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jamesp
24 Jun 10 10:17
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Date Joined: 05 Jan 02
| Topic/replies: 7,903 | Blogger: jamesp's blog
I haven't backed anything yet for next year's 1000 Guineas, but with July fast approaching and the better fillies starting to appear, I thought I'd start off a new thread.

For what it's worth here's a list of the top fillies so far this season (with their Racing Post Ratings and form figures):

107    Maqaasid (J.H.M.Gosden)        -11
106    Meow (D.Wachman)        -212
105    Memory (R.Hannon)        -11
105    Ladies Are Forever (G.R.Oldroyd)-13
104    Margot Did (M.L.W.Bell)        -112
99    Radharcnafarraige (J.S.Bolger)    -32114
97    Miss Liberty (Mme Pia Brandt)    -4111
97    Tiz My Time (K.McPeek)        -223
95    Emma’s Gift (Miss J.Feilden)    -4315
95    Excello (M.S.Saunders)        -913
95    Purple Glow (J.S.Bolger)    -431236
94    Magic Potion (P.Bary)        -052

The Queen Mary winner Maqaasid is clearly a smart filly but as a daughter of Green Desert must be very unlikely to stay a mile next year.  The fillies that finished close up in the Queen Mary (Meow and Ladies Are Forever) also shape like (and/or are bred to be) sprinters.

The Albany Stakes winner Memory came from some way back at Ascot and shapes as though she will stay at least 7f, but she only had a head to spare at the line over the very promising Margot Did.  The latter is clearly speedy but is out of a mare who stayed 12f, so it's hard to know how far she will stay.  My impression at this stage is that the Albany form isn't especially strong, but we should have a better idea after the Cherry Hinton Stakes at Newmarket.

The only filly generally quoted for next year's Guineas is Memory, recently cut to 14/1 from 20/1 with one leading firm, but still available at 16/1 and 20/1 in places.  At those odds Memory makes very limited appeal.  She should be a 33/1 shot.  Consider some of the early-season fillies I have backed for the Guineas in recent seasons:

In 2004 Damson was available at 20/1 or bigger for the following year's Guineas after her impressive 3l win in the Queen Mary (RPR 110), prior to her odds-on win in the Phoenix Stakes.  In the same year Divine Proportions was 33/1 for the Guineas after her easy 4l win in the Gr.3 Prix du Bois (RPR 111); she was still 25/1 after her win in the Gr.2 Prix Robert Papin in July.

In 2005 Flashy Wings was 33/1 for the 2006 Guineas following her 3l win in the Queen Mary (RPR 110).

In 2006 Sander Camillo was 25/1 for the following year's Guineas after her 1½l win in the Albany Stakes (RPR 104).

In 2007 Natagora was 50/1 for the Guineas after her easy 4l win in the Listed Prix la Fleche (RPR 104) and was still 33/1 after she won the Gr.2 Prix Robert Papin in July (RPR 110).  Listen was 25/1 for the Guineas after her debut win in a Listed race at the end of June (RPR 100), and You'resothrilling was 25/1 after a comfortable win in a Gr.3 race at Naas in early June (RPR 95).

In 2008 Cuis Ghaire was 33/1 for the Guineas following her easy 3½l win in a Gr.3 race at Naas in early June (RPR 105), prior to her Albany win at Royal Ascot.

Last year Lillie Langtry was 25/1 for the Guineas after her comfortable 2½l win in a Gr.3 race at Naas (RPR 99).  Her Ascot conqueror Habaayib was 25/1 for the Guineas after her 1¼l win in the Albany (RPR 105).  Special Duty was 50/1 for the Guineas before her win in the Gr.2 Prix Robert Papin (RPR 115) and 33/1 afterwards.

Based on past seasons, Memory is poor value at 14/1 for the Guineas and does not appeal even at 20/1.  She's yet another example of the way in which bookmakers are squeezing all the value out of the antepost markets.

There are plenty of lightly raced maiden winners (and once-raced maidens) with untapped potential such as Zabeel Park, Seeharn, Gemstone, Googlette, Wild Wind, Kissable, Together, Looking Lovely, Rimth.  More will appear in the coming weeks.  But nothing has really impressed me so far.
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Report Ramruma April 26, 2011 3:30 AM BST
Empowering has precisely no money on the lay side in the new market on here so there must be some doubt about whether she will line up.

Moonlight Cloud has the form in the book but I shall want to see her in the paddock first. It is hard to judge from race videos but does she really look like a Guineas winner? Mind you, who'd have backed Attraction on conformation?
Report unclepuncle April 26, 2011 7:46 AM BST
If I was looking for a couple of outsiders I'd have to go for Maqaasid @ 33/1 even though she will probobaly not quite stay - just on class she is as good as any of these imo and I think it's quite intersting that Gosden is persevering with her at the trip.Confused

Also Zoowraa, assuming she runs, looks a big price @ 30 on here given her undoubted potential - and the stable are bang in form.Blush
Report the lay preacher April 26, 2011 9:36 AM BST
jamesp i have enjoyed reading your threads and you are obviously very knowledgable .just a wee point i would like to bring to your attention.you mention a couple of times about misty for me staying on strongly in the prix marcel boussac in the soft ground at longchamp. i was there that day and the official going first thing in the morning was given as very soft.
although the french did not bother their erse to change it i can assure you that by the time the first race was ran the going was no worse than good by the time misty for me ran i would have said it was on the fast side of good thats why you got fast ground horses like goldikova and wooton basset hacking up.
the temperatures that day were in the 70s and the ground aided by the strong wind that day as well was quickening up by the minute.
the french are always the same their going descriptions are attrocious.
Report jamesp April 26, 2011 11:00 AM BST
Interesting point you make about the going on Arc day.  Stephane Pasquier, who rode Helleborine in the Boussac, reported that the ground was too sticky for his filly, which suggests either that he was just making excuses for the defeat or that the ground had only dried up on top and just beneath the surface, leaving quite a testing and tiring surface.  The winning time for the race (1:42.50) was very slow, compared with recent renewals of the race won by Rosanara (1:37.20), Proportional (1:36.00), Zarkava (1:37.00) and Finsceal Beo (1:34.90).  The winning time for the Arc was also very slow (nine seconds slower than Sea The Stars the previous year and 6½ seconds slower than Zarkava's winning time in 2008).  The 7f races are difficult to assess time-wise, as I'm sure that the '7f' course at Longchamp is actually quite a bit shorter than 7f (the winning times often appear sensationally fast, compared with races run over a mile plus)! 

