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teflontom
24 Jul 10 16:36
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Date Joined: 24 Oct 06
| Topic/replies: 205 | Blogger: teflontom's blog
Overhyped overrated.Derby form????
Pause Switch to Standard View Workforce will not win another race
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Report ilikewavingatbuses July 24, 2010 9:47 PM BST
i think he needs a run b4 the arc to put him spot on myself!!if not it'll be just like last yr imo!!had no excuses and look where he ended up!!i think farnce are winning it myself!!

at current prices PLANTEUR looks a good bet!!has kept this form well!!
Report the lay preacher July 24, 2010 9:52 PM BST
last year was a terrible run from fame and glory and he ran even worse at n/ket after that im sure obrien wont make the same mistakes with him thats the one thing with obriens operation they make mistakes but they never make the same mistake twice.
Report A_T July 24, 2010 9:58 PM BST
Fame and Glory always finds at least one too good at the highest level.
Report visionario July 24, 2010 10:01 PM BST
darakayna  a sighter for arc winner Sarafina
Report ilikewavingatbuses July 24, 2010 10:02 PM BST
it was sts in the derby and irish champ tho so i think we can forgive him that no!
Report mightymoyes July 24, 2010 10:07 PM BST
A_T Joined: 27 Jan 06
Replies: 667 24 Jul 10 21:58 
Fame and Glory always finds at least one too good at the highest level.
-----------

4 group 1's?
Report ilikewavingatbuses July 24, 2010 10:12 PM BST
oh yeah forgot about thoseLaugh
Report A_T July 24, 2010 10:17 PM BST
The G1s he's won have been weak - top horses absent. Not saying he's not a very good horse - he is - but just short of the very highest class.
Report jamesp July 25, 2010 12:00 AM BST
It's far too soon to write off Workforce.  He clearly ran way below his Derby form today, but he was having only his fourth race and is still learning.  We know that he had a very hard race at Epsom and he's not yet back to anything like his best.  But let's not forget that his best form is extremely good (a well above average Derby winner).  Harbinger was simply superb and has to be rated in the high 130's (based on the running of useful yardsticks Youmzain and Daryakana): he wouldn't need to improve on today's performance to win the Arc.
Report eric_morris July 25, 2010 3:18 AM BST
North Light was beaten at 8/11 fav into 2nd in the Irish Derby then was ante post fav for both the King George and St Leger after winning the Derby both which he was strongly touted for and missed both races one due to soreness and the other to go straight to the Arc where he finished only 5th. He also lost his final race. Good luck following Stoutey's Derby horses. Sure you will also get rich with Workforce.
Report eric_morris July 25, 2010 3:22 AM BST
Steinbeck is apobs best miler and not St Nick which only one or two knew a long time ago. Some also put good money on Canford against St Nick which in hindsight was the correct bet in the race taking on the short priced fav  Injury appears to have undone his potential shown in the Dewhurst.
Report eric_morris July 25, 2010 3:28 AM BST
Kris Kin missed the Irish Derby to come 3rd in the King George, 3rd in the Niel then a miserable 11th of 13 in the Arc. Good luck with that programme flying bolt.
Report eric_morris July 25, 2010 3:58 AM BST
Shergar:  -1 (St Leger) + Irish Derby (?) + KGeorge (?) = a loss ?

Shahrastani: Irish Derby (?) - 2 (KGeorge / Arc) = a loss ?

North Light: -3 (also NR ante post in KGeorge and St Leger)

Kris Kin: -3

Workforce: -1 so far

Make that -7 units ignoring ante post none runners which would make it worse on his last 3 Derby winners. The likely short prices combined with their defeats for both Shergar and Shahrastani make it likely all of his 5 Derby winners will have shown a loss after the Derby.
Report brigust1 July 25, 2010 7:21 AM BST
Look lads you have got to judge each race and racehorse on their merits. King George winners DO win the Arc. Mill Reef and Dancing Brave spring to mind. Workforce NEVER ran below par. CB beat him 3 1/4 lengths in the Dante and 3 1/2 lenghts here. Harbinger has only had 4 runs this year and is unbeaten, in fact, unchallenged.
I pray Harbinger now heads straight for the Arc and Fame & Glory wins next time and also heads for Paris because we will get a price over the next few weeks.
The only thing the bookies have on their side is that a lot of people don't believe their own eyes. Sometimes when it looks too good to be true it is, but not this time.
Report Prima Donna July 25, 2010 8:02 AM BST
eric_morris Joined: 27 Jun 10
Replies: 53 25 Jul 10 03:22   


Steinbeck is apobs best miler and not St Nick which only one or two knew a long time ago. 

