CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP 2011 LONGSHOTS

Of the three you mention i think that Imperial Commander has the best chance of reproducing his best form provided he"s given the right campaign.

Denman doesnt seem to be the horse he once was & i think Kautos season will mainly be geared towards the King George.

I have some doubts (although no evidence) about Joncols ability to act around Cheltenham, especially on faster ground.

My original fancy was Weapons Amnesty before he was reportedly ruled out for the season, so if i had to name two they would be Puncestowns & Weird Al.

I think Punchestowns will prove to be better than his RSA run after finishing lame, but will he be aimed at the race?
Weird Al could be just below top class but may be open to alot of improvement if they can keep him sound.

All in all it could be a very open race next year as there doesnt seem to be anything exeptional coming through the ranks.

burton port & planet of sound both in the 40s on here....would be underated longshots for me..

I would suggest something that is not likely to make the race which turns up late. No value at all in the Cheltenham markets for next year in the experienced horses and too early for the novice races.

I am a big fan of Joncol but he doesn't seem to stand a lot of races and the trainer prefers to run in Ireland. I backed him for the Sun Alliance in 2009 and was gutted that he didn't run.

Trafford Lad if he can come from his injury.

Bensalem

How's about Knockara Beau? Finished RSA very strongly so could well be suited by extra 2 furlongs.

I fancy him for the Hennessey as well. [;)]

Planet Of Sound

Mad Max would be the one for me if he was to be aimed at this race tbh. Screaming out for this trip, Arkle run despite big blunder was solid and he duly lagged up at Aintree.

Agree with FFT - biggest problem is that Henderson also has Long Run, Burton Port and Punchestowns so the biggest problem is that Mad Max might end up in the Ryanair.

Would also put in a word for Carruthers who is young enough to have some improvement in him yet - also impressed with the way he ran such a cracker at Aintree after a tough race in the Gold Cup.

Bensalem Gold Cup 55 on here

pandorama and taranis are both worth considering and havent been mentioned yet.

kauto star is still a better horse than all the others mentioned on here. its a sorry state of affairs if taranis, knockara beau or carruthers are upto winning a gold cup

^ fair enough but the thread is entitled Gold Cup longshots!

There is a possibility that Denman,Kauto and Imperial Commander will all be in regressive mode by next March and it might not be a vintage renewal.

does pride of dulcote count as a novice ?

The only value bets for Cheltenham 2011 is to lay anything at 3/1 or less until October. Apart from Big Bucks you would have collected on every one of them last season.

Albertas Run to follow the path taken by Imperial Commander. The horse has the class and the proven Cheltenham record to be a strong contender for the Gold Cup, if connections decide to go that route this time. Decent ground and a light early season campaign would help, of course.

Pandorama is one that is a bit less exposed, but may just have enough class to come into contention. At a much bigger price, Kempes must have surprised many with how well he performed stepped up in trip at the end of last season. Gold Cup trip/track and class may well be beyond him, but may be worth another look to gauge just what he might be capable of over the longer distance.

Paul Nolan will almost certainly pull Joncol from the race unless the ground is soft. I love the horse and agree that he would have a live chance in the Gold Cup, but I'd never back him antepost unless it was NRNB

i dont think joncols much of a stayer myself. ryaniar on soft perfect for him

Another baseless claim, looks a perfect Gold Cup horse to me, with the right combination of speed and (proven) stamina. Ground is his biggest issue, and it wouldn't be a problem to give him another year to develop.

wasa definitely outstayed by what a friend last year dont think he wants an extra 2 furlongs

Thought he stepped up on that in the Hennessy tbh, he's been brought along slowly and not rushed, given more time he'll get the trip easily. Still needs to improve a lot to catch the very top class though agree on you Kauto point.

does pride of dulcote go into novice races this year or straight into the proper races

He won a race before getting injured so isn't eligible for Novice Chases any more. Imagine he'll start with a Graduation Chase and see from there? Nicholls got a couple like that in that position

Somersby - looks to be trained the same way best mate was trained

Pride of Dulcote - considering the way Weapons Amnasty boasted the form of the AB hurdle of 2 years ago

Weapons amnasty aswell for small change because after all it is barynes

You can forget Joncol at Cheltenham- he's the most right-handed horse I've seen!

ReaseHeath, that is always going to be the issue with Henderson chasers this year.

In my opinion it should be:

Mad Max: Gold Cup
Long Run: Ryanair
Punchestowns: Gold Cup
Burton Port: Aimed at BF chase

Don't forget Henderson has French Opera, who ran a corker off 154 in the Grand Annual and duly lagged up next time out at Ayr, who would be my idea of a QM horse for him (doubt he'd be good enough to win, but every chance of running well)

Barber's Shop should go to crufts as well

cant see trev.hemm not having a crack @ the g/c wiv burton tbh.

eve fft..lads.

re Pride of Dulcotte. I have backed him for the Gold Cup but have now been told he's pretty likely to be going for the Ryanair. I think he's top class and I'm looking forward to seeing him run.

trev [;)]

Fair point Re: Burton Port, didn't consider the owner [smiley:crazy]

Just think he'd be tailor made for Aintree, lagged up there in April iirc

Out of Hendo's, Burton Port would have the best Gold Cup chance I think, he's the only one gagging for the trip, with Punchy next (will stay 3m well unlike many think, but 3m 2 1/2f might just stop him). Long Run's a KG horse not sure he'll be as good at Chelt, Mad Max will be the Ryanair, thats how I see it.

