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cryoftruth
24 Jul 10 16:11
Joined:
Date Joined: 22 Mar 04
| Topic/replies: 6,808 | Blogger: cryoftruth's blog
Well he won by 10 lengths which is 15 lbs.

Maybe Cape Blanco ran a bit below his best but I don't see why this was much - if any. Take Harbinger out of the race you would have been looking at Cape Blanco being a gutsy winner rated 125.

I cannot myself see how Harbinger ran much less than 138, and he may well be a 140 horse - the same as Sea The Stars.

I know Workforce did not run his race, but the others today could not all have run badly. The only logical conclusion is that we saw a horse that is very very special today.

Looking at his form, you would have to worry greatly about soft going for him though. He ran moderately last year in the St simon stakes on soft and this was after he had recovered from whatever was wrong on the Voltigeur. Then again he might have had a hard race today and it might hacve left a scar. However if he records a rating like that at Longchamp he will win the Arc no doubt.
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Report Sandown August 6, 2010 3:19 PM BST
a horse can put up a singularly exceptional performance?

Yes, but his chances of doing so diminish rapidly with the number of runs he has had.
Report JOSE93 August 6, 2010 3:25 PM BST
Sorry Sandown, on the point that a horses chance of putting up a singularly exceptional performance diminishes rapidly with the number of the runs a horse has had, is that a statistical standpoint or a proven physical theory based on the thoroughbred's progression and ability to take racing?
Report Sandown August 6, 2010 3:31 PM BST
Jose93

Statistical analysis based on a sample of 4031 individual performances. When looked at over a period its clear that horses progress in a cyclical fashion, reaching a maximum peak just once maybe twice in a season and very, very often that peak is not as good as previous years. Horses appear to have an annus mirablis and then usually decline.
Report Figgis August 6, 2010 3:42 PM BST
Mtoto looked quite ordinary until he recorded a very good time at Royal Ascot as a 4yo.
Report Sandown August 6, 2010 4:07 PM BST
Figgis

Ah! Mtoto. 1987/8 were good years. Picked him out of the paddock at Sandown on his first run as a 4yr old at 16/1 (TF said he needed the run!) and followed him throughout after that. TF rated him at 134 at the end of 87 and at the end of 88. His 134 must have been after the Eclipse (beat Reference Point) on his 10th run. Don't know how much of an increase that was from the Brig Gerard.
The Ascot run to which you refer was as a 5yr but as I say TF didn't increase his rating although i see that RP did. He was unlucky in the Arc to say the least. It still hurts. So, yes he was a late developer.
Report zilzal1 August 6, 2010 4:18 PM BST
Sandown, i think Figgis was referring to his win a couple of weeks before his win in the Eclipse as a 4yo where he beat Reference Point.
Im sure his rating would have increased quite a bit from his 3yo career though!!!
Report Figgis August 6, 2010 4:19 PM BST
Sandown
No, I remember him winning the Prince of Wales's as a 4yo, the race was only a group 2 at the time. It was his time performance there that convinced me to travel to Sandown and back him to win his first Eclipse, a great day and I remember getting 7s, think he'd been as big as 12s earlier in the week.
Report Figgis August 6, 2010 4:24 PM BST
Yeah, Zil, that's the one.
Report Sandown August 6, 2010 4:32 PM BST
Figgis

That year (88) was his second Eclipse(from Shady Heights). The year before he beat Reference Point.
Report Figgis August 6, 2010 4:35 PM BST
Yeah I'm talking about his '87 POW win.
Report zilzal1 August 6, 2010 4:35 PM BST
Sandown, im sure that his Prince of Wales was as a 4yo, he was sent off around 7/2 fav
Report Figgis August 6, 2010 4:38 PM BST
Yeah, Zil, beat a horse called Amerigo Vespucci, I can't really remember anything anything about that one after.
Report Stevie Gerrard August 6, 2010 4:46 PM BST
blimey you've been doing your speed figures some time figgis. do you still work them out the same way as back then?
I remember Broken Hearted taking on mtoto once, I'm sure he won a hcap at goodwood the previous season as a 3yo. the extel hcap I think it was called back then
Report zilzal1 August 6, 2010 4:48 PM BST
That was named the "Luca Cumani Benefit" race around that time Stevie
Report Sandown August 6, 2010 4:52 PM BST
Figgis/Zilzal