Kirk,sorry eric!You can say this over and over again,you know full well Steinbeck was the most over hyped hores ever to come out of Ballydoyle,you and one or two others claim to have seen so much potential,or did you base that judgement on the Ballydoyle stable tour from last year!And lets not pretend Ballydoyle run what they hype as their best colts in GR1's for a course sighter,you seem unwilling to listen to people who with respect have far more insight into Ballydoyle,but then you are perfectly entitled to as it is all about opinions.If you really think Steinbeck is their best miler(3y'old)you might be correct that says more about Ballydoyle than Steinbeck, but you also can see he is NOT a GR1 horse that says all really,when it comes down to it he is not that good.Why on earth do you think he is going to the States?
Report A_T July 25, 2010 8:11 AM BST
Lilly Langtry is Ballydoyle's best miler
Report the lay preacher July 25, 2010 8:25 AM BST
if workforce never ran yesterday everyone would be saying he was a cert for the arc because he was rated by stoute himself as being better than harbinger if you think that was workforces true form you are living in cloud cuckoo land .all you had was a horse who didnt handle fast ground as stoute
warned everyone about before the derby .you can get away with the wrong conditions in one big race but not 2 on the trot. if it comes up soft on arc day harbinger wont even be placed.
and even if its not theres a fair chance he has already left the arc behind yesterday.
Report unclepuncle July 25, 2010 8:42 AM BST
If he reproduces the KG run which must be worth 135+ then there is nothing that can touch Harbinger - and thats a fact ( all in my humble opinion of courseLaugh)

Obviously there are several reasons why he might not be able to reproduce it - effects of hard race, ground on day, injury, bad ride etc. That as they say 'is the gamble'.
Report the lay preacher July 25, 2010 8:50 AM BST
i think you might see him missing the arc and having a rest and going to the breeders cup.
Report unclepuncle July 25, 2010 8:59 AM BST
Would be amazed if they didn't go for the Arc unless it was really soft.
Report A_T July 25, 2010 9:14 AM BST
Might want to win a big 10f race with him
Report Prima Donna July 25, 2010 9:25 AM BST
I will not be surprised to see Harbinger going for the Irish Champion stakes,that would make the most commercial sense for his next job,a point John Warren and Harry Herbert will not be unaware of.
Report eric_morris July 25, 2010 9:33 AM BST
Prima Donna I have never known anyone hype a horse on here more than you did St Nick for the Guineas. Kirk and one or two other clued up ante post punters with decades of ante post betting as opposed to breeding experience still couldn't convince you how misguided you were despite your apparent connection with the stable. St Nick is the 2nd most hyped Guineas horse ever after One Cool Cat with Hold That Tiger coming in 3rd and guess where they were all trained and were ridiculously short ante post favourites over the winter (Steinbeck was 12s jt 3rd fav amongst a cluster of horses behind St Nick and Canford). I would advise you to stick to breeding not betting as breeding gives you an insight on targets but not ability at a trip and without the latter you will struggle. Kirk told you St Nick beat middle distance horses in the RPT for toe and would not have won the Dewhurst. The Guineas the 3 Dewhurst runners all finished ahead of the 3 RPT runners. You were outclassed on the ante post front on the Guineas however you could have been right re Steinbecks injuries affecting his career.
Report brigust1 July 25, 2010 9:34 AM BST
And you think WE are living in cloud cuckoo land? Can you not read?
Capo Blanco beat Workforce 3 1/4 lengths in the Dante 10 weeks ago and yesterday beat him 3 1/2 lengths. Youmzain beat Daryakana a short neck in St Cloud 4 weeks ago and yesterday beat her a neck.
This is the best thing since sliced bread and you are too blind to see it. The only 'form' you are going on is your opinion there are absolutely no facts anywhere to back you up.
And you think he left the Arc at Ascot ysterday. Perhaps he left the King George at Ascot on Hardwicke day ffs. He won in a canter, watch it again if you don't believe me.
Report eric_morris July 25, 2010 9:37 AM BST
On that same thread Kirk also told you that, of the runners, Canford Cliffs was the most likely Guineas winner and ridden to get the mile he would have been much closer. Little doubt he is now the best miler even if he wasn't quite ready for the English Guineas also Makfi was on a very on day that day and 33s winners of the Guineas are a rarity.
Report eric_morris July 25, 2010 9:39 AM BST
I would also say Kirk is the most clued up ante post punter on here and unclepuncle the best no risk arber.
Report zilzal1 July 25, 2010 9:48 AM BST
LOL, nice to have you back ybm