Interesting thought rhinestone, Burton Port crying out for the trip. Any chance they could target the National given how Denman may turn up?

Do you think they will run Denman FFT? My main 2/3 fancies for the national wouldn't be suited if Denman ran. And yes it would give Burton Port a big chance.

I wonder if they would have ran BP in the Scottish if Denman had ran...

I thought they said after Punchestown that he may be geared towards it this time, given how he is knocking on a bit now and unlikely to regain the Gold Cup (Read something like that on here, so not sure how true it is)

I know Harry had always been keen on the idea, but given what happened the other week with him is he even still involved in the Denman camp? Could halt plans imo, although i'd love to see him run in the race

I think Reve De Sivola would have a decent chance at 20/1 in the World Hurdle if he can stay the trip. 

Really close to Peddlers Cross in the Neptune but twice the price.  Showed his class when winning at Punchestown despite seeing lots of trouble in running, and has speed as he mixed it with Zaynar, Walkon and Starluck over 2m.  Also his form line with Rite of Passage is not bad either!!!!

I think Big Bucks will find it a lot harder this year, with Reve, Quevega, Zaynar and possibly Peddlers Cross and Restless Harry coming up after excellent novice campaigns next year.

Yeah they said something, but have mentioned it before as well. As much as I love Denman and would actually like to see him in it...it spoils the race as an ante-post market, as your working on two sets od weights, one with him and one without :( I hope they say by xmas yes or no :)

Weird Al. Good novice season, would have pushed Weapons Amnesty hard in the RSA imo, seeing that Knockara Beau was as close as he was. Weird Al beat Knocky B fto, receving a fair bit of weight and then bit him easier next time on level terms, showing how much progression he had in him. Only 5 lifetime starts, 2 out of 2 at Cheltenham, going to improve again this year, gotta be a player at a massive price now.

As I've mentioned on other threads, I'm happy to take a chance that Big Buck's will go back over fences and is worth betting at 12s for the Gold Cup.  They schooled him over 'baby fences' shortly before his Aintree run and I'd be amazed if they don't try him at home over regulation fences in his build up to the new season.  If he has learned to jump properly (every chance he has, imo, two years on from his last fencing outing), why stay over hurdles when he would be a short price to dominate the staying 'chase division next season and for maybe two more after that (assuming another superstar does not emerge)?.

A successful re-appearance over fences (what price in the Hennessy off 159?) would see a best priced 5/2 for the Gold Cup imo.

Evenning guys.
One from way out left field for me would be Silver By Nature.
Rated 156 hes some way of Gold Cup class atm but at only 8 years old and with another season like last he wont be far of top class.
We are due a realy heavy going cheltenham week and if the rain were to arrive this one would have a big chance imo.

Sorry to disagree Steeple but for the life of me I cant see Big Bucks makeing a Chaser this term. They may try him again but I would prefer for the horses sake that they didnt.

Well Chief - According to the trainer Restless Harry is likely to go novice chasing this season. I wouldnt be surprised if Reve De Sivola went down the same route either.

great thread - makes me look forward to next winter - for me gets better every year.

What about Nicholls returning Duran Duran horse Simon Le Bon or something like that?

[;)]

SBN might be a good call abbott, if his progress continues.  Until I hear and believe that BB definiely stays hurdling, I wouldnot have a bet in th GC

Big Bucks will definately go for a third World Hurdle next year, may revert to fences the year after - confirmed by Andy Stewart.

In either event I cannot see his jumping improving as for all his class and great natural ability he lacks balance and is heavy footed over fences. His mistakes could be predicted three strides before the fence, and whilst he may become more street wise with age he isn't going to become more athletic or nimble footed. Even his hurdling technique is suspect and he walks through a few. I cannot recall any horse returning from hurdles as a 9-y-o and winning a Gold Cup - but I suppose anything is possible.

The sole reason that Big Bucks went hurdling is that he managed to fall at the last in the Hennessy with the race at his mercy and he had 2 stable companions who were thought superior over fences which they probably were at the time. If he had won that day he might have won a Gold Cup by now. If he was mine, I would take one more Stayers then go chasing with the 2012 Gold Cup in mind.

