Forums

Horse Antepost

There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
The Headmaster
21 Jul 10 14:32
Joined:
Date Joined: 14 Nov 01
| Topic/replies: 3,875 | Blogger: The Headmaster's blog
Address Unknown     
Al Zir (USA)         
Anhar (USA)         
Arctic Cosmos (USA) 
At First Sight (IRE)
Await The Dawn (USA)
Battleoftrafalgar   
Bright Horizon       
Buzzword             
Cape Blanco (IRE)   
Corsica (IRE)     
Dancing David (IRE)
Dandino           
Dreamspeed (IRE)   
Dubawi Phantom     
Fencing Master     
Flying Cross (IRE)
Harris Tweed       
Into Wain (USA)   
Joshua Tree (IRE) 
Layali Al Andalus     
Midas Touch           
Momkinzain (USA)       
Monterey (IRE)         
Monterosso             
Rebel Soldier (IRE)   
Rewilding             
Scottish Reel (IRE)   
Simon de Montfort (IRE)
St Nicholas Abbey (IRE)
Ted Spread           
Theology             
Total Command         
Very Good Day (FR)   
Vibrant Force (USA)   
Vulcanite (IRE)       
Hibaayeb             
Meeznah (USA)         
Miss Jean Brodie (USA)
Myplacelater         
Snow Fairy (IRE)   
Wedding March (IRE)


Plenty to chew on....

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
Page 1 of 6  •  Previous 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 225
By:
carvillshill
When: 21 Jul 10 14:38
No Mikael Glinka, shame for that nice bloke in the Post Grin
By:
rhinestone
When: 21 Jul 10 17:00
He tipped it up for the Leger after it had been sold and was not going for the Leger, harsh on people who listened to him, but good for people who kept laying Blush
By:
neill d
When: 21 Jul 10 17:14
Did ihear correct that he is gone to Gary Moore, That probably means eventually Herman Brown and a trip to  Dubai a la Mourilyan
By:
rhinestone
When: 21 Jul 10 17:41
Yep ^
By:
cryoftruth
When: 21 Jul 10 19:01
My two for the St Leger at this stage are

Midas Touch - despite what was said in the post about Glinka being the more likely stayer, I cannot agree and think that Midas Touch has looked like a st Leger horse all season - and he is bred for it too
and

Snow Fairy - she seems to stay very well and the plan appears to be Yorkshire Oaks - St Leger and the breeders cup, not worrying about the Arc this year. I like this plan a lot myself. York is always a perfect interval for St Leger candidates and she certainly has the class for the Leger and she stays very well. I would not think she would be good enough to land an Arc though.
By:
town moor
When: 21 Jul 10 22:17
looking at the way snow fairy ran the other day I thought she'd definitely stay, but the dosage figures look questionable based on recent results.
By:
the lay preacher
When: 21 Jul 10 23:19
midas touch all day long. was made for the race.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 22 Jul 10 09:53
Rewilding and Midas Touch the obvious ones at the top of the market.
I'm quite interested in how Total Command progresses, if he were to run a good trial in the Voltigeur then he'd have to come into the reckoning.
By:
Win only - Sp only
When: 22 Jul 10 11:28
its ledger ffs
By:
The Headmaster
When: 22 Jul 10 11:41
Oh dear wospo.  Better luck next time.Plain
By:
Win only - Sp only
When: 22 Jul 10 12:03
Hope your pupils can spell better than you Headmaster, clearly ledger.
By:
Prima Donna
When: 22 Jul 10 12:39
Win only - Sp only     22 Jul 10 12:28 
its ledger fss

Win only - Sp only     22 Jul 10 13:03 
Hope your pupils can spell better than you Headmaster, clearly ledger.

