allowances set.
Figgis.
What rating did you give to Bay Willow if you gave CB a high rating?
Figgis.
What rating did you give to Bay Willow if you gave CB a high rating?
Why do you think Harbinger has reached his peak ? He may improve again.
Sandown
Do you always give precedent to a horse if he/she is bigger than everything else in the field, ie your explanation of why you backed Bering over Dancing Brave, this can be and often is a very foolish thing to do imo.If your figures work for you do you change them when you see the horses in the flesh before the race in the parade ring judged on the size ? ie give them a few extra lbs cos they are bigger ?
Sandown
Do you always give precedent to a horse if he/she is bigger than everything else in the field, ie your explanation of why you backed Bering over Dancing Brave, this can be and often is a very foolish thing to do imo.If your figures work for you do you change them when you see the horses in the flesh before the race in the parade ring judged on the size ? ie give them a few extra lbs cos they are bigger ?
The problem surely lies in part with inaccurate race distances and different patches of ground everywhere?
Sandown, mine are weight adjusted figures, so I have Bay Willow around 20lbs lower. Interesting to see Invincible Ash win over at Tipperary just now, as I gave her a high figure on the same card, different allowance for that part of the course though so I can't claim that definitely endorses CBs figure.
The problem surely lies in part with inaccurate race distances and different patches of ground everywhere?
Exactly. Distances on UK race courses are extremely inaccurate. Stalls, rails and furlong poles are moved around willy-nilly.
unlucky stu
Bigger horses can carry weight better. They used to handicap horses according to size. Did you know that? Generally speaking, I do subscribe to the theory that a good big un will beat a good little un but the figures come first. On the other hand, if its a tight track or one with difficult characteristics then i might downgrade a bigger horse. On a track with a stiff uphill finish where strength is a factor then I might uprgade the chances.Foolishness doesn't come in to it.There is a reason for everything. As for Harbinger, I don't know but based on what he has just done I suspect notand would bet against him improving further in the near future.
Bigger horses can carry weight better. They used to handicap horses according to size. Did you know that? Generally speaking, I do subscribe to the theory that a good big un will beat a good little un but the figures come first. On the other hand, if its a tight track or one with difficult characteristics then i might downgrade a bigger horse. On a track with a stiff uphill finish where strength is a factor then I might uprgade the chances.Foolishness doesn't come in to it.There is a reason for everything. As for Harbinger, I don't know but based on what he has just done I suspect notand would bet against him improving further in the near future.
Figgis
I too have BW 20lbs below CB on the day but how much did you increase his rating (he ran off 87) . Without improvement you would give CB no more than 107
I too have BW 20lbs below CB on the day but how much did you increase his rating (he ran off 87) . Without improvement you would give CB no more than 107
Sandown
I'd rather back a well balanced horse with good conformation, than back a big horse that may make a chaser someday and carry weight over 3 miles plus
I'd rather back a well balanced horse with good conformation, than back a big horse that may make a chaser someday and carry weight over 3 miles plus
unlucky stu
You've defined your own terms to make it work for you. How about a well balanced big horse with good conformation (Nijinsky, nashwan) versus a small horse thats light in substance? Easy to make the choice isn't it when you define the terms.
You've defined your own terms to make it work for you. How about a well balanced big horse with good conformation (Nijinsky, nashwan) versus a small horse thats light in substance? Easy to make the choice isn't it when you define the terms.
Bering was a fine looking beast, the sire of Penang Pearl, the Dam of Harbinger
Figgis, heres that Prince Of Wales
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B7vl0jx0L2k&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B7vl0jx0L2k&feature=related
Sandown
I prefer to use a lower scale than the official one. I had BW's best figure 57, achieved at Newbury, he then ran a bit lower than that at Leicester but was unextended. He then was involved in a falsely run race at Ascot so couldn't produce his best. At the Curragh I only have him 1lb higher than Newbury on 58, I have Cape Blanco on 80. I'm not really comfortable with trying to make adjustments to correspond with the official scale, as I often don't agree with those figures.
For instance, while I believe STS was the best horse I've seen in my lifetime, when factoring in ability, versatility and robustness, I don't believe the difference in the ability of the best horses on their day is as big as some of the official/Timeform ratings say. As highly as I regard STS I only rated him 2lbs better than Authorized when he won the Derby.
I prefer to use a lower scale than the official one. I had BW's best figure 57, achieved at Newbury, he then ran a bit lower than that at Leicester but was unextended. He then was involved in a falsely run race at Ascot so couldn't produce his best. At the Curragh I only have him 1lb higher than Newbury on 58, I have Cape Blanco on 80. I'm not really comfortable with trying to make adjustments to correspond with the official scale, as I often don't agree with those figures.