cue more thousand odd threads
Report teflontom July 25, 2010 9:51 AM BST
Brigust1-some people just cannot see past the end of their nose.As you pointed out CB has beaten Workforce 3+lenghts on both occasions they have met and yet some people on here still insist this is NOT his true level of form!!Please wake up and smell the roses.I was one of the mugs who fell for the wonder horse tag,unfortunately Workforce will be seen in future years as an average Derby winner despite looking mighty impressive on the day.
Report eric_morris July 25, 2010 9:53 AM BST
Wish ybm would come back ... Kauto and Imperial Commander would have been destroyed by Best Mate in a good ground Gold Cup. No way would you be getting 5/1,11/2 in any year for Best Mate after his first Gold Cup win.
Report eric_morris July 25, 2010 9:56 AM BST
As ybm used to say ratings are based on sentiment and boosting the ratings of horses in behind to justify the winners. Some ridiculous ratings being dished out now.
Report Prima Donna July 25, 2010 9:57 AM BST
Well Kirk.......Sorry eric morris,You know full well the Dewhurst form has not been held up at all look how good both Fencing Master and Beethoven have been,I told you back in Jan that race was a very poor Dewhurst,a bit like Ballydoyles best 3y'old miler (colt)Steinbeck very poor when it comes down to winning anything at all,sorry he did win a poor maiden.........his ONLY win!
Report sintonian July 25, 2010 9:59 AM BST
Eric/Kirk, what was Steinbeck's injury? Was it a serious one ? Lillie Langtry suffered a fractured knee in America yet she has come and still managed to win a Group 1.

Why are you so sure injuries are to blame for Steinbeck not being that good today ?
Report eric_morris July 25, 2010 10:01 AM BST
I do recall the Guineas was the ante post race being discussed in the context of the known evidence ie the RPT and Dewhurst. Kirk told you how it was and you ignored him ... Cut and paste the Guineas result here and I, in kirks absence, can point out which ran in the RPT and which ran in the Dewhurst.
Report eric_morris July 25, 2010 10:03 AM BST
Don't get me wrong, I'm sure in the context of judging how fertile a horses donger will be you are second to none.
Report the lay preacher July 25, 2010 10:11 AM BST
brigust the 250/1 pacemaker confront was eased down in the final couple of furlongs and was still only beaten 4 lengths by workforce does that alone not tell you that worforce ran way below form
the reason for the drift on harbinger yesterday was because stoute alledgedly told a lot of people that harbinger couldnt give the weight to workforce do you honestly think that he is that bad a judge.ryan moore told you what happened to workforce he didnt handle the fast ground as i had already told  everyoneon numerous threads that he wouldnt.if it is soft on arc day harbinger wont be placed of that i am sure.
Report Prima Donna July 25, 2010 10:12 AM BST
Don't get me wrong, I'm sure in the context of judging how fertile a horses donger will be you are second to none. LaughLaughLaugh
Report zilzal1 July 25, 2010 10:14 AM BST
It helps as well judging how much of a donger a poster is Laugh
Report sintonian July 25, 2010 10:14 AM BST
any thoughts on his Injury, Kirk ?
Report brigust1 July 25, 2010 10:16 AM BST
This is the problem 'eric'. Someone makes a comment about St Nicholas Abbey and you think it reflects on Harbinger's chance to win the Arc. Or whether other winners by large margins have gone on in future races. You must judge each case on its individual merits not on non-mitigating factors.
What you have to ask yourself is:
Is the form suspect (i.e Derby form with pace maker second). Answer: No. This form is bullet proff whichever way you look at it.
Apart from extremes will the going matter?
No, he has won on fast and good to soft.
Will the trip matter? No way.
Will going Right handed matter? No way.
Will the jockey 'f' up? No way.
Will the trainer 'f' up? No way.
Have you seen anything to match or come close to this form? No way.
How hard a race did he have in the KG? Not as hard as the others by a long way.
Will the KG run be too soon before the Arc? No.