I grant you that Wootton Bassett's pedigree suggests that he should be at home on good or fast ground and that he might not be best on a softer surface, but you never really know until they race on it for the first time.  Goldikova seems quite versatile ground-wise and the horses that finished close up are all proven on soft ground.  I completely agree with you about the misleading nature of official going descriptions in France, and I also take the point about the warm weather and drying wind, but the evidence suggests to me that the ground was still riding on the soft or 'sticky' side.
Report Figgis April 26, 2011 11:45 AM BST
Agree with Jamesp, all the times indicate soft ground, apart from the 5f straight.
Report Rondetto April 26, 2011 1:00 PM BST
1000 Guineas is never easy ad can be a bit of a lucky dip when it comes to staying. Funny enough I decided to have alook earlier today and came to much the same conclusion as Unclepuncle on Masquaasid.

She showed an excellent turn of foot in her final race but was run out of it in the closing stages looking like she may not have stayed but there's no guarantee that was the reason.

She ran a similar race over a shorter trip and that may be a sign she needed to mature and strengthen up a bit. No idea how she has come on through the winter but if she's strengthened up I could see her going very close.

To be honest I don't even know if John Gosden will run her but if he does I'd say 33/1 is worth a bob or two.

Memory looked out of the ordinary last year and I'm surprised she's not fav but like most of these she's never ran at the trip and may not stay.
Report Ramruma April 26, 2011 3:05 PM BST
Maqaasid has been entered in the Golden Jubilee and King's Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot, which suggests connections think she is a sprinter. She is also in the Coronation Stakes though.
Report sintonian April 26, 2011 3:14 PM BST
Richards Hills said he hoped she would run very well the other day on RUK, fwiw, so presumably she runs.
Report mythical prince April 27, 2011 3:48 AM BST
mordin might like nova hawk, but he seems to like the jolly just as much:

MOONLIGHT CLOUD LOOKS TOUGH TO BEAT IN 1000 GUINEAS

In the last twenty renewals of the Prix Imprudence there have been five fillies that clocked a faster time than the colts in the Prix Djebel on the same card. All four that achieved the feat before MOONLIGHT CLOUD (38) this year would have gone on to win a Group 1 but for Coupe de Genie losing the Guineas by a half length and Joanna going under by a neck in the Maurice de Gheest.

Moonlight Cloud certainly looked like a Group 1 horse when winning this year's renewal. She set a reasonable pace But it was the astonishing way she picked up in the last two furlongs that made her performance exceptional. She covered the last quarter mile 1.1 seconds faster than the colts in the Prix Djebel and 1.5 seconds quicker than they went in the fastest of the two six furlong handicaps on the card.

Last year Moonlight Cloud produced two astonishing performances on her first couple of starts, showing faster leg speed than I can recall seeing any horse produce when kicking into overdrive in the closing stages. She probably got stuck in the mud and may not have been fresh enough when running fourth to colts in the Group 1 Jean Luc Lagardere at the Arc meeting.

To be honest I thought that there was a major chance that Moonlight Cloud wouldn't train on because she wasn't that big as a two year old. In addition I wondered if she'd retain that freakish turn of foot if she strengthened up and matured over the Winter. It turns out she's grown quite a bit and can still produce the same insane acceleration.

Seeing how strongly she was running at the finish of this seven furlong race I find it hard to argue that Moonlight Cloud won't last the mile of the Guineas. As long as she gets fast ground for that race I'd see her as very much the one they all have to beat.

Whether or not she stays the mile in the Guineas (and I think she will) it would be very interesting to see Moonlight Cloud given a shot at one of the big sprints later on in the season. She has such an abundance of speed I can easily see her doing very well in such contests.
Report sintonian April 28, 2011 9:25 AM BST
Misty For Me 7/2 a place.
Report Pinza April 28, 2011 6:39 PM BST
Moonlight Cloud has every chance as the French trial winners come out quite well in past winners.

Can’t recall what the negative was but probably that it ran ALL it’s races at 7f. Two past winners have managed to buck that trend (Lahan & Ghanaati) but both were lightly raced with 3 and 2 runs.

Head (Fr)stable has won 1000 five times since 1982 and all ran win or placed in 7f trial. Three of those had won at Nmkt. Most of the winners had 5 or 6 runs prior to race, except for Ravinella (4/5fav) in 1988. Four of the winners went to a Group next race after their maiden win, and all won or placed on that run.

You can probably count Moonlight Cloud in that category as it finished 4th in Grp 1 race, but on her second race after maiden win – similar to Ma Biche but she won her Group 1 race.

All but one of the Head stable winners won over varying distances as 2yo except Ma Biche who won at 6f but won her trial over 7f.

If she had won at Nmkt or won over another distance she would fit perfectly
Report Pinza April 28, 2011 6:40 PM BST
All previous 8f runners as 2yo who won 1000 had won or placed in Group race at that distance. That only brings in Immortal Verse and Misty For Me this year.