The race is called the St.Leger!A ledger is something old book keepers would keep!
By:
flyingbolt
When: 22 Jul 10 13:21
Unbelievably you seem to have landed one,Win Only
By:
Win only - Sp only
When: 22 Jul 10 15:54
its called the Ledger because its the first race bookmakers formed a "book" on, some real ignorance on the thread.
By:
Desmond Orchard
When: 22 Jul 10 16:16
Nope, it's because winning connections have to return the trophy to the Jockey Club a month before the race is won, whereupon tradition dictates that it sits on a window sill (or ledge) for exactly 4 weeks before being taken to Donny, otherwise the race will suffer an unforetold mishap. This caused much consternation when the race was moved to Ayr as JC big-wigs, unaccustomed to travelling so far north and so having no idea of the likely time that it would take to travel to such foreign climes, demanded the trophies return in February.
By:
zilzal1
When: 22 Jul 10 16:20
It called the St Leger because of the "Art of Legging" which was earlier spelt in a different manner and should really be known as the St Legger
By:
Prima Donna
When: 22 Jul 10 16:22
The event was devised by Anthony St. Leger, an army officer and politician who lived near to Doncaster. The race did not initially bear his name – it was first referred to as "A Sweepstake of 25 Guineas". It was restricted to horses aged three, and its original distance was two miles. The rules stipulated that colts were to carry 8 st, and fillies 7 st 12 lb. The inaugural running was held at Cantley Common on 24 September 1776. The first winner was an unnamed filly owned by the event's organiser, the 2nd Marquess of Rockingham. The filly was later named Allabaculia.
The title "St. Leger Stakes" was decided at a dinner party held in 1777 to discuss the following year's race. It was suggested that it should be named in honour of the host, the Marquess of Rockingham (the "Rockingham Stakes"), but the Marquess proposed that it should be named instead after Anthony St. Leger. The event was moved to its present location, Town Moor, in 1778.[1]


As you say Win only Sp only some real ignorance on this thread,headed by YOU!Anyway I'm going racing now.
By:
ben10
When: 22 Jul 10 16:29
Devil
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 22 Jul 10 16:49
I don't think it should count if you catch someone who joined as late as 09.
By:
jan_vermeer
When: 22 Jul 10 17:41
win only sp only,what a tool LaughLaugh
By:
Win only - Sp only
When: 22 Jul 10 17:46
at least I am not named after a group 2 tripless dog.

anyhow I am correct, you all know f all
By:
EastLower Gooner
When: 22 Jul 10 18:52
Buzzword
By:
Prima Donna
When: 22 Jul 10 22:13
I must be mad,you got me hook line and sinker!!!'Gone Fishing'.
By:
The Headmaster
When: 23 Jul 10 09:34
Gordon Steaks entries.  Marcus trying to give himself a headache by the looks of it.

Corsica (IRE)         
Simon de Montfort (IRE)
Admission             
Anhar (USA)           
Arctic Cosmos (USA)   
Bay Willow (IRE)       
Circumvent             
Dandino               
Dubawi Phantom         
Fencing Master         
Film Score (USA)   
Rebel Soldier (IRE)
Theology           
Very Good Day (FR)
Rumoush (USA)
By:
ben10
When: 23 Jul 10 09:39
All 3 Godolphin horses interesting, not sure SDM wants this and certainly the Leger trip though.
By:
The Headmaster
When: 23 Jul 10 10:00
SDM's stamina certainly looks questionable on paper, ben, but either Godolphin get horses to outstay their pedigree or I'm not reading them properly?  Would be keen to know what the pedigree experts thought of Rule Of Law winning the Leger and Duke Of Venice taking the Queens Vase....both headscratchers for me.
By:
ben10
When: 23 Jul 10 10:08
Wasn't Rule Of Law just a really good ride?
By:
Equimine.co.uk
When: 23 Jul 10 10:24
Headmaster,

I cannot see where you concerns for SDM's stamina (certainly at 12f) lie.
King's Best is an imponderable as he fractured a cannonbone when third favourite for Sinndar's Irish Derby, but is the sire of Workforce and Oiseau Rare. Of the male members only, the sole ancestor not a 12f or plus horse, to the third generation was Kingmambo. Kingmambo is the sire of Alkaased and Rule of Law.
By:
The Headmaster
When: 23 Jul 10 11:41
Was a good ride, ben, definitely.  Wasn't sure he could be a 12f horse though never mind a 14f one?

On King's Best, equi, I never thought Workforce had stamina doubts or his sire couldn't get a top class 12f horse.  Lombardo's a proper stamina influence and  Allegretta and Eva Luna were never going to produce a short runner.  I'm not too concerned about SDM but I'd say it's as much the run style as the pedigree (and we're talking 14f here). The French race reports can go ott sometimes but do many Leger winners earn the comment 'quickened brilliantly' at 10f?