There it is on a plate. Ffs grab it with both hands. This does not come around many times in a decade.
Book up your trip to Paris. Gather together as much money as you can afford to lose and dive in. You will not regret it.
Report eric_morris July 25, 2010 10:17 AM BST
I'm sure there must be an art in judging that, maybe a double bend increases the thrust? Not my area so I'd be shafted also if my money had to go on it.
Report sintonian July 25, 2010 10:21 AM BST
lol Kirk. It appears you cant answer the question.

Perhaps you should stop being so bloody minded and accept you were wrong about Steinbeck.
Report eric_morris July 25, 2010 10:21 AM BST
Think this conformation is known as a Double Clinton maybe Prima Donna can confirm.
Report eric_morris July 25, 2010 10:26 AM BST
sintonian ... He was delayed several times in reaching the racecourse after only 1 run as we know and so has not developed with racing as he might have, Lillie Langtry was fine at 2 and was experienced enough by the time her injury came having run on different types of ground and had developed by the time her injury came. They are totally different cases IMO.
Report sintonian July 25, 2010 10:30 AM BST
she was just an example, though.

Loads of horses have injury set backs and still go to succeed at the highest level. Ballydoyle also have the best facilties and vets available. I think your cluthing at straws tbh and wont accept defeat.
Report eric_morris July 25, 2010 10:31 AM BST
brigust1... it is also about price and the French horses need to be respected. With the near 3 month wait and the horses welfare in that time to consider , it is also enough time for a horse to go off the boil. Would only consider a price anywhere near that if the race was a few weeks off as the horse is in form. Think I will be looking for a French shortened in the run up.
Report eric_morris July 25, 2010 10:33 AM BST
shortener
Report brigust1 July 25, 2010 10:42 AM BST
Of course the French horses Lope de Vega and Behkabar may be challengers but they may also fall be the wayside. I hope they win their races, along with Fame and Glory, in the run up to the Arc so that the price gets better. But to me there is only one winner. I have backed it already at the 2s and will be backing it all the way to Paris. Ten weeks of dreaming and then one big collection. I've been involved with racing since Sir Ivor's Derby so I hope I can spot a good 'un when it comes along and I have not been to the Arc before. I have been to Longchamp and I was at Njinsky's King George, Grundy's Derby, Mill Reef' Eclipse and King George and 16 of Brigadier Gerard's races. I am off to Paris in October and I have booked up today.
Report brigust1 July 25, 2010 10:44 AM BST
Mind you I haven't told my wife yet about Paris. She will be home in about an hour so I will break the news then. Wish me luck.
Report Prima Donna July 25, 2010 10:47 AM BST
Kirk/eric,what you wont accept is when dealing with Ballydoyle/Coolmore they are stallion salesmen when you stand a sire like F'steps on his tricky 3rd year he needs help to promote him,thats where Steinbeck comes into play,but all the bullmuck in the world has come to nothing,he was and is fragile thats why he spent so much time off the track last year.........all the time they keep telling mugs how good he is and amazingly they swallow it,enter him in good races but no intention of a run,meanwhile the mares flock in to F'steps that is their prime objective,not rocket sience maybe hard to accept.I for one will not be surprised to see Footstepsinthesand sold later this year as he is pretty much dead in the water as a commercial stallion.
Report jamesp July 25, 2010 11:15 AM BST
With respect to brigust1 and teflontom, who are entitled to their views, I can't understand how anyone can seriously believe that Workforce ran to his best yesterday.  I'm prepared to believe that Cape Blanco may have run the best race of his career to date - after all, he beat the 117-rated Youmzain by 3¼ lengths, which suggests that he ran to a mark of 122 (he was officially rated 119 going into the race).  Workforce was beaten 5½ lengths by Cape Blanco, which suggests that he ran to a mark of about 113-114.  Now, I'm prepared to accept that the official rating achieved by Workforce in the Derby (128) may be slightly inflated, but there's no way he's just a 113-114 horse: that would make him the worst Derby winner in history. 