O’Brien stable has only won it once (Virginia Waters) but the going was Good/firm and MFM won the Moyglare when Memory was 6th (Evs fav).
The Moyglare is not a good guide to 1000 winners with only Sayyedati winning 1993 but that had won two group one races, like Misty For Me
Report Dark Destroyer April 28, 2011 6:51 PM BST
Pinza

Aren't you stretching it a bit using Criquette's stats as an indication of how her brother's horse will fare? I think its 4 wins (Ma Biche, Ravinella, Hatoof & SD)
Report zilzal1 April 28, 2011 6:59 PM BST
Cant really get my head around this race, may end up leaving it totally alone as there is imho no real angle for the race as i see it, i could pick six of the runners and still not get the winner
Report sintonian April 28, 2011 9:56 PM BST
Joseph Obrien confirmed he will be riding Empowring on Sunday, for what it's worth. I think they are running all three.
Report unclepuncle April 30, 2011 5:40 PM BST
The way Frankel won the Guineas and with the front runner winning the Palace House stakes must be positives for Hooray and Moonlight Cloud.

I still like Maqaasid at 38 and even though there are obvious stamina doubts I have had a bit more on. A really classy fast filly who travels sweetly (even in the Cheveley Park she was cruising 2f out), stable in good form today too. Reckon it could trade a lot shorter in runningBlush
Report MrDinos April 30, 2011 8:41 PM BST
I have to agree with you uncle, on fast ground front runners and horses that run close to the pace seem to do very well at Newmarket. Attraction and Natagora spring to mind also Ghanaati was up in the van when she won. Low to middle draw looks the place to be as well.

In the fillies classic speed horses have done well over the years and I think you are spot on about Maqaasid, I love her fast ground pedigree and John Gosden stated she wasn't cherry ripe in the Nell Gwyn, she still travelled the best and the penalty she was carrying probably didn't help matters either.

Another one I like is Cape Dollar, she was given a sympathetic ride in the Fred Darling by Ryan Moore, only giving her one tap with the persuader! Perfect Tribute and Aneedah didn't run well in that race but ran well next time at Ascot finishing 1st and 2nd in front of Libranno (finished second to Native Khan in the Craven). 50-1 looked too big so backed her EW as well. She's probably not good enough but her pedigree screams fast ground and that made my mind up.

I have to say this has been a great thread to read, I've had some good results over the years in this race and it's one I always look forward to. Good luck with all your bets in a very open looking race.
Report jamesp April 30, 2011 11:12 PM BST
With 19 runners in a very open race it's 5/1 the field, which is more or less what I was expecting after the trials.  I'll be surprised if there is a sustained gamble on anything tomorrow. 

The ground seems to have gone against Laughing Lashes (weak in the market) and the vibes don't seem too good for Misty For Me.  I'll be surprised if I Love Me proves good enough (she needs to improve markedly on her juvenile form last season) and the same comment applies to Cape Dollar (disappointing in her trial) and Make A Dance (can she really be another Ghanaati? I somehow doubt it).  Empowering is not good enough, Blue Bunting will be too slow (needs a longer trip), Together has had numerous chances but has yet to show she's got either the speed or the class to win a Guineas.  I can't give any realistic chance to the outsiders Show Rainbow, The Shrew and Elshabakiya.  Barefoot Lady won a substandard Nell Gwyn and is reportedly in great form, but there was nothing in her form last year to suggest she would be anywhere near classic-winning standard.  Maqaasid has prospects of reversing the Nell Gwyn form with Barefoot Lady and remains an interesting prospect on fast ground, but she still hasn't achieved enough in five races to suggest she's up to winning this (even allowing for the stamina doubts).  Nova Hawk has been running on heavy ground and was impressive last time out, but she's likely to struggle on the much faster ground.

That leaves the front four in the betting (Moonlight Cloud, Memory, Hooray and Havant).  Some of Stoute's horses have been running poorly of late, which is a concern, and it wouldn't surprise me if Havant, who has a middle distance pedigree, will end up having to try to make up ground on speedier fillies who may not be stopping in the final furlong.  Hooray is the best filly in the race, based on last autumn's form, and must have a great chance if she gets the trip (the fast ground will help her in that respect): she probably doesn't need to improve on her Cheveley Park Stakes performance to win this.  The vibes are very positive concerning Memory and it's hard not to be enthused by the confidence of trainer and jockey.  She should get the mile and goes well on fast ground.  Moonlight Cloud showed her well-being in the Prix Imprudence, once again showing the brilliant acceleration (albeit off a slow pace) she showed last year.  She is very highly regarded and the only slight doubt is her ability to get the mile off a true pace (which seems guaranteed with a large field of runners).

It's an open-looking race, and there may be traffic problems with 19 runners spread across the track, but the speed fillies should dominate and I'll be a bit surprised if the winner doesn't come from the first three in the market (Memory, Hooray or Moonlight Cloud).  The betting market, on this occasion, looks to have got it about right.

Good luck everyone.
Report jamesp April 30, 2011 11:21 PM BST
I omitted to mention Immortal Verse, who, although unlucky on her reappearance this season, looks outclassed (she was easily swept aside by Helleborine in a Group 3 last year).
Report jamesp May 1, 2011 8:44 AM BST
Laughing Lashes is a massive drifter (out to 26).  Hooray continues to shorten (she is the Price wise selection in today's Racing Post).
Report sintonian May 1, 2011 8:47 AM BST
Laughing Lashes incredibly weak ... 25/1 here.
Report sintonian May 1, 2011 8:48 AM BST
Laugh

Yep. Pathwork was 11/1 before the off yesterday in the 2000, mid-week he was 13/2.
Report unclepuncle May 1, 2011 9:56 AM BST
Maybe Jessie should stick to the jumpers?
Report roobuck May 1, 2011 10:20 AM BST
This has been a terrific thread to read, lots of very good comments and observations.

Result......I haven't got a clue. Will throw a few quid at I Love Me for some interest in the race, but too many question marks at front of market to form a strong opinion.