OK, confusion over. He ran in the 87 POW (as a 4yr) (bt Amerigo Vespucci) after the Brig Gerard and before the Eclipse that year when he beat Reference Point.
Report Figgis August 6, 2010 4:57 PM BST
Nah Stevie, wasn't doing my own back then, except for a few amateurish attempts. I'd only started following racing in mid '85 so didn't know what I was doing but quickly realised times could be important. I mainly stuck to the better class racing but looking back I was a bit gung ho in my use of them, so it's surprising I had quite a good run of success (it didn't last). I think the prices were a lot better in those days though so that helped.
Report Stevie Gerrard August 6, 2010 5:10 PM BST
ah I see. I wonder if it would have been easier to compile figures back then. I think there were less rail movements and less watering.

Anyway I was going to ask something about Cape Blanco and in terms of speed figures for his run in the Irish derby compared to the KG.

I was having a quick look at the time of his Irish Derby and comparing it with Bay Willow who won the subsequent hcap and also comparing his time in the KG with that of Yashrid in the closing race. I made him running around 9/10 lbs slower?
Report zilzal1 August 6, 2010 5:18 PM BST
I was going to ask some of you time lads a question.

I lived abroad for a while, watching replays of a few races on youtube during that time nowdays, i see lines transposed across the course(Haafhd and George Washingtons guineas as a example) at intervals, who did these and why was it discontinued
Report Sandown August 6, 2010 5:25 PM BST
zilzal1

Ch 4 overlayed them, then stopped.Think BBC may have done so. You still find that the French do it. Got to be careful 'cause its not always accurate but it did/does help.
Report Sandown August 6, 2010 5:26 PM BST
French do every 100 metres over last 300m and final 50m
Report zilzal1 August 6, 2010 5:28 PM BST
Cheers Sandown, did they give a reason for doing it as i could only have seen it adding interest to the sport
Report Figgis August 6, 2010 5:32 PM BST
Stevie, generally I don't like to be over confident about figures from the Curragh, you'll know why if you regularly do your own for there. I have Cape Blanco's Irish Derby win as his best figure, 4lbs higher than his York win. I have his KG run a huge 18lbs worse than the Irish Derby (for me, he had a hard race at the Curragh), which might sound surprising but that still leaves Harbinger on a high figure.
Report Stevie Gerrard August 6, 2010 5:34 PM BST
thanks figgis. interesting
Report Sandown August 6, 2010 5:35 PM BST
zilzal

I think it coincided with Brough Scott's campaign to advance sectional timing which led to Newmarket installing an expensive split time  system since abandoned. No-one knew then how to use the fractions - they still don't.
Report zilzal1 August 6, 2010 5:36 PM BST
Thanks Sandown,i missed quite a bit whilst i was away
Report Figgis August 6, 2010 5:45 PM BST
Sorry Stevie, should've said 14lbs below his Irish Derby win.
Report Sandown August 6, 2010 6:12 PM BST
I think there is more disagreement generally over time ratings (compared to collateral ratings)even when produced by experienced people such as Figgis and me. For example, I rate CB's Curragh win below his York win, the complete reverse, which is why I think he is a 10f horse. That and the fact that at the Curragh over 12f he didn't show evidence of a fast finish whereas as York he did.The problem lies with standards used and going allowances set.

Figgis.
What rating did you give to Bay Willow if you gave CB a high rating?
Report unluckyStu August 6, 2010 6:29 PM BST
Why do you think Harbinger has reached his peak ? He may improve again.

Sandown

Do you always give precedent to a horse if he/she is bigger than everything else in the field, ie  your explanation of why you backed Bering over Dancing Brave, this can be and often is a very foolish thing to do imo.If your figures work for you do you change them when you see the horses in the flesh before the race in the parade ring judged on the size ? ie give them a few extra lbs cos they are bigger ?
Report JOSE93 August 6, 2010 6:30 PM BST
The problem surely lies in part with inaccurate race distances and different patches of ground everywhere?
Report Figgis August 6, 2010 6:34 PM BST
Sandown, mine are weight adjusted figures, so I have Bay Willow around 20lbs lower. Interesting to see Invincible Ash win over at Tipperary just now, as I gave her a high figure on the same card, different allowance for that part of the course though so I can't claim that definitely endorses CBs figure.
Report A_T August 6, 2010 6:46 PM BST

The problem surely lies in part with inaccurate race distances and different patches of ground everywhere?