For instance, while I believe STS was the best horse I've seen in my lifetime, when factoring in ability, versatility and robustness, I don't believe the difference in the ability of the best horses on their day is as big as some of the official/Timeform ratings say. As highly as I regard STS I only rated him 2lbs better than Authorized when he won the Derby.
you can't just take the American theories (developed for dirt) and apply them to European turf racing
Could you tell me theories are you a forre refering to here.
Could you tell me theories are you a forre refering to here.
I have Cape Blanco's Irish Derby win as his best figure, 4lbs higher than his York win. i]
[i] I rate CB's Curragh win below his York win, the complete reverse, which is why I think he is a 10f horse
This what makes racing the GREATEST GAME imho.
Such a shame the lunatics are in charge of the asylum.
[i] I rate CB's Curragh win below his York win, the complete reverse, which is why I think he is a 10f horse
This what makes racing the GREATEST GAME imho.
Such a shame the lunatics are in charge of the asylum.
Looks like we will never get to see it proved one way or the other 
Ensuring that the debate will rage forever..............
empty Joined: 14 Oct 04
Replies: 1800 07 Aug 10 05:26
you can't just take the American theories (developed for dirt) and apply them to European turf racing
Well some books like Pizzolla's have too many wrongs to go into here, but taking Brohamer/Mahl/Taulbot's theory that when faced with horses with equal final times, the one with the best early fractions is more likely to win, anybody using that over here isn't going to get very far.
Could you tell me theories are you a forre refering to here
Replies: 1800 07 Aug 10 05:26
you can't just take the American theories (developed for dirt) and apply them to European turf racing
Well some books like Pizzolla's have too many wrongs to go into here, but taking Brohamer/Mahl/Taulbot's theory that when faced with horses with equal final times, the one with the best early fractions is more likely to win, anybody using that over here isn't going to get very far.
Could you tell me theories are you a forre refering to here
Harbinger has suffered a career threatening injury on the gallops this morning, see RP article, so maybe we will never know now how good he could have been 
I use plenty of american ideas on european turf with success.
....
very sad news on harbinger....
....
very sad news on harbinger....
I've had dosh on Harbinger on the antepost market for the arc. Is that dead money or will it get refunded?
Terrible shame.
Guess he hould have been having a rest as an Arc prep instead of aiming at the Juddmonte
Guess he hould have been having a rest as an Arc prep instead of aiming at the Juddmonte
the one with the best early fractions is more likely to win, anybody using that over here isn't going to get very far.
Is this formed from experienceing of us the Match Up or just a wild guess??
Is this formed from experienceing of us the Match Up or just a wild guess??
Jebus, check before posting empty
Is this from experience of using the Match Up or a wild guess??
Is this from experience of using the Match Up or a wild guess??
Sad news No true racing fan likes to win (or lose) money this way.These debates are what make racing such an interesting sport to follow and why we must acknowledge that the element of chance in the game is large and that reason can only take us so far. The glorious uncertainty indeed.
Agree Sandown, sometimes we forget just how fragile these thoroughbreds are that give us so much pleasure and heartbreak.
empty Joined: 14 Oct 04
Replies: 1807 07 Aug 10 20:41
Jebus, check before posting empty
Is this from experience of using the Match Up or a wild guess??
Based on some earlier use of sectionals here and just plain logic, concerning the difference between the way most dirt races are run compared to most grass/synthetic races.
Replies: 1807 07 Aug 10 20:41
Jebus, check before posting empty
Is this from experience of using the Match Up or a wild guess??
Based on some earlier use of sectionals here and just plain logic, concerning the difference between the way most dirt races are run compared to most grass/synthetic races.
THe way most Dirt races are run.
They are run the way the race dynamics dictate just like on turf/ AW.
If you think you can not use the Match Up on Turf/AW, well, take it from me, your wrong.
They are run the way the race dynamics dictate just like on turf/ AW.
If you think you can not use the Match Up on Turf/AW, well, take it from me, your wrong.
So you believe most horses run the same fractions each time on grass/turf?
Where did i say that??
The RACE is RACE or PACE makes the RACE
As you know to well horses perform best under certain conditions, this applies to the PACE of the RACE too.
The RACE is RACE or PACE makes the RACE
As you know to well horses perform best under certain conditions, this applies to the PACE of the RACE too.
I was referring to the theory that early fractions are the most important, I think even most Americans would agree that it doesn't apply to grass/synthetic. In fact most of them seem to have trouble even applying final time figures to grass with any confidence.
Figgis
I'm not writing these posts from no r little experience of using these Methods .If the method had proven useless. I would not be posting about it.
J Bradshaw
"Most people don't understand what a horse race is"
He was correct and i was once one of those people.