Good luck to all
Report sintonian May 1, 2011 10:37 AM BST
tbh Uncle, I didnt quite understand the hype with Pathfork anyway. The form of his races was decent but he never looked impressive,imo.

The past few weeks all Jessie horses have been running very well over Jumps so no reason why LL should not go well today, people just dont seem to fancy her.

Just looking back at I Love Me, although she needs to improve, her defeats have been on Soft and Good to Soft, being by Cape Cross she'll appreciate the better ground today.

A couple of bookies have gone 4 places, so had a few more quid eachway on Empowering. I just have the feeling she'll go well.

gl y'all!
Report cruise d May 1, 2011 1:29 PM BST
Harrington's yard dont seem to back their runners though do they? Either that or they don't know when they are at their best. Oscars Well was 7/1 when it destroyed Zaidpour at Leopardstown in Feb for example.

I think that Laughing Lashes is cracking value now and have had a few quid on at 25s to win. They were a lot more glowing about her than Pathfork from what I've read. There is every chance she can improve back past Misty For Me given their respective profiles as others have eluded to before. At 25s compared with Misty at at 11.5 ish it's a bit of a no brainer to me. LL drifting off the back of Pathfork's run has really made the value IMO. Pathfork beat the likes of Roderic O'Conner easily yesterday yet there is no drift for the O'brien runner. Just because LL is from an unfashionable stable and Pathfork only finished mid div in a freakish Guineas yesterday where the form of anything bar probably the front 3 is pretty worthless has meant the price has become massive. LL has no less chance than she did before yesterdays 2000 and therefore the price has become worthwile IMO.

My small AP bets on the Channon non runners came to nothing so I'm afraid I have to come clean and say that I've jumped on the Moonlight Cloud band wagon after the value has gone[smiley:crazy]. My only bets are Moonlight Cloud at 6.8, LL at 25 and Elshabakiya to place at 23.

I think the Brittain runner could be todays Dubawi Gold. She was slowly away in the Nell Gwynn and shaped as though the stiffer test would suit. She ran well in her run previously when just touched off by Dubawi Gold. I would rather back her to place at 23 than the likes of Barefoot Lady to win at the same sort of price. Everyone said that last years Nell Gwynn was a poor renewal but Jaquelins Quest came out and ran a blinder in the 1000 having finished 7th in the Nell Gwynn. I think people can easily discount the form of the trials too easily and with that in mind 23 to place on a horse with reasonable form that 2 runs back was a head behind the runner up in yesterdays 2000 makes her a solid place bet IMO.
Report Graeme83 May 1, 2011 2:46 PM BST
Too many users are readily writing off horses too easily here. Misty for me isn't joined at the hip with Rod O'Connor. I don't know who said she hasn't grown. Yesterday someone said that O'Brien thinks ROC will win 4 group 1s, so make of these comments what you will. I don't think Barefoot Lady would be supplemented for a good few bob if they thought she won a weak race. Frankel won the Greenham before the guineas. The same applies to Havant. I don't think she would be here if the ground and distance was such an issue as people think it is.
Report secretgambler May 1, 2011 2:57 PM BST
I expect Blue Bunting to run a big race at the prices and Skybet 4 places 1/4 odds at 33/1 looks fair value - open race.
Report the lay preacher May 1, 2011 3:16 PM BST
misty for me or hooray.
fast ground no problem for both of them.
Report geoff m May 1, 2011 3:21 PM BST
GREAT CALL SECRET
Report the lay preacher May 1, 2011 3:21 PM BST
nice one secret .well done.
Report unclepuncle May 1, 2011 3:23 PM BST
Maqaasid ran exactly as I expected, classiest horse in the race but simply didn't stay - I left a lay bet at the off at 5/1 so at least got my stake back.

Well done secrtegambler - good call.
Report PHS May 1, 2011 3:24 PM BST
Ha ha. Last poster finds the winner, after 8mths on the go. WD secret.
Report Figgis May 1, 2011 3:25 PM BST
Great shout, secretgambler.
Report unclepuncle May 1, 2011 3:25 PM BST
Yep - just goes to show how pointelss all the antepost conjecture is reallyCry. Still love it thoughSilly
Report zilzal1 May 1, 2011 3:26 PM BST
Great shout Secret
Report ilikewavingatbuses May 1, 2011 3:26 PM BST
wd sgHappy

impossibe to quantify the how much horses have improved eh. think im gonna focus entirely on laying. huge run from together.
Report zilzal1 May 1, 2011 3:30 PM BST
The 1st three could be better at other distances as well!!!
Report Dark Destroyer May 1, 2011 3:31 PM BST
WD Secret. (I think that just about covers the winners).

Everybody else, many thanks for making this a thoroughly enjoyable thread for the past 10 months. I'm already looking forward to next year.
Report eric_morris May 1, 2011 3:34 PM BST
Nice call secretgambler, 600 quid down here not a bad result combined with yesterday Moonlight was cut across immediately coming out of the stalls by Cape Dollar writing was on the wall for her straight away.

This is why I put less effort in with the less predictable fillies than the colts.
Report sintonian May 1, 2011 3:38 PM BST
well done Secret. Nice winner too.

Most of us took a good licking on that race Cry
Report secretgambler May 1, 2011 3:39 PM BST
Cheers folks, can't see why it was so big a price giving the breeding, trainer and jockey combo so was a very welcome return..all about the value...ignore the hype !
Report sintonian May 1, 2011 3:40 PM BST
how do you calculate a £600 loss eric when you have already confessed this .. no wonder you get stick on here.


eric_morris
Date Joined: 27 Jun 10
Add contact | Send message When: 24 Apr 11 19:44 Joined: Date Joined: 27 Jun 10 | Topic/replies: 3,053 | Blogger: eric_morris's blog
What is the total stake in your 1000 Guineas book now JamesP, mine is 5k ?
Report ilikewavingatbuses May 1, 2011 3:41 PM BST
i think hes mixing his 'bet' up with jamesp.Laugh
Report ilikewavingatbuses May 1, 2011 3:44 PM BST
sorry about ur loss james btw.
Report sintonian May 1, 2011 4:14 PM BST
The drift on Laughing Lashes certainly was not without reason. She finished 17th, one place in-front of Memory who was reluctant to race.

