Horse Antepost
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
is it me or am i the only one who thinks ip is a good thing for next years gold cup at 13/2 its a knockin bet
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 60
|
By:
He'll be ten, he only beat Denman in the Gold Cup who was beaten 3 times this year, so question marks over what he beat. Also he has never beaten Kauto Star when completing. I wouldn;t be fooled by the ratings of those 3 horses, they're all rated too high for me.
I think there'll be a new winner and the beginning of a new generation of Staying Chasers, I think it'll be Joncol myself. |
|
By:
doubt Joncol will ever run at Cheltenham let alone win a gold cup
|
|
By:
he won well last year loves the course great trainer and jockey geared up for that race i think he will take the beating again
|
|
By:
Came out of his field today and had his shoes put on, will go for a walk on the road tomorrow - looks an absolute picture.
|
|
By:
joncol only runs on heavy ground as the owner and trainers are scared that its such a big horse that it'll die if falling on anything but heavy.
|
|
By:
Teddy i hope ur availing of those generous prices... TL came back in last week, looks great and raring to go.... [;)]initial signs very good
|
|
By:
Swinia [;)] whats the early target Hennessey? do you own it?
|
|
By:
he has a great chance connaz but i wouldnt bet him in any other races before the gold cup he will be trained to the minute and has a favs chance imo last year was no fluke imo.
|
|
By:
I agree with CVB, it will take a mighty effort for IC to retain his crown.
On the plus side he adores cheltenham and has not many miles on the clock, i think backing him on the day would be a decent idea. |
|
By:
Not classy enough to win a King George or a big handicap carrying weight but will be aimed purely at the Gold Cup so has a chance to repeat.
|
|
By:
Certainly won't be running a Gold Cup winner in a handicap - why would we possibly want to ? !! He remains underated even having won a Gold Cup, and I think we can find some more improvement yet. As ever you need a bit of luck, but he has summered better than ever and looks a picture. The Lay Preacher is not far off the mark, he will be trained for one race - because there is only one Gold Cup. All being well he will take in the Betfair Chase and the King George on route. We learned a lot last season and if we can get him to Cheltenham in the same condition he will take a bit of beating. Will probably be stripped a bit fitter for the King George this year and allowed to stay on the pace which is his preference.We learned a lot about managing his physical issues last year, and applying that going forward will make his program easier to determine. Have not really discussed it with the other owners yet so the Lexus could be in the frame, but why risk bottomless ground in Ireland and two ferry trips when last years plan didn't work out too badly. can he break the 10-y-o stat, who knows - but he hasn't got many miles on the clock - and he does love Cheltenham.
|
|
By:
Bobby your one hell of a lucky guy to be part of such a wonderful horse. Clearly you (nor i) underrate him however at this early stage, which horse do you most fear ?
|
|
By:
Shame Mikael D'Haguenet is having a luckless time he is a real superstar in the making but can Mullins get him to a Gold Cup in the future and will he even go there as Ruby will always have a ride for Nicholls in the race. Kauto should be over the hill next year, the extra stamina needed for the Gold Cup has never been ideal for him or the undulating track. IC 11/2 you wouldn't get a sniff of a price like that for Best Mate in his heyday very open race next season could be a handicapper winning it.
|
|
By:
Bobby: Many congrat's for ICs great GC victory, but what on earth are you thinking in going back to Kempton on Boxing Day, on a track where he is at best "ill at ease". (right handed & all that)
Surely, Leopardstown at Xmas, will play far more to his strengths. I'll call your bluff  if IC is so underated then why not run him in the old mackeson or massey ferguson, as done by long gone champions, especially as he is so good fresh. (he'd start 5-2 at best, with no shame in defeat.Saying that, if there is a bonus from one of the exchanges, for the Haydock, Kempton, Cheltenham, I don't blame you for chasing the dollar. GL |
|
By:
Bobby Dazzler - There hasn't been bottomless ground at leopardstown (christmas meeting) since the listener won in 2006.... also the track drains very well. He would be far more suited to leopardstown then kempton.
Good luck with your success. |
|
By:
Swania - don't really fear any horse, but that has always been the case. We just focus on getting him there on the day in the best condition we can, and have always believed in him. If we get him there in the same condition as last season he will take some beating, and I will be the first to applaund any horse that does. At the end of the day you need a lot of luck to get there on the day in one piece. For that reason we focus on his preparation rather than anything else. If you put me on the spot I think last seasons novices were a moderate bunch, so the challenge is more likley to come from the seasoned campaigners than a new kid on the block. That is why I have always believed that the ante post markets are rank bad value. If you take the top 6 in all of the ante post markets right now then I will guarantee only 5 or 6 will turn up. Factor that 30-40% risk and where does it leave the price.