Exactly. Distances on UK race courses are extremely inaccurate. Stalls, rails and furlong poles are moved around willy-nilly.

Report Sandown August 6, 2010 6:47 PM BST
unlucky stu

Bigger horses can carry weight better. They used to handicap horses according to size. Did you know that? Generally speaking, I do subscribe to the theory that a good big un will beat a good little un but the figures come first. On the other hand, if its a tight track or one with difficult characteristics then i might downgrade a bigger horse. On a track with a stiff uphill finish where strength is a factor then I might uprgade the chances.Foolishness doesn't come in to it.There is a reason for everything. As for Harbinger, I don't know but based on what he has just done I suspect notand would bet against him improving further in the near future.
Report Sandown August 6, 2010 6:50 PM BST
Figgis

I too have BW 20lbs below CB on the day but how much did you increase his rating (he ran off 87) . Without improvement you would give CB no more than 107
Report unluckyStu August 6, 2010 6:58 PM BST
Sandown

I'd rather back a well balanced horse with good conformation, than back a big horse that may make a chaser someday and carry weight over 3 miles plusLaugh
Report Sandown August 6, 2010 7:04 PM BST
unlucky stu

You've defined your own terms to make it work for you. How about a well balanced big horse with good conformation (Nijinsky, nashwan) versus a small horse thats light in substance? Easy to make the choice isn't it when you define the terms.
Report unluckyStu August 6, 2010 7:06 PM BST
Dancing Brave wasn't light in substance !!
Report unluckyStu August 6, 2010 7:07 PM BST
Compared to Bering that is Happy
Report unluckyStu August 6, 2010 7:15 PM BST
Bering was a fine looking beast, the sire of Penang Pearl, the Dam of Harbinger
Report zilzal1 August 6, 2010 7:16 PM BST
Figgis, heres that Prince Of Wales

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B7vl0jx0L2k&feature=related
Report Figgis August 6, 2010 7:28 PM BST
Sandown

I prefer to use a lower scale than the official one. I had BW's best figure 57, achieved at Newbury, he then ran a bit lower than that at Leicester but was unextended. He then was involved in a falsely run race at Ascot so couldn't produce his best. At the Curragh I only have him 1lb higher than Newbury on 58, I have Cape Blanco on 80. I'm not really comfortable with trying to make adjustments to correspond with the official scale, as I often don't agree with those figures.
For instance, while I believe STS was the best horse I've seen in my lifetime, when factoring in ability, versatility and robustness, I don't believe the difference in the ability of the best horses on their day is as big as some of the official/Timeform ratings say. As highly as I regard STS I only rated him 2lbs better than Authorized when he won the Derby.
Report Figgis August 6, 2010 7:32 PM BST
I should've said STS the best 3yo I've seen.
Report Figgis August 6, 2010 7:35 PM BST
Thanks Zil, not seen that in ages.
Report empty August 7, 2010 5:26 AM BST
you can't just take the American theories (developed for dirt) and apply them to European turf racing



Could you tell me  theories are you a forre refering to here.
Report empty August 7, 2010 5:27 AM BST
jebus,


*which theories you are refering to.
Report empty August 7, 2010 6:17 AM BST
I have Cape Blanco's Irish Derby win as his best figure, 4lbs higher than his York win. i]

[i] I rate CB's Curragh win below his York win, the complete reverse, which is why I think he is a 10f horse



This what makes racing the GREATEST GAME imho.




Such a shame the lunatics are in charge of the asylum.
Report Stake & Chips August 7, 2010 10:53 AM BST
Looks like we will never get to see it proved one way or the other Cry
Report zilzal1 August 7, 2010 11:27 AM BST
Ensuring that the debate will rage forever..............
Report JOSE93 August 7, 2010 11:39 AM BST
Sad Just hope he's ok.
Report Figgis August 7, 2010 11:44 AM BST
empty Joined: 14 Oct 04
Replies: 1800 07 Aug 10 05:26   


you can't just take the American theories (developed for dirt) and apply them to European turf racing


Well some books like Pizzolla's have too many wrongs to go into here, but taking Brohamer/Mahl/Taulbot's theory that when faced with horses with equal final times, the one with the best early fractions is more likely to win, anybody using that over here isn't going to get very far.