Reckon Memory may even be retired ??
Report corbiewood May 1, 2011 4:33 PM BST
eric_morris     Joined: 27 Jun 10
Replies: 3053 01 May 11 15:34 
Nice call secretgambler, 600 quid down here not a bad result combined with yesterday Moonlight was cut across immediately coming out of the stalls by Cape Dollar writing was on the wall for her straight away.

This is why I put less effort in with the less predictable fillies than the colts.



A truly stunning post.
Report sintonian May 1, 2011 6:14 PM BST
You will not find anyone more deluded than ''our'' Eric, Corbie.
Report jamesp May 1, 2011 6:16 PM BST
Well, what an extraordinary result - just goes to show that horses can make a monkey out of anyone!  Even the trainer Mahmood Al Zarooni admitted afterwards that he got his filly wrong, having thought that she would need a longer trip and softer ground.  I shared that opinion and thought she would be too slow to make an impact today.  Doh![:o]  And to think that she was really only there because of the injury to White Moonstone. 

My prediction that one of the 'speed' fillies would prevail was well wide of the mark.  It looked as though Moonlight Cloud failed to see out the mile.  Hooray certainly didn't get the trip.  Memory didn't even consent to start.  Maqaasid fared best of the speedier fillies and has clearly trained on very well.  Havant stayed on but needs a longer trip.  The winning time was disappointingly slow (mainly, I suspect, due to the head wind) and several of the runners took a keen hold, which didn't help their chances.  All told, a puzzling result and the form of a number of the beaten fillies should not be taken too literally.

I made a loss on the race, but it would have been even worse if Together had held on (O'Brien's filly went completely unbacked by me, but I did have bits and pieces on the winner in the last week or so, including £20 at 250 on 20 April - sorry, flagrant 'aftertiming', but I never expected her to win!).  If Together had won, I would probably have given up antepost betting for good!  Oh well, back to the drawing board for most of us.  The only positive to take from the race, for trends followers, is that once again the race has fallen to a filly with pattern race form as a juvenile (albeit just a Listed race).

Remarkable tipping by secretgambler - very well done!
Report sintonian May 1, 2011 6:40 PM BST
Together was the only selection I got right all weekend. Backed her at 60's on here,  posted so a few weeks on this thread that she had a very similar 2yo campaign to Lilly Langtry.

Was hoping she would hang on but got outstayed so made a loss also.
Report jamesp May 1, 2011 7:55 PM BST
Bad luck, sintonian - I'd forgotten that you'd backed Together.  I must say, I can't remember the last time a filly ran over 10f prior to running in the Guineas - a very strange preparation, but I dare say it won't be the last time it happens (with these big sales race pots up for grabs in the spring).  Together is a very hard filly to weigh up - she was always well regarded last year and ran well in the Fillies' Mile, but at other times looked below classic standard and threw away her chance in a couple of races by veering across the course. 

Perhaps the Fillies' Mile form was the best on offer last season after all - White Moonstone beat Together by a neck, with Theyskens' Theory (who had beaten Blue Bunting by five lengths in a maiden) a further 1¼ lengths away in third.  A question of 'what if', as far as White Moonstone is concerned!  (She'd have loved the fast ground too!)
Report secretgambler May 1, 2011 9:04 PM BST
Cheers James - to be honest I think 'form' is often over-rated and think people get too bogged down in form lines, collateral form etc...especially 2yo form as it often means nothing or little when they grow into 3yo's and really start to develop as racehorses. When I heard the comments about the strong headwind and saw the first few times and thought about how Hooray would tear off in front I felt it would fall to a 'staying' type filly, all the stats were in her favour and I think Zarooni is a superb talent from what I have seen so far, makes Suroor look like a selling plater and when Frankie and/or Barza is on board you have to take a closer look and the pedigree was all right for today. The final piece was the price, 33/1 was just huge.
Report jair1970 May 1, 2011 9:06 PM BST
What's happened to Theysken's Theory anyway?  My first bet that!

A quick look at Blue Bunting's form gives some hope for Ela's Diamond who is one of my Oaks possibles but apart from that the whole result was a bit left field.

I guess I was right to be down on Memory, but haven't really learnt if she's the horse she looked last year, I suspected not... time will tell.
Both pleased and disappointed with Nova Hawk:  Ran well but faded for 4th, Moonlight Cloud musn't be a miler, nor Hooray and overall the race is a loser.  Hey ho.  It was fun while it lasted.

As a postscript, I believe earlier on this thread I wrote a long opinion piece on Godolphin maybe having found the key to the Classics, mainly through appointing Al Zarooni and having Mark Johnston tending many of their string amongst other things.  And so it came to pass!  Did I back Blue Bunting?  Did I heck!

A final word for Eric, who used the very same Godolphin piece in a deleted thread to run me down!  Low blow padre, low blow...
Report Graeme83 May 1, 2011 9:26 PM BST
Good call SG. She looks a real nice Oaks prospect. Too short in price for me though at this stage.
Report jamesp May 1, 2011 9:31 PM BST
The effect of a headwind should certainly not be underestimated, it can turn the form inside out.  But I'm interested in your comment, secretgambler, that "all the stats were in her favour".  When I was doing a final check on the declared runners I couldn't find any meaningful stats in her favour at all.  Which stats drew your attention?
Report secretgambler May 1, 2011 9:36 PM BST
Not the usual stats to be found online James...when I ran the traditional trends both Hooray and Moonlight Cloud were prominent but I prefer a value-based approach and although I confess to backing one of those two win my main bet was Blue Bunting because largely of conditions but also the trainer, jockey and sire statistics that I use pointed to her being out of whack compared to her best price available. I run a few 'alternative stats' based on breeding, trainer and jockey from unique angles and then form a 'book'. I then compare the estimated Prob/Odds and she just jumped out. Then when the comments came in about the headwind and the times from the previous races I felt stamina would be required espcially with so much early pace on so it just jumped out. Quite lucky really but it's important I feel to look for unique angles and value for long-term profits and just worked out well today.
Report Dark Destroyer May 2, 2011 8:11 AM BST
This was a tough one, places as well as the winner. However there is no reason to throw the baby out etc etc for future years.