I don't think he would have won the Hennessy if he hadn't have unseated Sam Thomas, was more than one mistake that held him back and he's never shown himself a capable jumper as Bobby points out.

imperial commander has to be on any list as he and kauto are the only horses to post a figure in excess of 180 last year . kauto has last years blip to explain and needs to confirm what he is capable of but imperials flop at aintree was easy to explain{best fresh, wrong type of track. cheltenham suits him perfectly as he is arhythm horse .the only performance within 7lbs of them was denmans hennesy and gold cup runner up spot. the rest have 15-20lb to find

no way will either of them win the gold cup^

can't wait to see weird al back out, shirley going to start fave for the Paddy Power.

Anyone interested in Willie Mullins mare? ran a stormer in the ryanair and was a little unlucky

Here's a massive longshot to throw in....

Copper Bleu. He was 4th in Go Native's Supreme 2 years ago, won the Jewson handicap chase at Chelts this yeat and I'm pretty sure he will be running over further than 2 and a half in the winter. The horse clearly likes Chelts and you can expect further improvement for the step up to 3 miles.

An Siorrac

Thanks Bobby D - that's useful info

i agree imperial commander will be a very good price at some stage this season and is probably a decnt price now. he is a cheltenham horse simple as that and as the gold cup is ran at cheltenham........

really hope reve de sivola gets a run over 3m hurdles before any chasing decision is made. for me he looks just the type for the world hurdle. (enough pace to be competitive over 2m hurdles, top class novice at 2m5f with rock solid form and if u look at all his races he appears to have stamina to burn).

Got a fancy for the Gold Cup but the horse doesnt inspire me I just think it will be a handicap next season with Kauto past his best and Mullins not bringing his star on quickly enough due to injuries/jockey booking complication with Nicholls etc.

Either way wont be taking early prices for Chelts for the first time in years as the prices are shocking.

Cooldine looked so impressive when winning the Sun Alliance. It just hasn't improved - maybe next year??

Cooldine won a rank awful RSA.

Not sure it was awful FFT, but agree it wasn't great. Like a lot of Beneficials he is beginning to look tripless - certainly cannot see where he is likely to find 31 lengths from, and was comfortably held by Planet Of Sound

reve de sivola will def go for rsa....ive also been thinking bb will go chasing this season,only on the lines that ks and denman could be outta the picture[big statement but i believe they wont be winning].that said id be keen to take bb on but surely the clever way,if u have to play early,is a back 2 lay?

What A Friend has plenty of improvement in him and I think he could be the one.

I was very much in the camp that Denman and Kauto would be out of picture but Nicholls book reminds us that he got See More Business to finish 3rd in a Gold Cup at age of 12.

Suspect neither Denman nor Kauto have as many miles on the clock as See More.

Gotta see how it goes - you'd want to see Denman jump off like he wanted to race and Kauto proving he was over his fall irrespective of age.

Funny old world...Kauto Star was regarded as unbeatable by many going into the Gold Cup.  Like he did 2 years previous he ran way below par and all of a sudden he's finished......again!!!!! Take a brave man to oppose him in any race this coming season IMO he's along way off dead.

As far as a Gold Cup longshot is concerned I'd have to go with Mad Max. When stepping up in distance at Aintree after a good run in the Arkle he gave a strong hint of thngs to come. What I liked about that performance is the way he travelled he always looked comfortable as if he could have gone round again.

Huge step up in class required but there could be a lot of improvement yet to come as he's such a big horse . Time will tell!

Big Bucks will jump a fence this season.

FTM. do u have a link with the nuck williams yard or are u presuming reve de sivola will go over fences? thanks ben

Surely whether Big Bucks jumps a fence this season depends on how PN views the state of play with Kauto?

If Kauto were to win another King George and another crack at the Gold Cup looked likely Big Bucks wouldn't go within a mile of a fence IMO.

bigben,im not linked to the yard but have heard one of the owners repeatedly say that hes tio be aimed at the rsa this season and then the gold cup the following season.agreed funnier things have happened ,and people can change their minds but....itl go for the rsa.

thanks ftm. read somewhere that nick williams fancied going for the world hurdle and i have invested ante post so hope trainer can talk the owners round.

I've been away so long that, I hardly know this place anymore.  I seem to have been out of this game for a long time too. Forgotten most of the horses's names. I remember this one called Denman, though. He was the one who I kept laying for the Grand National, (Mon Momes's year), in an attempt to make a years wages in one race. Then, when he wasn't entered, due to greed, I layed another 30 horses in the same race, but I've forgotten all their names. As a layer it's Denman that I love: The horse has had only 1 win in the last 2 years. Nostalgia and love of the sport have brought me back to Betfair (and in the purple paradise they do very few antepost markets and I am getting hungry again)  Looks to me that Big Bucks could be the one to lay, when it looks like he will stay hurdling.  He will shorten up to an unrealistic price, while at the same time he could be in decline.

Albertas Run a massive price. Has won an RSA Chase and Ryanair Chase and there doesn't sem to be a lot coming from last year's novices. Dangers Imperial Commander, Somersby and Cooldine.