Could you tell me  theories are you a forre refering to here
Report sintonian August 7, 2010 11:52 AM BST
CryCry
Report Ibrahima Sonko August 7, 2010 12:05 PM BST
Sadly we will never know. Sad
Report Figgis August 7, 2010 12:15 PM BST
That is sad news.
Report unluckyStu August 7, 2010 1:15 PM BST
Harbinger has suffered a career threatening injury on the gallops this morning, see RP article, so maybe we will never know now how good he could have been Sad
Report A_T August 7, 2010 1:30 PM BST
Blimey what bad news :(
Report EastLower Gooner August 7, 2010 1:40 PM BST
I use plenty of american ideas on european turf with success.

....

very sad news on harbinger....
Report biggie77 August 7, 2010 4:26 PM BST
[:(]
Report Ratmouth August 7, 2010 5:23 PM BST
I've had dosh on Harbinger on the antepost market for the arc. Is that dead money or will it get refunded?
Report Stake & Chips August 7, 2010 5:36 PM BST
Sad
Report unclepuncle August 7, 2010 8:05 PM BST
Terrible shame.

Guess he hould have been having a rest as an Arc prep instead of aiming at the Juddmonte
Report empty August 7, 2010 8:40 PM BST
the one with the best early fractions is more likely to win, anybody using that over here isn't going to get very far.




Is this formed from experienceing of us the Match Up or just a wild guess??
Report empty August 7, 2010 8:41 PM BST
Jebus, check before posting empty


Is this from experience of using the Match Up or a wild guess??
Report Sandown August 8, 2010 8:23 AM BST
Sad news  No true racing fan likes to win (or lose) money this way.These debates are what make racing such an interesting sport to follow and why we must acknowledge that the element of chance in the game is large and that reason can only take us so far. The glorious uncertainty indeed.
Report unluckyStu August 8, 2010 9:17 AM BST
Agree Sandown, sometimes we forget just how fragile these thoroughbreds are that give us so much pleasure and heartbreak.
Report Figgis August 8, 2010 11:12 AM BST
empty Joined: 14 Oct 04
Replies: 1807 07 Aug 10 20:41   


Jebus, check before posting empty


Is this from experience of using the Match Up or a wild guess??



Based on some earlier use of sectionals here and just plain logic, concerning the difference between the way most dirt races are run compared to most grass/synthetic races.
Report empty August 8, 2010 11:58 AM BST
THe way most Dirt races are run.


They are run the way the race dynamics dictate just like on turf/ AW.


If you think you can not use the Match Up on Turf/AW, well, take it from me, your wrong.
Report Figgis August 8, 2010 12:02 PM BST
So you believe most horses run the same fractions each time on grass/turf?
Report Figgis August 8, 2010 12:02 PM BST
aw/turf
Report empty August 8, 2010 12:08 PM BST
Where did i say that??


The RACE is RACE or PACE makes the RACE



As you know to well horses perform best under certain conditions, this applies to the PACE of the RACE too.
Report Figgis August 8, 2010 12:13 PM BST
I was referring to the theory that early fractions are the most important, I think even most Americans would agree that it doesn't apply to grass/synthetic. In fact most of them seem to have trouble even applying final time figures to grass with any confidence.
Report empty August 8, 2010 12:16 PM BST
Figgis


I'm not writing these posts from no r little experience of using these Methods .If the method had proven  useless. I would not be posting about it.


J Bradshaw

"Most people don't understand what a horse race is"


He was correct and i was once one of those people.
Report Stake & Chips August 8, 2010 12:18 PM BST
All these theories may be great, but in practice do they help you to win money long term by predicting the outcome of a FUTURE race?
Report Figgis August 8, 2010 12:19 PM BST
Even Simon Rowlands, whose work on sectionals I find the most interesting, has stated he's read hardly anything about the subject that was of any real use, but if it works for you...
Report empty August 8, 2010 12:25 PM BST
Steak


As stated i would not be posting this stuff if it were of no use.
Report empty August 8, 2010 12:26 PM BST
.. to you and other bettors.
Report empty August 8, 2010 12:33 PM BST
Figgis

I am a fan of Simon and his work, in fact he was the one who told me about Brohamers book


He is what Doc Sartin woul call "adjustment happy"( nothing wrong with that btw), but i would not  knock something until you tested it.
Report empty August 8, 2010 12:39 PM BST
I would like nothing better than to ushae what i've learnt on UK racing. I know there are US bettors who would like to apply those same or similar methods to UK racing too, as the like the big fields we have, but we have the lunatics in charge of our asylum.
Report Figgis August 8, 2010 12:44 PM BST
I only knock those ideas that are either illogical or ill conceived, which I find much of the thinking behind a lot of American ideas, with a few notable exceptions.
Report empty August 8, 2010 12:52 PM BST
Look guys, from your posts i know your not thicko's, but i do think need to understand.