I still believe this is the best Classic for an AP book and will be looking to start my 2012 version in the next month or so using the same combination of my own immediate post-race opinions ( Memory Laugh  ), taking account of posters I respect ( Helleborine Cry  ) and maybe hoping for a bit of good fortune on the day [;)]
Report bosra shame May 2, 2011 8:38 AM BST
Hope this doesn't sound too negative ...dress it up how you want lads but this was a shock result. The winner was no more than useful as a juvenile and could never have been considered ante post for the Guineas.

The result was particularly galling for me ( having backed White Moonstone at 25/1 downwards)to watch the stable second string get up and beat a filly WM had beaten easily enough in the Fillies Mile and on a line through Theyskens Theory she also had the measure of the winner.

With the unpredictable spring weather, track watering, draw bias,long season with bigger targets and bookmakers general tightening of odds, ante post betting on the 1000 is becoming every year less and less appealing and harder to get an edge. This has been an excellent thread with some knowledgeable people spouting some good stuff - yet all of us have lost on this race. Says it all really.
Report sintonian May 2, 2011 9:03 AM BST
Jair, now we know why they did not go for a trial with Memory.

Richard Hughes post-race comments suggest they had concerns about her reluctance, and if she did that in a trial, then they could not have raced in the Guineas.
Report MrDinos May 2, 2011 9:56 AM BST
Congratulations to secretgambler, I didn't see that one coming!!! Godolphin look like they have got a good bunch of fillies this year and with Zarooni looking a tip top trainer it could be a good year for him.

I thought Maqaasid ran an absolute blinder and once again travelled the best until coming out of the dip. I think her year could pan out like Lady Of The Desert's did last year, give it another crack over 8f and then go back to 6f where she will probably do better. Haydock Sprint Cup in September looks a good bet if the ground is Good to Firm. I know it's a long way off but to me looks the ideal race for her, the Golden Jubilee isn't a good stats race for fillies and Frankel might turn up in the July Cup so thats a big no as well.

In the end I was glad to make a small profit on the race.
Report jair1970 May 2, 2011 10:26 AM BST
Interesting one that Sint.

Ironically, she may well have the ability, may well have been the best horse in the race.  It's just she's gone sour!

What backers would have given for that knowledge.   Show that teh Hannon trial method is sound.  Dubawi Gold, an unconsidered type, runs a blinder after getting fit on course, Memory is absent and runs a shocker.
Report the bairn May 2, 2011 12:31 PM BST
i'm absolutely numb. cheersSad
Report eric_morris May 2, 2011 12:50 PM BST
I said my book wouldnt remain that way are you th1ck. I dont arb well in advance of antepost but will carry the risk near to the day unless I think there could be a non runner due to ground (Havant) or lack of balls (Frankel) then tweak my book nearer the time. The reason I made a 636 loss is I messed up my account funds or I would have been level. I tweaked my book on the 1000 mainly on the day and day before this season. This is a small loss for me nice of you to be concerned though. I made a lot more on Frankel the Guineas and my Derby book remains good with others I have shortening dramatically while Frankel has lengthened.

The fillies have shown over the years to be worth less effort than the colts and am saying that having backed Special Duty last season.

Good luck to the person(s) who got the pin in the right place this one.
Report jair1970 May 2, 2011 12:59 PM BST
The reason I made a 636 loss is I messed up my account funds

Bit of an oversight for a pro.

Backing the winner would have helped too. Laugh
Report sintonian May 2, 2011 1:08 PM BST
[:D]
Report corbiewood May 2, 2011 1:15 PM BST
eric_morris     02 May 11 12:50 
I said my book wouldnt remain that way are you th1ck. I dont arb well in advance of antepost but will carry the risk near to the day unless I think there could be a non runner due to ground (Havant) or lack of balls (Frankel) then tweak my book nearer the time. The reason I made a 636 loss is I messed up my account funds or I would have been level. I tweaked my book on the 1000 mainly on the day and day before this season. This is a small loss for me nice of you to be concerned though. I made a lot more on Frankel the Guineas and my Derby book remains good with others I have shortening dramatically while Frankel has lengthened.

The fillies have shown over the years to be worth less effort than the colts and am saying that having backed Special Duty last season.

Good luck to the person(s) who got the pin in the right place this one.


The above statement would have psychology students frothing at the mouth.
Report Augustine May 2, 2011 1:26 PM BST
"Tweak."

Textbook.
Report geoff m May 2, 2011 1:32 PM BST
The reason I made a 636 loss is I messed up my account funds or I would have been level.

Thats a belter.