No, let's be honest, Workforce put up a very special performance at Epsom and the subsequent form shown by some of the beaten horses underlines just how good that performance was: Jan Vermeer and Midas Touch were beaten 11 lengths at Epsom but finished within a couple of lengths of Cape Blanco in the Irish Derby; even if you think that the enigmatic At First Sight (beaten 7 lengths at Epsom) ran to his best in the Irish Derby, which is a very dubious proposition, he still finished closer to Cape Blanco than he did to Workforce at Epsom; Buzzword, beaten 16 lengths at Epsom, was only beaten 4½ lengths in the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot next time out.  To suggest that Workforce merely ran to his Dante form yesterday is laughable: for a start, he finished a couple of lengths further behind Cape Blanco than he did at York, and secondly every sane judge in the racing world accepts that Workforce put up a much improved performance at Epsom compared with York (one explanation for the improvement being that he hung badly and had an awkward head carriage at York due to the fact that the bit had slipped through his mouth).  Even if you downgrade Workforce's official rating for his Derby win from 128 to 120, if you then believe that Workforce ran to his best in yesterday's race (as some people on here seem to be suggesting) you have to give Harbinger a rating of about 145, which would make him by far the highest rated horse I have ever seen (about 10lbs ahead of the likes of Sea The Stars and Dubai Millennium).

The truth surely is that Harbinger produced a superb performance (probably equivalent to an official rating in the upper 130's) and that Workforce ran well below his best.  On the basis that Harbinger ran to a mark of about 138, which doesn't seem unreasonable (unless you believe that every other horse in the race ran below their official rating) I estimate that Workforce ran about a stone below the official rating he achieved in the Derby.  Those who continue to knock the Derby form (despite the fact that the winner smashed the track record) need to explain why it was that some very useful colts were unable to make any impression on Workforce through the final two furlongs of the race.
Report unclepuncle July 25, 2010 11:15 AM BST
I've heard about having a split personality but all this Kirk, Eric, YSM stuff is simply hilarious.

Maybe the reason he has multiple personalities is so that he can still have an argument on the forum if no one else bothers replying to his banal threads. Talk about being able to start an argument in an empty room[smiley:crazy]
Report brigust1 July 25, 2010 12:33 PM BST
James, given the way the race was run plus the fact that Capo Blaco was ridden out to the line it is quite believable that he could beat Workforce a couple of lengths more than the Dante. Secondly, in the sane world which AOB doesn't seem to dwell in, he thought the Derby for was suspect because At First Sight is Midas Touch's lead horse at home so fully expected to be well in front of him at least. Also Midas Touch, I think he said, got caught behind the weakening Cecil horse in the Derby just at the wrong time coming into the straight.
The race was a complete 'f' up with the 100/1 shot finishing a clear second so must be treated with maximum caution.
Also, on yesterday's run it is not beyond the realms of wisdom that Harbinger could be a better horse than STS. If so the Arc looks a formality so steps must be taken.
Report jamesp July 25, 2010 12:52 PM BST
I agree that Harbinger is probably better than STS, but I don't accept that the Derby form is on a par with the Dante form.  Sir Michael Stoute, for one, knows that Workforce was a much better horse at Epsom than he was at York.  You can make excuses for Jan Vermeer (lost both front shoes) and possibly Midas Touch (though I didn't notice any serious traffic problems for him), but what about Rewilding (OR 115), Al Zir (OR 110), Coordinated Cut (OR 107) and Buzzword (OR 112)?  Rewilding was the only one of those to get within 12 lengths of Workforce.  Did they all run well below their best?  If so, why?  Did their jockeys nod off to sleep when Workforce made his move, or were they simply unable to go anywhere near as fast as the winner?
Report ReaseHeath July 25, 2010 2:24 PM BST
Nobody put off by the fact that Harbinger followed up his best effort this time last year with sub-standard efforts in Aug and October?