What happens in Fraction 1 has an effect on what happens in Fr2 and what happens in Fr1 and Fr2 has a MAJOR impact on what happens  in Fr3 (the result of the race).
Report Figgis August 8, 2010 12:57 PM BST
Yes but it's the predictability of those factors that I would question.
Report empty August 8, 2010 12:59 PM BST
How can you knock something you've had no or little experience of using Figgis??
Report Figgis August 8, 2010 1:01 PM BST
Because the thinking behind it is poor.
Report empty August 8, 2010 1:02 PM BST
OK, i can see i'm wasting my time and energy.


All the best.
Report empty August 8, 2010 1:08 PM BST
405% ROI from one race earlier this week, winner of Test found yesterday, bank double this week and  Figgis tells me method i'm using is poor




You could not make this stuff up
Report empty August 8, 2010 1:13 PM BST
Just so you know i'm not talking out  of my ass


empty
Joined: 14 Oct 04
Replies: 1818 07 Aug 10 22:09   
Gud evenin US racing fans

Sara 7

3, 8 with a preference for former, 3/8 Box




All the best to those with a blinkers on.
Report Figgis August 8, 2010 1:14 PM BST
So you do your own sectionals and use the Sartin methodology to choose your bets?
Report Figgis August 8, 2010 1:16 PM BST
We were talking about European racing.
Report empty August 8, 2010 1:21 PM BST
My understandis we are talking about a methodology and your saying it's poor and don't work


I'm telling you it does work, i'm also telling you it works on Dirt, Turf and Synthetic

Now, whether it would work on European i can not say as i've not tried due to no Fraction/ Beaten Length info being avaliable.
Report empty August 8, 2010 1:22 PM BST
i can not see any reason why it would not work on Euro racing btw.
Report Figgis August 8, 2010 1:26 PM BST
The discussion was about American ideas transferring well to Europe. I never said they don't work in the US. Apparently Beyer figures work well in the US (or they used to), that doesn't mean that all of the thinking behind his methods is sound and can't be improved upon.
Report empty August 8, 2010 1:38 PM BST
As stated Figgis i can not see why these ideas would not work on Euro racing.


Impression your giving is they won't and that seems to be coming from little or no experience of using them


As stated, you could not make this stuff up
Report empty August 8, 2010 1:41 PM BST
So you do your own sectionals and use the Sartin methodology to choose your bets?


No US racing provides them, i use the essence of the Sartin Methodology to find TRUE contenders in races like the Saratoga R7
Report Figgis August 8, 2010 1:42 PM BST
Ok, Empty, explain to me how early fractions being the most important has any relevance whatsoever to Europe?
Report A_T August 8, 2010 1:44 PM BST
Fractions will be important in Europe when the distances are measured properly and the timings accurate.
Report empty August 8, 2010 1:45 PM BST
I did that earlier i think.
Report empty August 8, 2010 1:46 PM BST
The race does not start at 3f marker Figgis.
Report Figgis August 8, 2010 1:47 PM BST
A_T, generally the problem with distances isn't as bad as you might think, again there are exceptions, a lot of courses have begun to state when and where rails are moved.
Report empty August 8, 2010 1:47 PM BST
The Match Up does not start at  3f marker either Figgis
Report empty August 8, 2010 1:53 PM BST
AT


You use what is avaliable.


about distances exisit in US racing, the rail are moved on  turf courses


These things do not stop you hitting 10, 20 30 dollar horses.
Report empty August 8, 2010 2:06 PM BST
Although more accurate info helps the process you do not need precise info to estimate probability of a horse winning or placing as anyone betting knows
Report empty August 8, 2010 2:09 PM BST
The ratings awarded to horses are made from info avaliable, this info is not precise, so what you get is a "ballpark" fig

Don't stop some kicking ass does it.
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