Its a bit like if we hadnt backed a loser but the winner wed have shown a profit.
Unbelivable stuff from the ante post "messiah"
Phil "The Power" Taylor is a bit worried hes heard Erics throwing more darts @ board than he does!
Report secretgambler May 2, 2011 1:57 PM BST
Eric Morris - "Good luck to the person(s) who got the pin in the right place this one. "

Prefer a pin to a full quiver of arrows any day of the week :-) There of course was no pin, there was however a full blown analysis taking conditions on the day into account, how the race might be run with strong stats in her favour both on breeding and trainer/jockey. Some people may say it couldn't be found on form and they may well be right although the clues were actually all there if you look in the right areas but a value approach allayed to a contrarian analysis has never sat well with so-called form 'students' but I wouldn't have it any other way.
Report ilikewavingatbuses May 2, 2011 2:58 PM BST
ericLaugh biggest forum clown. just change your name and move on!
Report unclepuncle May 2, 2011 7:11 PM BST
Eric = ArberShocked

I thought Arbing was the work of the devil and only done by spineless idiots like myself - talk about the pot calling the kettle blackCryCryCry

I happily admit to being an arber and have no shame in doing so. Since the introduction of Betfair I base a lot of my betting strategy, espeically bigger bets, on  being confident the price will go lower either before or during the race, so I can lay off for a free bet or profit - see my Maqaasid posts (said she would trade shorter in running  - think 1.7 was the lowest price matched).
Report eric_morris May 3, 2011 9:02 PM BST
Arbing is laying off as soon as you can it isnt holding the risk until the race then tweaking your book. I rarely lay off even come the day. uncle puncle will lay off witihn a minute of putting the phone down after placing his bets.

I'll try to be as kind as Ican here secretgambler ... if you think this analysis will help you win on average antepost you can dream on lad. It is all about intuition, technique and maths. It isnt about arrows the first one has to hit or you are fooked. To have Frankel first in your Derby book was essential even though connections desperately chickened out of making that horse an all-time great. He was my first and allowed me to take that value and spread it once I decided they didnt have the balls to run him. If you are a standard punter like sintonian, uncle puncle, ilikewavinatloonybuses, zilzal1, gerard, geoff m, jair1970 you wouldnt be able to do this consistently and so will be poor at backing therefore resorting to laying or arbing W1seprice selections and getting closed down eventually (cryoftruth comes to mind).

Technique is massively important and can only come with experience helping you to decide what technique to use bearing in mind how to win, get on in future and this takes years to decide your technique for the specific race and conditions.

You can have as many goes at me as you want but none of you will ever be in the same league as me as a long range antepost backer on average.
Report eric_morris May 3, 2011 9:11 PM BST
Had to laugh when I read think it was P Healey in the RPost about betting he is fairly high up there. Totaly clueless what a mug punter he must be and gets paid professionally for spouting such inexperienced c@ck.  You only have to look at the antepost selections in the RPost and that is with the benefit of inside information, Watts selections are beyond a joke. W1seprice chose Picture Editor the Derby early he is pretty useless long range, benefitting short range from more recent info closer to the race giving him a much better strike rate. He also had Roderic OConnor the Guineas wtf was that and was desperate for Frankel to not run in the Derby printed at every opportunity he thought he would not stay. If Frankel had ran he'd have stuffed W1seprice and his Picture Editor selection alright.
Report eric_morris May 3, 2011 9:23 PM BST
Incidentally saw Freddie Head complaining saying he was disgusted re the start of the 1000 Guineas ... Moonlight Cloud losing a lot of ground, he wasnt wrong was he think a few of the jockeys were waiting for that last horse to be loaded when the stalls opened. Horses left in the stalls for ages and a general farce best forgotten considering all the prep connections put into these horses to royally fook it up before they even left the stalls.
Report jair1970 May 3, 2011 9:27 PM BST
once I decided they didnt have the balls to run him

So that was some months after much of the forum had told you it wasn't going to happen.

Eric's 1000 Guineas techinique:

'Moonlight Cloud won a trial, I think i'll back her'
'Memory looked good in the summer, think i'll back her'
'Havant got a positive write up in the Racing Post, think i'll back her'

Years of experience to get to that level.

Great to have you back Eric!
Report eric_morris May 3, 2011 9:32 PM BST
I have a specific technique for the 1000 Guineas which is spot on for several reasons I wont reveal on here. Only one is the fillies these days are harder to predict long range than they used to be whereas the colts are not.
Report jair1970 May 3, 2011 9:35 PM BST
As far as I can tell your technique seems to involve attempting to foretell the favourites in a race and getting them in your book at larger prices.

Hardly ground breaking, and falls apart completely when a non-favoured horse wins.

Tell me i'm wrong
Report secretgambler May 3, 2011 9:38 PM BST
LOL @ eric morris...is this joker always like this ? So many of your posts give yourself a way of being a fantasist pure and simple, Walter Mitty had nothing on you...it must be some boring life you have their son. I can see why you endear yourself so well to the forum, what a joker you really are. I don't back antepost, it's a mugs game. Why back ante-post when there is plenty of value about in the week or so or even on teh day of the race. I prefer to know I am going to get a run for my money, you see it's all about maximising ROI, something you should try. Last year my only 2000 Guineas bet was Makfi at 75's on the day of the Guineas, this year I backed Native Khan e/w at 50/1 before the Craven and I backed Blue Bunting at 33/1 on the morning of the race. I think we can safely say that I am definitely 'not' in the same league as you...lol. You see I make a substantial living at this game and don't need to make up all kind of stories and backtracking to try to cover my @rse if things go wrong...if I back a 33/1 shot and it loses then so be it, I know the next big price winner is just around the corner...word of advice son...don't play with the big boys until you know what you are doing. You keep loading up your ante-post machine gun and firing wildly I'll just use the one bullet in the chamber waiting for the target to be in range. Now, consider yourself blocked so the big boys can have a proper discussion Laugh
Report eric_morris May 3, 2011 9:39 PM BST
Value on day of race .. oh dear .. next.
Report eric_morris May 3, 2011 9:44 PM BST
You need to be able to pick the winner of antepost races well in advance for best rewards which means having an eye for extra special qualities extrapolated over the coming months. If the horse is complicated because connections are playing games re announcements or other reasons you need to read these and be able to shift value around, see through the bullsh1t. The bottom line is you need to be good at spotting long range winners of antepost races, they may be fav as with Frankel the Guineas or they may not as with Captain Chris the Arkle but normally they will be shorter than you took obviously.
Report jair1970 May 3, 2011 9:45 PM BST
So i'm right, thought so.