Or that there is likely to be a useful home defence on Arc day?
Report Sandown July 25, 2010 4:18 PM BST
Amazing over-reaction to the performance by Harbinger. Any sectional time enthusiasts will know where I'm coming from.As for Workforce, I saw him at York and he overshadowed Cape Blanco in physique. Yesterday, he looked at best no better and more likely worse. I would think Epsom took a huge amount out of him
Report sintonian July 25, 2010 5:02 PM BST
Agree re Workforce. Anyone who thinks that was as good as he is .. is quite frankly deluded.
Report brigust1 July 25, 2010 5:24 PM BST
Not as deluded as those who think the Epsom form is reliable.
Report unclepuncle July 25, 2010 6:28 PM BST
One thing that this result may do is make it even more unlikely in the future that the Derby winner will go on to run in the KG - which will be a shame.
Report A_T July 25, 2010 7:02 PM BST

Sandown     25 Jul 10 16:18 
Amazing over-reaction to the performance by Harbinger. Any sectional time enthusiasts will know where I'm coming from.


What were the sectional times for the King George?

Report Roger De Bris July 25, 2010 7:13 PM BST
I have the numbers for the King George. Why dont you get your stopwatch out and do them AT? You can see your Cape Blanco flying home........Laugh
Report A_T July 25, 2010 7:16 PM BST
Cape Blanco did fly home - relative to the others. It's just that Harbinger was way out in front. Maybe CB thought he was in a different race? [;)]
Report A_T July 25, 2010 7:18 PM BST
Incidentally how fast was Harbinger's last 2 furlongs in comparison to previous KG winners? I'd be genuinely interested to know.
Report Roger De Bris July 25, 2010 7:20 PM BST
Cape Blanco was plodding home relative to how he finished at the Curragh, and taking the pace and going into account. Sandown knows the goods. The majority of handicap number crunchers are deluded on that King George.
Report A_T July 25, 2010 7:46 PM BST
If Cape Blanco was killed by strong early pace the horses held up at the back would have passed him.
Report Roger De Bris July 25, 2010 8:07 PM BST
not if they were all "burst" and incapable of going through the pain barrier. Group 1 performers like Youmzain dont get speed figures of 112 (Raceform) if they run up to form. 117 is the standard for Group 1. Ive rated the KG speed figure below Raceform as well.
Report A_T July 25, 2010 8:11 PM BST
Harbinger must be exceptional then if these horses who paced the race better "burst" while he powered away.
Report Roger De Bris July 25, 2010 8:18 PM BST
I wouldnt belittle Harbingers performance, it was a 117 for me, Raceform go 122. And he's improving every time. Its a nice solid sectional time as well, way off Workforces Derby run, but still nice and solid. Cape Blanco finished poor though, and I wouldnt pay attention to Youmzain, he's known to take days off in racing.
Report Stevie Gerrard July 25, 2010 8:35 PM BST
Interesting stuff roger, however aren't you being a bit harsh on cape blanco calling his performance that of a class 2 handicapper, after chasing the pace and then duelling with workforce from some way out he's still fought on well for 2nd. ok his finishing times over the last couple of furlongs may not look that good but in view of his earlier exertions they probably aren't too bad.
Report Roger De Bris July 25, 2010 9:01 PM BST
You could slightly upgrade Cape Blancos run, but I allow for a fast pace in my sectional time analysis. The Class 2 handicap reference was to my 110 final speed figure (114 Raceform). 110 being between Class 2 and Listed Pars. CB is rolling around the last furlong.
Report Stevie Gerrard July 25, 2010 9:56 PM BST
ok fair enough roger, thanks for the explaination. Visually it looked a very impressive performance from harbinger and my immediate thoughts were the likes of daryakana and youmzain ran near to their form of this season. but if they are finishing that slow then perhaps not. will try and have a go at timing some different sections and comparing it to previous king georges when I get the chance. cheers
Report Roger De Bris July 25, 2010 11:47 PM BST
now your talking Stevie. I havent a lot of Ascot 12f races done to compare it with, busy doing the next days races every day, but will be interesting to go back over 12f races at the track and compare pace. I do know the sectional average Gp1 runners usually do and CB was slow.
Report brigust1 July 26, 2010 6:48 AM BST
In my opinion the race wasn't a thorough test because they appeared to be going steady early on then with about a mile or 7 furlongs  to go the pace quickened. It quickened appreciably again with 4 furlongs to go where both Workforce and Capo Blanco were pushed along when asked to quicken to pass the pacemaker. From then on it was a dash to the line. That is why the time was so fast and also why the pacemaker never dropped right away. It is not why the winner won so far however. The winner is a good stayer and would have won under any circumstances. That is why the form is so strong. Often in these type of races strange results can be accounted for but not this one, there appear to be no ****s whatsoever in the form.
Report Figgis July 26, 2010 12:15 PM BST
Roger De Bris Joined: 27 Dec 08
Replies: 927 25 Jul 10 20:18   