Saxon Farm - why would we want to run him in a handicap ? Giving lumps of weight away when not fully tuned up is hardly sensible, and the graded prizes are worth more money. Leopardstown is an option, but there is a risk in that the ground can be a killer and he faces a week away from home with two ferry trips in suspect weather. There is only one Gold Cup - that is still the dream - and nothing else comes close, on that basis Kempton Park is the safe and sensible option. It would be remiss of me not to point out that popular belief was that he wouldn't get 3m 2f, I am not so sure he couldn't spring a surprise going RH. He will certainly be ridden positively this year, and probably stripped a bit fitter going into the race. |
|
By:
Cheers Bobby. People on the forum will know my connection with trafford lad and i look at your faith in IC as an inspiration. Like you i believe Traff will have his day in the sun and would love to think he could have it on the big day in Prestbury. In his novice season he had genuine excuses everytime he was beaten (before the Moriarty he had scoped badly all week, and ground too fast in the Powers Gold Cup). On his day eg the Drinmore, he beat grade 1 winners...
Keep the faith and IC and TL will cross swords[:p] |
|
By:
Good luck Swinia, we all need it - is Trafford Lad close to returning to the track, I know he had some heat in a leg before the 2009 Hennessey, is that the problem that has kept him off the track ?
|
|
By:
cheers bobby just read your threads and its filled me with even more confidence
|
|
By:
Thanks Bobby for being so open about a Gold Cup winner.
|
|
By:
ya he had tendon trouble...wasn't too bad and could have made return back end but it was felt best to leave it to this season....everybody delighted with his recovery lets hope he returns 100%. When i think about Venalmar been out for the season and not making a full recovery
He has bulked up alot, his back end in particular and looks amazing...he came back in last week...fingers crossed  |
|
By:
Good luck Swinia, slow and sure when it comes to tendons - he is still a young horse so no rush. There is a half brother to Trafford Lad (By Moscow Society) in the Tattersalls August sale which I was interested in.
|
|
By:
Hi Bobby,
I have been looking at the Gold cup market and can see this really cutting up. 1. Stats are against the 1st 3in the market, kauto/denman (both 11) and your horse IC (10). 10 year olds dont win gold cups nowadays, however i think IC is a lay to bet horse as i dont hink it will run well in the king george (sorry just my opinion) and therefore drift in the market. 2. Then there is Somersby, What a Friend, Big Buck, Joncol, Long Run, Punchestown and cooldine. What a friend will proberly bypass for Aintree, Big buck will stay hurdling and if not his jumping dodgy, joncol will proberly bypass chelt for punchestown, long run and punchestown dont stay in my opinion and cooldine is just not good enought. therefore at this moment in time i think your horse is a lay yo bet and somersby is solid bet as if you look at his races so far they are similar to best mates races where he has gradually steped up in distance and is a solid jumper and traveller. to me he could give you most to think about. be interesting if Hen knight starts him off at exeter in november.... |
|
By:
imperial commander worst winner of a gold cup since nortons coin
|
|
By:
beat 180+ rated horses without breakign a sweat, crawl back into your hole
|
|
By:
Hi Big Bucks, I would forgive Somersby his Aintree run as he was kicked before the start, got loose and generally had a miserable time. The two questions are whether he would get 3m 2f, and whether he will handle the step up in class, nothing he has posted so far would put him into the frame. The problem as a betting proposition for the Gold Cup is that the trainer is unlikely to sanction anymore that three runs before March, with a strong chance that she decides to take in the Ryanair instead of the Gold Cup this year as he will only be 7. The Arkle is interesting as Somersby was close enough at the top of the hill before making a mistake three out. The formbooks view the race as if he was outpaced down the hill and stayed on up the hill strongly, conclusion he is a stayer who needs further. A lot of my betting strategy is based upon jumping technique, as the impact of hitting the fence can have far less impact than the changes to stride pattern caused by the error, (which impact on the horses airflow and breathing). I suspect it is likely that if Somersby had not made the mistake he would have been able to lay up with the pace, and would have won,(i.e he didn't travel down the hill as he struggled to regain his airflow and breathing pattern, once he did then he was able to stay on up the hill). For that reason I still have question marks over whether he will really get the trip.
|
|
By:
Cheers for the reply Bobby, good insight regards to the airflow and breathing. I took my theory on that his races and training seem parallel with that of Best Mates. Although i did forget 1 thing and that was the ryanair was not about when best mate was making the step up in trip.
Any word on LRM? what about Oscars ballad and Highland Flash, are they still going to be sent to Elliot as on RP they are still with J Ross and D Wachman. Been keeping an eye on them for a while but only seen HF ran in a PTP. Good luck with all your horses for the year. |
|
By:
We are going to have a real punt at Perth in September with Frontier Dancer in the Novice Chase, and Frontier Spirit / Le Roi Max in the maiden hurdles or bumper. All are back in training and going well.