I'm not writing these posts from no r little experience of using these Methods .If the method had proven useless. I would not be posting about it.
J Bradshaw
"Most people don't understand what a horse race is"
He was correct and i was once one of those people.
All these theories may be great, but in practice do they help you to win money long term by predicting the outcome of a FUTURE race?
Even Simon Rowlands, whose work on sectionals I find the most interesting, has stated he's read hardly anything about the subject that was of any real use, but if it works for you...
Steak
As stated i would not be posting this stuff if it were of no use.
As stated i would not be posting this stuff if it were of no use.
Figgis
I am a fan of Simon and his work, in fact he was the one who told me about Brohamers book
He is what Doc Sartin woul call "adjustment happy"( nothing wrong with that btw), but i would not knock something until you tested it.
I am a fan of Simon and his work, in fact he was the one who told me about Brohamers book
He is what Doc Sartin woul call "adjustment happy"( nothing wrong with that btw), but i would not knock something until you tested it.
I would like nothing better than to ushae what i've learnt on UK racing. I know there are US bettors who would like to apply those same or similar methods to UK racing too, as the like the big fields we have, but we have the lunatics in charge of our asylum.
I only knock those ideas that are either illogical or ill conceived, which I find much of the thinking behind a lot of American ideas, with a few notable exceptions.
Look guys, from your posts i know your not thicko's, but i do think need to understand.
What happens in Fraction 1 has an effect on what happens in Fr2 and what happens in Fr1 and Fr2 has a MAJOR impact on what happens in Fr3 (the result of the race).
What happens in Fraction 1 has an effect on what happens in Fr2 and what happens in Fr1 and Fr2 has a MAJOR impact on what happens in Fr3 (the result of the race).
Yes but it's the predictability of those factors that I would question.
How can you knock something you've had no or little experience of using Figgis??
OK, i can see i'm wasting my time and energy.
All the best.
All the best.
405% ROI from one race earlier this week, winner of Test found yesterday, bank double this week and Figgis tells me method i'm using is poor
You could not make this stuff up
You could not make this stuff up
Just so you know i'm not talking out of my ass
empty
Joined: 14 Oct 04
Replies: 1818 07 Aug 10 22:09
Gud evenin US racing fans
Sara 7
3, 8 with a preference for former, 3/8 Box
All the best to those with a blinkers on.
empty
Joined: 14 Oct 04
Replies: 1818 07 Aug 10 22:09
Gud evenin US racing fans
Sara 7
3, 8 with a preference for former, 3/8 Box
All the best to those with a blinkers on.
So you do your own sectionals and use the Sartin methodology to choose your bets?
My understandis we are talking about a methodology and your saying it's poor and don't work
I'm telling you it does work, i'm also telling you it works on Dirt, Turf and Synthetic
Now, whether it would work on European i can not say as i've not tried due to no Fraction/ Beaten Length info being avaliable.
I'm telling you it does work, i'm also telling you it works on Dirt, Turf and Synthetic
Now, whether it would work on European i can not say as i've not tried due to no Fraction/ Beaten Length info being avaliable.
i can not see any reason why it would not work on Euro racing btw.
The discussion was about American ideas transferring well to Europe. I never said they don't work in the US. Apparently Beyer figures work well in the US (or they used to), that doesn't mean that all of the thinking behind his methods is sound and can't be improved upon.
As stated Figgis i can not see why these ideas would not work on Euro racing.
Impression your giving is they won't and that seems to be coming from little or no experience of using them
As stated, you could not make this stuff up
Impression your giving is they won't and that seems to be coming from little or no experience of using them
As stated, you could not make this stuff up
So you do your own sectionals and use the Sartin methodology to choose your bets?
No US racing provides them, i use the essence of the Sartin Methodology to find TRUE contenders in races like the Saratoga R7
No US racing provides them, i use the essence of the Sartin Methodology to find TRUE contenders in races like the Saratoga R7
Ok, Empty, explain to me how early fractions being the most important has any relevance whatsoever to Europe?
Fractions will be important in Europe when the distances are measured properly and the timings accurate.
A_T, generally the problem with distances isn't as bad as you might think, again there are exceptions, a lot of courses have begun to state when and where rails are moved.
AT
You use what is avaliable.
about distances exisit in US racing, the rail are moved on turf courses
These things do not stop you hitting 10, 20 30 dollar horses.
You use what is avaliable.
about distances exisit in US racing, the rail are moved on turf courses
These things do not stop you hitting 10, 20 30 dollar horses.
Although more accurate info helps the process you do not need precise info to estimate probability of a horse winning or placing as anyone betting knows
Post Your Reply
Please login to post a reply.
Wonder
Instance ID: 13539