I wouldnt belittle Harbingers performance, it was a 117 for me, Raceform go 122. And he's improving every time. Its a nice solid sectional time as well, way off Workforces Derby run, but still nice and solid. Cape Blanco finished poor though, and I wouldnt pay attention to Youmzain, he's known to take days off in racing.


I find it bewildering that anybody who takes compiling speed figures seriously could give Harbinger anything but a very high rating for Saturday's performance.
Report Jeff_Colby July 26, 2010 1:00 PM BST
I have not found a faster final 2 furlongs in a King George than that recorded by Harbinger. The only ones who get within 0.5 of a second are Troy and Montjeu.
Report Roger De Bris July 26, 2010 1:15 PM BST
I've got the ground slow as 1 length per mile. Harbingers raw figure as 116.99, usually rounded down to 116 +1 gives him 117. I could go 118, which is above the average Group 1 figure. I've no problem with Harbinger, its a lovely performance. Its the finish of Cape Blanco and the others that would worry me. And to say he's the best horse in the world is losing the plot. They'll be looking for fairies and leprechauns next. Wouldnt surprise me if he made another step forward and improved again, but this is getting hyped out of control imo.
Report Jeff_Colby July 26, 2010 1:22 PM BST
The time of Cape Blanco's last 2 furlongs was comparable to those achieved by some previous winners - Conduit, Dancing Brave, Galileo.
Report Sandown July 26, 2010 2:22 PM BST
Since the track was relayed the uphill finish is not nearly as stiff as before so straight time comparisons with earlier course performances are flawed even allowing for different ground.As for the claim that CB last 2f was comparable to previous winners, you must have a different stopwatch to me.As for a faster L2F than Harbinger, try Duke of Marmalade, but in any event that is a nonsense comparison without taking into account the going allowance and the final time.
Report Roger De Bris July 26, 2010 2:30 PM BST
and the pace Sandown. Dont know where hes getting CB finishing as good as past winners, he was like a drunken sailor the last furlong...
Report Sandown July 26, 2010 2:33 PM BST
Roger De Bris

Yep, as I said earlier, I don't think 12f and a strong pace is what he wants. If he goes to York we will see him in a better light.
Report Sandown July 26, 2010 2:33 PM BST
Over 10f that is
Report Roger De Bris July 26, 2010 2:39 PM BST
His Ascot run is strange though because off a slightly less testing pace, although faster than standard, he came home well at the Curragh. Just looks like he didnt run his race. He was getting thumped along over 3 furlongs out at Ascot...
Report Sandown July 26, 2010 3:01 PM BST
Roger