Tell us your Derby book, Eric.
Report eric_morris May 3, 2011 9:47 PM BST
LaughLaughLaugh wtf is secretgambler doing on the antepost forum? Failed antepost gambler gets one pin job on Guineas right after looking in here to try and learn how to do it thenthe world is his oyster. lmfao.
Report eric_morris May 3, 2011 9:50 PM BST
No you are not right.
Report eric_morris May 3, 2011 10:01 PM BST
secretgambler has 20quid on Makfi no doubt amongst other guesses in last years Guineas. His bet this year also suggests he is not at all with the big boys but is a small time punter looking to place tenners to win hundreds with his pin. Not the kind of person to have the courage to back his own judgement to five figures up to a year before the race ... have to hand it to him though those last few posts were hilarious. Thank god he's blocked me saves talking to that mug on here.
Report eric_morris May 3, 2011 10:57 PM BST
So what is the point in the 1000 antepost with reduced value in prices and the farce of the draw last year and the farce of the stalls this? Not the best antepost race by far to put your effort into.
Report jair1970 May 3, 2011 11:26 PM BST
That's a pretty dumb statement.

How can you account for watering policies or withdrawn horses and starting delays in ante-post betting?
Answer? You can't.
By following your logic, you'd never back a fast ground horse ante-post for fear of soft ground and so on.
By pure chance, the 1000 Guineas has been affected by extraneous factors 2 years in a row, and I personally don't think Mr Head and Bonilla's complaints carry much weight this year beyond sour grapes.  These things happen and could do in any race on any course.

You might as well argue what's the point backing in this year's 2000 Guineas cos Frankel was going to win, and you probably will.
Report geoff m May 4, 2011 12:35 AM BST
Eric throws more darts ante post than Phil Taylor does in a week.
Report ilikewavingatbuses May 4, 2011 1:31 AM BST
eric_morris Joined: 27 Jun 10
Replies: 3067 24 Apr 11 19:44 
What is the total stake in your 1000 Guineas book now JamesP, mine is 5k ?



stakes '5k' and still misses the winner and still comes out with just 600 loss[smiley:crazy]Laugh





and as for frankel, thats even worse, the horse of the century who he says he sasnt backed for the guineas(in sept: by then he was about 7/4, hes totally missed the boat)and THEN advocates backing him for the derby where isnt even going to get a run, which he was told months ago by me and others he wouldnt even runLaugh

this must be the worst antepost gambler of all timeLaugh

i thought it was about seeing in to the future eric and u only 'backed' him for derby at big prices and didnt for the guineasLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh


what a fookin wallyLaugh
Report secretgambler May 4, 2011 3:21 AM BST
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walter_Mitty

"an ordinary, often ineffectual person who indulges in fantastic daydreams of personal triumphs"

Sums it up I think
Report unclepuncle May 4, 2011 9:01 AM BST
Eric - for the record I laid off my bet on Moonlight Cloud about 3 minutes before the off, and I only left a lay bet in running on Maqassid so ifI'd been wrong and she hadn't traded short I wouldn't have even got matched.

I really think we need to adopt the American policy like with Osama - instead of allowing this deluded crazy loon the chance to defend himself at a trial we should just shoot Eric in the head and dump his body at seaLaughLaugh
Report unclepuncle May 4, 2011 9:03 AM BST
So he stakes £5k on all the obvious horses, waiting for positive vibes or trial wins therefore misisng the juicy prices, still fails to even get a place and yet we are all doing it wrong - please can someone bring on the men with the white coatsCry
Report geoff m May 4, 2011 10:24 AM BST
So if you bet a horse & lay off straight away its arbing.
But if you hold on to the day of the race(carrying the risk hardly risk when you have enough darts to tranquilise an elephant) & lay it off it isnt.

Unbelievable.
Hes gutted secretgambler with 1 arrow hits the bullseye whilst he had a quiver full of arrers & hit sweet f.a
Would have broke even mind if he handt scrwd his account funds up.
Ultimate pro not
Comedy Gold  yes.
Uncle please dont take the Osama route it aint funny (Eric is)
Report Stake & Chips May 4, 2011 11:38 AM BST
I'm sure Eric is also counting all the doubles he had running onto his 1000 Guineas portfolio in the final £600 loss...a pretty good achievement to escape so luckily imo...
Report eric_morris May 4, 2011 5:17 PM BST
Didn't have any doubles involving the 1000.
Report sintonian May 4, 2011 5:57 PM BST
Des Pot.

Hello Everyone. [smiley:crazy]
Report Arsene May 5, 2011 1:54 PM BST
Not sure whether anyone would want to take the risk, but I'm told that Memory will definitely go for the French 1000 Guineas after going through the stalls at home.
Report sintonian May 5, 2011 3:30 PM BST
cheers Arsene.

I agree, best watched next time imo. Shades of Sariska and it's two poor runs in a row now if you include Ireland.
Report sintonian May 14, 2011 12:38 PM BST
Fascintaing how Helleborine goes tommorrow. Why there is no betting yet ?
Report Graeme83 May 14, 2011 2:29 PM BST
^^ There is. Just go to horse racing and then France.
Report jamesp May 15, 2011 12:34 AM BST
I was expecting Helleborine to be favourite for the Pouliches, but she's not well drawn (in stall 11 of 16).  Even so, she looks overpriced at around 6/1.  The favourite Golden Lilac commands great respect, but her winning time in the Prix de la Grotte was very slow (about 4 seconds slower than the colts' equivalent race, the Prix de Fontainebleau, on the same card).  It will be interesting to see how Rimth and the Guineas 3rd and 4th (Maqaasid and Nova Hawk) get on.  A shame that Memory is missing.
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