Oscars Ballad is proving a latent talent, we struggled to keep the condition on him in full training, having solved that problem he then got a cough ! He is stepping up his work now, and whether he goes in another bumper for Kevin Ross or not will be decided on the early ground. Either way he will be with Gordon this autumn. Highland Flash is a big horse and still growing, scared himself in his first point to point, (put the wind up JD Moore as well), but handled the soft ground well. Had a swelling on a tendon at the back of his knee after the race so was turned out for the summer - looks great but given his size I might leave him with Kevin and give him some more experience in points or hurdles before he heads to Gordons. |
|
By:
Great to hear all going well. Am sure gordon will place them well.
Le Roi Max looked a good horse from his 1st run seem to be races in him, am sure he learnt alot from that run. Be good to see HF on the course looks beautifully bred. All the best for the winter and hope your punt pays off in september to fund the winter months ahead! |
|
By:
Good luck Bobby, will look out for them
|
|
By:
its just a pleasure to read threads such as these i love jump racing for that reasun cheers guys
|
|
By:
ditto...it was great to watch imperial commander last season,good luck for next season[not incl summer jumping!]
|
|
By:
i think weird al will win the gold cup this year. would have won the rsa last year if he wasnt injured. my only slight doubt is that they might go the impearal commander route and go for the ryanair first. thoughts please???
|
|
By:
very imformative thread lads, well done
|
|
By:
Weird Al will get the trip no problem and handles the track. Form line with Knockara Beau suggests he wouldn't have been far away in the RSA but would have needed to improve again to win it. Those form lines look solid rather than spectacular. He is clearly a horse of some quality but not straightforward, he had to have oxygen after his hurdle win at Warwick and has managed only five starts up to the age of 7. Had problems when with Venetia Williams between winning his point and making his debut in a bumper. Cureent trainer thinks he is the best chaser he has trained. IMHO the step up to championship class revolves around two factors, the ability to jump at speed, and the ability to go the pace and a half quicker that the run in the championship races for a long way. Personally I would have doubts in both areas, his jumping technique is solid rather than spectacular,and whilst it has been an asset in novice company he will have to improve it to compete in championship races - he also tends to hit the odd flat spot which is costly in the top grade, (flat spots are usually caused by the inability of the respiratory system to fuel the requirements of the muscular system). He is a big horse, the oxygen at Warwick and the flat spots in his races would concern me, it may not be symptamatic of wind problem, but he needs to be seen in a race at championship pace before you could be sure he will handle any step up in class. Off 152 he could feasibly go for the Paddy Power or **** and would have to go close to winning to be competitive in the GC. Looks a brave bet ante post even at the current odds.
|
|
By:
***** = B O Y L E S P O R T S !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
|
|
By:
Racing needs more owners like Bobby D, owners who take the time to communicate and make punters feel involved. Even if they all started tomorrow though, it would be too late. I've been interested in racing for more than 40 years and have worked in several areas of the industry. Racing is now so fragmented that it cannot survive in its current structure.
Racecourses seem to have lost faith in the REL/BHA/RCA etc., and have decided to take the short term view of grabbing what they can while they can. They get £16m in media rights payments but those rights cost bookmakers £32m (balance goes to the broadcasters) plus the Levy and all their other costs. 500 betting shops have closed in the past two years, most of them independents. Racing's levy payment this year is £76m (it was £118m two years ago). There is simply not enough money to support 60 racecourses and thousands of fixtures. Sponsors are steadily dropping out, broadcasters pushing racing further into the backwaters, sports editors cutting its page space, bookmakers no longer promoting it (two of their best known PR men, Hood and Wilkins have effectively been made redundant) racing punters of the old school are dying and the new generation want to bet on football and play slots - they find racing baffling and/or boring. The festivals will live on for a few years but the other courses will gradually close and be built over. I never believed I'd see it in my lifetime but am now sadly confident that I will. Make the best of what remains gentlemen. Those charged with running racing are slowly but surely chiseling RIP into its gravestone. |
|
By:
well thats a grim prognosis!!!
back to the gc.... weird al was a hype horse for me last season.. after sitting down and looking at his form before the rsa i was firmly against him even after a few horses dropped out. Horses like Knockara beua and burton port are solid but will never ever be top classes chasers and barring miracels will not win gc`s. Weird al falls into this area... ive backed diamond harry because his price is too big but i feel somersby could be the one as he gets older... ic last year was really one of my favorite perfomrances in my short career following racing. Hope to see the gc won so convincingly again and again |
|
By:
Grim but true.
Weird Al is a very good jumper of a fence and already has some very good form to his name with the chance of progression very high. Don't think he's been hyped up at all. |