Looking back to the Curragh, I found that he won in a relative even pace but slowish overall which to my mind was suggesting that he couldn't have gone much faster there. When faced witha strong pace on Sat hhis figs confirmed that he was running on fumes at the end. I think that they have got their 12f out of him and from now on they will drop him back in trip. I could be wrong though about Coolmore's intentions as they have a stallion agenda. One thing, he has a pronounced daisy cutting action so the ground wasn't a factor and he did look in tip top shape.
Report Roger De Bris July 26, 2010 3:14 PM BST
fair points. I just think he had an off-day as well as the overly strong pace over the 12 at Ascot.
Report jamesp October 3, 2010 8:47 PM BST
Sorry to drag up this old thread, but I think it's fair to say that Workforce showed today that he was back to something like his Derby-winning form (which was superior to anything Cape Blanco had achieved to date).  He ran about 20lbs below his best in the King George at Ascot.  He was one of the very best Derby winners of modern times.
Report A_T October 3, 2010 9:44 PM BST
He ran much too close to the pace in the King George which when you look back is very odd when it was Juddmonte who ran the pacemaker. Basically they got it all wrong that day.
Report ilikewavingatbuses October 3, 2010 10:19 PM BST
sure harbinger was right up with the pace too!!thats not the excuse but there was something amiss.
Report bornisthekingofSB October 4, 2010 7:51 AM BST
is workforce another who cant act at ascot? i know i keep banging on about it but really do think ascot has its own 'form' book since the relaying of track.
Report sintonian October 4, 2010 9:12 AM BST
Nope.

He just had an off day.
Report pedrobob October 4, 2010 9:13 AM BST
Workforce still a relative baby at Ascot, and had a very hard race in the Derby, where both jockey/trainer were concerned straight after the race. When asked about Workforce after the King George, Stoute said "he will be back, don't you worry about that"..... Guess most trainers would say that, wouldn't they, but Stoute short on words and pretty monosyllabilic generally, so got to respect the man.

Suspect King George will be high on Workforce's 4yo agenda as Stoute will want to prove that Ascot flop all wrong. Might even go there without a prep race, as this horse clearly doesn't need one.
Report fuzzyone October 4, 2010 9:15 AM BST
I completely agree with bornisthekingofSB, Ascot is imo a gaff track where its results and form have to be taken in isolation. Any "great" run or underperformance there i find myself disregarding until i see it at another track.
Report A_T October 4, 2010 9:38 AM BST
He was probably still tired from the Derby but the way they ran him in the KG did not suit the horse. In the Derby and the Arc he came from well back  - whereas at Ascot he was settled not far off the lead.
Report sintonian October 4, 2010 9:42 AM BST
Ground aswell.

Nothing to do with Ascot, he was simply beaten to far. He is an Arc & Derby winner, do they really get beat 20 lenghts for simply not handling a track ?
Report bornisthekingofSB October 4, 2010 10:23 AM BST
sint if he runs at ascot again i would not be taking a short price about him.Have a look at some of the freak results there and the way some dont run on that surface,not saying 100% that is the reason for his showing,wa more asking the question, i.e Makfi didn't act,Harbinger loved the surface
Report neill d October 4, 2010 12:02 PM BST
Stote said after the Arc that he had overtrained Workforce before the King George.
Report neill d October 4, 2010 12:02 PM BST
* Stoute
Report A_T October 4, 2010 2:40 PM BST
said with hindsight. He's been doing it long enough to know how to train properly. The horse just had a bad day and the tactics were wrong.
Report geoff m October 4, 2010 3:18 PM BST
It is clear from  pictures i have  of him in the paddock @ Ascot he did appear to have run up very light with every rib clearly on show.certainly different from the Derby images.
This may well be in line with Stoutes post race comments that hed thought hed been to hard on him prior to Ascot
Report flyingbolt October 4, 2010 3:20 PM BST
Where's Eric Morris ?
Report sintonian October 4, 2010 3:26 PM BST
who cares .. the man is a pratt.
Report teflontom October 4, 2010 3:47 PM BST
As the original poster i feel i must hold my hands up and admit i got this fellow all wrong again!!!!
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