More interested in your take on Kingmambo and Rule Of Law.  Alkaased had Niniski close up so that's explainable but Rule Of Law?  Mr P, Miesque, Never So Bold, Nureyev, Royal Academy....where's the stamina coming from?
By:
town moor
When: 23 Jul 10 13:03
I'm in the midst of compiling the dosage trends for this race, but at first sight they look VERY strong. Unusually there are VERY clear differences in dosage trend between figures of winnere, second and third placed horses. The field can easily be narrowed down to just a handful of "likely" winners with a few more "possibles" and lots more "unlikely". For what it's worth SDM fits the trends of the last decade perfectly.
By:
Equimine.co.uk
When: 23 Jul 10 13:19
Headmaster,

I am sorry but you have lost me concerning Kingmambo and Rule of Law.
What are you asking?
By:
Equimine.co.uk
When: 23 Jul 10 13:25
Don't set me off on Dosage!
By:
foxy
When: 23 Jul 10 13:28
dandino is an interesting runner
By:
The Headmaster
When: 23 Jul 10 13:29
Hello again equi,

Bit cheeky but I'd like a pedigree boff to teach me how to read a pedigree properly!  I'm not a slave to breeding and acknowledge there will always be horses who don't do what their pedigree tells them, but using Rule Of Law (14f) and Duke Of Venice (16f) as examples, was there a way of knowing they'd get home?  I can't see it and suspect, like Venetia over the sticks, Godolphin can train stamina into some horses that isn't there to begin with?
By:
The Headmaster
When: 23 Jul 10 13:30
Agree foxy - horse on a roll for sure.
By:
The Headmaster
When: 23 Jul 10 13:31
town moor too - all thoughts appreciated...
By:
Equimine.co.uk
When: 23 Jul 10 13:47
Headmaster,

There are of course numerous factors that affect the performance, or lack, of a racehorse from the day it is born. Why would they be any different from humans?

I am no family buff, or racing style expert.
What I believe I do know is how to assess the statistical probability of "horse X" producing certain levels of performance over certain distances and goings. In other words "X Sire" covering "Y mare" will have "Z%" percentage chance of producing a horse rated say 100+. Over a certain distance it should either increase or decrease by "A%" 

For instance, without assessing the mare, there is a 22% probability of Pivotal producing a two year old rated 90+. Based upon a number of statistical distribution methods using his stud career since standing in 1997 to the end of 2009. The mare is of course equally important, we rate  mare performances in order that we can assess how much a "sire" upgrades/degrades his mares.
By:
town moor
When: 23 Jul 10 14:09
Equimine, whatever anyone thinks about the rights and wrongs of dosage, it's a fact that there are some races which show strong dosage trends and the trends for this race are VERY strong.
By:
Equimine.co.uk
When: 23 Jul 10 14:27
town moor,

My personal view:

What does Dosage tell you?
Dosage tells you at what distances a horse is likely to perform best, based upon the offspring of their male ancestors only. Would you like to tell your mother, or grandmother, that they had no bearing on the person you are! What do you think a geneticist would say?
So who are these vital male ancestors?
They are a select band of 210 (if none of these are in your family tree you have no Dosage profile) stallions. Of the two hundred and ten, 139 were born before 1959, 61 were born between 1959 and 1980 whilst 10 (that under is 5% of the total) were born from 1981 onwards.  Do you think that they reflect accurately the pedigree influences of a thoroughbred in the 21st Century?
Is Dosage statistically accurate?
I certainly believe there are statistical queries associated with Dosage analysis. Dosage profiles are based upon a points scoring system. Dosage traces back four generations.  In other words to, great-great grandfathers (no distaff factors).  Under the system, the eight great – great grandfathers can contribute as many points as the sire. Not a principle I would agree with. In fact if your horse’s sire was not one of the elite 210, he is deemed as having no influence for dosage, but the eight great-great grandfathers would!

Trends from dosage from one view must be strong, but meaningless. What percentage of horses running today are Northern Dancer free for instance? What percentage of "quality bred" horses would not have one or more of the 210 in their pedigree?

The "Chef De Race" website has Sadler's Wells down as a recent addition.Confused
Page 1 of 6  •  Previous 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
‹ back to topics
www.betfair.com